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At least 37 records · Page 2

Use of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals to Evaluate Model Estimates by the Australian Water Resources Assessment System

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates retrievals from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were compared to TWS modeled by the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. The aim was to test whether differences could be attributed and used to identify model deficiencies. Data for 2003 2010 were decomposed into the seasonal cycle, linear trends and the remaining de-trended anomalies before comparing. AWRA tended to have smaller seasonal amplitude than GRACE. GRACE showed a strong (greater than 15 millimeter per year) drying trend in northwest Australia that was associated with a preceding period of unusually wet conditions, whereas weaker drying trends in the southern Murray Basin and southwest Western Australia were associated with relatively dry conditions. AWRA estimated trends were less negative for these regions, while a more positive trend was estimated for areas affected by cyclone Charlotte in 2009. For 2003-2009, a decrease of 7-8 millimeter per year (50-60 cubic kilometers per year) was estimated from GRACE, enough to explain 6-7% of the contemporary rate of global sea level rise. This trend was not reproduced by the model. Agreement between model and data suggested that the GRACE retrieval error estimates are biased high. A scaling coefficient applied to GRACE TWS to reduce the effect of signal leakage appeared to degrade quantitative agreement for some regions. Model aspects identified for improvement included a need for better estimation of rainfall in northwest Australia, and more sophisticated treatment of diffuse groundwater discharge processes and surface-groundwater connectivity for some regions.

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.↗

Oakridge Geothermal Resources Assessment

Through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (LEAP), NREL provided technical assistance to a coalition of stakeholders from Oakridge, Oregon. The coalition included community-based non-profit organizations, the city government, the local utility, and others. Technical assistance provides analysis and information to support Oakridge stakeholders with their goals to increase energy reliability and resilience in the community, while promoting economic development. The Geothermal Resource Assessment provides technical analysis related to the geothermal resource in the Oakridge area, possible technology applications, and information related to further geothermal exploration. Technical analysis includes a review of a previous geothermal study conducted for Oakridge, thermal modeling to estimate reservoir temperatures, and technoeconomic simulation of a combined heat and power application in the Oakridge area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Combined XRD/XRF Instrument for Lunar Resource Assessment

Robotic surface missions to the Moon should be capable of measuring mineral as well as chemical abundances in regolith samples. Although much is already known about the lunar regolith, our data are far from comprehensive. Most of the regolith samples returned to Earth for analysis had lost the upper surface, or it was intermixed with deeper regolith. This upper surface is the part of the regolith most recently exposed to the solar wind; as such it will be important to resource assessment. In addition, it may be far easier to mine and process the uppermost few centimeters of regolith over a broad area than to engage in deep excavation of a smaller area. The most direct means of analyzing the regolith surface will be by studies in situ. In addition, the analysis of the impact-origin regolith surfaces, the Fe-rich glasses of mare pyroclastic deposits, are of resource interest, but are inadequately known; none of the extensive surface-exposed pyroclastic deposits of the Moon have been systematically sampled, although we know something about such deposits from the Apollo 17 site. Because of the potential importance of pyroclastic deposits, methods to quantify glass as well as mineral abundances will be important to resource evaluation. Combined x ray diffraction (XRD) and x ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis will address many resource characterization problems on the Moon. XRF methods are valuable for obtaining full major-element abundances with high precision. Such data, collected in parallel with quantitative mineralogy, permit unambiguous determination of both mineral and chemical abundances where concentrations are high enough to be of resource grade. Collection of both XRD and XRF data from a single sample provides simultaneous chemical and mineralogic information. These data can be used to correlate quantitative chemistry and mineralogy as a set of simultaneous linear equations, the solution of which can lead to full characterization of the sample. The use of Rietveld methods for XRD data analysis can provide a powerful tool for quantitative mineralogy and for obtaining crystallographic data on complex minerals.

Vaniman, D. T.↗

The Quickest, Lowest-cost Lunar Resource Assessment Program: Integrated High-tech Earth-based Astronomy

Science and technology applications for the Moon have not fully kept pace with technical advancements in sensor development and analytical information extraction capabilities. Appropriate unanswered questions for the Moon abound, but until recently there has been little motivation to link sophisticated technical capabilities with specific measurement and analysis projects. Over the last decade enormous technical progress has been made in the development of (1) CCD photometric array detectors; (2) visible to near-infrared imaging spectrometers; (3)infrared spectroscopy; (4) high-resolution dual-polarization radar imaging at 3.5, 12, and 70 cm; and equally important (5) data analysis and information extraction techniques using compact powerful computers. Parts of each of these have been tested separately, but there has been no programmatic effort to develop and optimize instruments to meet lunar science and resource assessment needs (e.g., specific wavelength range, resolution, etc.) nor to coordinate activities so that the symbiotic relation between different kinds of data can be fully realized. No single type of remotely acquired data completely characterizes the lunar environment, but there has been little opportunity for integration of diverse advanced sensor data for the Moon. Two examples of technology concepts for lunar measurements are given. Using VIS/near-IR spectroscopy, the mineral composition of surface material can be derived from visible and near-infrared radiation reflected from the surface. The surface and subsurface scattering properties of the Moon can be analyzed using radar backscattering imaging.

Pieters, Carle M.↗

Organic Waste Resource Assessment for the Detroit Region

This study summarizes major sources of organic wastes in the Detroit region to (1) characterize target feedstock magnitudes and distribution in support of techno-economic analysis (TEA), and (2) guide the design of blended feedstock conversion experiments using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL). Feedstocks considered in this review include municipal wastewater sludge solids (untreated) and scum; bulk municipal solid waste (MSW); the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OF-MSW); residential food waste, non-residential food waste including institutional, industrial, and commercial (IIC) sources; confined animal manures (i.e., lactating dairy, feedlot beef, and market swine); waste fats, oils and greases (FOG); agricultural residues; forest residues. The scope of the investigation was limited to existing modeled or publicly available reporting datasets. Bulk MSW data were only collected for context and to generate estimates of OF-MSW by waste type and should not be included in total organic waste estimates. Because the TEA analysis boundary was not defined prior to conducting the resource assessment, the data are summarized within six spatial contexts (boundaries), including (1) city of Detroit (census); (2) Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) service area; “Tri-county” urban area (census); “Metro” Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (census); Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor Combined Statistical Area (CSA) (census); and the Michigan Councils of Government (COG) Region-1. All of the spatial contexts are entirely within the State of Michigan, and some overlap one another. A broader context could be developed to include data from surrounding states or Canada.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Application of Nuclear Well Logging Techniques to Lunar Resource Assessment

The use of neutron and gamma ray measurements for the analysis of material composition has become well established in the last 40 years. Schlumberger has pioneered the use of this technology for logging wells drilled to produce oil and gas, and for this purpose has developed neutron generators that allow measurements to be made in deep (5000 m) boreholes under adverse conditions. We also make ruggedized neutron and gamma ray detector packages that can be used to make reliable measurements on the drill collar of a rotating drill string while the well is being drilled, where the conditions are severe. Modern nuclear methods used in logging measure rock formation parameters like bulk density and porosity, fluid composition, and element abundances by weight including hydrogen concentration. The measurements are made with high precision and accuracy. These devices (well logging sondes) share many of the design criteria required for remote sensing in space; they must be small, light, rugged, and able to perform reliably under adverse conditions. We see a role for the adaptation of this technology to lunar or planetary resource assessment missions.

Albats, P.↗

A Remote Laser Mass Spectrometer for Lunar Resource Assessment

The use of lasers as a source of excitation for surface mass spectroscopy has been investigated for some time. Since the laser can be focused to a small spot with intensity, it can vaporize and accelerate atoms of material. Using this phenomenon with a time-of-flight mass spectrometer allows a surface elemental mass analysis of a small region with each laser pulse. While the technique has been well developed for Earth applications, space applications are less developed. NASA Langley recently began a research program to investigate the use of a laser to create ions from the lunar surface and to analyze the ions at an orbiting spacecraft. A multijoule, Q-switched Nd:YAG laser would be focused to a small spot on the lunar surface, creating a dense plasma. This plasma would eject high-energy ions, as well as neutrals, electrons, and photons. An experiment is being set up to determine the characteristics of such a laser mass spectrometer at long flight distances. This experiment will determine the character of a future flight instrument for lunar resource assessment.

Deyoung, R. J.↗

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Lunar Resource Assessment: Strategies for Surface Exploration

Use of the indigenous resources of space to support long-term human presence is an essential element of the settlement of other planetary bodies. We are in a very early stage of understanding exactly how and under what circumstances space resources will become important. The materials and processes to recover them that we now think are critical may not ultimately be the raison d'etre for a resource utilization program. However, the need for strategic thinking proceeds in parallel with efforts to implement such plans and it is not too soon to begin thinking how we could and should use the abundant resources of materials and energy available from the Moon. The following commodities from the Moon are discussed: (1) bulk regolith, for shielding and construction on the lunar surface (ultimately for export to human-tended stations in Earth-Moon space), and (2) oxygen and hydrogen, for propellant and life support.

Spudis, Paul D.↗

Economic, Greenhouse Gas, and Resource Assessment for Fuel and Protein Production from Microalgae: 2022 Algae Harmonization Update

This report presents an updated "harmonization study" documenting the collaborative analysis of microalgae cultivation and conversion to fuels and products. Four national laboratory modeling teams reconvened to investigate the resource, economic, and environmental sustainability implications of integrated systems encompassing large-scale algae farms and conversion biorefineries. Relative to prior harmonization analyses conducted by these partners, the present effort focuses on more near-term deployment potential based on the use of nutrient-replete, high-protein algal biomass compositions (more readily achievable today without sacrificing cultivation productivity), though this also incurs challenges in lower fuel yields and accordingly higher costs and carbon intensities for the overall integrated systems. Additionally, the present assessment adds further granularity around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sourcing and transport via carbon capture of nearby point sources, as well as handling of high-saline cultivation media and resultant blowdown/disposal processing. Finally, this assessment focuses on conversion opportunities to produce both fuel (prioritizing sustainable aviation fuel, in this case via hydrothermal liquefaction) and protein products for the food and feed markets, recognizing growing needs for such products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

High-resolution Earth-based lunar radar studies: Applications to lunar resource assessment

The lunar regolith will most likely be a primary raw material for lunar base construction and resource extraction. High-resolution radar observations of the Moon provide maps of radar backscatter that have intensity variations generally controlled by the local slope, material, and structural properties of the regolith. The properties that can be measured by the radar system include the dielectric constant, density, loss tangent, and wavelength scale roughness. The radar systems currently in operation at several astronomical observatories provide the ability to image the lunar surface at spatial resolutions approaching 30 m at 3.8 cm and 12.6 cm wavelengths and approximately 500 m at 70 cm wavelength. The radar signal penetrates the lunar regolith to a depth of 10-20 wavelengths so the measured backscatter contains contributions from the vacuum-regolith interface and from wavelength-scale heterogeneities in the electrical properties of the subsurface material. The three wavelengths, which are sensitive to different scale structures and scattering volumes, provide complementary information on the regolith properties. Aims of the previous and future observations include (1) analysis of the scattering properties associated with fresh impact craters, impact crater rays, and mantled deposits; (2) analysis of high-incidence-angle observations of the lunar mare to investigate measurement of the regolith dielectric constant and hence porosity; (3) investigation of interferometric techniques using two time-delayed observations of the same site, observations that require a difference in viewing geometry less than 0.05 deg and, hence, fortuitous alignment of the Earth-Moon system when visible from Arecibo Observatory.

Stacy, N. J. S.↗