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At least 37 records · Page 2

Effect of Random Geometric Uncertainty on the Computational Design of a 3-D Flexible Wing

The effect of geometric uncertainty due to statistically independent, random, normally distributed shape parameters is demonstrated in the computational design of a 3-D flexible wing. A first-order second-moment statistical approximation method is used to propagate the assumed input uncertainty through coupled Euler CFD aerodynamic / finite element structural codes for both analysis and sensitivity analysis. First-order sensitivity derivatives obtained by automatic differentiation are used in the input uncertainty propagation. These propagated uncertainties are then used to perform a robust design of a simple 3-D flexible wing at supercritical flow conditions. The effect of the random input uncertainties is shown by comparison with conventional deterministic design results. Sample results are shown for wing planform, airfoil section, and structural sizing variables.

Gumbert, C. R.↗

Effects of random path fluctuations on the accuracy of laser ranging systems

Effects of turbulence-induced pathlength fluctuations on the accuracy of single-color laser ranging systems are examined. Correlation and structure functions for the path deviations are derived using several proposed models for the variation of the turbulence structure parameter with altitude. For single-color systems, random pathlength fluctuations can limit the accuracy of a range measurement to a few centimeters when the turbulence is strong and the effective propagation path is long (greater than 10 km). Two-color systems can partially correct for the random path fluctuations so that in most cases their accuracy is limited to a few millimeters. However, at low elevation angles for satellite ranging (less than 20 deg) and over long horizontal paths, two-color systems can also have errors approaching a few centimeters.

Gardner, C. S.↗

The effects of random accelerations on estimation accuracy with applications to the Mariner 1969 relativity experiment

A simple point of view is presented for establishing the relationship between a general modeling error and estimation accuracy. Tentative models are given for the random, nongravitational forces thought likely to affect the Mariner 6 and 7 spacecraft. The navigation data from these spacecraft were used to determine the relativity parameter Gamma. The effect that random accelerations have on the classical least squares filter, which assumes the accelerations do not exist, is calculated, and it is demonstrated that their presence seriously affects the estimates, particularly when an extended data arc is employed. Finally, some preliminary exploration using sequential-type filters, which attempt to model and thus ameliorate the effects of these same accelerations, is reported.

Curkendall, D. W.↗

Reliability of Space-Shuttle Pressure Vessels with Random Batch Effects

In this article we revisit the problem of estimating the joint reliability against failure by stress rupture of a group of fiber-wrapped pressure vessels used on Space-Shuttle missions. The available test data were obtained from an experiment conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) in which scaled-down vessels were subjected to life testing at four accelerated levels of pressure. We estimate the reliability assuming that both the Shuttle and LLL vessels were chosen at random in a two-stage process from an infinite population with spools of fiber as the primary sampling unit. Two main objectives of this work are: (1) to obtain practical estimates of reliability taking into account random spool effects and (2) to obtain a realistic assessment of estimation accuracy under the random model. Here, reliability is calculated in terms of a 'system' of 22 fiber-wrapped pressure vessels, taking into account typical pressures and exposure times experienced by Shuttle vessels. Comparisons are made with previous studies. The main conclusion of this study is that, although point estimates of reliability are still in the 'comfort zone,' it is advisable to plan for replacement of the pressure vessels well before the expected Lifetime of 100 missions per Shuttle Orbiter. Under a random-spool model, there is simply not enough information in the LLL data to provide reasonable assurance that such replacement would not be necessary.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

The effect of random Alfven waves on the propagation of hydromagnetic waves in a finite-beta plasma

Using first-order smoothing theory, Fourier analysis and perturbation methods, the evolution equation of the wave spectrum as well as the nonlinear forces generated by random Alfven waves in a finite-beta plasma with phenomenological Landau-damping effects are obtained. The effect of microscale random Alfven waves on the propagation of large-scale hydromagnetic waves is also investigated by solving the mean-field equations. It is shown that parallel-propagating random Alfven waves are modulationally stable and that obliquely propagating random Alfven waves can be modulationally unstable when the energy of random waves is converted to slow magnetoacoustic waves that can be Landau-damped, providing a dissipation mechanism for the Alfven waves.

Hamabata, Hiromitsu↗

The effects of random errors in rawinsonde data on derived kinematic quantities

The sensitivity of kinematic parameters to random errors contained in rawinsonde data is assessed. Parameters under consideration include relative vorticity, vorticity advection, horizontal divergence, kinematic vertical motion, and temperature advection. It is shown that horizontal divergence is the most affected, with reliability a function of height. Vorticity advection is the next most altered by random error, and in this case, the effects of wind errors are greater on the gradient of vorticity than on the vorticity itself. Vertical motions are most affected by random perturbations at 300 mb and above, and temperature advection is found to be the least sensitive to random perturbations.

Belt, C. L.↗

Effective propagation constants in dense random media under effective medium approximation

The effective medium approximation is applied to study the effective propagation constants in a dense random medium. The dyadic Green's function is introduced to establish the effective medium approximation formalism for electromagnetic waves. The multiple scattering equations and the Lippmann-Schwinger equations for the transition operator are obtained in the configuration average form. The dispersion equations of multiple scattering is derived by using a standard method in quantum mechanics. To obtain an expression for the effective propagation constants the matrix elements of the configuration average dyadic transiton operator are calculated in momentum representation. Numerical illustations are carried out to demonstrate the difference in the effective propagation constants between the use of this approximation and the well-known quasi-crystalline approximation. A comparison is made with measured loss tangent in dry snow.

Zhu, P. Y.↗

The effect of random fluctuations in atmospheric density on significant space shuttle reentry parameters.

The effects of realistic atmospheric density variations on reentry vehicles are investigated with the aid of a random model of atmospheric density and a series of Monte Carlo reentry trajectories generated for a typical delta-wing orbiter design. The random behavior of five major performance indicators is studied, namely, maximum dynamic pressure, maximum g load, maximum stagnation heating rate, down-range distance, and cross-range distance.

Campbell, J. W.↗

The effect of random precipitation times on the scavenging rate for tropospheric nitric acid

A model for the effective scavenging rate of a soluble species has been developed. The model takes into account the possibility of positive as well as negative correlations between departures from the mean of the scavenging rate and species concentration. The model is demonstrated for the case of late afternoon rainout of nitric acid occurring just prior to the nighttime cessation of its chemical production. The calculations give effective scavenging rates which are about a factor of 2 to 3 greater than those calculated using the models of Rodhe and Grandell (1972) and Giorgi and Chameides (1985).

Stewart, Richard W.↗

An efficient computational method for characterizing the effects of random surface errors on the average power pattern of reflectors

Based on the works of Ruze (1966) and Vu (1969), a novel mathematical model has been developed to determine efficiently the average power pattern degradations caused by random surface errors. In this model, both nonuniform root mean square (rms) surface errors and nonuniform illumination functions are employed. In addition, the model incorporates the dependence on F/D in the construction of the solution. The mathematical foundation of the model rests on the assumption that in each prescribed annular region of the antenna, the geometrical rms surface value is known. It is shown that closed-form expressions can then be derived, which result in a very efficient computational method for the average power pattern. Detailed parametric studies are performed with these expressions to determine the effects of different random errors and illumination tapers on parameters such as gain loss and sidelobe levels. The results clearly demonstrate that as sidelobe levels decrease, their dependence on the surface rms/wavelength becomes much stronger and, for a specified tolerance level, a considerably smaller rms/wavelength is required to maintain the low sidelobes within the required bounds.

Rahmat-Samii, Y.↗

Effects of Mild Hypobaric Hypoxia on Response From Mild Exercise in NASA Exploration Atmosphere Tests

INTRODUCTION: The NASA Exploration Atmosphere study aims to validate a new prebreathe protocol incorporating an alternate habitat atmosphere of 56.5 kPa (8.2psia), 34% O 2 , and 66% N 2 to control and mitigate decompression sickness risk associated with spaceflight extravehicular activities. This alternate atmosphere results in a mild hypoxic environment (PIO 2 of 128 mmHg) that may influence inhabitant physiological responses to exercise. Therefore, the responses to light exercise in relation to the mild hypobaric hypoxic environment were investigated. METHODS: Eight participants (4M/4F; age=38.3±9.0 yr; weight=76.0±13.1 kg; peak aerobic capacity [VO 2 pk]= 3.1±0.7 L/min) were exposed to a mild hypobaric hypoxic environment for 11 days in NASA’s 20-foot hypobaric chamber at Johnson Space Center. Participants alternated test days between a habitat atmosphere of 56.5 kPA/34% O 2 and simulated 6-hour EVA environment, 29.6 kPa/85% O 2 . Participants completed pre-mission graded VO 2 pk tests on a LODE cycle ergometer with ParvoMedics metabolic analyzer. Submaximal aerobic tests were performed pre and during the mission (10-minutes of exercise at a workload of 40% VO 2 pk).Pre-mission, performed submaximal exercise exposed to a breathing air mixture of, 18% O 2 and balance N 2 , to simulate the mildly hypoxic environment within the 20-foot chamber. Linear mixed models (fixed effect: test day; random effects: subject, age) were performed to determine whether physiological responses (oxygen uptake [VO 2 ], carbon dioxide production [VCO 2 ], ventilation [VE], oxygen saturation [SPO 2 ], heart rate [HR], respiratory exchange ratio [RER]) to submaximal exercise performed within the 20-foot hypobaric chamber every 2 days differed from the pre-mission (18% O 2 ) testing. Results are presented as estimated marginal means with lower and upper confidence limits, with significance set to 0.05. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Seven of eight participants completed the chamber study. Mixed models for VO 2 , VCO 2 , SpO 2 , HR, and RER indicated negligible impact of the mild hypoxic chamber environment compared to pre-mission testing (all p>0.05).Results for VE indicated a minor impact of chamber environment compared to pre-mission testing (37.0 L/min [30.8, 43.2]), with increased VE at test day 10 (40.4 L/min [34.2, 46.6]; p= 0.029).The aerobic performance data collected suggests limited physiologic responses to mild exercise when performed at normobaric hypoxia and hypobaric hypoxia.

B Siders↗

Gravitational microlensing - The effect of random motion of individual stars in the lensing galaxy

We investigate the influence of random motion of individual stars in the lensing galaxy on the light curve of a gravitationally lensed background quasar. We compare this with the effects of the transverse motion of the galaxy. We find that three-dimensional random motion of stars with a velocity dispersion sigma in each dimension is more effective in producing 'peaks' in a microlensed light curve by a factor a about 1.3 than motion of the galaxy with a transverse velocity v(t) = sigma. This effectiveness parameter a seems to depend only weakly on the surface mass density. With an assumed transverse velocity of v(t) = 600 km/s of the galaxy lensing the QSO 2237+0305 and a measured velocity dispersion of sigma = 215 km/s, the expected rate of maxima in the light curves calculated for bulk motion alone has to be increased by about 10 percent due to the random motion of stars. As a consequence, the average time interval Delta t between two high-magnification events is smaller than the time interval Delta(t) bulk, calculated for bulk motion alone, Delta t about 0.9 Delta(t) bulk.

Kundic, Tomislav↗

Territory and Population Attributes Affect Florida Scrub-Jay Fecundity in Fire Adapted Ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida’s Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing “strong” quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Long-term studies↗

The effects of random path fluctuations on the accuracy of laser ranging systems

The precision of satellite ranging systems, limited in part by atmospheric refraction and scattering, is examined. The effects of atmospheric turbulence on the accuracy of single color and multicolor ranging systems is discussed. The statistical characteristics of the random path length fluctuations induced by turbulence are examined. Correlation and structure functions are derived using several proposed models for the variations of the optical path length. For single color systems it is shown that the random path length fluctuations can limit the accuracy of a range measurement to a few centimeters. Two color systems can partially correct for the random path fluctuations so that in most cases their accuracy is limited to a few millimeters. However, at low elevation angles and over long horizontal paths two color systems can also have errors approaching a few centimeters.

Gardner, C. S.↗

Effect of Random Thermal Spikes on Stirling Convertor Heater Head Reliability

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed to support future NASA exploration missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr and beyond. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency developmental Stirling power convertor has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures (up to 650 C), stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. Additionally, assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled heater head, the variation in the manufactured thickness, variation in control temperature, and variation in pressure on the durability and reliability were performed. However, it is possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of random temperature spikes (excursions) of short duration. These incidences could occur randomly with random magnitude and duration during the desired mission life. These rare incidences could affect the creep strain rate and therefore the life. The paper accounts for these uncertainties and includes the effect of such rare incidences, random in nature, on the reliability. The sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Furthermore, the quantified reliability is being verified with test data from the accelerated benchmark tests being conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Effect of Random Thermal Spikes on Stirling Convertor Heater Head Reliability

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed to support future NASA exploration missions require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 yr and beyond. The structurally critical heater head of the high-efficiency developmental Stirling power converter has undergone extensive computational analysis of operating temperatures (up to 650 C), stresses, and creep resistance of the thin-walled Inconel 718 bill of material. Additionally assessment of the effect of uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled heater head, the variation in the manufactured thickness, variation in control temperature, and variation in pressure on the durability and reliability were performed. However, it is possible for the heater head to experience rare incidences of random temperature spikes (excursions) of short duration. These incidences could occur randomly with random magnitude and duration during the desired mission life. These rare incidences could affect the creep strain rate and therefore the life. The paper accounts for these uncertainties and includes the effect of such rare incidences, random in nature, on the reliability. The sensitivities of variables affecting the reliability are quantified and guidelines developed to improve the reliability are outlined. Furthermore, the quantified reliability is being verified with test data from the accelerated benchmark tests being conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Systematic effects of randomness in radiative transfer

In this paper, the authors show how the variability of the water content in individual clouds, the complexity of individual cloud structure, and the lateral and vertical heterogeneity of the distribution of individual clouds can produce systematic effects in the inversion of intensity distributions and the inference of source functions and the vertical temperature profile. This is possibly very significant, even in simple applications of radiative transfer theory where multiple scattering is not very important, in light of the randomness in the water vapor content and geometry associated with the microphysics of clouds. A practical procedure is provided to quantify this effect and to obtain, in certain circumstances, an improved estimate of the vertical temperature profile.

Newman, William I.↗