Engineering PapersSearch

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Prognostics Framework”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

205 records · Page 2

Gas permeation properties of amorphous zeolitic imidazolate framework membranes made by atomic/molecular layer deposition

Amorphous metal-organic framework (MOF) membranes are desirable because they may retain some of the molecular sieving properties of their crystalline counterparts while being free of grain boundary defects, which often hinder the consistent achievement of high membrane performance. However, current methods, like melting and compression, for fabricating amorphous MOF membranes involve multi-step processes that require the formation of a crystalline membrane first, that is then amorphized, and therefore, could be challenging to scale. Here, we utilize atomic/molecular layer deposition (ALD/MLD) of diethylzinc (DEZ) and 2-methylimidazole (2mIm) to directly synthesize ultrathin amorphous zeolitic imidazolate framework (aZIF) deposits on γ-alumina-coated α-alumina supports. As the number of ALD/MLD cycles increased from 10 to 300, gas permeances decreased while ideal selectivities increased. Mixture separation factors for C3H6/C3H8, CO2/N2, and H2/C3H8 as high as 4, 37, and 194, respectively, were obtained. At 200 °C and 2.5 bar equimolar feed of H2 and C3H8, a H2/C3H8 mixture separation factor of 185 is obtained with an H2 permeance of ca. 4.15x10-8 mol/m2-s-Pa (124 GPU). Additionally, the membrane achieves a CO2/N2 mixture separation factor of 37 at 25 °C and 1 bar with a CO2 permeance of ca. 3.96x10-8 mol/m2-s-Pa (118 GPU). Considering the vast array of compositionally distinct aZIFs that can be potentially deposited by this approach, an enormously large parameter space for membrane design is emerging to be explored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

EvoDiffMol: evolutionary diffusion framework for 3D molecular design with optimized properties

Designing molecules with specific target properties remains a fundamental challenge in computational chemistry. While existing approaches show promise, most rely on simplified representations like SMILES strings or 2D graphs that lack essential three-dimensional geometric information. We present EvoDiffMol, a computational framework that integrates evolutionary algorithms with three-dimensional diffusion models for property-driven molecular generation. The method operates through adaptive evolutionary optimization, where population-based selection guides the generation process toward desired property landscapes. EvoDiffMol supports both unconstrained molecular design and scaffold-constrained generation that preserves fixed substructures while optimizing complementary regions. Comprehensive evaluation demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving the highest drug-likeness score (0.94) among all compared state-of-the-art methods while maintaining excellent validity, uniqueness, and novelty. Beyond single property optimization, the framework demonstrates flexible multi-property optimization capabilities, simultaneously controlling multiple molecular descriptors including synthetic accessibility, lipophilicity, topological polar surface area, and clinically relevant ADMET properties such as cardiotoxicity (hERG) and intestinal permeability (Caco-2). This adaptability spans from simple descriptors to practical pharmaceutical endpoints without requiring complete model retraining. The framework achieves precise control over target property values, generating molecules with properties closely matching specified targets for both single and multiple descriptors. Scaffold-constrained experiments preserve fixed molecular cores while maintaining effective property optimization. The three-dimensional representation offers advantages in maintaining structural validity during iterative optimization, with potential for geometry-aware applications in materials science and drug discovery.

3D molecular generation

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND

A physically interpretable precursor framework for sub-seasonal prediction of Northern Hemisphere flash flourishing

Flash flourishing describes rapid vegetation increases that can quickly reshape land–atmosphere exchanges and impacts on ecosystem, yet its large-scale precursors, circulation context, and sub-seasonal predictability remain poorly understood. Here, we identified onset-stage circulation regimes across northern extratropical latitudes (NEL; >30°N) using 200 and 1000 hPa geopotential height, and examined their regional expressions over eastern Asia, western North America, and Europe. Flash flourishing onset in East Asian was associated with a baroclinic circulation regime and was preceded by a North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) precursor at a four-pentad lead. In contrast, onset in western North American and European preferentially occurred under barotropic regimes, preconditioned by Great Plains soil moisture at three-pentad lead and North Atlantic SST at a four-pentad lead, respectively. Ridge regression forecasts revealed regime-dependent sub-seasonal predictability, with mean out-of-sample R 2 exceeding 0.3 up to lead times of two pentads in East Asia, three pentads in western North America, and four pentads in Europe. Together, these findings established a mechanistic and regionally specific framework for anticipating rapid vegetation greening at sub-seasonal timescales.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing Univ. of Information Scienc

A rigorous framework for an improved Messinger/Myers model of ice accretion under conditions of variable property and unsteady aircraft icing

We analyse the Messinger/Myers model by critically evaluating simplifying assumptions through a rigorous formulation of the rime ice accretion process. We explore the effects of both constant and variable ice density and thermal conductivity, along with the effects of sublimation from the ice surface. The effects of key factors such as droplet impact rate, ambient temperature relative to the freezing temperature and the temperature difference between the ambient air and the airfoil surface are examined. Under these varying conditions, the present rigorous formulation is used to assess the significance of unsteady effects, variable ice properties and sublimation. We observe that the Myers model performs remarkably well in certain icing situations and analyse the reasons for this strong performance. We also show that partially relaxing the model’s assumptions can lead to poorer performance. The Myers model can lead to overprediction of ice surface temperature and correspondingly underprediction of transition time under conditions of relatively weak sublimation and surface cooling. A modified Myers model is presented, which can be used to recover near-perfect results under widely varying icing conditions of relevance. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Framework of compressive sensing and data compression for 4D-STEM

Four-dimensional Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (4D-STEM) is a powerful technique for high-resolution and high-precision materials characterization at multiple length scales, including the characterization of beam-sensitive materials. However, the field of view of 4D-STEM is relatively small, which in absence of live processing is limited by the data size required for storage. Furthermore, the rectilinear scan approach currently employed in 4D-STEM places a resolution- and signal-dependent dose limit for the study of beam sensitive materials. Improving 4D-STEM data and dose efficiency, by keeping the data size manageable while limiting the amount of electron dose, is thus critical for broader applications. Here we introduce a general method for reconstructing 4D-STEM data with subsampling in both real and reciprocal spaces at high fidelity. The approach is first tested on the subsampled datasets created from a full 4D-STEM dataset, and then demonstrated experimentally using random scan in real-space. The same reconstruction algorithm can also be used for compression of 4D-STEM datasets, leading to a large reduction (100 times or more) in data size, while retaining the fine features of 4D-STEM imaging, for crystalline samples.

4D-STEM

AutoBEM: A scalable framework for nationwide building energy simulation and retrofit evaluation in the United States

This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN

In Situ Tracking of Nonthermal Plasma Etching of ZIF-8 Films

Surface characterization is critical for understanding the processes used for preparing catalysts, sorbents, and membranes. Nonthermal plasma (NTP) is a process that achieves high reactivity at low temperatures and is used to tailor the surface properties of materials. In this work, we combine the capabilities of infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy (IRRAS) with NTP for the in situ interrogation of zeolitic imidazolate framework-8 (ZIF-8) thin films to probe modifications in the material induced by oxygen and nitrogen plasmas. The IRRAS measurements in oxygen plasma reveal etching of organic ligands with sequential removal of the methyl group and imidazole ring and with the formation of carbonyl moieties (C═O). In contrast, nitrogen plasma induces mild etching and grafting of nitrile groups (−C≡N). Scanning electron microscopy imaging shows that oxygen plasma, at prolonged times, significantly degrades the ZIF-8 film at the grain boundaries. Treatment of ZIF-8 membranes using mild plasma conditions yields a fivefold enhancement for H 2 /N 2 and CO 2 /CH 4 ideal selectivities and an eightfold enhancement for CO 2 /N 2 ideal selectivity. Additionally, the new tools described here can be used for spectroscopic in situ tracking of plasma-induced chemistry on thin films in general.

IRRAS

Microstructure prediction for Ti-22Al-25Nb in laser powder bed fusion

This work presents a physics-informed framework for predicting solidification morphology and defect susceptibility in additively manufactured Ti–22Al–25Nb across a broad processing space. The framework integrates solidification microstructure selection (SMS) analysis with a single-track defect-based printability map to establish a unified methodology linking processing parameters to both interfacial morphology and manufacturability. Thermal gradients G and solidification rates R are first computed using the Thermo-Calc Additive Manufacturing (TC-AM) module, a finite-interface-dissipation (FID) phase-field (PF) model coupled with CALPHAD method is then employed to systematically distinguish planar and dendritic regimes as functions of $G$ and $R$. By superimposing the printability map onto the morphology projections, a comprehensive process–structure framework is obtained. Across most processing conditions, the predicted microstructure is predominantly dendritic, while planar growth emerges only under selected laser power $P$ and scan speed $v$ combinations. In addition to morphology classification, the framework quantifies the dendritic area fraction and introduces a width-based morphology descriptor to characterize the spatial extent of planar/dendritic regions within the melt pool. It provides mechanistic insight into the interplay between solidification physics and defect formation, offering practical guidance for parameter selection and microstructural control in Ti–22Al–25Nb additive manufacturing (AM).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Optimization of the FRIB beam dump: a hybrid genetic algorithm and reinforcement learning approach

The operational envelope of high-power-density systems, such as particle accelerators and advanced nuclear energy systems, is critically constrained by the need to manage extreme thermal loads. To address this, we present a novel hybrid optimization framework combining a genetic algorithm (GA) with a soft actor-critic (SAC) deep reinforcement learning agent. This framework was applied to a practical high-heat-flux problem: redesigning the beam dump at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) for a power upgrade from 20 kW to 50 kW. The resulting design, validated by three-dimensional conjugate heat transfer simulations, suppresses hazardous hot spots and yields a markedly more uniform temperature distribution. This provides a robust operating margin, increasing the average power-handling capability by 72% relative to the current design, demonstrating the framework’s potential to solve complex thermal management challenges in both accelerator technology and advanced nuclear systems.

Accelerator

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods

Estimating Return on Investment for Energy Technical Assistance Programs

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of State and Community Energy Programs engaged the National Laboratory of the Rockies to assess the return on investment (ROI) of technical assistance (TA) programs that support state, local, and Tribal energy planning. Although TA delivers value through capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and knowledge transfer, these benefits are often intangible and challenging to monetize. This study reviews existing ROI frameworks and synthesizes the most relevant elements into a hybrid approach tailored to energy TA programs. The proposed framework integrates monetary and non-monetary outcomes through early logic model development, baseline data collection, and the use of proxies for intangible benefits. As a case study, this paper applies this approach to the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP), demonstrating how ROI can inform program design, data strategy, and performance assessment. Findings underscore that ROI should be applied selectively and planned from the outset to ensure data alignment and attribution accuracy. The framework offers TA practitioners a structured approach that can be leveraged for future programs to evaluate and communicate the multifaceted value of TA investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Effect of Entropic Constraints on the Thermodynamics of Molecular Adsorption in Nano‐Porous Materials

Abstract Gas separation is a critical industrial process that consumes a significant amount of energy due to the widely used techniques that are currently employed. Adsorptive materials—such as metal–organic frameworks (MOFs)—show promise as an energy‐efficient alternative. Of particular current interest are novel, temperature‐dependent separation processes in MOFs, such as the recently reported separation of ternary isomeric hydrocarbon mixtures within one and the same material. However, the mechanisms of these highly desirable separations remain poorly understood. Herein, through a combination of ab initio simulations and statistical mechanics, it is shown that the temperature dependence is the result of a constraint on the guest molecule's entropic degrees of freedom when loaded into the MOF, caused by the fortuitous tight fitting of the guest inside the pore. While the framework applies to all molecular adsorption in porous media, it is essential for the description of large molecules in small pores, which is demonstrated here using the separation of C6 isomers in Ca(H 2 tcpb) as a test case. The developed framework and analysis not only reveal the reason why separation occurs but also predict the temperatures at which it takes place, thus opening the door to newly designed MOFs with tailor‐made precision.

Chemistry

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan

A generative machine learning model for designing metal hydrides applied to hydrogen storage

Developing new metal hydrides is a critical step toward efficient hydrogen storage in carbon-neutral energy systems. However, existing materials databases, such as the Materials Project, contain a limited number of well-characterized hydrides, which constrains the discovery of optimal candidates. This work presents a framework that integrates causal discovery with a lightweight generative machine learning model to generate novel metal hydride candidates that may not exist in current databases. Using a dataset of 450 samples (270 training, 90 validation, and 90 testing), the model generates 1000 candidates. After ranking and filtering, six previously unreported chemical formulas and crystal structures are identified, four of which are validated by density functional theory simulations and show strong potential for future experimental investigation. Overall, the proposed framework provides a scalable and time-efficient approach for expanding hydrogen storage datasets and accelerating materials discovery.

generative model