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At least 37 records · Page 2

TASKILLAN - A simulation to predict the validity of multiple resource models of aviation workload

A study to establish the validity of five predictive models of workload in the context of a controlled helicopter mission, TASKILLAN, is presented. Ten subjects performed simulations involving combinations of a low level flight task with three cognitive side tasks pertaining to navigation, spatial awareness, and computation. It is found that the best predictors of subjective workload are relativly simple models that integrate the total demands of task over time.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗

TASKILLAN - A simulation to predict the validity of multiple resource models of aviation workload

The extent to which flight simulation models of increasing complexity are successful in predicting pilot performance was investigated using four models of increasing sophistication addressed by the TASKILLAN (for task skill analysis) computer-generated helicopter simulation. At the simplest level of complexity was the total task model (Model T), followed by the demand model (Model D), the undifferentiated capacity model (Model U), and, ultimately, by the multiple resources model (Model M), which is at the highest level of sophistication addressed by the TASKILLAN project. It was found that the correlations between variables were higher with the two more sophisticated models (U and M), which impose a penalty for increased difficulty in time-sharing. The performance prediction was best with the Model U, while the best predictors of subjective measures were models D and M.

Larish, Inge A.↗

Improving Resource Selection and Scheduling Using Predictions

The introduction of computational grids has resulted in several new problems in the area of scheduling that can be addressed using predictions. The first problem is selecting where to run an application on the many resources available in a grid. Our approach to help address this problem is to provide predictions of when an application would start to execute if submitted to specific scheduled computer systems. The second problem is gaining simultaneous access to multiple computer systems so that distributed applications can be executed. We help address this problem by investigating how to support advance reservations in local scheduling systems. Our approaches to both of these problems are based on predictions for the execution time of applications on space- shared parallel computers. As a side effect of this work, we also discuss how predictions of application run times can be used to improve scheduling performance.

Smith, Warren↗

AgRISTARS - Plans and first-year achievements

The results of the agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing (AgRISTARS) program managed by the USDA for exploring the use of satellite data for domestic and global commodity information needs are discussed. The program was intended to gather early warning of changes affecting production and quality of commodities and renewable resources, for predicting commodity production, land use classification and quantification, for inventories and assessments of renewable resources, land productivity measurements, assessment of conservation practices, and for pollution detection and impact evaluation. Up to 20 crop/region combinations in 7 countries were covered by the experiments, which comprised NOAA 6 and Landsat data analyses. Attempts to reduce variances through improved machine classification techniques are reported, together with soil moisture profiling, and the use of airborne sensors for providing comparative data.

Hall, F. G.↗

Research in remote sensing of agriculture, earth resources, and man's environment

Progress is reported for several projects involving the utilization of LANDSAT remote sensing capabilities. Areas under study include crop inventory, crop identification, crop yield prediction, forest resources evaluation, land resources evaluation and soil classification. Numerical methods for image processing are discussed, particularly those for image enhancement and analysis.

Landgrebe, D. A.↗

Predit: A temporal predictive framework for scheduling systems

Scheduling can be formalized as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP). Within this framework activities belonging to a plan are interconnected via temporal constraints that account for slack among them. Temporal representation must include methods for constraints propagation and provide a logic for symbolic and numerical deductions. In this paper we describe a support framework for opportunistic reasoning in constraint directed scheduling. In order to focus the attention of an incremental scheduler on critical problem aspects, some discrete temporal indexes are presented. They are also useful for the prediction of the degree of resources contention. The predictive method expressed through our indexes can be seen as a Knowledge Source for an opportunistic scheduler with a blackboard architecture.

Paolucci, E.↗

Comparison of Multivariate Time Series Prediction Techniques for Emulating Noah-LSM Soil Moisture Outputs

Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.

Mitchell Dodson↗

Investigation using data from ERTS-1 to develop and implement utilization of living marine resources

The author has identified the following significant results. This 15-month ERTS-1 investigation produced correlations between satellite, aircraft, menhaden fisheries, and environmental sea truth data from the Mississippi Sound. Selected oceanographic, meteorological, and biological parameters were used as indirect indicators of the menhaden resource. Synoptic and near real time sea truth, fishery, satellite imagery, aircraft acquired multispectral, photo and thermal IR information were acquired as data inputs. Computer programs were developed to manipulate these data according to user requirements. Preliminary results indicate a correlation between backscattered light with chlorophyll concentration and water transparency in turbid waters. Eight empirical menhaden distribution models were constructed from combinations of four fisheries-significant oceanographic parameters: water depth, transparency, color, and surface salinity. The models demonstrated their potential for management utilization in areas of resource assessment, prediction, and monitoring.

Stevenson, W. H.↗

Mineralization through geologic time: Evolution of continental crust

In analogy to living systems, geologic entities (e.g., rocks, mineral deposits, tectonic realms and domains) are involved in the process of perpetual generation and destruction (birth/death cycles). This results in time distribution patterns akin to age structures in living populations and the systematics is amenable to treatment by the concepts of population dynamics. Utilizing this theoretical approach, the survivorship patterns for major realms of the plate tectonic system, for consitutent rocks, and for the entombed mineral resources are predicted. The present inventory encompasses global economic accumulations of metals by geologic age. The deposits of these metals were assigned to nine broad genetic categories, with an attempt to relate each category to tectonic setting within the framework of global plate tectonics.

Veizer, Jan↗

Snow cover, snowmelt and runoff in the Himalayan River basins

Not withstanding the seasonal vagaries of both rainfall amount and snowcover extent, the Himalayan rivers retain their basic perennial character. However, it is the component of snowmelt yield that accounts for some 60 to 70 percent of the total annual flow volumes from Hamilayan watersheds. On this large hydropotential predominantly depends the temporal performance of hydropower generation and major irrigation projects. The large scale effects of Himalayan snowcover on the hydrologic responses of a few selected catchments in western Himalayas was studied. The antecedent effects of snowcover area on long and short term meltwater yields can best be analyzed by developing appropriate hydrologic models forecasting the pattern of snowmelt as a function of variations in snowcover area. It is hoped that these models would be of practical value in the management of water resources. The predictability of meltwater for the entire snowmelt season was studied, as was the concurrent flow variation in adjacent watersheds, and their hydrologic significance. And the applicability of the Snowmelt-Runoff Model for real time forecast of daily discharges during the major part of the snowmelt season is examined.

Dey, B.↗

Selective simulation and selective sensor interpretation in monitoring

An approach to selective processing in monitoring is described. The approach is designed to provide informative feedback on whether a system is performing nominally in the current operating context without exceeding available resources for prediction and interpretation. At the center of the approach to selective sensor interpretation and simulation is a causal model of the system being monitored. The architecture of the monitoring system, called PREMON, is described as well as how causal models of physical systems are represented and simulated.

Doyle, Richard J.↗

Modeling strategic behavior in human-automation interaction - Why an 'aid' can (and should) go unused

Task-offload aids (e.g., an autopilot, an 'intelligent' assistant) can be selectively engaged by the human operator to dynamically delegate tasks to automation. Introducing such aids eliminates some task demands but creates new ones associated with programming, engaging, and disengaging the aiding device via an interface. The burdens associated with managing automation can sometimes outweigh the potential benefits of automation to improved system performance. Aid design parameters and features of the overall multitask context combine to determine whether or not a task-offload aid will effectively support the operator. A modeling and sensitivity analysis approach is presented that identifies effective strategies for human-automation interaction as a function of three task-context parameters and three aid design parameters. The analysis and modeling approaches provide resources for predicting how a well-adapted operator will use a given task-offload aid, and for specifying aid design features that ensure that automation will provide effective operator support in a multitask environment.

Kirlik, Alex↗

Visions 2025 and Linkage to NEXT

This talk will describe the progress to date on creating a science-driven vision for the NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) in the post-2010 period. This effort began in the Fall of 2001 by organizing five science workgroups with representatives from NASA, academia and other agencies: Long-Term Climate, Medium-Term Climate, Extreme Weather, Biosphere & Ecosystems, and Solid Earth, Ice Sheets, & Sea Level. Each workgroup was directed to scope out one Big Question, including not just the science but the observational and modeling requirements, the information system requirements, and the applications and benefits to society. This first set of five Big Questions is now in hand and has been presented to the ESE Director. It includes: water resources, intraseasonal predictability, tropical cyclogenesis, invasive species, and sea level. Each of these topics will be discussed briefly. How this effort fits into the NEXT vision exercise and into Administrator O'Keefe's new vision for NASA will also be discussed.

Wiscombe, W.↗

Health Management Applications for International Space Station

Traditional mission and vehicle management involves teams of highly trained specialists monitoring vehicle status and crew activities, responding rapidly to any anomalies encountered during operations. These teams work from the Mission Control Center and have access to engineering support teams with specialized expertise in International Space Station (ISS) subsystems. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) applications can significantly augment these capabilities by providing enhanced monitoring, prognostic and diagnostic tools for critical decision support and mission management. The Intelligent Systems Division of NASA Ames Research Center is developing many prototype applications using model-based reasoning, data mining and simulation, working with Mission Control through the ISHM Testbed and Prototypes Project. This paper will briefly describe information technology that supports current mission management practice, and will extend this to a vision for future mission control workflow incorporating new ISHM applications. It will describe ISHM applications currently under development at NASA and will define technical approaches for implementing our vision of future human exploration mission management incorporating artificial intelligence and distributed web service architectures using specific examples. Several prototypes are under development, each highlighting a different computational approach. The ISStrider application allows in-depth analysis of Caution and Warning (C&W) events by correlating real-time telemetry with the logical fault trees used to define off-nominal events. The application uses live telemetry data and the Livingstone diagnostic inference engine to display the specific parameters and fault trees that generated the C&W event, allowing a flight controller to identify the root cause of the event from thousands of possibilities by simply navigating animated fault tree models on their workstation. SimStation models the functional power flow for the ISS Electrical Power System and can predict power balance for nominal and off-nominal conditions. SimStation uses realtime telemetry data to keep detailed computational physics models synchronized with actual ISS power system state. In the event of failure, the application can then rapidly diagnose root cause, predict future resource levels and even correlate technical documents relevant to the specific failure. These advanced computational models will allow better insight and more precise control of ISS subsystems, increasing safety margins by speeding up anomaly resolution and reducing,engineering team effort and cost. This technology will make operating ISS more efficient and is directly applicable to next-generation exploration missions and Crew Exploration Vehicles.

Alena, Richard↗

An emulator for minimizing computer resources for finite element analysis

A computer code, SCOPE, has been developed for predicting the computer resources required for a given analysis code, computer hardware, and structural problem. The cost of running the code is a small fraction (about 3 percent) of the cost of performing the actual analysis. However, its accuracy in predicting the CPU and I/O resources depends intrinsically on the accuracy of calibration data that must be developed once for the computer hardware and the finite element analysis code of interest. Testing of the SCOPE code on the AMDAHL 470 V/8 computer and the ELAS finite element analysis program indicated small I/O errors (3.2 percent), larger CPU errors (17.8 percent), and negligible total errors (1.5 percent).

Melosh, R.↗

Theoretical predictions of volatile bearing phases and volatile resources in some carbonaceous chondrites

Results are presented from theoretical calculations to predict the modal abundances and compositions of the major mineral phases and the vapor phase that could develop in the bulk compositions of carbonaceous chondrites. The abundances and compositions are obtained as functions of temperature and pressure. The calculations are used to evaluate the volatile and mineralogical resource potential of C1 and C2 carbonaceous chondrites.

Ganguly, Jibamitra↗

Reliability Driven Space Logistics Demand Analysis

Accurate selection of the quantity of logistic support resources has a strong influence on mission success, system availability and the cost of ownership. At the same time the accurate prediction of these resources depends on the accurate prediction of the reliability measures of the items involved. This paper presents a method for the advanced and accurate calculation of the reliability measures of complex space systems which are the basis for the determination of the demands for logistics resources needed during the operational life or mission of space systems. The applicability of the method presented is demonstrated through several examples.

Knezevic, J.↗

Theoretical predictions of volatile bearing phases and volatile resources in some carbonaceous chondrites

Carbonaceous chondrites are usually believed to be the primary constituents of near-Earth asteroids and Phobos and Diemos, and are potential resources of fuels which may be exploited for future planetary missions. The nature and abundances are calculated of the major volatile bearing and other phases, including the vapor phase that should form in C1 and C2 type carbonaceous chondrites as functions of pressure and temperature. The results suggest that talc, antigorite plus or minus magnesite are the major volatile bearing phases and are stable below 400 C at 1 bar in these chondritic compositions. Simulated heating of a kilogram of C2 chondrite at fixed bulk composition between 400 and 800 C at 1 bar yields about 135 gm of volatile, which is made primarily of H2O, H2, CH4, CO2 and CO. The relative abundances of these volatile species change as functions of temperature, and on a molar basis, H2 becomes the most dominant species above 500 C. In contrast, Cl chondrites yield about 306 gm of volatile under the same condition, which consist almost completely of 60 wt percent H2O and 40 wt percent CO2. Preliminary kinetic considerations suggest that equilibrium dehydration of hydrous phyllosilicates should be attainable within a few hours at 600 C. These results provide the framework for further analyses of the volatile and economic resource potentials of carbonaceous chondrites.

Ganguly, Jibamitra↗