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A program for automatically predicting supramolecular aggregates and its application to urea and porphin [A programme for the automated geometry prediction of supra-molecular aggregates and its application to the examples of urea and porphin]

Not only the molecular structure but also the presence or absence of aggregates determines many properties of organic materials. Theoretical investigation of such aggregates requires the prediction of a suitable set of diverse structures. Here, we present the open–source program EnergyScan for the unbiased prediction of geometrically diverse sets of small aggregates. Its bottom–up approach is complementary to existing ones by performing a detailed scan of an aggregate's potential energy surface, from which diverse local energy minima are selected. We crossvalidate this approach by predicting both literature–known and heretofore unreported geometries of the urea dimer. We also predict a diverse set of dimers of the less intensely studied case of porphin, which we investigate further using quantum chemistry. For several dimers, we find strong deviations from a reference absorption spectrum, which we explain using computed transition densities. Furthermore, this proof of principle clearly shows that EnergyScan successfully predicts aggregates exhibiting large structural and spectral diversity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advanced flight control system study

A fly by wire flight control system architecture designed for high reliability includes spare sensor and computer elements to permit safe dispatch with failed elements, thereby reducing unscheduled maintenance. A methodology capable of demonstrating that the architecture does achieve the predicted performance characteristics consists of a hierarchy of activities ranging from analytical calculations of system reliability and formal methods of software verification to iron bird testing followed by flight evaluation. Interfacing this architecture to the Lockheed S-3A aircraft for flight test is discussed. This testbed vehicle can be expanded to support flight experiments in advanced aerodynamics, electromechanical actuators, secondary power systems, flight management, new displays, and air traffic control concepts.

Hartmann, G. L.↗

Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson’s Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations

Background A unique archive of Big Data on Parkinson’s Disease is collected, managed and disseminated by the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The integration of such complex and heterogeneous Big Data from multiple sources offers unparalleled opportunities to study the early stages of prevalent neurodegenerative processes, track their progression and quickly identify the efficacies of alternative treatments. Many previous human and animal studies have examined the relationship of Parkinson’s disease (PD) risk to trauma, genetics, environment, co-morbidities, or life style. The defining characteristics of Big Data–large size, incongruency, incompleteness, complexity, multiplicity of scales, and heterogeneity of information-generating sources–all pose challenges to the classical techniques for data management, processing, visualization and interpretation. We propose, implement, test and validate complementary model-based and model-free approaches for PD classification and prediction. To explore PD risk using Big Data methodology, we jointly processed complex PPMI imaging, genetics, clinical and demographic data. Methods and Findings Collective representation of the multi-source data facilitates the aggregation and harmonization of complex data elements. This enables joint modeling of the complete data, leading to the development of Big Data analytics, predictive synthesis, and statistical validation. Using heterogeneous PPMI data, we developed a comprehensive protocol for end-to-end data characterization, manipulation, processing, cleaning, analysis and validation. Specifically, we (i) introduce methods for rebalancing imbalanced cohorts, (ii) utilize a wide spectrum of classification methods to generate consistent and powerful phenotypic predictions, and (iii) generate reproducible machine-learning based classification that enables the reporting of model parameters and diagnostic forecasting based on new data. We evaluated several complementary model-based predictive approaches, which failed to generate accurate and reliable diagnostic predictions. However, the results of several machine-learning based classification methods indicated significant power to predict Parkinson’s disease in the PPMI subjects (consistent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity exceeding 96%, confirmed using statistical n-fold cross-validation). Clinical (e.g., Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scores), demographic (e.g., age), genetics (e.g., rs34637584, chr12), and derived neuroimaging biomarker (e.g., cerebellum shape index) data all contributed to the predictive analytics and diagnostic forecasting. Conclusions Model-free Big Data machine learning-based classification methods (e.g., adaptive boosting, support vector machines) can outperform model-based techniques in terms of predictive precision and reliability (e.g., forecasting patient diagnosis). We observed that statistical rebalancing of cohort sizes yields better discrimination of group differences, specifically for predictive analytics based on heterogeneous and incomplete PPMI data. UPDRS scores play a critical role in predicting diagnosis, which is expected based on the clinical definition of Parkinson’s disease. Even without longitudinal UPDRS data, however, the accuracy of model-free machine learning based classification is over 80%. The methods, software and protocols developed here are openly shared and can be employed to study other neurodegenerative disorders (e.g., Alzheimer’s, Huntington’s, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), as well as for other predictive Big Data analytics applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Designer's unified cost model

A conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model has been initiated. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state of the art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a data base and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. The approach, goals, plans, and progress is presented for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

Freeman, William T.↗

Computing Bottleneck Structures at Scale for High-Precision Network Performance Analysis

The Theory of Bottleneck Structures is a recently-developed framework for studying the performance of data networks. It describes how local perturbations in one part of the network propagate and interact with others. This framework is a powerful analytical tool that allows network operators to make accurate predictions about network behavior and thereby optimize performance. Previous work implemented a software package for bottleneck structure analysis, but applied it only to toy examples. In this work, we introduce the first software package capable of scaling bottleneck structure analysis to production-size networks. Here, we benchmark our system using logs from ESnet, the Department of Energy's high-performance data network that connects research institutions in the U.S. Using the previously published tool as a baseline, we demonstrate that our system achieves vastly improved performance, constructing the bottleneck structure graphs in 0.21 s and calculating link derivatives in 0.09 s on average. We also study the asymptotic complexity of our core algorithms, demonstrating good scaling properties and strong agreement with theoretical bounds. These results indicate that our new software package can maintain its fast performance when applied to even larger networks. They also show that our software is efficient enough to analyze rapidly changing networks in real time. Overall, we demonstrate the feasibility of applying bottleneck structure analysis to solve practical problems in large, real-world data networks.

benchmark↗

Electrical Endurance to Extrinsic Aging of Polyphenylsulfone-Boron Nitride Composite Insulation for Aeronautical Power Systems

Various insulating materials which can be potentially used in energy application, especially in electrified transportation, are investigated in this paper. They are based on Polyphenylsulfone matrix filled by macro and nano hexagonal Boron-nitride particles. Our study focuses on electrical properties, particularly endurance to partial discharges. Upon developing an original testing procedure and adequate partial discharge inception modeling, it is shown that that the h-BN micron and nano fillers can significantly improve the dielectric strength and resistance of PPSU to extrinsic aging, even in comparison with the insulating material typically used for electrified transportation, i.e., corona resistant polyimide. Also, a new diagnostic marker, extracted from partial discharge monitoring and analytics obtained by an innovative software, i.e., the likelihood surface discharge identification, seems to be very promising for dynamic residual life prediction for an insulation system subjected to surface discharges.

Polyphenylsulfone (PPSU)↗

Designers' unified cost model

The Structures Technology Program Office (STPO) at NASA LaRC has initiated development of a conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state-of-the-art preliminary design tools and computer aided design programs is being evaluated. The goal of this task is to establish theoretical cost functions that relate geometric design features to summed material cost and labor content in terms of process mechanics and physics. The output of the designers' present analytical tools will be input for the designers' cost prediction model to provide the designer with a database and deterministic cost methodology that allows one to trade and synthesize designs with both cost and weight as objective functions for optimization. This paper presents the team members, approach, goals, plans, and progress to date for development of COSTADE (Cost Optimization Software for Transport Aircraft Design Evaluation).

Freeman, W.↗

An Analytical Assessment of NASA's N+1 Subsonic Fixed Wing Project Noise Goal

The Subsonic Fixed Wing Project of NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program has adopted a noise reduction goal for new, subsonic, single-aisle, civil aircraft expected to replace current 737 and A320 airplanes. These so-called 'N+1' aircraft - designated in NASA vernacular as such since they will follow the current, in-service, 'N' airplanes - are hoped to achieve certification noise goal levels of 32 cumulative EPNdB under current Stage 4 noise regulations. A notional, N+1, single-aisle, twinjet transport with ultrahigh bypass ratio turbofan engines is analyzed in this study using NASA software and methods. Several advanced noise-reduction technologies are analytically applied to the propulsion system and airframe. Certification noise levels are predicted and compared with the NASA goal.

Berton, Jeffrey J.↗

Micromechanics Analysis Code (MAC) User Guide: Version 1.0

The ability to accurately predict the thermomechanical deformation response of advanced composite materials continues to play an important role in the development of these strategic materials. Analytical models that predict the effective behavior of composites are used not only by engineers performing structural analysis of large-scale composite components but also by material scientists in developing new material systems. For an analytical model to fulfill these two distinct functions it must be based on a micromechanics approach which utilizes physically based deformation and life constitutive models and allows one to generate the average (macro) response of a composite material given the properties of the individual constituents and their geometric arrangement. Here the user guide for the recently developed, computationally efficient and comprehensive micromechanics analysis code, MAC, who's predictive capability rests entirely upon the fully analytical generalized method of cells, GMC, micromechanics model is described. MAC is a versatile form of research software that 'drives' the double or triple ply periodic micromechanics constitutive models based upon GMC. MAC enhances the basic capabilities of GMC by providing a modular framework wherein (1) various thermal, mechanical (stress or strain control), and thermomechanical load histories can be imposed; (2) different integration algorithms may be selected; (3) a variety of constituent constitutive models may be utilized and/or implemented; and (4) a variety of fiber architectures may be easily accessed through their corresponding representative volume elements.

Wilt, T. E.↗

Micromechanics Analysis Code (MAC). User Guide: Version 2.0

The ability to accurately predict the thermomechanical deformation response of advanced composite materials continues to play an important role in the development of these strategic materials. Analytical models that predict the effective behavior of composites are used not only by engineers performing structural analysis of large-scale composite components but also by material scientists in developing new material systems. For an analytical model to fulfill these two distinct functions it must be based on a micromechanics approach which utilizes physically based deformation and life constitutive models and allows one to generate the average (macro) response of a composite material given the properties of the individual constituents and their geometric arrangement. Here the user guide for the recently developed, computationally efficient and comprehensive micromechanics analysis code's (MAC) who's predictive capability rests entirely upon the fully analytical generalized method of cells (GMC), micromechanics model is described. MAC is a versatile form of research software that 'drives' the double or triply periodic micromechanics constitutive models based upon GMC. MAC enhances the basic capabilities of GMC by providing a modular framework wherein (1) various thermal, mechanical (stress or strain control) and thermomechanical load histories can be imposed, (2) different integration algorithms may be selected, (3) a variety of constituent constitutive models may be utilized and/or implemented, and (4) a variety of fiber and laminate architectures may be easily accessed through their corresponding representative volume elements.

Wilt, T. E.↗

Accelerating Random Forest Classification on GPU and FPGA

Random Forests (RFs) are a commonly used machine learning method for classification and regression tasks spanning a variety of application domains, including bioinformatics, business analytics, and software optimization. While prior work has focused primarily on improving performance of the training of RFs, many applications, such as malware identification, cancer prediction, and banking fraud detection, require fast RF classification. In this work, we accelerate RF classification on GPU and FPGA. In order to provide efficient support for large datasets, we propose a hierarchical memory layout suitable to the GPU/FPGA memory hierarchy. We design three RF classification code variants based on that layout, and we investigate GPU- and FPGA-specific considerations for these kernels. Our experimental evaluation, performed on an Nvidia Xp GPU and on a Xilinx Alveo U250 FPGA accelerator card using publicly available datasets on the scale of millions of samples and tens of features, covers various aspects. First, we evaluate the performance benefits of our hierarchical data structure over the standard compressed sparse row (CSR) format. Second, we compare our GPU implementation with cuML, a machine learning library targeting Nvidia GPUs. Third, we explore the performance/accuracy tradeoff resulting from the use of different tree depths in the RF. Finally, we perform a comparative performance analysis of our GPU and FPGA implementations. Our evaluation shows that for high accuracy targets, our GPU implementation yields 5-9x speedup over CSR, and up to a 2x speedup over cuML.

FPGA, Xilinx FPGA, GPU, Random Forest classificati↗

Micromechanics Analysis Code With Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC): User Guide

The ability to accurately predict the thermomechanical deformation response of advanced composite materials continues to play an important role in the development of these strategic materials. Analytical models that predict the effective behavior of composites are used not only by engineers performing structural analysis of large-scale composite components but also by material scientists in developing new material systems. For an analytical model to fulfill these two distinct functions it must be based on a micromechanics approach which utilizes physically based deformation and life constitutive models and allows one to generate the average (macro) response of a composite material given the properties of the individual constituents and their geometric arrangement. Here the user guide for the recently developed, computationally efficient and comprehensive micromechanics analysis code, MAC, who's predictive capability rests entirely upon the fully analytical generalized method of cells, GMC, micromechanics model is described. MAC/ GMC is a versatile form of research software that "drives" the double or triply periodic micromechanics constitutive models based upon GMC. MAC/GMC enhances the basic capabilities of GMC by providing a modular framework wherein 1) various thermal, mechanical (stress or strain control) and thermomechanical load histories can be imposed, 2) different integration algorithms may be selected, 3) a variety of material constitutive models (both deformation and life) may be utilized and/or implemented, and 4) a variety of fiber architectures (both unidirectional, laminate and woven) may be easily accessed through their corresponding representative volume elements contained within the supplied library of RVEs or input directly by the user, and 5) graphical post processing of the macro and/or micro field quantities is made available.

Arnold, S. M.↗

Discrete Spring Model for Predicting Delamination Growth in Z-Fiber Reinforced DCB Specimens

Beam theory analysis was applied to predict delamination growth in DCB specimens reinforced in the thickness direction with pultruded pins, known as Z-fibers. The specimen arms were modeled as cantilever beams supported by discrete springs, which were included to represent the pins. A bi-linear, irreversible damage law was used to represent Z-fiber damage, the parameters of which were obtained from previous experiments. Closed-form solutions were developed for specimen compliance and displacements corresponding to Z-fiber row locations. A solution strategy was formulated to predict delamination growth, in which the parent laminate mode I fracture toughness was used as the criterion for delamination growth. The solution procedure was coded into FORTRAN 90, giving a dedicated software tool for performing the delamination prediction. Comparison of analysis results with previous analysis and experiment showed good agreement, yielding an initial verification for the analytical procedure.

Ratcliffe, James G.↗

Discrete Spring Model for Predicting Delamination Growth in Z-Fiber Reinforced DCB Specimens

Beam theory analysis was applied to predict delamination growth in Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) specimens reinforced in the thickness direction with pultruded pins, known as Z-fibers. The specimen arms were modeled as cantilever beams supported by discrete springs, which were included to represent the pins. A bi-linear, irreversible damage law was used to represent Z-fiber damage, the parameters of which were obtained from previous experiments. Closed-form solutions were developed for specimen compliance and displacements corresponding to Z-fiber row locations. A solution strategy was formulated to predict delamination growth, in which the parent laminate mode I critical strain energy release rate was used as the criterion for delamination growth. The solution procedure was coded into FORTRAN 90, giving a dedicated software tool for performing the delamination prediction. Comparison of analysis results with previous analysis and experiment showed good agreement, yielding an initial verification for the analytical procedure.

Ratcliffe, James G.↗

Automotive Design

Analytical Design Service Corporation, Ann Arbor, MI, used NASTRAN (a NASA Structural Analysis program that analyzes a design and predicts how parts will perform) in tests of transmissions, engine cooling systems, internal engine parts, and body components. They also use it to design future automobiles. Analytical software can save millions by allowing computer simulated analysis of performance even before prototypes are built.

Source record↗

Open-air Demolition: Validation of EPA Approved Alternative Method for Emission Estimation - 19397

Emissions from open-air demolition of US Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are regulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under 40 CFR 61 subpart H. This regulation requires that facilities estimate emissions using an EPA approved method from activities such as open-air demolition prior to commencing the activity. Should those emissions exceed certain thresholds, the facility may be required to obtain an Approval to Construct or Modify the facility and/or installed monitoring methods meeting methods acceptable to EPA. There are no EPA approved methods that are specific to open-air demolition methods. For this project the DOE and CH2M Hill BWXT elected to prepare an alternative method specific to open-air demolition. EPA conditionally approved the method but required validation of the method during the demolition of the Vitrification Facility at the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) before use for open-air demolition at other WVDP structures. The validation method included detailed source characterization, close-in ambient samplers, and a comparison of measured results to predicted emissions using AERMOD (American Meteorological Society (AMS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model). The methods evaluated include hydraulic hammers, mechanical shears, load out of waste and handling of the debris piles. The validation method involved the collection and analysis of ambient air samples from air samplers located at strategic locations within the projected plume path of the demolition activities. The analytical results from the air samplers were then compared to ambient air concentrations predicted at the sampler locations with the EPA model AERMOD. The input to the AERMOD software is a source term developed weekly using the alternative method and material at risk disturbed during each week. To account for the building wake effects of the surrounding structures, virtual point sources were developed in the AERMOD model and placed at the locations of the demolition, debris piles, debris handling and load out areas. It was found that the factors used for hydraulic hammering were extremely conservative and that emissions from the debris pile were not only the primary emission source, but that the moisture content of the debris pile and the wind speed were critical factors that must be considered in future open-air demolition projects. Based on the results of the validation process, adjustments were made to the alternative method. The final validated alternative method provides an approach for estimating airborne emissions from open-air demolition methods and techniques. The method will be used in lieu of 40 CFR 61 Appendix D to estimate emissions from future open-air demolition projects at the WVDP. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Probability approach for strength calculations

The use of probabilistic structural analysis methods (PSAM) to predict structural reliability is the subject of an on-going NASA research program. The elements of the new technology developed to date is reported. Applications of the developed software to structural problems are demonstrated for simple validation problems and for large scale application problems. On-going research to support component and system reliability predictions suitable for analytical certification of aerospace structures is briefly reviewed.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Structural Anomalies Detected in Ceramic Matrix Composites Using Combined Nondestructive Evaluation and Finite Element Analysis (NDE and FEA)

Most reverse engineering approaches involve imaging or digitizing an object and then creating a computerized reconstruction that can be integrated, in three dimensions, into a particular design environment. The rapid prototyping technique builds high-quality physical prototypes directly from computer-aided design files. This fundamental technique for interpreting and interacting with large data sets is being used here via Velocity2 (an integrated image-processing software, ref. 1) using computed tomography (CT) data to produce a prototype three-dimensional test specimen model for analyses. A study at the NASA Glenn Research Center proposes to use these capabilities to conduct a combined nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and finite element analysis (FEA) to screen pretest and posttest structural anomalies in structural components. A tensile specimen made of silicon nitrite (Si3N4) ceramic matrix composite was considered to evaluate structural durability and deformity. Ceramic matrix composites are being sought as candidate materials to replace nickel-base superalloys for turbine engine applications. They have the unique characteristics of being able to withstand higher operating temperatures and harsh combustion environments. In addition, their low densities relative to metals help reduce component mass (ref. 2). Detailed three-dimensional volume rendering of the tensile test specimen was successfully carried out with Velocity2 (ref. 1) using two-dimensional images that were generated via computed tomography. Subsequent, three-dimensional finite element analyses were performed, and the results obtained were compared with those predicted by NDE-based calculations and experimental tests. It was shown that Velocity2 software can be used to render a three-dimensional object from a series of CT scan images with a minimum level of complexity. The analytical results (ref. 3) show that the high-stress regions correlated well with the damage sites identified by the CT scans and the experimental data. Furthermore, modeling of the voids collected via NDE offered an analytical advantage that resulted in more accurate assessments of the material s structural strength. The top figure shows a CT scan image of the specimen test section illustrating various hidden structural entities in the material and an optical image of the test specimen considered in this study. The bottom figure represents the stress response predicted from the finite element analyses (ref .3 ) for a selected CT slice where it clearly illustrates the correspondence of the high stress risers due to voids in the material with those predicted by the NDE. This study is continuing, and efforts are concentrated on improving the modeling capabilities to imitate the structural anomalies as detected.

Abdul-Aziz, Ali↗