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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

An Upper Bound on High Speed Satellite Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, PC †, have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum PC. If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but potentially useful Pc upper bound.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Launch Collision Probability

This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗
NASA NTRS1990

A time-dependent wave packet approach to atom-diatom reactive collision probabilities - Theory and application to the H + H2(J = 0) system

This paper describes a new approach to the study of atom-diatom reactive collisions in three dimensions employing wave packets and the time-dependent Schroedinger equation. The method uses a projection operator approach to couple the inelastic and reactive portions of the total wave function and optical potentials to circumvent the necessity of using product arrangement coordinates. Reactive transition probabilities are calculated from the state resolved flux of the wave packet as it leaves the interaction region in the direction of the reactive arrangement channel. The present approach is used to obtain such vibrationally resolved probabilities for the three-dimensional H + H2 (J = 0) hydrogen exchange reaction, using a body-fixed system of coordinates.

Neuhauser, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS1991

Collision probabilities in the presence of nebular gas drag

We are developing a model to determine what fraction of the planetesimals would have hit a protoplanet on their sunward journey as opposed to having a close approach and passing into an inferior orbit. The model involves direct numerical integration of restricted-three-body orbits using a predictor-corrector integrator. A simple gas drag law with a v(exp 2) dependence was also included in the equations of motion. Runs of 100 to 500 particles were already performed, while some future runs may require several times this number in order to get good impact statistics. All planetesimals start in superior orbits with semi-major axes 5 to 10 R(sub H) from the protoplanets, where R(sub H) is the protoplanet's Hill Sphere radius. The orbit is followed until the planetesimal passed into an inferior orbit at least 10 R(sub H) from the protoplanet. This process typically requires 10(exp 4) to 10(exp 5) orbits.

Kary, David M.↗