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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models for generative alloy design

Inverse material design is an extremely challenging optimization task made difficult by, in part, the highly nonlinear relationship linking performance with composition. Quantitative approaches have improved significantly owing to advances in high throughput experimentation and computational thermodynamics. However, existing physics-based tools are mostly forward models; input a chemistry and obtain a prediction. More recently the materials community has leveraged advances in the machine learning community to establish novel inverse design frameworks. Very recently denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been shown to be extremely powerful generators producing synthetic data of various modalities e.g. images, text, audio, tables, etc.. In this work a novel framework for alloy design and optimization is proposed leveraging these class of models. Five key generative tasks are demonstrated (1) unconditional generation (2) composition conditioned generation (3) property conditioned generation (4) multi-feedstock conditioned generation and (5) generative optimization. These methods were tested on three case studies: high entropy alloy design, superalloy binder jet additive manufacturing, and in-situ dual-feedstock wire-arc additive manufacturing. Results indicate that the established models are extremely flexible, expressive, and robust. The architecture’s flexibility and training procedure empower the model to learn complex intra-compositional and composition-property relationships. Furthermore, the probabilistic nature of these models makes them well suited for addressing solution non-uniqueness and tackling uncertainty quantification tasks. While the fidelity and quantity of the underlying training data is paramount, we envision that future alloy design frameworks will make extensive use of these kinds of machine learning models as “search” tools bolstering the utility of experimental and computational approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic Model for Low Altitude Trapped Proton Fluxes

A new approach is developed for the assessment of low altitude trapped proton fluxes for future space missions. Low altitude fluxes are dependent on solar activity levels due to the resulting heating and cooling of the upper atmosphere. However, solar activity levels cannot be accurately predicted far enough into the future to accommodate typical spacecraft mission planning. Thus, the approach suggested here is to evaluate the trapped proton flux as a function of confidence level for a given mission time period. This is possible because of a recent advance in trapped proton modeling that uses the solar 10.7 cm radio flux, a measure of solar cycle activity, to calculate trapped proton fluxes as a continuous function of time throughout the solar cycle. This trapped proton model is combined with a new statistical description of the 10.7 cm flux to obtain the probabilistic model for low altitude trapped proton fluxes. Results for proton energies ranging from 1.5 to 81.3 MeV are examined as a function of time throughout solar cycle 22 for various orbits. For altitudes below 1000 km, fluxes are significantly higher and energy spectra are significantly harder than those predicted by the AP8 model.

Xapsos, M. A.↗

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

Digital polycrystalline microstructure generation using diffusion probabilistic models

Accurate micromechanical simulation of polycrystalline materials requires a realistic digital representation of the grain scale microstructure. Here, this work demonstrates the use of a generative diffusion probabilistic model for synthesizing single phase polycrystalline realizations. The model performs well and is capable of producing realistic microstructures consisting of not just simple equiaxed structures but also structures exhibiting more complex spatial arrangements. Masked microstructure generation reveals that the model is context aware of morphological descriptors which may be encoded in the latent space. Training on more diverse data sets, with scaled up architectures, may enable development of future models capable of synthesizing even more complex microstructural features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Aircraft Trajectories for Dynamic Separation Volumes

With a proliferation of new and unconventional vehicles and operations expected in the future, the ab initio airspace design will require new approaches to trajectory prediction for separation assurance and other air traffic management functions. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic modeling of the trajectory of an aircraft when its intent is unknown. The approach uses a set of feature functions to constrain a maximum entropy probability distribution based on a set of observed aircraft trajectories. This model can be used to sample new aircraft trajectories to form an ensemble reflecting the variability in an aircraft's intent. The model learning process ensures that the variability in this ensemble reflects the behavior observed in the original data set. Computational examples are presented.

Lewis, Timothy A.↗

Towards universal unfolding of detector effects in high-energy physics using denoising diffusion probabilistic models

Correcting for detector effects in experimental data, particularly through unfolding, is critical for enabling precision measurements in high-energy physics. However, traditional unfolding methods face challenges in scalability, flexibility, and dependence on simulations. We introduce a novel approach to multidimensional object-wise unfolding using conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (cDDPM). Our method utilizes the cDDPM for a non-iterative, flexible posterior sampling approach, incorporating distribution moments as conditioning information, which exhibits a strong inductive bias that allows it to generalize to unseen physics processes without explicitly assuming the underlying distribution. Our results highlight the potential of this method as a step towards a "universal" unfolding tool that reduces dependence on truth-level assumptions, while enabling the unfolding of a wide range of measured distributions with improved adaptability and accuracy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Intracranial Pressure Effects on Optic Nerve Biomechanics

Altered intracranial pressure (ICP) is involved/implicated in several ocular conditions: papilledema, glaucoma and Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome. The biomechanical effects of altered ICP on optic nerve head (ONH) tissues in these conditions are uncertain but likely important. We have quantified ICP-induced deformations of ONH tissues, using finite element (FE) and probabilistic modeling (Latin Hypercube Simulations (LHS)) to consider a range of tissue properties and relevant pressures.

biomechanics↗

Tropical Cyclone Super Resolution using conditional diffusion denoising probabilistic model from mesoscale simulation to LES

Accurate modeling of tropical cyclone wind fields is essential for the design, risk assessment, and operational planning of offshore energy infrastructure. While mesoscale simulations are widely used thanks to their computational efficiency, they lack the necessary resolution to capture key features such as wind shear and veer profiles as well as the distribution turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). High-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) models on the other hand, can resolve turbulent structures and provide a more accurate representation of the complex wind field, albeit at a higher computational cost. To address this modeling gap, we introduce a two-part generative framework to enhance the resolution and physics-capturing ability of mesoscale simulations. First, a reduced-order model based on Karhunen–Loève (KL) decomposition is used to extract dominant spatial modes from one-dimensional mean wind profiles. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) is trained to map mesoscale mode weights to their LES counterparts, enabling accurate reconstruction of vertical velocity profiles. Second, a conditional Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Model (DDPM) is developed to super-resolve coarse and low-fidelity mesoscale velocity fields, recovering fine-scale turbulence structures and stress distributions. The framework is evaluated across different tropical cyclone intensity categories defined by the Saffir–Simpson scale and demonstrates strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The generated fields accurately reproduce spatial coherence, stress distributions, and spectral energy characteristics observed in LES data. By bridging the fidelity gap between mesoscale and LES outputs, this approach offers a scalable, data-driven solution for enhancing the representation of tropical cyclone wind fields, enabling more robust offshore energy infrastructure systems design in tropical-cyclone-prone areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stealthy Cyber Anomaly Detection On Large Noisy Multi-material 3D Printer Datasets Using Probabilistic Models

As Additive Layer Manufacturing (ALM) becomes pervasive in industry, its applications in safety critical component manufacturing are being explored and adopted. However, ALM's reliance on embedded computing renders it vulnerable to tampering through cyber-attacks. Sensor instrumentation of ALM devices allows for rigorous process and security monitoring, but also results in a massive volume of noisy data for each run. As such, in-situ, near-real-time anomaly detection is very challenging. The ideal algorithm for this context is simple, computationally efficient, minimizes false positives, and is accurate enough to resolve small deviations. In this paper, we present a probabilistic-model-based approach to address this challenge. To test our approach, we analyze current measurements from a polymer composite 3D printer during emulated tampering attacks. Our results show that our approach can consistently and efficiently locate small changes in the presence of substantial operational noise.

Yoginath, Srikanth↗

Effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models for fast and high-fidelity whole-event simulation in high-energy heavy-ion experiments

Artificial intelligence (AI) generative models, such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders, and normalizing flows, have been widely used and studied as efficient alternatives for traditional scientific simulations. However, they have several drawbacks, including training instability and inability to cover the entire data distribution, especially for regions where data are rare. This is particularly challenging for whole-event, full-detector simulations in high-energy heavy-ion experiments, such as sPHENIX at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and Large Hadron Collider experiments, where thousands of particles are produced per event and interact with the detector. This work investigates the effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) as an AI-based generative surrogate model for the sPHENIX experiment that includes the heavy-ion event generation and response of the entire calorimeter stack. DDPM performance in sPHENIX simulation data is compared with a popular rival, GANs. Results show that both DDPMs and GANs can reproduce the data distribution where the examples are abundant (low-to-medium calorimeter energies). Nonetheless, DDPMs significantly outperform GANs, especially in high-energy regions where data are rare. Additionally, DDPMs exhibit superior stability compared to GANs. The results are consistent between both central and peripheral centrality heavy-ion collision events. Moreover, DDPMs offer a substantial speedup of approximately a factor of 100 compared to the traditional Geant4 simulation method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic model for fracture mechanics service life analysis

The service longevity of complex propulsion systems, such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), can be at risk from several competing failure modes. Conventional life assessment practice focuses upon the most severely life-limited feature of a given component, even though there may be other, less severe, potential failure locations. Primary, secondary, tertiary failure modes, as well as their associated probabilities, must also be considered. Futhermore, these probabilities are functions of accumulated service time. Thus a component may not always succumb to the most severe, or even the most probable failure mode. Propulsion system longevity must be assessed by considering simultaneously the actions of, and interactions among, life-limiting influences. These include, but are not limited to, high frequency fatigue (HFF), low cycle fatigue (LCF), and subsequent crack propagation, thermal and acoustic loadings, and the influence of less-than-ideal nondestructive evaluation (NDE). An outline is provided for a probabilistic model for service life analysis, and the progress towards its implementation is reported.

Annis, Charles↗

A Language for Probabilistic Modeling of Scientific Data

We describe a portable container which allows specification of the probabilistic relations between several variables. The applications motivating this work are mainly scientific inference problems.

probabilistic modeling scientific data↗

Probabilistic modeling of solar power systems

The author presents a probabilistic approach based on Markov chain theory to model stand-alone photovoltaic power systems and predict their long-term service performance. The major advantage of this approach is that it allows designers and developers of these systems to analyze the system performance as well as the battery subsystem performance in the long run and determine the system design requirements that meet a specified service performance level. The methodology presented is illustrated by using data for a radio repeater system for the Boston, Massachusetts, location.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

A probabilistic model of a porous heat exchanger

This paper presents a probabilistic one-dimensional finite element model for heat transfer processes in porous heat exchangers. The Galerkin approach is used to develop the finite element matrices. Some of the submatrices are asymmetric due to the presence of the flow term. The Neumann expansion is used to write the temperature distribution as a series of random variables, and the expectation operator is applied to obtain the mean and deviation statistics. To demonstrate the feasibility of the formulation, a one-dimensional model of heat transfer phenomenon in superfluid flow through a porous media is considered. Results of this formulation agree well with the Monte-Carlo simulations and the analytical solutions. Although the numerical experiments are confined to parametric random variables, a formulation is presented to account for the random spatial variations.

Agrawal, O. P.↗

Sequential Inference of Hospitalization Electronic Health Records Using Probabilistic Models

In the dynamic hospital setting, decision support can be a valuable tool for improving patient outcomes. Data-driven inference of future outcomes is challenging in this dynamic setting, where long sequences such as laboratory tests and medications are updated frequently. This is due in part to heterogeneity of data types and mixed-sequence types contained in variable length sequences. In this work we design a probabilistic unsupervised model for multiple arbitrary-length sequences contained in hospitalization Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. The model uses a latent variable structure and captures complex relationships between medications, diagnoses, laboratory tests, neurological assessments, and medications. It can be trained on original data, without requiring any lossy transformations or time binning. Inference algorithms are derived that use partial data to infer properties of the complete sequences, including their length and presence of specific values. We train this model on data from subjects receiving medical care in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. The results are evaluated against held-out data for predicting the length of sequences and presence of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in hospitalization bed sequences. Our method outperforms a baseline approach, showing that in these experiments the trained model captures information in the sequences that is informative of their future values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗