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Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗

The Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10 - 30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

air transportation system↗

Multi-Model Impacts of Climate Change on Pollution Transport from Global Emission Source Regions

The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate model (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end of the 21st century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley Cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height, although a poleward shift in the midlatitude jets may also play an important role in the extra-tropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over EquatorialCentral Africa, extending from the surface to the mid troposphere which is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.

Tropospheric Transport↗

Methodology to Assess the Changing Risk of Yield Failure Due to Heat and Drought Stress Under Climate Change

While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.

Climate risk assessment↗

NASA GeneLab RNASeq Consensus Pipeline: A Nextflow Implementation

The NASA GeneLab project (genelab.nasa.gov) seeks to accelerate space biology research through cataloging and democratizing omics data. Since raw omics data is largely inaccessible to non-bioinformaticians, GeneLab works with the scientific community to develop standard processing pipelines to generate and publish processed data. Unlike raw data, processed data has greater immediate value to a wide range of users with varying technical backgrounds and computational capabilities. Standardizing processing workflows is essential to match the pace of raw data generation, ensure reproducibility, and enable standardized processed data for comparison across datasets. Previously, GeneLab developed a standardized pipeline for processing RNAseq data, referred to as the ‘GeneLab RNAseq Consensus Pipeline (RCP)’, in collaboration with GeneLab’s Analysis Working Groups. The work presented here is a Nextflow implementation of GeneLab’s RCP that automates and accelerates data processing of RNASeq datasets hosted on GeneLab. In addition to the core data processing, the workflow also includes staging of GeneLab raw data and a robust verification and validation (V&V) program that runs after each processing step to identify errors in real-time, stop additional downstream computation, and preserve computational resources. The workflow, including the staging and V&V functionality, is open source for others to reuse and modify at https://github.com/nasa/GeneLab_Data_Processing/tree/master/RNAseq.

Jonathan Dejesus Oribello↗

NASA GeneLab RNASeq Consensus Pipeline: A Nextflow Implementation

The NASA GeneLab project (genelab.nasa.gov) seeks to accelerate space biology research through cataloging and democratizing omics data. Since raw omics data is largely inaccessible to non-bioinformaticians, GeneLab works with the scientific community to develop standard processing pipelines to generate and publish processed data. Unlike raw data, processed data has greater immediate value to a wide range of users with varying technical backgrounds and computational capabilities. Standardizing processing workflows is essential to match the pace of raw data generation, ensure reproducibility, and enable standardized processed data for comparison across datasets. Previously, GeneLab developed a standardized pipeline for processing RNAseq data, referred to as the ‘GeneLab RNAseq Consensus Pipeline (RCP)’, in collaboration with GeneLab’s Analysis Working Groups. The work presented here is a Nextflow implementation of GeneLab’s RCP that automates and accelerates data processing of RNASeq datasets hosted on GeneLab. In addition to the core data processing, the workflow also includes staging of GeneLab raw data and a robust verification and validation (V&V) program that runs after each processing step to identify errors in real-time, stop additional downstream computation, and preserve computational resources. The workflow, including the staging and V&V functionality, is open source for others to reuse and modify at https://github.com/nasa/GeneLab_Data_Processing/tree/master/RNAseq.

Jonathan D Oribello↗

Planetary observations with the Tidbinbilla interferometer

Radio observations at a wavelength of 13.1 cm of Saturn and Uranus made with the Tidbinbilla interferometer during 1978 and 1979 are summarized. The observations were made with 64-m and 26-m antennas on a 200-m north-south baseline at a bandwidth of 12 MHz with RCP polarization and a primary beamwidth of about 12 arcmin. A flux density of 198 + or - 15 mJy was measured for Saturn, which indicates a surface temperature, corrected for the occulting effect of the rings, of 191 + or - 15 K, in excellent agreement with previous determinations. With the use of a background subtraction technique to remove the local background confusion, Uranus was found to have a flux density of 11.7 + or - 0.8 mJy, indicating a disk-averaged brightness temperature of 255 + or - 18 K. The increase in Uranus brightness temperature over that measured 15 years previously is attributed to variations in temperature or opacity below the cloud tops, or to a reduction in relative ammonia abundance most likely reflecting a change in the aspect of the planet as viewed from earth.

Batty, M. J.↗

On the relationship between the greenhouse effect, atmospheric photochemistry, and species distribution

The coupling that exists between infrared opacity changes and tropospheric (and to a lesser extent stratospheric) chemistry is explored in considerable detail, and the effects arising from various perturbations are examined. The studies are carried out with a fully coupled one-dimensional radiative-convective-photochemical model (RCP) that extends from the surface to 53.5 km and has the capability of calculating surface temperature changes due to both chemical and radiative perturbations. The model encompasses contemporary atmospheric chemistry and photochemistry involving the O(x), HO(x), NO(x), and Cl(x) species.

Callis, L. B.↗

Physical optics analysis of a 4-reflector antenna, part 2

The results of a rigorous analysis of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-m antenna S-band (2.295-GHz) RF performance are presented. Previous estimation of 1.6 dB S-band gain improvement of the 70-m antenna over the 64-m antenna has been revised to 1.5 dB by this analysis. The S-band right circularly polarized (RCP) beam position offset relative to X-band (8.45-GHz) beam position is predicted to be 0.0045 deg. (0.04 beamwidth). The effective S-band gain loss resulting from non-coincidence with the X-band is predicted to be 0.02 dB. Therefore, this is no longer a concern for the 64-m to 70-m upgrade project.

Cha, A. G.↗

Analysis of the ICE combiner for multiple antenna arraying

The passage of the International Cometary Explorer (ICE) through the tail of comet Giacobini-Zinner took place on September 11, 1985, at approximately 11:04 GMT. The signal-to-noise ratio of the data received from the ICE spacecraft during the comet encounter was improved by arraying the 64-m antenna channels A and B (RCP and LCP) with the two 34-m antennas. Specially designed combiners were built to combine the signals received by the three antennas at the different DSN sites to ensure that the spacecraft's weak signal was received. Although the ICE spacecraft was built with a 5-W transmitter and with a small antenna designed to provide data from no farther than 1 million miles, these combiners provided enough signal margin during the encounter to receive the ICE transmitted data from within the tail of comet Giacobini-Zinner, 44 million miles from earth.

Foster, C.↗

Development and evaluation of superconducting circuit elements

An approach to the application of high Tc ceramic superconductors to practical circuit elements was developed and demonstrated. This method, known as the rigid-conductor process (RCP), involves the combination of a pre-formed, sintered, and tested superconductor material with an appropriate, rigid substrate via an epoxy adhesive which also serves to encapsulate the element from the ambient environment. Emphasis was on the practical means to achieve functional, reliable, and reproducible components. Although all of the work described in this report involved a YBa2Cu3Osub(7-x) high Tc superconductor material, the techniques developed and conclusions reached are equally applicable to other high Tc materials.

Haertling, Gene H.↗

Ceramic superconducting components

An approach to the application of high-Tc ceramic superconductors to practical circuit elements was developed and demonstrated. This method, known as the rigid conductor process (RCP), involves the mounting of a preformed, sintered, and tested superconductor material onto an appropriate, rigid substrate with an epoxy adhesive which also serves to encapsulate the element from the ambient environment. Circuit elements such as straight conductors, coils and connectors were fabricated from YBa2Cu3O(7-x) superconducting material. Performance results are included for a low-noise low-thermal-conductivity superconducting grounding link for NASA.

Haertling, G. H.↗

Network issues for large mass storage requirements

File Servers and Supercomputing environments need high performance networks to balance the I/O requirements seen in today's demanding computing scenarios. UltraNet is one solution which permits both high aggregate transfer rates and high task-to-task transfer rates as demonstrated in actual tests. UltraNet provides this capability as both a Server-to-Server and Server-to-Client access network giving the supercomputing center the following advantages highest performance Transport Level connections (to 40 MBytes/sec effective rates); matches the throughput of the emerging high performance disk technologies, such as RAID, parallel head transfer devices and software striping; supports standard network and file system applications using SOCKET's based application program interface such as FTP, rcp, rdump, etc.; supports access to the Network File System (NFS) and LARGE aggregate bandwidth for large NFS usage; provides access to a distributed, hierarchical data server capability using DISCOS UniTree product; supports file server solutions available from multiple vendors, including Cray, Convex, Alliant, FPS, IBM, and others.

Perdue, James↗

An Investigation of Multipath Effects on the GPS System During Auto-Rendezvous and Capture

The proposed use of a Cargo Transport Vehicle (CTV) to carry hardware to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) during the construction phase of the SSF project requires remote maneuvering of the CTV. The CTV is not a manned vehicle. Obtaining the relative positions of the CTV and SSF for remote auto-rendezvous and capture (AR&C) scenarios will rely heavily on the Global Positioning System (GPS). The GPS system is expected to guide the CTV up to a distance of 100 to 300 meters from the SSF. At some point within this range, an optical docking system will take over the remote guidance for capture. During any remote guidance by GPS it is possible that significant multipath signals may be caused by large objects in the vicinity of the module being remotely guided. This could alter the position obtained by the GPS system from the actual position. Due to the nature of the GPS signals, it has been estimated that if the difference in distance between the Line of Sight (LOS) path and the multipath is greater than 300 meters, the GPS system is capable of discriminating between the direct signal and the reflected (or multipath) signal. However, if the path difference is less than 300 meters, one must be concerned. This report details the work accomplished by the Electromagnetic Simulations Laboratory at Marquette University over the period December 1993 to May 1995. This work is an investigation of the strength and phase of a multipath signal arriving at the CTV relative to the direct or line of sight (LOS) signal. The signal originates at a GPS satellite in half geo-stationary orbit and takes two paths to the CTV: (1) the direct or LOS path from the GPS satellite to the CTV; and (2) a scattered path from the GPS satellite to the SSF module and then to the CTV. The scattering from a cylinder has been computed using the physical optics approximation for the current. No other approximations or assumptions have been made including no assumptions regarding the far field or Fresnel field approximations. The integrations required to obtain the scattered field have been computed numerically using an N dimensional Romberg integration. The total scattered electric field is then projected onto the RCP component in the direction of propagation only. The direct or line of sight signal is then used to compute the relative strength and phase of the scattered field. The trajectory of the CTV has been parameterized into 4,214 points that are calculated for each of the geometries investigated. The motion of the CTV between points is small enough for the magnitude data (dB down from direct signal) to appear very smooth; however, because of the distances and wavelengths involved, the phase of the scattered field relative to the direct signal varies very rapidly.

Richie, James E.↗

Parallel Eclipse Project Checkout

Parallel Eclipse Project Checkout (PEPC) is a program written to leverage parallelism and to automate the checkout process of plug-ins created in Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform). Eclipse plug-ins can be aggregated in a feature project. This innovation digests a feature description (xml file) and automatically checks out all of the plug-ins listed in the feature. This resolves the issue of manually checking out each plug-in required to work on the project. To minimize the amount of time necessary to checkout the plug-ins, this program makes the plug-in checkouts parallel. After parsing the feature, a request to checkout for each plug-in in the feature has been inserted. These requests are handled by a thread pool with a configurable number of threads. By checking out the plug-ins in parallel, the checkout process is streamlined before getting started on the project. For instance, projects that took 30 minutes to checkout now take less than 5 minutes. The effect is especially clear on a Mac, which has a network monitor displaying the bandwidth use. When running the client from a developer s home, the checkout process now saturates the bandwidth in order to get all the plug-ins checked out as fast as possible. For comparison, a checkout process that ranged from 8-200 Kbps from a developer s home is now able to saturate a pipe of 1.3 Mbps, resulting in significantly faster checkouts. Eclipse IDE (integrated development environment) tries to build a project as soon as it is downloaded. As part of another optimization, this innovation programmatically tells Eclipse to stop building while checkouts are happening, which dramatically reduces lock contention and enables plug-ins to continue downloading until all of them finish. Furthermore, the software re-enables automatic building, and forces Eclipse to do a clean build once it finishes checking out all of the plug-ins. This software is fully generic and does not contain any NASA-specific code. It can be applied to any Eclipse-based repository with a similar structure. It also can apply build parameters and preferences automatically at the end of the checkout.

Crockett, Thomas M.↗