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DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Superiority of compensatory reserve measurement compared with the Shock index for early and accurate detection of reduced central blood volume status

Shock index (SI) equals the ratio of heart rate (HR) to systolic blood pressure (SBP) with clinical evidence that it is more sensitive for trauma patient status assessment and prediction of outcome compared with either HR or SBP alone. We used lower body negative pressure (LBNP) as a human model of central hypovolemia and compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) validated for accurate tracking of reduced central blood volume to test the hypotheses that SI: (1) presents a late signal of central blood volume status; (2) displays poor sensitivity and specificity for predicting the onset of hemodynamic decompensation; and (3) cannot identify individuals at greatest risk for the onset of circulatory shock. We measured HR, SBP, and CRM in 172 human subjects (19–55 years) during progressive LBNP designed to determine tolerance to central hypovolemia as a model of hemorrhage. Subjects were subsequently divided into those with high tolerance (HT) (n = 118) and low tolerance (LT) (n = 54) based on completion of 60 mm Hg LBNP. The time course relationship between SI and CRM was determined and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for sensitivity and specificity of CRM and SI to predict hemodynamic decompensation using clinically defined thresholds of 40% for CRM and 0.9 for SI. The time and level of LBNP required to reach a SI = 0.9 (~60 mm Hg LBNP) was significantly greater (p < 0.001) compared with CRM that reached 40% at ~40 mm Hg LBNP. Shock index did not differ between HT and LT subjects at 45 mm Hg LBNP levels. ROC AUC for CRM was 0.95 (95% CI = 0.94–0.97) compared with 0.91 (0.89–0.94) for SI (p = 0.0002). Despite high sensitivity and specificity, SI delays time to detect reductions in central blood volume with failure to distinguish individuals with varying tolerances to central hypovolemia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bipolar Membranes Electrodialysis for Water Purification and Resource Recovery

Reverse osmosis concentrate (ROC) from inland brackish water desalination and wastewater recycling presents moderate salinity, posing significant challenges for treatment and disposal. Existing treatment technologies predominantly rely on energy-intensive thermal methods, large-area evaporation strategies, or deep-well disposal, which often result in the loss of water value. Electrified membrane brine treatment offers a promising alternative by utilizing renewable energy sources, enabling complete water recycling. This work proposes the development of next-generation bipolar membrane electrodialysis (BMED) systems capable of desalinating brine while simultaneously recovering valuable resources. However, several critical challenges remain in the areas of membrane engineering for BMED. These include: 1) decreased current efficiency during desalination due to the low conductivity of feed chambers, 2) fouling and scaling from multivalent ions and contaminants in the feed, and 3) the retention and carryover of ROC contaminants, including PFAS compounds. Our research focuses on the development of novel anion exchange membranes (AEMs) and cation exchange membranes (CEMs) based on synthesized multiblock copolymers. We investigate the effects of block length, ion exchange capacity (IEC), and polymer backbone structure on cation and anion transport (e.g., Na+, Cl-, OH-, H+) for both our synthesized membranes and commercial membranes. Fundamental properties of these membranes, such as water uptake, IEC, and ionic conductivity, are also evaluated to optimize performance for BMED applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Oscillatory Response of Light-Weight Wind Turbine Rotors under Controlled Gust Pulses

Given the industry-wide trend of continual increases in the size of utility-scale wind turbines, a point will come where reductions will need to be made in terms of the weight of the turbine’s blades to ensure they can be as long as needed without sacrificing structural stability. One such technique that may be considered is to decrease the material used for the shell and spar cap. While this will solve the weight issue, it creates a new one entirely—less material for the shell and spar cap will in turn create blades that are more flexible than what is currently used. This article aims to investigate how the oscillatory response of light-weight wind turbine rotors is affected by these flexibility changes. The object of our study is the Sandia National Lab National Rotor Testbed (SNL-NRT) wind turbine, which the authors investigated in the course of a research project supported by SNL. Using a reduced-order characterization (ROC) technique based on controlled gust pulses, introduced by the authors in a previous work, the aeroelastic dynamics of the NRT’s original baseline blade design and several of its flexible variations were studied via numerical simulations employing the CODEF multiphysics suite. Results for this characterization are presented and analyzed, including a generalization of the ROC of the SNL-NRT oscillatory dynamics to larger machines with geometrical similarity. The latter will prove to be valuable in terms of extrapolating results from the present investigation and other ongoing studies to the scale of current and future commercial machines.

Ponta, Fernando (ORCID:0000000321032864)↗

NASA NTRS1992

The effects of thermal gradients on the Mars Observer Camera primary mirror

The paper discusses the effect of thermal gradients on the optical performance of the primary mirror of Mars Observer Camera (MOC), which will be launched on the Mars Observer spacecraft in September 1992. It was found that mild temperature gradients can have a large effect on the mirror surface figure, even for relatively low coefficient-of-thermal-expansion materials. However, in the case of the MOC primary mirror, it was found that the radius of curvature (ROC) of the reflective surface of the mirror changed in a nearly linear fashion with the radial temperature gradient, with little additional aberration. A solid-state ROC controller using the thermal gradient effect was implemented and verified.

Applewhite, Roger W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Manual discrimination of force

Optimal design of human-machine interfaces for teleoperators and virtual-environment systems which involve the tactual and kinesthetic modalities requires knowledge of the human's resolving power in these modalities. The resolution of the interface should be appropriately matched to that of the human operator. We report some preliminary results on the ability of the human hand to distinguish small differences in force under a variety of conditions. Experiments were conducted on force discrimination with the thumb pushing an interface that exerts a constant force over the pushing distance and the index finger pressing against a fixed support. The dependence of the sensitivity index d' on force increment can be fit by a straight line through the origin and the just-noticeable difference (JND) in force can thus be described by the inverse of the slope of this line. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was measured by varying the a priori probabilities of the two alternatives, reference force and reference force plus an increment, in one-interval, two-alternative, forced-choice experiments. When plotted on normal deviate coordinates, the ROC's were roughly straight lines of unit slope, thus supporting the assumption of equal-variance normal distributions and the use of the conventional d' measure. The JND was roughly 6-8 percent for reference force ranging from 2.5 to 10 newtons, pushing distance from 5 to 30 mm, and initial finger-span from 45 to 125 mm. Also, the JND remained the same when the subjects were instructed to change the average speed of pushing from 23 to 153 mm/sec. The pushing was terminated by reaching either a wall or a well, and the JND's were essentially the same in both cases.

Pang, Xiao-Dong↗

NASA NTRS2007

Usefulness of Derived Frank Lead Parameters in Screening for Coronary Artery Disease and Cardiomyopathy

We investigated the accuracy of several known as well as newly-introduced derived Frank-lead ECG parameters in differentiating healthy individuals from patients with obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and cardiomyopathy (CM). Advanced high-fidelity 12-lead ECG tests (approx. 5-min supine) were first performed on a "training set" of 99 individuals: 33 with ischemic or dilated CM and low ejection fraction (EF less than 40%); 33 with catheterization-proven obstructive CAD but normal EF; and 33 age-/gender-matched healthy controls. The following derived Frank lead parameters were studied for their accuracy in detecting CAD and CM: the spatial ventricular gradient (VG), including its beat-to-beat coefficient of variability (VG CV); the spatial mean QRS (SM-QRS) and T-waves (SM-T) and their beat-to-beat coefficients of variability; the spatial ventricular activation time (VAT); the mean and maximum spatial QRS-T angles; and standard late potentials parameters (RMS40, fQRSD and LAS). Several of these parameters were accurate in discriminating between the control group and both diseased groups at p less than 0.0001. For example the fQRSD, VG CV, mean spatial QRS-T angle and VG minus SM-QRS (which is similar to the SM-T) had retrospective areas under the ROC curve of 0.78, 0.78, 0.80, and 0.84 (CAD vs. controls) and 0.93, 0.88, 0.98 and 0.99 (CM vs. controls), respectively. The single most effective parameter in discriminating between the CAD and CM groups was the spatial VAT (44 plus or minus 5.8 vs. 53 plus or minus 9.9 ms, p less than 0.0001), with an area under the ROC curve of 0.80. Since subsequent prospective analyses using new groups of patients and healthy subjects have yielded only slightly less accurate results, we conclude that derived Frank-lead parameters show great promise for potentially contributing to the development of a rapid and inexpensive resting ECG-based screening test for heart disease.

DePalma, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Construction and Use of Resting 12-Lead High Fidelity ECG "SuperScores" in Screening for Heart Disease

We investigated the accuracy of several conventional and advanced resting ECG parameters for identifying obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and cardiomyopathy (CM). Advanced high-fidelity 12-lead ECG tests (approx. 5-min supine) were first performed on a "training set" of 99 individuals: 33 with ischemic or dilated CM and low ejection fraction (EF less than 40%); 33 with catheterization-proven obstructive CAD but normal EF; and 33 age-/gender-matched healthy controls. Multiple conventional and advanced ECG parameters were studied for their individual and combined retrospective accuracies in detecting underlying disease, the advanced parameters falling within the following categories: 1) Signal averaged ECG, including 12-lead high frequency QRS (150-250 Hz) plus multiple filtered and unfiltered parameters from the derived Frank leads; 2) 12-lead P, QRS and T-wave morphology via singular value decomposition (SVD) plus signal averaging; 3) Multichannel (12-lead, derived Frank lead, SVD lead) beat-to-beat QT interval variability; 4) Spatial ventricular gradient (and gradient component) variability; and 5) Heart rate variability. Several multiparameter ECG SuperScores were derivable, using stepwise and then generalized additive logistic modeling, that each had 100% retrospective accuracy in detecting underlying CM or CAD. The performance of these same SuperScores was then prospectively evaluated using a test set of another 120 individuals (40 new individuals in each of the CM, CAD and control groups, respectively). All 12-lead ECG SuperScores retrospectively generated for CM continued to perform well in prospectively identifying CM (i.e., areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.95), with one such score (containing just 4 components) maintaining 100% prospective accuracy. SuperScores retrospectively generated for CAD performed somewhat less accurately, with prospective areas under the ROC curve typically in the 0.90-0.95 range. We conclude that resting 12-lead high-fidelity ECG employing and combining the results of several advanced ECG software techniques shows great promise as a rapid and inexpensive tool for screening of heart disease.

Schlegel, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Technical Progress on the Ares I-X Flight Test

Ares I-X will be NASA's first test flight for a new human-rated launch vehicle since 1981, and the team is well on its way toward completing the vehicle's design and hardware fabrication for an April 2009 launch. This uncrewed suborbital development test flight gives NASA its first opportunities to: gather critical data about the flight dynamics of the integrated launch vehicle; understand how to control its roll during flight; better characterize the stage separation environments during future flight; and demonstrate the first stage recovery system. The Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle (FTV) incorporates a mix of flight and mockup hardware. It is powered by a four-segment solid rocket booster, and will be modified to include a fifth, spacer segment; the upper stage, Orion crew exploration vehicle, and launch abort system are simulator hardware to make the FTV aerodynamically similar to the same size, shape, and weight of Ares I. The Ares IX first stage includes an existing Shuttle solid rocket motor and thrust vector control system controlled by an Ascent Thrust Vector Controller (ATVC) designed and built by Honeywell International. The avionics system will be tested in a dedicated System Integration Laboratory located at Lockheed Martin Space Systems (LMSS) in Denver, Colorado. The Upper Stage Simulator (USS) is made up of cylindrical segments that will be stacked and integrated at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for launch. Glenn Research Center is already building these segments, along with their internal access structures. The active Roll Control System (RoCS) includes two thruster units harvested from Peacekeeper missiles. Duty cycle testing for RoCS was conducted, and fuel tanking and detanking tests will occur at KSC in early 2008. This important flight will provide valuable experience for the ground operations team in integrating, stacking, and launching Ares I. Data from Ares I-X will ensure the safety and reliability of America's newest launch vehicle.

Davis, S.R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Signal Detection Theory Applied to Helicopter Transmission Diagnostic Thresholds

Helicopter Health Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) have potential for providing data to support increasing the service life of a dynamic mechanical component in the transmission of a helicopter. Data collected can demonstrate the HUMS condition indicator responds to a specific component fault with appropriate alert limits and minimal false alarms. Defining thresholds for specific faults requires a tradeoff between the sensitivity of the condition indicator (CI) limit to indicate damage and the number of false alarms. A method using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to assess CI performance was demonstrated using CI data collected from accelerometers installed on several UH60 Black Hawk and AH64 Apache helicopters and an AH64 helicopter component test stand. Results of the analysis indicate ROC curves can be used to reliably assess the performance of commercial HUMS condition indicators to detect damaged gears and bearings in a helicopter transmission.

Dempsey, Paula J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Signal Detection Theory Applied to Helicopter Transmission Diagnostic Thresholds

Dempsey, Paula J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Radius of Curvature Measurement of Large Optics Using Interferometry and Laser Tracker

The determination of radius of curvature (ROC) of optics typically uses either a phase measuring interferometer on an adjustable stage to determine the position of the ROC and the optics surface under test. Alternatively, a spherometer or a profilometer are used for this measurement. The difficulty of this approach is that for large optics, translation of the interferometer or optic under test is problematic because of the distance of translation required and the mass of the optic. Profilometry and spherometry are alternative techniques that can work, but require a profilometer or a measurement of subapertures of the optic. The proposed approach allows a measurement of the optic figure simultaneous with the full aperture radius of curvature.

Hagopian, John↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Ares I Launch Vehicle Roll and Reaction Control Systems Lessons Learned

On April 15, 2010 President Barak Obama made the official announcement that the Constellation Program, which included the Ares I launch vehicle, would be canceled. NASA s Ares I launch vehicle was being designed to launch the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, returning humans to the moon, Mars, and beyond. It consisted of a First Stage (FS) five segment solid rocket booster and a liquid J-2X Upper Stage (US) engine. Roll control for the FS was planned to be handled by a dedicated Roll Control System (RoCS), located on the connecting interstage. Induced yaw or pitch moments experienced during FS ascent would have been handled by vectoring of the booster nozzle. After FS booster separation, the US Reaction Control System (ReCS) would have provided the US Element with three degrees of freedom control as needed. The lessons learned documented in this paper will be focused on the technical designs and producibility of both systems along with the partnership between NASA and Boeing, who was on contract to build the Ares I US Element, which included the FS RoCS and US ReCS. In regards to partnership, focus will be placed on integration along with technical work accomplished by Boeing with special emphasis on each task order. In summary, this paper attempts to capture key lessons learned that should be helpful in the development of future launch vehicle RCS designs.

Butt, Adam↗

NASA NTRS2012

Best Practices from the Design and Development of the Ares I Launch Vehicle Roll and Reaction Control Systems

On April 15, 2010 President Barak Obama made the official announcement that the Constellation Program, which included the Ares I launch vehicle, would be canceled. NASA s Ares I launch vehicle was being designed to launch the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, returning humans to the moon, Mars, and beyond. It consisted of a First Stage (FS) five segment solid rocket booster and a liquid J-2X Upper Stage (US) engine. Roll control for the FS was planned to be handled by a dedicated Roll Control System (RoCS), located on the connecting interstage. Induced yaw or pitch moments experienced during FS ascent would have been handled by vectoring of the booster nozzle. After FS booster separation, the US Reaction Control System (ReCS) would have provided the US Element with three degrees of freedom control as needed. The best practices documented in this paper will be focused on the technical designs and producibility of both systems along with the partnership between NASA and Boeing, who was on contract to build the Ares I US Element, which included the FS RoCS and US ReCS. In regards to partnership, focus will be placed on integration along with technical work accomplished by Boeing. This will include detailed emphasis on task orders developed between NASA and Boeing that were used to direct specific work that needed to be accomplished. In summary, this paper attempts to capture key best practices that should be helpful in the development of future launch vehicle and spacecraft RCS designs.

Butt, Adam↗

NASA NTRS2012

On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization using Ground-based Coronagraphs

The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We propose a formal comparison of techniques using a blind data challenge with an evaluation of performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012

coronagraphs↗

NASA NTRS2012

On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization using Ground-Based Coronagraphs

The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We provide a formal comparison of techniques through a blind data challenge and evaluate performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012.

instrumentation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance of the Primary Mirror Center-of-curvature Optical Metrology System During Cryogenic Testing of the JWST Pathfinder Telescope

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) primary mirror (PM) is 6.6 m in diameter and consists of 18 hexagonal segments, each 1.5 m point-to-point. Each segment has a six degree-of-freedom hexapod actuation system and a radius-of-curvature (RoC) actuation system. The full telescope will be tested at its cryogenic operating temperature at Johnson Space Center. This testing will include center-of-curvature measurements of the PM, using the Center-of-Curvature Optical Assembly (COCOA) and the Absolute Distance Meter Assembly (ADMA). The COCOA includes an interferometer, a reflective null, an interferometer-null calibration system, coarse & fine alignment systems, and two displacement measuring interferometer systems. A multiple-wavelength interferometer (MWIF) is used for alignment & phasing of the PM segments. The ADMA is used to measure, and set, the spacing between the PM and the focus of the COCOA null (i.e. the PM center-of-curvature) for determination of the ROC. The performance of these metrology systems was assessed during two cryogenic tests at JSC. This testing was performed using the JWST Pathfinder telescope, consisting mostly of engineering development & spare hardware. The Pathfinder PM consists of two spare segments. These tests provided the opportunity to assess how well the center-of-curvature optical metrology hardware, along with the software & procedures, performed using real JWST telescope hardware. This paper will describe the test setup, the testing performed, and the resulting metrology system performance. The knowledge gained and the lessons learned during this testing will be of great benefit to the accurate & efficient cryogenic testing of the JWST flight telescope.

optical testing↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Overview of Communications Technology and Development Efforts for 2015 SBIR Phase I

This report highlights innovative SBIR 2015 Phase I projects specifically addressing areas in Communications Technology and Development which is one of six core competencies at NASA Glenn Research Center. There are fifteen technologies featured with emphasis on a wide spectrum of applications such as novel solid state lasers for space-based water vapor dial; wide temperature, high voltage and energy density capacitors for aerospace exploration; instrument for airborne measurement of carbonyl sulfide; high-power tunable seed laser for methane Lidar transmitter; ROC-rib deployable ka-band antenna for nanosatellites; a SIC-based microcontroller for high-temperature in-situ instruments and systems; improved yield, performance and reliability of high-actuator-count deformable mirrors; embedded multifunctional optical sensor system; switching electronics for space-based telescopes with advanced AO systems; integrated miniature DBR laser module for Lidar instruments; and much more. Each article in this booklet describes an innovation, technical objective, and highlights NASA commercial and industrial applications. space-based water vapor dial; wide temperature, high voltage and energy density capacitors foraerospace exploration; instrument for airborne measurement of carbonyl sulfide; high-power tunable seed laser formethane Lidar transmitter; ROC-rib deployable ka-band antenna for nanosatellites.

space-based water vapor dial; wide temperature↗