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27 records · Page 2

3D Radio Frequency Mapping and Polarization Observations Show Lightning Flashes Were Ignited by Cosmic‐Ray Showers

Previous 2D radio frequency interferometric observations showed that lightning is commonly started with a positive fast discharge (+FD) before a normal negative leader continues from the origin of the +FD to the ensuing lightning flash. However, the inception and development of the +FD cannot be convincingly explained by existing discharge theories. With our new 3D broadband interferometric mapping and polarization system, we observed that the +FD was sometimes followed by an even faster and more extensive negative discharge (−FD) that propagated backward and overshoot the origin by a few hundred meters, as reported by an earlier 2D study. Surprisingly, the signal polarization, which measures the orientation of the discharge current, systematically slanted from the discharge propagation direction and rotated between the two opposite discharges, showing the +FD and −FD were driven by other storm-independent factors in addition to the storm electric field, or otherwise all would align in the same direction. Assuming a cosmic-ray shower (CRS) piercing through the cloud immediately before the +FD/−FD discharge, we found that their path is consistent with a pre-ionized path by the CRS, and the polarizations for the two opposite discharges are consistent with the respective deflected trajectories of high-energy positrons and electrons in the geomagnetic and an electric field. We further analyzed the more commonly observed +FD and showed that it is consistent with the CRS interpretation, suggesting these flashes in thunderstorms were ignited by cosmic-ray showers.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Energy Spectrum and Mass Composition of Ultra-high-energy Cosmic Rays Originating from Relativistic Jets of Nearby Radio Galaxies

Relativistic jets of radio galaxies (RGs) are possible sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs). Recent studies combining relativistic hydrodynamic simulations with Monte Carlo particle transport have demonstrated that UHECRs can be accelerated to energies beyond 10 20 eV through shocks, turbulence, and relativistic shear in jet-induced flows of Fanaroff–Riley type RGs. The resulting time-asymptotic UHECR spectrum is well modeled by a double power law with an “extended” exponential cutoff, primarily shaped by relativistic shear acceleration. In this study, we adopt this novel source spectrum and simulate the propagation of UHECRs from nearby RGs using the CRPropa code. We focus on Virgo A (Vir A), Centaurus A (Cen A), Fornax A (For A), and Cygnus A (Cyg A), expected to be the most prominent UHECR sources among RGs. We then analyze the energy spectrum and mass composition of UHECRs arriving at Earth. We find that, due to the extended high-energy tail in the source spectrum, UHECRs from Vir A, which has a higher Lorentz factor, exhibit a higher flux at the highest energies and a lighter mass composition at Earth compared to those from Cen A and For A with lower Lorentz factors. Despite Cyg A having an even higher Lorentz factor, the large distance limits its contribution. With a small number of nearby prominent RGs, our findings suggest that if RGs are the major sources of UHECRs, the energy spectrum and mass composition of observed UHECRs would exhibit hemispheric differences between the Northern and Southern skies at the highest energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Precision gyroscope from the helicity of light

We describe a gyroscope that measures rotation based on the effects of the rotation on the polarization of light. Rotation induces a differential phase shift in the propagation of left- and right-circularly polarized light and this phase shift can be measured in suitably designed interferometric setups. The signal in this setup is independent of the frequency of light, unlike various sources of noise such as vibrations, which cause phase shifts that depend on the frequency. Such vibrations are the practical limit on the sensitivity of conventional Sagnac-style optical interferometers that are typically used as gyroscopes. In the proposed setup, one can potentially mitigate this source of noise by simultaneously using two (or more) sources of light that have different frequencies. The signal in this setup scales with the total storage time of the light. Due to its frequency independence, it is thus most optimal to measure the signal using superconducting radio-frequency systems where the high finesse of the available cavities enables considerably longer storage times than is possible in an optical setup.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

Cutoff and Emergence of Dart Leaders in an Unbranched Positive Leader Simulation

Channel cutoff is the process by which an active lightning channel cools down, goes dark, and loses its ability to effectively conduct electricity. Current cutoff precedes several lightning phenomena, notably dart leaders and return strokes, but the process by which a hot, highly‐conducting leader channel can undergo current cutoff is poorly understood. In this work, we present self‐consistent simulations of positive leader propagation, which include coupled treatment of electrodynamics and plasma physics. The unstable positive leader spontaneously undergoes channel cutoff and creates the conditions for the emission of dart leaders, that is, it accumulates a packet of negative charge at the intersection between cutoff and conducting channel segments. A residual conductivity in the cutoff section facilitates the conversion of the electric field enhancement into a traveling wave, which retraces and reionizes the channel. This is critical for allowing the frail positive leader to keep propagating.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Full-wave modeling of RF waves in fusion plasmas with finite element method: Progress in past decades and its future role

This paper reviews the progress in computing radio frequency (RF) wave fields in fusion plasmas, specifically focusing on simulations utilizing the finite element method (FEM) over the past few decades. Computing RF wave fields in fusion plasmas presents unique challenges due to large simulation domains, complex antenna structures, non-local dielectric properties, and wide ranges of spatial scales. It highlights key developments and outlines future directions, primarily addressing waves in the ion cyclotron (IC) to lower hybrid (LH) frequency range. We begin with briefly revisiting earlier developments before the widespread availability of modern computer-aided engineering (CAE) software based on FEM. This historical perspective illuminates early progress and the physics difficulties that motivated ongoing work within the community. Modern wave simulations for RF antennas based on FEM are characterized by the use of detailed 3D antenna model geometry generated from engineering CAD software and localized wave dielectric model. Significant advancements have also been made in improving physics models to include phenomena such as RF sheath rectification and wave scattering. FEM-based RF simulations have also been applied to compute wave propagation in the core region, where the inclusion of non-local dielectric response is crucial. This is a challenging goal, and several promising approaches have been proposed in this area. Additionally, RF simulation development initiatives based on open-source libraries have gained popularity, demonstrating scalability and flexibility in extending physics models. This paper will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using such a publicly available FEM library.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Final Technical Report - Center for Simulation of Fusion Relevant RF Actuators

We have developed a suite of 3D electromagnetic field solvers, both FEM and FDTD based, that account for the RF antenna and vacuum vessel geometries with unprecedented accuracy. Workflows were developed that make it possible to translate CAD models for the antenna and vacuum vessel to physics meshes for RF wave simulation. Nonlinear RF sheath formation has been incorporated self-consistently as a boundary condition in these solvers. We have also carried out extensive studies of the impact of RF sheaths on the ion energy angle distribution at plasma-material interfaces, using high fidelity particle-in-cell codes. Comprehensive simulation models were developed to assess the impact of blob-like edge turbulence on RF wave propagation and the impact of the RF ponderomotive force on the plasma scrape-off layer (SOL). A fluid transport solver for the far-SOL was also developed which accounts for the high parallel to perpendicular heat anisotropy on an unstructured mesh, thus making it possible to precisely represent an antenna structure in the presence of edge transport. Finally we have developed a hierarchy of core wave propagation and absorption models that self-consistently combine continuum Fokker Planck and Monte Carlo treatments of fast ion evolution with ICRF full-wave field solvers and continuum Fokker Planck treatments of fast electron evolution with both full-wave and ray tracing models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Spatially resolved polarization swings in the supermassive binary black hole candidate OJ 287 with first Event Horizon Telescope observations

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope 1.3 mm observations of the supermassive binary black hole candidate OJ 287. The observations achieved an unprecedented angular resolution of 18 μas and reveal significant structural and polarization variability over just five days, marking the shortest timescale on which such changes have been directly imaged in this source. The inner jet exhibits a twisted ridgeline structure, with features displaying apparent superluminal motions up to about 22 c. The linear polarization maps reveal three main polarized features whose electric-vector position angles (EVPAs) change substantially over the time span of our observations, including a component with a radial polarization consistent with being produced by a recollimation shock. Most notably, we directly resolved two innermost jet components whose EVPAs rotate in opposite directions. The faster component, moving at 2.4 ± 0.9 μas/day (17.4 ± 6.5 c), exhibits counterclockwise EVPA swings of roughly 3.7° per day, while the slower component, with a proper motion of 1.4 ± 0.3 μas/day (10.2 ± 2.2 c), rotates clockwise at approximately 2.5° per day. Previous studies inferred helical magnetic fields in AGN jets from time-resolved or integrated polarization variability but lacked the angular resolution to directly image this effect. Our results provide spatially resolved evidence that a helical magnetic field threads the jet’s collimation and acceleration zone, ruling out models based on the superposition of unresolved components. Our analysis suggests that propagating shocks interact with a Kelvin–Helmholtz plasma instability, illuminating different phases of the helical magnetic field and producing the observed polarization spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, our model naturally accounts for the more rapid polarization rotation observed in the faster moving component. Our model predicts even more rapid swings in polarization, which could be tested with future observations featuring a more densely sampled time coverage.

OJ 287