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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding and Modeling Pooled Rideshare Acceptance: Influential Factors, Preferred User Experiences, and Implications

This dissertation explores factors influencing pooled rideshare (PR) adoption to provide actionable insights for transportation network companies (TNCs) and policymakers. PR allows travelers to share rides with unknown passengers, offering benefits such as cost reduction and congestion relief. However, adoption remains limited due to safety concerns, privacy issues, and trust in rideshare platforms. A national U.S. survey with 5,385 respondents examined transportation preferences and barriers to PR adoption. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified five key factors influencing PR consideration—safety, service experience, privacy, traffic/environment, and time/cost. Second factor analyses examined ways to optimize PR experiences, revealing four factors—comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. Privacy concerns, for instance, using regression analysis, were found to reduce the likelihood of PR adoption by 77%, and convenience had the potential to increase it by 156%. The Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM), based on the Technology Acceptance Model, assessed the impact of these factors using the Structural Equation Model (SEM). Privacy, safety, trust, and convenience had a large effect (Cohen's f2 > 0.35) on PR acceptance, while multigroup analyses (PRAMMA) explored 16 demographic variables such as gender, generation, and income, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies. Based on all the statistical analysis and workshops using descriptive statistics, 95 actionable recommendations were made from the riders' perspective. Findings highlight the importance of customized services, user experience improvements, and policy interventions to enhance PR adoption. This dissertation provides a roadmap for future research and policy development, ensuring evidence-based, practical strategies to improve PR services in the U.S. and beyond.

Gangadharaiah, Rakesh↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle bias in generalized least squares regression through eigenspectrum analysis

Certain correlation structures in the data covariance matrix (DCM) used for generalized least squares (GLS) regression can result in biased estimates, commonly known in the field of nuclear data evaluation as Peele’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP). This article introduces a generative, forward modeling framework within which the PPP bias is characterized through an eigenspectrum analysis of the DCM. This analysis highlights the root cause of the bias, generalizes the problem beyond the nuclear data field, and provides insight to the problem regimes where it can occur. What follows is an understanding that the bias can show up for any experimental neutron time-of-flight data for which systematic uncertainties have been quantified. Lastly, a discussion of the adaptation of cross validation approaches that require pre-whitening to incorporate the known ‘fix’ to the PPP bias in the GLS estimator.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elongated particles in flow: commentary on small-angle scattering investigations

Here, this work thoroughly examines several analytical tools, each possessing a different level of mathematical intricacy, for the purpose of characterizing the orientation distribution function of elongated objects under flow. Our investigation places an emphasis on connecting the orientation distribution to the small-angle scattering spectra measured experimentally. The diverse range of mathematical approaches investigated herein provide insights into the flow behavior of elongated particles from different perspectives and serve as powerful tools for elucidating the complex interplay between flow dynamics and the orientation distribution function.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability: Supporting Data and Code

This repository contains R code and associated datasets for reproducing the analysis described in the manuscript titled “Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability” (DOI: 10.1029/2024JG008604). The provided scripts facilitate a comprehensive analysis of snow depth variability influenced by microtopography and vegetation distribution in a subarctic watershed. Included datasets are high-resolution spatial maps of snow depth, terrain elevation, vegetation height, and distance from shrubs taller than 1 meter, all formatted as text files (.txt). These data are fully describe in doi:10.15485/2316038. Users can adapt the provided R scripts to accommodate different data formats or larger spatial domains, noting that some output files may require modification due to their size.The code includes implementations for boosted regression tree analysis adapted from methods outlined in Elith et al. (2008). Users interested in understanding or modeling landscape-scale snow distribution patterns, particularly in Arctic or subarctic ecosystems, will find this package useful. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring biofiber properties and their influence on biocomposite tensile properties

Biofibers serve as effective reinforcements for neat polylactic acid (PLA) in biocomposites, offering an attractive opportunity to decarbonize the manufacturing sector of the United States by displacing fossil-based reinforcement fibers such as carbon fibers. Also, biofiber production can stimulate economic growth in rural economies, fueling sustainable development. PLA resins are commonly compounded with biofibers to create biocomposites suitable for additive manufacturing. PLA-biofiber composites often exhibit better overall material properties than neat (pure) PLA, but the associations between biofiber properties and the material properties of their biocomposites remain largely unexplored. Hence, this research delves into a comprehensive exploration of diverse biofibers, scrutinizing their physical and chemical attributes, including size, shape, ash content and biochemical composition. The study meticulously analyzes the flow properties of each biofiber and elucidates the ultimate tensile strengths and Young's modulus of corresponding biocomposite samples. Noteworthy correlations between biofiber and biocomposite tensile properties are uncovered, shedding light on critical interrelationships. The study introduces an approach employing regression models to predict the ultimate tensile strength and Young's modulus of biocomposites. These models, validated with a cross-validation technique, exhibit remarkable predictive accuracy, particularly in estimating ultimate tensile strength. © 2024 Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC and The Author(s). Polymer International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the viscoplastic response of a crystallizing fluoropolymer using transient network theory

We employ a molecular theory of dynamic polymer networks to describe the viscoplastic response of rubbery FK-800, a thermoplastic copolymer of chlorotrifluoroethylene and vinylidene fluoride, over a broad range of thermal histories. The kinetics of crystallization at different annealing temperatures was modeled using a modified Avrami equation, whose parameters were found to evolve through simple relationships over the full temperature range of the rubbery state. By fitting experimental compression data, we discovered predictable trends for the physical parameters in our mechanical model over its full range of crystallinities (up to ≈20%) and provided insights based on molecular-level physics to justify them. Using this, an end-to-end model was developed to predict the yielding and post-yield behavior of rubbery FK-800 for arbitrary thermal histories. The model successfully predicted the highly nonlinear evolution of characteristic mechanical signatures (stiffness, yield point, post-yield drop) throughout the crystallization process. A statistical analysis of variance test was employed to determine that the measured variations in the mechanical behavior of rubbery FK-800 are primarily dictated by its fractional crystallinity, regardless of its exact thermal history.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Asymptotic inconsistency of the cumulative algorithm for laser-induced damage probability analysis

The “cumulative algorithm” is a data analysis method that has been proposed to provide an objective, nonparametric determination of laser-induced damage probability as a function of fluence from experimental data that contain both damaged sites and undamaged sites (i.e., 1-on-1 or S-on-1 testing protocols). In this work, the limitations of this approach are explored by considering the asymptotic limit of a large number of test sites. It is shown that the cumulative algorithm does not converge to the true probability distribution and significantly underestimates the damage probability near the damage onset. Here, based on the results of this work, the cumulative algorithm is not recommended for accurate estimation of damage probability.

Computational methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of intermittent filaments in the scrape-off layer of NSTX

Filamentary structures naturally arise from background turbulence in the scrape-off layer (SOL) of plasmas, leading to significant particle and heat transport that can degrade overall plasma confinement. This enhanced transport can contribute to unacceptably high heat loads on plasma-facing components. As such, understanding the physics of SOL plasma filaments is critical for predicting and mitigating their effects in future fusion devices. On the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX), plasma filaments—commonly referred to as “blobs”—were investigated using the gas-puff imaging (GPI) diagnostic in the edge and SOL regions. The analysis involved identifying, segmenting, and tracking the characteristic contours of the blobs in each frame of the GPI video sequences. Their evolution was characterized through shape descriptors, velocity, and angular velocity derived from their contour coordinates. The results indicate that as the blob area increases, their shapes become more concave and less circular, suggesting reduced structural stability in larger blobs. This result aligns with previous theoretical results where it was shown that larger blobs are more susceptible to instabilities [Krasheninnikov et al., J. Plasma Phys. 74, 679–717 (2008) and D'Ippolito et al., Phys. Plasmas 18, 060501 (2011)]. A positive correlation was observed between radial velocity and radial position, suggesting radially outward acceleration of the filaments, potentially driven by decreasing viscous drag toward the far SOL. Interestingly, blobs in background SOL turbulence exhibited minimal spinning in contrast to filaments originating from edge localized modes, which show substantial rotation during their paths [Lampert et al., Phys. Plasmas 29, 102502 (2022)]. Statistical analysis of the solidity and total curvature shape descriptors, along with their temporal evolution, revealed relatively broad, near-Gaussian distributions. This suggests that blob morphology is strongly influenced by stochastic turbulent processes in the surrounding plasma environment. Blob parameters were also compared with bulk plasma and radial profile measurements. Notable trends were found between blob rotation and poloidal velocity with collisionality and line-integrated density. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of blob dynamics and provide valuable insights for refining SOL turbulence models.

Covariance and correlation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parametric and Nonparametric Models of U.S. Cost Overruns for Nuclear Power Plants

This study presents new data-driven models to estimate the effect of capacity on the percentage of cost overruns in the United States for nuclear power plant construction projects before and after the Three Mile Island accident. Parametric and nonparametric models have been developed that describe the significant shifts in nuclear energy costs during the dynamic environment. Employing a contemporary descriptive methodology and a quantitative analysis, we furnish a comprehensive overview of the alterations in cost overrun distribution and show the changes observed in other pivotal metrics alongside cost overruns. Our emphasis lies in documenting the fluctuations in cost overruns alongside nuclear reactor capacity levels and the increase of the overnight capital costs to build nuclear reactors. Our results show that increasing the size of nuclear reactors is not a factor statistically significant to decrease the percentage of cost overruns, and the probit model results provide evidence that an increase in size increases the probability of having cost overruns larger than 100% (double the estimated cost). We also compare our findings to two other regions: Asia and Europe.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scattering-based structural inversion of soft materials via Kolmogorov–Arnold networks

Small-angle scattering techniques are indispensable tools for probing the structure of soft materials. However, traditional analytical models often face limitations in structural inversion for complex systems, primarily due to the absence of closed-form expressions of scattering functions. To address these challenges, we present a machine learning framework based on the Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN) for directly extracting real-space structural information from scattering spectra in reciprocal space. This model-independent, data-driven approach provides a versatile solution for analyzing intricate configurations in soft matter. By applying the KAN to lyotropic lamellar phases and colloidal suspensions—two representative soft matter systems—we demonstrate its ability to accurately and efficiently resolve structural collectivity and complexity. Here, our findings highlight the transformative potential of machine learning in enhancing the quantitative analysis of soft materials, paving the way for robust structural inversion across diverse systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights into distorted lamellar phases with small-angle scattering and machine learning

Lamellar phases are essential in various soft matter systems, with topological defects significantly influencing their mechanical properties. In this report, we present a machine-learning approach for quantitatively analyzing the structure and dynamics of distorted lamellar phases using scattering techniques. By leveraging the mathematical framework of Kolmogorov–Arnold networks, we demonstrate that the conformations of these distorted phases – expressed as superpositions of complex waves – can be reconstructed from small-angle scattering intensities. Through the contour analysis of wave field phase singularities, we obtain the statistics of the spatial distribution of topological defects. Furthermore, we establish that the temporal evolution of these defects can be derived from the time-dependent traveling wave field, informed by the dispersion relation of spectral components. This method opens new avenues for investigating the dynamics of distorted lamellar phases using various dynamic scattering techniques such as neutron spin echo and X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy. These findings enhance our microscopic understanding of how defects influence the physical properties of lamellar materials, with implications for both equilibrium and non-equilibrium states in general lamellar systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shock Hugoniot calculations using on-the-fly machine learned force fields with ab initio accuracy

We present a framework for computing the shock Hugoniot using on-the-fly machine learned force field (MLFF) molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we employ an MLFF model based on the kernel method and Bayesian linear regression to compute the free energy, atomic forces, and pressure, in conjunction with a linear regression model between the internal and free energies to compute the internal energy, with all training data generated from Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT). We verify the accuracy of the formalism by comparing the Hugoniot for carbon with recent Kohn–Sham DFT results in the literature. In so doing, we demonstrate that Kohn–Sham calculations for the Hugoniot can be accelerated by up to two orders of magnitude, while retaining ab initio accuracy. We apply this framework to calculate the Hugoniots of 14 materials in the FPEOS database, comprising 9 single elements and 5 compounds, between temperatures of 10 kK and 2 MK. We find good agreement with first principles results in the literature while providing tighter error bars. In addition, we confirm that the inter-element interaction in compounds decreases with temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable learning of potentials to predict time-dependent Hartree–Fock dynamics

We propose a framework to learn the time-dependent Hartree–Fock (TDHF) inter-electronic potential of a molecule from its electron density dynamics. Although the entire TDHF Hamiltonian, including the inter-electronic potential, can be computed from first principles, we use this problem as a testbed to develop strategies that can be applied to learn a priori unknown terms that arise in other methods/approaches to quantum dynamics, e.g., emerging problems such as learning exchange–correlation potentials for time-dependent density functional theory. We develop, train, and test three models of the TDHF inter-electronic potential, each parameterized by a four-index tensor of size up to 60 × 60 × 60 × 60. Two of the models preserve Hermitian symmetry, while one model preserves an eight-fold permutation symmetry that implies Hermitian symmetry. Across seven different molecular systems, we find that accounting for the deeper eight-fold symmetry leads to the best-performing model across three metrics: training efficiency, test set predictive power, and direct comparison of true and learned inter-electronic potentials. All three models, when trained on ensembles of field-free trajectories, generate accurate electron dynamics predictions even in a field-on regime that lies outside the training set. To enable our models to scale to large molecular systems, we derive expressions for Jacobian-vector products that enable iterative, matrix-free training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Studying single-electron traps in newly fabricated Skipper-CCDs for the Oscura experiment using the pocket-pumping technique

Understanding and characterizing very low-energy (⁠ ∼eV) background sources is a must in rare-event searches. Oscura, an experiment aiming to probe electron recoils from sub-GeV dark matter using a 10 kg skipper-CCD detector, has recently fabricated its first two batches of sensors. In this work, we present the characterization of defects/contaminants identified in the buried-channel region of these newly fabricated skipper-CCDs. These defects/contaminants produce deferred charge from trap emission in the images next to particle tracks, which can be spatially resolved due to the sub-electron resolution achieved with these sensors. Using the trap-pumping technique, we measured the energy and cross section associated with these traps in three Oscura prototype sensors from different fabrication batches which underwent different gettering methods during fabrication. Results suggest that the type of defects/contaminants is more closely linked to the fabrication batch rather than to the gettering method used. The exposure-dependent single-electron rate (SER) of one of these sensors was measured ∼100 m underground, yielding (1.8±0.3)×10−3e−/pix/day at 131 K. The impact of the identified traps on the measured exposure-dependent SER is evaluated via a Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that the exposure-dependent SER of Oscura prototype sensors would be lower in lower background environments as expected.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase transitions of β-ZnTe(en) 0.5 under hydrostatic pressure

Organic–inorganic hybrid semiconductors have enhanced and distinctive material properties. β-ZnTe(en) 0.5 , which consists of alternating layers of two-monolayer-thick zinc telluride (ZnTe) and ethylenediamine (en), exhibits high crystallinity, stability, and tunable optical properties. Using x-ray diffraction (XRD) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, this study investigated the structural response of β-ZnTe(en) 0.5 to applied hydrostatic pressure. Pressure-induced phase transitions were observed at 2.1 and 3.3 GPa. Shifts in the XRD peaks indicate substantial anisotropy in the pressure response, with the layer stacking direction ( b axis) exhibiting high compressibility. The a and b lattice parameters showed −0.55% strain/GPa and −2.26% strain/GPa, respectively, contradicting theoretical calculations that predicted a more isotropic response. IR spectroscopy revealed abrupt changes in NH 2 and CH 2 vibrational modes corresponding to the phase transitions.

Chemical compounds↗