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Diagnosis: Reasoning from first principles and experiential knowledge

Completeness, efficiency and autonomy are requirements for suture diagnostic reasoning systems. Methods for automating diagnostic reasoning systems include diagnosis from first principles (i.e., reasoning from a thorough description of structure and behavior) and diagnosis from experiential knowledge (i.e., reasoning from a set of examples obtained from experts). However, implementation of either as a single reasoning method fails to meet these requirements. The approach of combining reasoning from first principles and reasoning from experiential knowledge does address the requirements discussed above and can possibly ease some of the difficulties associated with knowledge acquisition by allowing developers to systematically enumerate a portion of the knowledge necessary to build the diagnosis program. The ability to enumerate knowledge systematically facilitates defining the program's scope, completeness, and competence and assists in bounding, controlling, and guiding the knowledge acquisition process.

Williams, Linda J. F.↗

Overcoming rule-based rigidity and connectionist limitations through massively-parallel case-based reasoning

Symbol manipulation as used in traditional Artificial Intelligence has been criticized by neural net researchers for being excessively inflexible and sequential. On the other hand, the application of neural net techniques to the types of high-level cognitive processing studied in traditional artificial intelligence presents major problems as well. A promising way out of this impasse is to build neural net models that accomplish massively parallel case-based reasoning. Case-based reasoning, which has received much attention recently, is essentially the same as analogy-based reasoning, and avoids many of the problems leveled at traditional artificial intelligence. Further problems are avoided by doing many strands of case-based reasoning in parallel, and by implementing the whole system as a neural net. In addition, such a system provides an approach to some aspects of the problems of noise, uncertainty and novelty in reasoning systems. The current neural net system (Conposit), which performs standard rule-based reasoning, is being modified into a massively parallel case-based reasoning version.

Barnden, John↗

Design of Composite Structures Using Knowledge-Based and Case Based Reasoning

A method of using knowledge based and case based reasoning to assist designers during conceptual design tasks of composite structures was proposed. The cooperative use of heuristics, procedural knowledge, and previous similar design cases suggests a potential reduction in design cycle time and ultimately product lead time. The hypothesis of this work is that the design process of composite structures can be improved by using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) and Knowledge-Based (KB) reasoning in the early design stages. The technique of using knowledge-based and case-based reasoning facilitates the gathering of disparate information into one location that is easily and readily available. The method suggests that the inclusion of downstream life-cycle issues into the conceptual design phase reduces potential of defective, and sub-optimal composite structures. Three industry experts were interviewed extensively. The experts provided design rules, previous design cases, and test problems. A Knowledge Based Reasoning system was developed using the CLIPS (C Language Interpretive Procedural System) environment and a Case Based Reasoning System was developed using the Design Memory Utility For Sharing Experiences (MUSE) xviii environment. A Design Characteristic State (DCS) was used to document the design specifications, constraints, and problem areas using attribute-value pair relationships. The DCS provided consistent design information between the knowledge base and case base. Results indicated that the use of knowledge based and case based reasoning provided a robust design environment for composite structures. The knowledge base provided design guidance from well defined rules and procedural knowledge. The case base provided suggestions on design and manufacturing techniques based on previous similar designs and warnings of potential problems and pitfalls. The case base complemented the knowledge base and extended the problem solving capability beyond the existence of limited well defined rules. The findings indicated that the technique is most effective when used as a design aid and not as a tool to totally automate the composites design process. Other areas of application and implications for future research are discussed.

Lambright, Jonathan Paul↗

Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Metric Report

This document outlines a set of metrics for evaluating the diagnostic and prognostic schemes developed for the Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR), a system-level reasoner that encompasses the multiple levels of large, complex systems such as those for aircraft and spacecraft. VIPR health managers are organized hierarchically and operate together to derive diagnostic and prognostic inferences from symptoms and conditions reported by a set of diagnostic and prognostic monitors. For layered reasoners such as VIPR, the overall performance cannot be evaluated by metrics solely directed toward timely detection and accuracy of estimation of the faults in individual components. Among other factors, overall vehicle reasoner performance is governed by the effectiveness of the communication schemes between monitors and reasoners in the architecture, and the ability to propagate and fuse relevant information to make accurate, consistent, and timely predictions at different levels of the reasoner hierarchy. We outline an extended set of diagnostic and prognostics metrics that can be broadly categorized as evaluation measures for diagnostic coverage, prognostic coverage, accuracy of inferences, latency in making inferences, computational cost, and sensitivity to different fault and degradation conditions. We report metrics from Monte Carlo experiments using two variations of an aircraft reference model that supported both flat and hierarchical reasoning.

Cornhill, Dennis↗

Monte Carlo Thought Search: Large Language Model Querying for Complex Scientific Reasoning in Catalyst Design

Discovering novel catalysts requires complex reasoning involving multiple chemical properties and resultant trade-offs, leading to a combinatorial growth in the search space. While large language models (LLM) have demonstrated novel capabilities for chemistry through complex instruction following capabilities and high quality reasoning, a goal-driven combinatorial search using LLMs has not been explored in detail. In this work, we present a Monte Carlo Tree Search-based approach that improves beyond state-of-the-art chain-of-thought prompting variants to augment scientific reasoning. We introduce two new reasoning datasets: 1) a curation of computational chemistry simulations, and 2) diverse questions written by catalysis researchers for reasoning about novel chemical conversion processes. We improve over the best baseline by 25.8\% and find that our approach can augment scientist's reasoning and discovery process with novel insights.\footnote{All resources will be publicly available upon publication.

Sprueill, Henry W.↗

Dynamic reasoning in a knowledge-based system

Any space based system, whether it is a robot arm assembling parts in space or an onboard system monitoring the space station, has to react to changes which cannot be foreseen. As a result, apart from having domain-specific knowledge as in current expert systems, a space based AI system should also have general principles of change. This paper presents a modal logic which can not only represent change but also reason with it. Three primitive operations, expansion, contraction and revision are introduced and axioms which specify how the knowledge base should change when the external world changes are also specified. Accordingly the notion of dynamic reasoning is introduced, which unlike the existing forms of reasoning, provide general principles of change. Dynamic reasoning is based on two main principles, namely minimize change and maximize coherence. A possible-world semantics which incorporates the above two principles is also discussed. The paper concludes by discussing how the dynamic reasoning system can be used to specify actions and hence form an integral part of an autonomous reasoning and planning system.

Rao, Anand S.↗

Approximate reasoning using terminological models

Term Subsumption Systems (TSS) form a knowledge-representation scheme in AI that can express the defining characteristics of concepts through a formal language that has a well-defined semantics and incorporates a reasoning mechanism that can deduce whether one concept subsumes another. However, TSS's have very limited ability to deal with the issue of uncertainty in knowledge bases. The objective of this research is to address issues in combining approximate reasoning with term subsumption systems. To do this, we have extended an existing AI architecture (CLASP) that is built on the top of a term subsumption system (LOOM). First, the assertional component of LOOM has been extended for asserting and representing uncertain propositions. Second, we have extended the pattern matcher of CLASP for plausible rule-based inferences. Third, an approximate reasoning model has been added to facilitate various kinds of approximate reasoning. And finally, the issue of inconsistency in truth values due to inheritance is addressed using justification of those values. This architecture enhances the reasoning capabilities of expert systems by providing support for reasoning under uncertainty using knowledge captured in TSS. Also, as definitional knowledge is explicit and separate from heuristic knowledge for plausible inferences, the maintainability of expert systems could be improved.

Yen, John↗

Achieving reasonable confidence in the validation of control room designs and modifications: A summary of the 2015 NEA experts' workshop - 124

Defining and achieving reasonable confidence in the validation of nuclear power plant control room designs is a complex challenge for many reasons; not the least of which is that validation is a test of strength rather than a test of truth. In 2015, the Nuclear Energy Agency, Committee for Safety of Nuclear Installations' Working Group on Human and Organizational Factors (WGHOF) hosted an experts' workshop to identify and critically examine potential means to address the challenge of achieving reasonable confidence in control room design validations. The experts' principal task was to answer four challenge questions. (1) What are the critical considerations in defining validation objectives and how do these impact achieving reasonable confidence? (2) What methods, approaches, resources, or rationales might be used for deriving performance requirements, selecting measures, and establishing acceptance criteria so as to support reasonable confidence? (3) What methods might be used to develop scenarios that maximize the amount and relevance of information in support of the validation conclusions and achieving reasonable confidence? (4) How should the validation results be aggregated and analyzed to determine the final validation conclusions? This paper provides an overview of the experts' responses to these challenges and briefly touches upon their implications for future directions. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Towards philosophical reasoning with agentic LLMs: Socratic method for scientific assistance

As large language models (LLMs) become central tools in science, improving their reasoning capabilities is critical for meaningful and trustworthy applications. We introduce a Socratic agent for scientific reasoning, implemented through a structured system prompt that guides LLMs via classical principles of inquiry. Unlike typical prompt engineering or retrieval-based methods, our approach leverages definition, analogy, hypothesis elimination, and other Socratic techniques to generate more coherent, critical, and domain-aware responses. We evaluate the agent across diverse scientific domains and benchmark it on the abstraction and reasoning corpus challenge dataset, achieving 97.15% under a fixed prompting protocol and without fine-tuning or external tools. Expert evaluation shows improved reasoning depth, clarity, and adaptability over conventional LLM outputs, suggesting that structured prompting rooted in philosophical reasoning can improve the scientific utility of language models.

LLM reasoning↗

Reason of Discontinuation After Transarterial Chemoembolization Influences Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is often repeated until unTACEable progression (UTP) occurs. There is little data on the various reasons for stopping TACE and its consequences for subsequent treatment and survival. Aim: To assess the impact of the various reasons of UTP on survival and consequences for subsequent treatments. Methods: Consecutive HCC patients who underwent TACE between 2003 and 2016 were analyzed retrospectively for the reason of TACE discontinuation. UTP was defined according to the EASL guidelines, considering radiological pattern of progression, liver function and performance status (PS). Overall and post-progression survival (OS, PPS) for different reasons of TACE discontinuation were compared. The correlation between time to untreatable progression by chemoembolization (TTUPc) and OS was analyzed. Results: One hundred and sixty-six patients (BCLC-A 40%, BCLC-B 54%, BCLC-C: 7%) were included, undergoing a median of 2 TACE procedures with a median OS of 22.1 months (95% CI 17.4–26.7). UTP occurred in 116 patients (70%) after a median TTUPc of 11.6 months (95% CI 7.8–15.4). There was a strong positive correlation (ρ = 0.816, p < 0.001) between TTUPc and OS. The main reason of UTP was radiological progression (61%), which was mostly intrahepatic (75%). Hepatic decompensation and worsening of PS were independent predictors of OS and PPS. Conclusion: The majority of HCC patients treated with TACE have UTP due to intrahepatic tumor progression with preserved liver function and PS, making them potential candidates for subsequent liver-directed or systemic treatment. TTUPc may be a valuable surrogate endpoint for OS in patients treated with TACE. Level of Evidence: Level II, prognosis study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

In defense of compilation: A response to Davis' form and content in model-based reasoning

In a recent paper entitled 'Form and Content in Model Based Reasoning', Randy Davis argues that model based reasoning research aimed at compiling task specific rules from underlying device models is mislabeled, misguided, and diversionary. Some of Davis' claims are examined and his basic conclusions are challenged about the value of compilation research to the model based reasoning community. In particular, Davis' claim is refuted that model based reasoning is exempt from the efficiency benefits provided by knowledge compilation techniques. In addition, several misconceptions are clarified about the role of representational form in compilation. It is concluded that techniques have the potential to make a substantial contribution to solving tractability problems in model based reasoning.

Keller, Richard↗

Irrelevance Reasoning in Knowledge Based Systems

This dissertation considers the problem of reasoning about irrelevance of knowledge in a principled and efficient manner. Specifically, it is concerned with two key problems: (1) developing algorithms for automatically deciding what parts of a knowledge base are irrelevant to a query and (2) the utility of relevance reasoning. The dissertation describes a novel tool, the query-tree, for reasoning about irrelevance. Based on the query-tree, we develop several algorithms for deciding what formulas are irrelevant to a query. Our general framework sheds new light on the problem of detecting independence of queries from updates. We present new results that significantly extend previous work in this area. The framework also provides a setting in which to investigate the connection between the notion of irrelevance and the creation of abstractions. We propose a new approach to research on reasoning with abstractions, in which we investigate the properties of an abstraction by considering the irrelevance claims on which it is based. We demonstrate the potential of the approach for the cases of abstraction of predicates and projection of predicate arguments. Finally, we describe an application of relevance reasoning to the domain of modeling physical devices.

INFERENCE↗

A Framework for Dynamic Constraint Reasoning Using Procedural Constraints

Many complex real-world decision and control problems contain an underlying constraint reasoning problem. This is particularly evident in a recently developed approach to planning, where almost all planning decisions are represented by constrained variables. This translates a significant part of the planning problem into a constraint network whose consistency determines the validity of the plan candidate. Since higher-level choices about control actions can add or remove variables and constraints, the underlying constraint network is invariably highly dynamic. Arbitrary domain-dependent constraints may be added to the constraint network and the constraint reasoning mechanism must be able to handle such constraints effectively. Additionally, real problems often require handling constraints over continuous variables. These requirements present a number of significant challenges for a constraint reasoning mechanism. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for handling dynamic constraint networks with real-valued variables, by using procedures to represent and effectively reason about general constraints. The framework is based on a sound theoretical foundation, and can be proven to be sound and complete under well-defined conditions. Furthermore, the framework provides hybrid reasoning capabilities, as alternative solution methods like mathematical programming can be incorporated into the framework, in the form of procedures.

Jonsson, Ari K.↗

Compositional Reasoning for Hierarchical State Machines

Harel statecharts and its derivatives are popular graphical languages for specifying discrete control systems via hierarchical state machines. Separately, there has been a long line of work on specifying concurrent systems with process calculi which come equipped with an algebraic theory, the ability reason compositionally about various temporal properties, and strong type systems. While these two approaches to modeling systems are tantalizingly similar, the integrated reasoning principles that exist for process calculi have not been demonstrated in hierarchical state machines. A key issue is that operational theories for process calculi do not behave like control systems, and thus, there is virtually no tool support for modeling control systems with such languages. For a control system designer, bringing the integrated, more scalable reasoning from the process calculi to state-machine languages would enable the specification of more complex systems and a more modular systems development process. Our insight is that we can recover many important results from the process calculi in hierarchical state machines with local scope. We employ a structural operational semantics, which is ubiquitous in process and 𝜆-calculi but uncommon in hierarchical statemachine formalizations, to enable inductive reasoning about behavior. Taking inspiration from the structure of process calculi metatheories, we define a calculus of refinement and equivalence that we prove sound with respect to local notion of (bi)simulation. Furthermore, we prove that the calculus preserves the behavioral properties of reactivity, observational determinism, traces, and linear temporal properties. Our results are mechanized in the Rocq proof assistant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data & Reasoning Fabric Minimum Viable Product

A Data & Reasoning Fabric (DRF) is envisioned to enable the full potential of air mobility by providing all data and reasoning where they are needed. The DRF provides a marketplace based on an open foundational ecosystem of data and reasoning exchange between the many systems that must seamlessly interplay to manage the complex and dense airspace operations required to achieve advanced air mobility goals. The DRF marketplace is decentralized and will not be owned by any single party. To deliver reference designs and development environments that catalyze broad private and public sector buy-in and self-sustaining development of DRF and associated standards, DRF activities will collaboratively test these technologies, open standards and architectures, and an integrated framework with end-users. The DRF activity is developing a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) called the DRF Accelerator which will enable the rapid deployment of candidate data and reasoning services to test and evaluate the DRF core system functionality. The DRF Project is engaging with government and industry end-users and stakeholders, to: (1) assess the technical feasibility of the DRF Accelerator; (2) assess the likelihood of adoption, through shared test and evaluation; and (3) identify what data and services can be shared across DRF.

DRF↗

Case-based reasoning for space applications: Utilization of prior experience in knowledge-based systems

The goal is to explain Case-Based Reasoning as a vehicle to establish knowledge-based systems based on experimental reasoning for possible space applications. This goal will be accomplished through an examination of reasoning based on prior experience in a sample domain, and also through a presentation of proposed space applications which could utilize Case-Based Reasoning techniques.

King, James A.↗

Expertise and reasoning with possibility: An explanation of modal logic and expert systems

Recently systems of modal reasoning have been brought to the foreground of artificial intelligence studies. The intuitive idea of research efforts in this area is that in addition to the actual world in which sentences have certain truth values there are other worlds in which those sentences have different truth values. Such alternative worlds can be considered as possible worlds, and an agent may or may not have access to some or all of them. This approach to reasoning can be valuable in extending the expert system paradigm. Using the scheme of reasoning proposed by Toulmin, Reike and Janick and the modal system T, a scheme is proposed for expert reasoning that mitigates some of the criticisms raised by Schank and Nickerson.

Rochowiak, Daniel↗

A situated reasoning architecture for space-based repair and replace tasks

Space-based robots need low level control for collision detection and avoidance, short-term load management, fine-grained motion, and other physical tasks. In addition, higher level control is required to focus strategic decision making as missions are assigned and carried out. Reasoning and control must be responsive to ongoing changes in the environment. Research aimed at bridging the gap between high level artificial intelligence (AI) planning techniques and task-level robot programming for telerobotic systems is described. Situated reasoning is incorporated into AI and Robotics systems in order to coordinate a robot's activity within its environment. An integrated system under development in a component maintenance domain is described. It is geared towards replacing worn and/or failed Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) designed for use aboard NASA's Space Station Freedom based on the collection of components available at a given time. High level control reasons in component space in order to maximize the number operational component-cells over time, while the task-level controls sensors and effectors, detects collisions, and carries out pick and place tasks in physical space. Situated reasoning is used throughout the system to cope with component failures, imperfect information, and unexpected events.

Bloom, Ben↗