Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Reliability model reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

High-Performance Computing Based EMT Simulation: Power Grid with IBRs

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of power grids with high-fidelity models of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is time-consuming and difficult to scale. The necessity for high-fidelity models of IBRs that incorporate the dynamics of individual inverters within IBRs has been showcased in recent studies. These studies focused on events with partial power reduction in each IBR during a transmission line fault in the power grid. These types of events have been documented in multiple North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) reports in the past decade. It is imperative then to find solutions to speed-up EMT simulations and scale the size of the region with IBRs studied in EMT simulations. In this paper, a combination of numerical simulation algorithms with high-performance computing techniques are employed in discretization and linear solvers employed in the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform for power grid with IBRs. For ease of scalability, modular and object-oriented programming is used as these techniques are implemented. Additionally, automation software is developed to convert legacy software codes to the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform. Thereafter, this platform is evaluated on multi-core central processing units (CPUs). Finally, scale-up tests are performed to showcase the scalability that is possible.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrical and Spectroscopic Diagnostics as Real‐Time Metallization Indicators During Hydrogen Plasma Smelting Reduction

This study investigates the hydrogen (H 2 ) plasma reduction process of direct-reduced-iron-grade hematite ore at different arc currents (100–200 A) in an Ar–5% H 2 atmosphere at 0.9 bar. Iron ore samples (10 g) were exposed to a plasma arc, and the reduction/metallization kinetics were analyzed over fixed time intervals. Electrical diagnostics revealed that the arc voltage exhibited takeover-mode oscillations which were suppressed at higher currents due to stronger electromagnetic coupling. The voltage dropped significantly as metallization approached ∼95%, linked to increased electrical conductivity of the metallic iron (Fe) in the ore as well as Fe evaporation into the arc, lowering the arc resistance. A simplified Elenbaas–Heller model supported this explanation and confirmed that Fe vapor concentration enhances plasma conductivity. Optical emission spectroscopy focused on the plasma–metal interface revealed the plasma's optically thick nature, as the primary Fe I 526.95 nm line experienced self-absorption. However, weaker Fe I lines (404.58, 438.35 nm) normalized to Ar I 696.5 nm provided a reliable proxy for metallization. These diagnostics, electrical and spectroscopic, effectively track metallization in real-time during H 2 plasma smelting reduction.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid PDES Simulation of HPC Networks Using Zombie Packets

Although high-fidelity network simulations have proven to be reliable and cost-effective tools to peer into architectural questions for high-performance computing (HPC) networks, they incur a high resource cost. The time spent in simulating a single millisecond of network traffic in the highest detail can take hours, even for static, well-behaved traffic patterns such as uniform random. Surrogate models offer a significant reduction in runtime, yet they cannot serve as complete replacements and should only be used when appropriate. Thus, there is a need for hybrid modeling, where high-fidelity simulation and surrogates run side-by-side. Here, we present a surrogate model for HPC networks in which: packets bypass the network, while the network state is left untouched, i.e., suspended. To bypass the network, we use historical data to estimate the arrival time at which every packet should be scheduled at; to suspend the network, all in-flight packets are scheduled to arrive at their destinations, and are kept in the system to awaken as zombies when switching back to high-fidelity. Speedup for a hybrid model is relative to the proportion of surrogate to high-fidelity. This light-weight surrogate obtained up to 76× speedup. Keeping the zombies in the network showed an increase in the accuracy of the high-fidelity simulation on restart when compared to restarting the network from an empty state.

HPC networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida

Ocean current energy technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding zero-cost ocean current energy to each. The Resource Planning Model, a tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current energy. The first scenario is a base case and assumes existing policies in which the addition of ocean current energy does not retire fossil-based technologies but variable generation technologies. In the second scenario, solar and storage technologies are lower cost, and the addition of ocean current generation enables those technologies along with wind to retire existing natural gas units earlier. In the third scenario, which requires a 95% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 levels by 2050, ocean current energy can play a role in decarbonization along with other variable generation technologies. This analysis is intended to inform stakeholders on the opportunity, potential challenges, and overall value to the grid of ocean current technology from a reliability and availability focused perspective.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a New Approach for Entrainment and Detrainment Rate Estimation

Entrainment and detrainment rates (ε and δ) constitute the most critical free parameters in mass flux schemes commonly employed for cumulus parameterizations. Recently, Zhu et al. (2021) introduced a new approach that utilizes aircraft observations to simultaneously estimate ε and δ for cumulus clouds, overcoming the limitation of other observation-based approaches that solely yield ε without offering insights into δ. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of this new approach. First, evaluation using an Explicit Mixing Parcel Model demonstrates the capability of the new approach to back-calculate predetermined ε and δ based on the physical properties before and after the entrainment mixing. Second, evaluation using large-eddy simulations illustrates that the new approach yields consistent ε and δ profiles compared to the traditional approach. Sensitivity tests indicate a weak sensitivity of the estimated δ with the new approach to the entrained air source. A decrease in the proportion of cloudy air in the assumed detrained air leads to a reduction in the estimated δ, while ε remains unaffected. Finally, the most appropriate assumptions for entrained and detrained air are discussed. Estimating ε for cumulus parameterizations involves acquiring ambient air more than 500 m away from the cloud edge as entrained air. Due to implicit mean field approximations in the traditional approach, determining the optimal assumption for detrained air properties proves challenging. Finally, this study confirms the reliability of the new approach in estimating ε and δ, providing confidence in its application to extensive observational data and advancement in parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of renewable energy generation and storage systems for emissions reduction in an islanded campus microgrid

Microgrid connected building communities are projected to play an integral part in the clean energy transition. These types of systems, when integrated with distributed energy resources (DERs) such as combined heat and power (CHP), district heating and cooling, renewable generation, and energy storage, can provide clean, reliable power to critical facilities and vulnerable communities. The intermittent nature of renewable generation is a challenge when integrating renewables into any grid system, but particularly in islanded microgrids. The University of Texas at Austin (UT) operates an islanded microgrid powered by a CHP plant, while also utilizing district heating and cooling systems and thermal energy storage (TES). High fidelity operating data was used to develop a validated reduced order model of UT’s integrated campus energy systems to serve as a testbed for use in a case study. Hypothetical renewable energy installations on land owned by UT in west Texas were modeled and integrated into the validated campus models along with battery energy storage (BES). Simulations showed that a combination of renewable energy from wind, and optimally controlled 24-hour thermal and battery storage systems could reduce carbon dioxide emissions on campus by 45.4%. The additional retrofit of burner systems to utilize hydrogen natural gas blends resulted in an overall annual emissions reduction of 54.7%. Carbon capture and storage eliminated the majority of the remaining emissions with increased plant energy expenditure. The presented simulations display the practical limitations of a CHP system complemented by renewable generation and short-term storage in eliminating emissions. Furthermore, results highlight the need for further research and development in long duration storage technologies and hydrogen fueled turbines to increase penetration of renewable energy and reduce emissions.

CHP↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interface and Thermophysical Properties of R 32 Refrigerant

Driven by the urgent demand for efficient cooling in microelectronics and advanced thermal management systems, difluoromethane (R32/CH 2 F 2 ) has emerged as a promising candidate owing to its favorable thermophysical properties, including high heat transfer efficiency and low viscosity. While bulk properties such as density, viscosity, and thermal conductivity have been widely studied, interfacial properties, including surface tension and interfacial thickness, remain comparatively underexplored, despite their importance in phase-transition dynamics. Here, we perform molecular dynamics (MD) simulations from 180 to 300 K using an optimized transferable force field for fluoropropenes with enhanced electrostatics to assess both bulk and interfacial behavior of R32. Simulations reproduced density within ±2.1%, viscosity within 3.05%, and thermal conductivity within 7.41% of NIST reference data. Heat capacities (C p and C v ) were predicted within 5%. For interfacial properties, surface tension trends were reproduced within 13.58% deviation, and the vapor–liquid coexistence curve closely matched reference data, yielding a critical temperature of 345.7 K (1.6% deviation) and a critical density of 0.397 g/cm 3 (6.4% deviation). Importantly, the vapor–liquid interface exhibited pronounced temperature-dependent broadening across the 180–290 K range. This behavior correlates with increasing molecular kinetic energy, reduction in intermolecular cohesive interactions, and a progressive loss of preferential dipole alignment, which collectively enhance thermal fluctuation amplitudes at elevated temperatures. These validated results provide predictive molecular-level insights, particularly for interfacial properties that remain less characterized. By reducing property prediction errors in key parameters such as critical temperature, this work provides reliable inputs for heat-exchanger and system models. Such correlations can support optimized component sizing, improved performance, and reduced refrigerant charge. Beyond R32, the methodology offers a transferable framework for blended and next-generation low-GWP refrigerants, contributing to sustainable thermal management aligned with the 2027 EU F-Gas regulation and 2030 Kigali Amendment.

Fluids↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of the light detection system of the ICARUS detector

The ICARUS detector, a key component of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermi National Acelerator Laboratory (FNAL), is a 600-ton Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) equipped with a Light Detection System (LDS) that uses 360 Hamamatsu R5912-MOD 8-inch photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), specifically designed to operate under cryogenic conditions ($\sim 87 \ K$). These PMTs feed the trigger signal to the readout, improve the spatial and timing resolution of the events, and contribute to cosmic rays mitigation. During operation at FNAL, a progressive degradation in the PMT gain was observed. We developed an experimental setup to investigate the temperature dependence of PMT performance. Gain measurements were carried out from room temperature to $-70 ^\circ C$ using an environmental chamber. The results show that, while the PMTs exhibit stable performance at room temperature, a significant and irreversible reduction in gain emerges at lower temperatures. Al though $-70 ^\circ C$ remains above the liquid argon temperatures, the trend clearly reveals a gain-sensitive degradation mechanism. A simplified physical model was developed to reproduce and interpret the observed behavior. Based on these findings, a series of mitigation strategies were implemented in the ICARUS detector to preserve PMT performance and ensure reliable operation under cryogenic conditions.

Saia, C. [Catania Astrophys. Observ.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open data sets for assessing photovoltaic system reliability

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a cornerstone of renewable energy strategies, particularly due to the significant reduction in solar power costs over the past decade. However, the long-term reliability of PV installations presents a persistent challenge, requiring the development of advanced monitoring and predictive maintenance strategies. A wide range of data types is used to evaluate the health of PV systems, including environmental conditions, electrical performance, and inspection imagery. These data enable methodologies such as machine learning (ML) models for lifetime prediction and computer vision techniques for defect detection. However, the acquisition of high-quality and comprehensive data is difficult, particularly in terms of long-term consistency and data variety. Publicly available data sets serve as valuable resources for addressing these challenges, but they often suffer from fragmentation and are difficult to access. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing open-source data sets related to PV degradation, analyzing their features, functionalities, and potential applications. We categorize these data sets based on the specific aspects of PV system information they cover, such as environmental conditions, operational monitoring, image inspection and module materials, and propose relevant tools and ML models for processing them. In addition, we propose practices for future data collection and usage, while also discussing potential directions in data-driven research. Our aim is to enhance data utilization and publication among researchers and industry professionals, promoting a deeper understanding of the role of data in enhancing the performance and durability of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems

Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uniform secondary current distribution at disk electrodes under Tafel kinetics enabled by concentric current-shielding rings

Non-uniform secondary current distribution at rotating disk electrodes (RDE) is a common problem when using resistive electrolyte media or large applied currents. In a recent publication, we have shown that auxiliary electrodes such as the ring of a rotating ring disk electrode (RRDE) can help suppress current non-uniformities at the disk enabling reliable electroanalytical measurements. However, this previous work considered linear kinetics where current distribution non-uniformities were moderate. In the present contribution, we consider current distribution non-uniformities encountered under Tafel kinetics. We show, for the case of 2,5-dihydroxy-1,4-benzoquinone (DHBQ) reduction, that optimally chosen ring conditions serve to provide effective shielding at the disk edge rendering the overall disk current distribution to be uniform. Numerical modeling and scaling analysis (using the Wagner number) are presented to aid a user in determining the optimal ring current density for achieving uniform disk current distribution under Tafel kinetics. This approach is especially useful when studying soluble-soluble redox transitions for which, unlike deposit distribution in electrodeposition, the current distribution non-uniformity is not visually apparent.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-term thermal aging behavior and strength reduction in a laser powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

The long-term thermal stability of structural alloys is essential for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of nuclear reactors and other power plants. While extensive research has explored the effects of thermal aging on conventional stainless steels, the behavior of additively manufactured (AM) alloys remains less understood. This study examines the thermal aging response of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel (SS) at temperatures ranging from 550 °C to 750 °C over durations of up to 10,000 h (approximately 1.14 years). Advanced characterization techniques, including electron microscopy and synchrotron X-ray diffraction, were used to investigate dislocation recovery and phase evolution. Based on these findings, a time-temperature-precipitation (TTP) diagram was developed for LPBF 316H SS, revealing a 10- to100-fold acceleration in precipitation kinetics compared to wrought 316H SS. A physics-informed model was calibrated using the short-term experimental data, enabling predictions of average precipitate sizes, volume fractions of M 23 C 6 and Laves phases, and changes in molybdenum solute concentration for aging up to 1 × 10⁶ h (114 years). These microstructural insights were further utilized to estimate yield strength and extrapolate strength reduction factors over the extended aging period. Despite the accelerated aging kinetics, LPBF 316H SS demonstrated superior yield strength retention compared to its wrought counterpart. In conclusion, this study establishes a framework for evaluating long-term performance using short-term experimental data and supports the accelerated qualification of AM materials for high-temperature structural applications.

Laser powder bed fusion↗
DOE OSTI2026

An adaptive model-free robotic force control strategy for hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation of floating offshore wind turbines

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) - a cyber-physical testing approach - promises to enhance the simulation fidelity of the model-scale experiments used to prototype floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). In hydrodynamic RTHS (hydro-RTHS), actuators emulate aerodynamic forces on model-scale FOWT specimens subjected to physical waves in a hydrodynamic laboratory. Robotic arms are promising candidates for actuation in hydro-RTHS due to their compact multi-degree-of-freedom (DOF) capabilities. Unlike classical RTHS for seismic applications, which typically relies on displacement control, hydro-RTHS requires 6-DOF force control on newly designed floating prototypes in a model-scale setting, which presents significant challenges, including modeling uncertainties, directional asymmetry, configuration drift, bandwidth limitations, and time-varying delays. To mitigate these constraints without extensive pre-test calibration, this study proposes an adaptive model-free robotic force control strategy that combines task-space explicit force control with a secondary joint-space pose-keeping task. The Adaptive Feedforward Compensator (AFC) is integrated into the force control loop to compensate for time-varying delay. Experimental testing was conducted using a Franka Emika Panda robotic arm with a 1:50 scale FOWT specimen under operational wind and wave conditions. Results demonstrate stable and consistent 6-DOF force tracking. Effective delay compensation was observed, with low-frequency delay reductions ranging from 71.4% to 91.8% and improvements in low-frequency surge force tracking of 25.0% to 52.1%. This study enhances robotic actuation performance in hydro-RTHS and introduces a force control strategy that supports reliable robotic operation in uncertain floating environments. Future work will explore disturbance-observer mechanisms to further enhance wave rejection capabilities under extreme wind and wave conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗