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Results for “Propagation of Variance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Inference applied to the Solubility of Phase-3 and Phase-5

This Section covers an introduction to the objectives and techniques used in this analysis. The objectives of the report are given in Subsection 1.1. An introduction to aqueous thermodynamics and how variance might propagate through the relevant thermodynamic equations is given in Subsection 1.2. An introduction to Bayesian inference and its application to thermodynamic modeling is given in Subsection 1.3.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2006

Observations of Intermediate-Scale Diurnal Waves in the Equatorial Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere

The purpose of this study is to seek observational evidence for diurnal, vertically propagating inertia-gravity waves (IGWs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). Numerical modeling studies indicate that vertically propagating IGWs excited by tropical heating provide a significant source of momentum for the semiannual oscillation (SAO) in the equatorial zonal mean winds. The power spectrum of these waves has a strong diurnal component. We analyze global patterns of ascending and descending node differences in MLT satellite temperatures, which are assumed in this study to be proxies for waves of diurnal period. Juxtaposed upon the planetary-scale features are localized variations with longitudinal wavelengths ranging from 25 deg to 50 deg, and with vertical wavelengths between 13 and 25 km. These intermediate-scale variations are spatially coherent, and persist for several weeks. Their amplitudes generally increase with altitude, while their phase structures suggest both eastward and westward propagation. The variance of wave numbers 9-17 in the MLT is examined in relation to the underlying stratospheric zonal mean zonal gradient winds. Stronger variances generally coincide with periods where the underlying zonal mean winds are relatively light, or unidirectional. The weak inverse association between variance strength and zonal wind magnitude is suggestive of a wave filtering mechanism.

Lieberman, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Variance of phase fluctuations of waves propagating through a random medium

As an electromagnetic wave propagates through a random scattering medium, such as a forest, its energy is attenuated and random phase fluctuations are induced. The magnitude of the random phase fluctuations induced is important in estimating how well a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) can image objects within the scattering medium. The two-layer random medium model, consisting of a scattering layer between free space and ground, is used to calculate the variance of the phase fluctuations induced between a transmitter located above the random medium and a receiver located below the random medium. The scattering properties of the random medium are characterized by a correlation function of the random permittivity fluctuations. The effective permittivity of the random medium is first calculated using the strong fluctuation theory, which accounts for large permittivity fluctuations of the scatterers. The distorted Born approximation is used to calculate the first-order scattered field. A perturbation series for the phase of the received field in the Rytov approximation is then introduced and the variance of the phase fluctuations is also calculated assuming that the transmitter and receiver are in the paraxial limit of the random medium, which allows an analytic solution to be obtained. Results are compared using the paraxial approximation, scalar Green's function formulation, and dyadic Green's function formulation. The effects studied are the dependence of the variance of the phase fluctuations on receiver location in lossy and lossless regions, medium thickness, correlation length and fractional volume of scatterers, depolarization of the incident wave, ground layer permittivity, angle of incidence, and polarization.

Chu, Nelson C.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Enhanced Performance Controller Design for Stochastic Systems by Adding Extra State Estimation onto the Existing Closed Loop Control

To enhance the performance of the tracking property , this paper presents a novel control algorithm for a class of linear dynamic stochastic systems with unmeasurable states, where the performance enhancement loop is established based on Kalman filter. Without changing the existing closed loop with the PI controller, the compensative controller is designed to minimize the variances of the tracking errors using the estimated states and the propagation of state variances. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems has been analyzed in the mean-square sense. A simulated example is included to show the effectiveness of the presented control algorithm, where encouraging results have been obtained.

Stochastic coupling attenuation↗
NASA NTRS1999

Analysis of Small-Scale Atmospheric Gravity Waves Using UARS MLS Radiance Measurements

Gravity waves play an important role in determining atmospheric circulation and small-scale mixing. Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) 63-GHz radiances can be used to calculate small-scale wave variances at 30-80 km altitudes. The major results from this new data set are summarized in the following: (1) MLS radiance fluctuations are contributed mostly by gravity waves of small (about 100 km) horizontal and large (>10 km) vertical scales. (2) MLS observations show that variance enhancements are strongly correlated with the stratospheric polar vortices, tropospheric deep convection zones, and surface topography. (3) As expected for gravity wave propagation, the normalized wave variances grow exponentially with height in the stratosphere but saturate in the mesosphere. (4) The long-term variations of the wave variance are dominated by an annual cycle in the stratosphere and a semiannual cycle in the mesosphere. (5) Separate analyses of the ascending and descending measurements show that the variances are sensitive to wave propagation directions. The subtropical variances, which are associated with deep convection, are likely caused by the gravity waves that propagate upward and eastward in the westward background wind. Additional information contained in the original.

Wu, Dong L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Seven Years of ACTS Technology Verification Experiments Reviewed

The Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) was designed to achieve a 99.5-percent system availability rate and signals with less than one error in 10(exp 7) bits throughout the continental United States. To accomplish such a high rate of system availability, ACTS uses multiple narrow hopping beams and very small aperture terminal (VSAT) technology. In addition, ACTS uses an adaptive rain fade compensation protocol to reduce the negative effects of propagation on the system. To enhance knowledge on how propagation and system variances affect system availability, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field performed technology verification experiments over a 7-yr period (from September 1993 to the present). These experiments include T1VSAT System Availability, Statistical Rain Fade Compensation Characterization, Statistical Characterization of Ka-Band Propagation Effects on Communication Link Performance, and Multibeam Antenna Performance.

Acosta, Roberto J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward Time Synchronization in Delay Tolerant Network based Solar System Internetworking

The expanding presence in space will place an increased dependency on networked communications– a scalable communications infrastructure; that is, the Solar System Internet (SSI). Upcoming developments towards a SSI include NASA’s upcoming LunaNet, or lunar Internet, which provides multi-hop multi-path communications using Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN). DTN has been an active area of research and development, particularly in routing, security, and optimization. DTNs are marked by mobility, disconnection, and a wide variance of latencies (propagation and processing delays). In this paper, we outline progress towards a theory of time synchronization across such a network. An underlying assumption of DTN is that the network is time synchronized already, rather than synchronization being provided as a service. While this is necessary for schedule-based routing, which is necessarily prevalent in DTNs, it is so deeply ingrained as to be built into the primary unit of data in DTNs– the bundle. Indeed, a bundle’s creation timestamp and its time to live (called the lifetime) are based on time, and there are special recommendations for systems that lack accurate clocks. The assumption of time synchronization makes sense when limiting considerations to smaller-scale and more traditional space communication. However, just as end-to-end connectivity cannot be guaranteed in DTNs, neither can access to a reference or authoritative clock. In this more general case, it might be necessary to synchronize over time-varying meshes, and perhaps even to consider relativistic effects. Moreover, by imposing synchronization restrictions in order to sustain a network, the effectiveness of the network to achieve scalability will be necessarily muted. To work towards a time synchronization theory for DTNs, we build upon past successes in modeling DTNs using time-varying graphs and sheaves. This includes error and limitation estimation, which allows one to define domains over which schedule-based routing is possible, up to some threshold sensitivity. Despite the theoretical nature of these results, the approaches taken are also algorithmic, and hence lend themselves to practical implementations. The paper concludes with comparisons of the various methods along with suggestions for future work.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗
NASA NTRS2008

Global Gravity Wave Variances from Aura MLS: Characteristics and Interpretation

The gravity wave (GW)-resolving capabilities of 118-GHz saturated thermal radiances acquired throughout the stratosphere by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite are investigated and initial results presented. Because the saturated (optically thick) radiances resolve GW perturbations from a given altitude at different horizontal locations, variances are evaluated at 12 pressure altitudes between 21 and 51 km using the 40 saturated radiances found at the bottom of each limb scan. Forward modeling simulations show that these variances are controlled mostly by GWs with vertical wavelengths z 5 km and horizontal along-track wavelengths of y 100-200 km. The tilted cigar-shaped three-dimensional weighting functions yield highly selective responses to GWs of high intrinsic frequency that propagate toward the instrument. The latter property is used to infer the net meridional component of GW propagation by differencing the variances acquired from ascending (A) and descending (D) orbits. Because of improved vertical resolution and sensitivity, Aura MLS GW variances are 5?8 times larger than those from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) MLS. Like UARS MLS variances, monthly-mean Aura MLS variances in January and July 2005 are enhanced when local background wind speeds are large, due largely to GW visibility effects. Zonal asymmetries in variance maps reveal enhanced GW activity at high latitudes due to forcing by flow over major mountain ranges and at tropical and subtropical latitudes due to enhanced deep convective generation as inferred from contemporaneous MLS cloud-ice data. At 21-28-km altitude (heights not measured by the UARS MLS), GW variance in the tropics is systematically enhanced and shows clear variations with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, in general agreement with GW temperature variances derived from radiosonde, rocketsonde, and limb-scan vertical profiles.

MLS (MICROWAVE LIMB SOUNDER)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Overview ID/POV Process

This is a flowchart of the inventory difference/propagation of variance process, with steps such as determine all relevance transactions, group relevant transactions by affected MATLID, filter groups to S, F and identify required M's, etc.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Propagation of non-Gaussian voltage angle fluctuations in high-voltage power grids

Recent measurements have reported non-Gaussian tails in the distribution of frequency data in electric power grids. Large frequency deviations may induce grid instabilities and it is therefore crucial to understand how noise disturbances with long, non-Gaussian tails propagate. Here, we investigate how fluctuations in power feed-in, characterized by non-zero cumulants of their distribution, propagate through high-voltage power grids. Unlike previous investigations which focused on the white-noise limit, we consider the limit of long noise correlation time, where power feed-in fluctuates over times longer than the inherent dynamical time scales of the grid - the relevant regime for large-scale, high-voltage distribution grids. In this work, we show that in this limit, the skewness and kurtosis of the power feed-in distribution propagate similarly as its variance, independently of the distribution of inertia. Non-Gaussianities from individual sources of noise therefore persist throughout the entire network. This finding is corroborated by numerical results on a realistic model of the synchronous grid of continental Europe.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Driving mode analysis—How uncertain functional inputs propagate to an output

Abstract Driving mode analysis elucidates how correlated features of uncertain functional inputs jointly propagate to produce uncertainty in the output of a computation. Uncertain input functions are decomposed into three terms: the mean functions, a zero‐mean driving mode, and zero‐mean residual. The random driving mode varies along a single direction, having fixed functional shape and random scale. It is uncorrelated with the residual, and under linear error propagation, it produces an output variance equal to that of the full input uncertainty. Finally, the driving mode best represents how input uncertainties propagate to the output because it minimizes expected squared Mahalanobis distance amongst competitors. These characteristics recommend interpretation of the driving mode as the single‐degree‐of‐freedom component of input uncertainty that drives output uncertainty. We derive the functional driving mode, show its superiority to other seemingly sensible definitions, and demonstrate the utility of driving mode analysis in an application. The application is the simulation of neutron transport in criticality experiments. The uncertain input functions are nuclear data that describe how Pu reacts to bombardment by neutrons. Visualization of the driving mode helps scientists understand what aspects of correlated functional uncertainty have effects that either reinforce or cancel one another in propagating to the output of the simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differences in Tropical Rainfall in Aquaplanet Simulations With Resolved or Parameterized Deep Convection

Abstract This study investigates the effects of resolved deep convection on tropical rainfall and its multi‐scale variability. A series of aquaplanet simulations are analyzed using the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere with horizontal cell spacings from 120 to 3 km. The 3‐km experiment uses a novel configuration with 3‐km cell spacing between 20°S and 20°N and 15‐km cell spacing poleward of 30°N/S. A comparison of those experiments shows that resolved deep convection yields a narrower, stronger, and more equatorward intertropical convergence zone, which is supported by stronger nonlinear horizontal momentum advection in the boundary layer. There is also twice as much tropical rainfall variance in the experiment with resolved deep convection than in the experiments with parameterized convection. All experiments show comparable precipitation variance associated with Kelvin waves; however, the experiment with resolved deep convection shows higher precipitation variance associated with westward propagating systems. Resolved deep convection also yields at least two orders of magnitude more frequent heavy rainfall rates (>2 mm hr −1 ) than the experiments with parameterized convection. A comparison of organized precipitation systems demonstrates that tropical convection organizes into linear systems that are associated with stronger and deeper cold pools and upgradient convective momentum fluxes when convection is resolved. In contrast, parameterized convection results in more circular systems, weaker cold pools, and downgradient convective momentum fluxes. These results suggest that simulations with parameterized convection are missing an important feedback loop between the mean state, convective organization, and meridional gradients of moisture and momentum.

Rios‐Berrios, Rosimar↗
NASA NTRS2004

Model of Atmospheric Links on Optical Communications from High Altitude

Optical communication links have the potential to solve many of the problems of current radio and microwave links to satellites and high-altitude aircraft. The higher frequency involved in optical systems allows for significantly greater signal bandwidth, and thus information transfer rate, in excess of 10 Gbps, and the highly directional nature of laser-based signals eliminates the need for frequency-division multiplexing seen in radio and microwave links today. The atmosphere, however, distorts an optical signal differently than a microwave signal. While the ionosphere is one of the most significant sources of noise and distortion in a microwave or radio signal, the lower atmosphere affects an optical signal more significantly. Refractive index fluctuations, primarily caused by changes in atmospheric temperature and density, distort the incoming signal in both deterministic and nondeterministic ways. Additionally, suspended particles, such as those in haze or rain, further corrupt the transmitted signal. To model many of the atmospheric effects on the propagating beam, we use simulations based on the beam-propagation method. This method, developed both for simulation of signals in waveguides and propagation in atmospheric turbulence, separates the propagation into a diffraction and refraction problem. The diffraction step is an exact solution, within the limits of numerical precision, to the problem of propagation in free space, and the refraction step models the refractive index variances over a segment of the propagation path. By applying refraction for a segment of the propagation path, then diffracting over that same segment, this method forms a good approximation to true propagation through the atmospheric medium. Iterating over small segments of the total propagation path gives a good approximation to the problem of propagation over the entire path. Parameters in this model, such as initial beam profile and atmospheric constants, are easily modified in a simulation such as this, which allows for the rapid analysis of different propagation scenarios. Therefore, this method allows the development of a near-optimal system design for a wide range of situations, typical of what would be seen in different atmospheric conditions over a receiving ground station. A simulation framework based upon this model was developed in FORTRAN, and for moderate grid sizes and propagation distances these simulations are computable in reasonable time on a standard workstation. This presentation will discuss results thus far.

Subich, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2005

Sporadic E Morphology from GPS-CHAMP Radio Occultation

The scintillations of phase and amplitude in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the GPS radio occultation signal are caused by thin ionization layers. These thin irregular electron density layers in the E region ionosphere are often called sporadic E (Es). For a monthly retrieval of Es morphology we use the variances of the phase and SNR fluctuations of worldwide ~6000 GPS/CHAMP occultations in the E region. The Es climatology is studied globally with the SNR and phase variances in terms of monthly zonal means, seasonal maps, and diurnal and long-term variations. The zonal mean variances reveal strong, extended Es activities at summertime midlatitudes but weak, confined activities in wintertime high latitudes, peaking at ~105 km. Global maps at 105-km altitude show clear dependence of Es activities on the geomagnetic dip angle, where the summertime midlatitude Es occurs mostly at dip angles of 30 deg. - 60 deg. and the wintertime high-latitude enhancement occurs mostly at dip angles greater than 80 deg. The midlatitude Es variances exhibit a strong semidiurnal variation with peak hours near 0800 1000 and 2000 local solar time, respectively. The peak hours are delayed slightly with decreasing height, suggesting influences from the semidiurnal tide. To provide more insights on the observed SNR and phase variances, we model radio wave propagation for the CHAMP observing geometry under several perturbed cases in the E region ionosphere. The model simulations indicate that the SNR variance has the maximum response to Es perturbations at vertical wavelengths of 1.2 km, whereas the phase response maximizes at ~2 km (for the 1-s variance analysis). The characteristic scale depends little on the truncation time used in the SNR variance analysis, but it increases with the truncation time for the phase variances. Initial studies show that reasonable global Es morphology can be produced on a monthly and seasonal basis with the CHAMP one-antenna occultations. Better results from other existing and upcoming GPS occultation missions are anticipated in future studies, and they will significantly improve our understanding of this important phenomenon.

signal to noise ration (SNR)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unbalanced Nested Random Effects Estimation of Variance Components

To investigate the contributing factors of variance in the measurement of an iodine 127 (127I) sample, we implement a nested random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA). Historically, the reported uncertainty on a measurement of 127I has been obtained by methods of forward uncertainty propagation because there is typically only one replicate of a given sample for which to estimate the uncertainty. When samples are processed there are several types of quality control (QC) standards analyzed along-side the unknown samples with two to five replicates for each. Assuming the variance observed in these replicate QC standards is representative of that of the unknown samples, we use these data in a nested random effects ANOVA to estimate the total uncertainty of a measurement. We demonstrate this approach with two sets of measurements from Idaho National Laboratory and compare the results with the forward uncertainty propagation approach. Variance component estimates for the coarsest level of the nesting structure were most imprecise because replicates were most limited at these levels. We find that the results largely agree between forward propagation and ANOVA, and the greatest contributors of variance are due to instrument variation and chemical processing, with human processing being among the smallest contributors. This analysis provides reassurance that the reported uncertainties using forward propagation are reasonable and the process is well controlled. We propose a future designed experiment to increase replicates at the coarsest level of the hierarchy to improve estimates of these variance components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: what is the risk?

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making well-informed decisions in comparative LCA, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Under- or overestimation of output uncertainty (e.g. output variance) will lead to incorrect decisions in such matters. The presence of correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, can increase or decrease the the output variance. However, most LCA studies that include uncertainty analysis, ignore correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, which may lead to incorrect conclusions. Two approaches to include correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis were studied: an analytical approach and a sampling approach. The use of both approaches is illustrated for an artificial case study of electricity production. Results demonstrate that both approaches yield approximately the same output variance and sensitivity indices for this specific case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the analytical approach can be used to quantify the risk of ignoring correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation in LCA. We demonstrate that: (1) we can predict if including correlations among input parameters in uncertainty propagation will increase or decrease output variance; (2) we can quantify the risk of ignoring correlations on the output variance and the global sensitivity indices. Moreover, this procedure requires only little data. - Highlights: • Ignoring correlation leads to under- or overestimation of the output variance. • We demonstrated that the risk of ignoring correlation can be quantified. • The procedure proposed is generally applicable in life cycle assessment. • In some cases, ignoring correlation has a minimal effect on decision-making tools.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Open Combinatorial Diffraction Dataset Including Consensus Human and Machine Learning Labels with Quantified Uncertainty for Training New Machine Learning Models

Modern machine learning and autonomous experimentation schemes in materials science rely on accurate analysis of the data ingested by these models. Unfortunately, accurate analysis of the underlying data can be difficult, even for domain experts, complicating the training of the models intended to drive experiments. This is especially true when the goal is to identify the presence of weak signatures in diffraction or spectroscopic datasets. In this work, we examine a set of as-obtained diffraction data that track the phase transition from monoclinic to tetragonal in a Nb-doped VO2 film as a function of temperature and dopant concentration. We then task a set of domain experts and a set of machine learning experts with identifying which phase is present in each diffraction pattern manually and algorithmically, respectively; in both cases, the labels can vary dramatically, especially at the phase boundaries. We use the mode of the labels and the Shannon entropy as a method to capture, preserve and propagate consensus labels and their variance. Further we use the expert labels as a benchmark and demonstrate the use of Shannon entropy weighted scoring to test the performance of machine learning generated labels. Finally, we propose a material data challenge centered around generating improved labeling algorithms. This real-world dataset curated with expert labels can act as test bed for new algorithms. The raw data, annotations and code used in this study are all available online at data.gov and the interested reader is encouraged to replicate and improve the existing models

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring the propagation of mechanical discontinuity using data-driven causal discovery and supervised learning

Mechanical wave transmission through a material is influenced by the mechanical discontinuity in the material. The propagation of embedded discontinuities can be monitored by analyzing the wave-transmission measurements recorded by a multipoint sensor system placed on the surface of the material. The proposed workflow monitors the propagation of mechanical discontinuity through three stages, namely initial, intermediate, and final stages, by using supervised learning followed by data-driven causal discovery. To the end, the workflow processes the multipoint waveform measurements resulting from a single impulse source, while considering the effects of wave attenuation, dispersion and multiple wave-propagation modes due to the discontinuity and material boundaries. Among various feature reduction techniques ranging from decomposition methods to manifold approximation methods, the features derived based on statistical parameterizations of the measured waveforms lead to reliable monitoring that is robust to changes in precision, resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio of the multipoint sensor measurements. The numbers of zero-crossing, negative-turning, and positive turning in the waveforms are the strongest causal signatures of the propagation of mechanical discontinuity. Higher order moments of the waveforms, such as variance, skewness and kurtosis, are also strong causal signatures of the propagation. Finally, the newly discovered causal signatures confirm that the statistical correlations and conventional feature rankings are not always statistically significant indicators of causality.

42 ENGINEERING↗