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DOE OSTI2024

Optimization-Based Model Reduction Scheme for Renewable Energy Power Plants Using Standardized Testing Scenarios

This paper presents an optimization-based model reduction scheme for renewable energy (RE) power plants consisting of inverter-based resources (IBRs) operating in grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM) modes. More importantly, the datasets feeding the optimization-based model reduction scheme are generated and re-used through the standardized grid-interactive testing scenarios. Particularly, the proposed scheme makes use of the power plant point of common coupling (PCC) measurements of various quantities specified by standardized tests (e.g., voltage and frequency ride through) as per IEEE 2800, to estimate the parameters of the reduced-order model such that its dynamic performance aligns with the original detailed power plant model. The proposed model reduction approach does not require the parameters of individual IBRs and using standardized test data as input to the formulated optimization problem simplifies the reduced-order modelling scheme. Extensive case studies following standardized test scenarios verified the remarkable accuracy of the proposed approach.

Yallamilli, Ram S. [Purdue University]↗

DOE OSTI2026

EVs@Scale: NextGen Profiles EVSE Characterization 2025

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium, the Next-Generation Profiles (NextGen Profiles [NGP]) project presents analysis and results from the characterization of high-power conductive and wireless charging infrastructure. High Power Charging equipment is capable of recharging electric vehicle traction batteries at power levels of 200KW and above. Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE) characterization involves testing over a wide range of DC charging currents and voltages during nominal and off-nominal conditions. This testing allows for a better understanding of the impact that high-power charging will have on the electric grid. A common set of standard test plans, procedures, and data requirements were applied to the characterization in this document with minor updates and improvements. This report covers all conductive characterization activities performed between October 2024 and September 2025 on the Delta Electronics 350KW Electric Vehicle Charging System, consisting of power cabinet model EIDN-U350KTA01 and dispenser model EIDD-U350SSUUAEG-350.Key Findings include: Output regulation, Efficiency and power factor, Load management, Grid Resilience, Smart Charge Management (SCM) performance, Thermal control system performance, Multi-port simultaneous charging performance, and Selected performance comparisons with other EVSEs characterized in the NextGen Profiles project. Hot and cold temperature testing was not conducted on the Delta 350KW due to laboratory limitations. Future research could include continued testing the Delta hardware under off-nominal temperature conditions including multi-port/multi-session simultaneous charge testing, in addition to collecting data on other high-power conductive chargers to augment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the formation of a low-pressure pedestal in the presence of a strong internal transport barrier in DIII-D high β p plasmas

As a promising scenario for fusion reactors, the high poloidal-beta (β P ) scenario is characterized by a strong large radius internal transport barrier (ITB), which significantly enhances the overall confinement quality and the bootstrap current fraction for fully non-inductive operation. It is frequently observed that in the presence of a strong ITB, the pedestal height is lower and is accompanied by small edge localized modes (ELMs), which further improves the compatibility of a high performance core with an edge solution. A mechanism for the formation of the low pedestal is proposed in this paper. It is found that the strong ITB creates an off-axis bootstrap current to clamp the local safety factor q, and thus the magnetic shear in the outer core/pedestal region is increased. Gyrokinetic simulations with the CGYRO code show that the higher magnetic shear brings the experimental profiles into the range where the growth rate of drift-wave instabilities and thus transport is higher, and therefore a lower pedestal gradient is expected. Here, the combination of low pedestal and high magnetic shear further enhances the turbulent transport across the whole pedestal, consistent with power balance analysis. Such a positive feedback mechanism ultimately results in a lower pressure pedestal as observed in experiments. Under such a low pedestal, linear simulations with BOUT++ predict the growth rates of peeling–ballooning modes to be lower across the whole toroidal mode number spectra, and the nonlinear BOUT++ simulation exhibits lower saturated fluctuation intensity as well, consistent with the experimentally observed lower ELM size.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Turbulence, Waves, and Taylor’s Hypothesis for Heliosheath Observations

Magnetic field fluctuations measured in the heliosheath by the Voyager spacecraft are often characterized as compressible, as indicated by a strong fluctuating component parallel to the mean magnetic field. However, the interpretation of the turbulence data faces the caveat that the standard Taylor’s hypothesis is invalid because the solar wind flow velocity in the heliosheath becomes subsonic and slower than the fast magnetosonic speed, given the contributions from hot pickup ions (PUIs) in the heliosheath. We attempt to overcome this caveat by introducing a 4D frequency-wavenumber spectral modeling of turbulence, which is essentially a decomposition of different wave modes following their respective dispersion relations. Isotropic Alfvén and fast mode turbulence are considered to represent the heliosheath fluctuations. We also include two dispersive fast wave modes derived from a three-fluid theory. We find that (1) magnetic fluctuations in the inner heliosheath are less compressible than previously thought, an isotropic turbulence spectral model with about 25% in compressible fluctuation power is consistent with the observed magnetic compressibility in the heliosheath; (2) the hot PUI component and the relatively cold solar wind ions induce two dispersive fast magnetosonic wave branches in the perpendicular propagation limit, PUI fast wave may account for the spectral bump near the proton gyrofrequency in the observable spectrum; (3) it is possible that the turbulence wavenumber spectrum is not Kolmogorov-like although the observed frequency spectrum has a −5/3 power-law index, depending on the partitioning of power among the various wave modes, and this partitioning may change with wavenumber.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of the Polarization Beam Response of SPT-3G Using Point Sources

Precise measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization require rigorous control of instrumental systematics. For the South Pole Telescope's third-generation camera (SPT-3G), which observes in three bands centered near 95, 150, and 220 GHz, accurate beam characterization is critical for interpreting the polarized mm-wave sky. We present direct measurements of SPT-3G's polarized beam response from observations of 100 bright extragalactic point sources. Previous SPT-3G power spectrum analyses introduced a phenomenological parameter, $β_{\rm pol}$, to describe the polarization preserved in beam sidelobes, and found evidence for significant depolarization from the requirement of inter-frequency polarization power spectrum consistency. Our direct measurements yield $β_{\rm pol}=0.89\pm0.10$ at 95 GHz, $1.08\pm0.10$ at 150 GHz, and $0.90\pm0.22$ at 220 GHz, indicating minimal sidelobe depolarization. We validate these results with systematic tests of posterior sampling versus bootstrap resampling, real-space versus Fourier-space analysis, temperature-to-polarization leakage handling, covariance determination, and source selection. Compared to values inferred from previous cosmological analyses, our results differ by an effective $1.3σ$. This apparent discrepancy is model dependent, because the point source analysis derives much of its $β_{\rm pol}$ constraining power from higher multipoles than the power spectrum analysis. These measurements therefore admit three explanations for the frequency-dependent residuals observed in the power spectrum analysis: a statistical fluctuation, the need for more sophisticated polarized beam models, or systematics other than beam depolarization.

de Haan, T. [KEK, Tsukuba]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced shear stabilization of turbulence in NSTX

In studying a particular non-stationary NSTX L-mode plasma, we observed unexpectedly high levels of flux—first with quasilinear (TGLF) modeling and subsequently with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. Upon more detailed analysis, a novel confinement regime was discovered in which a modest increase in E x B shear (beyond baseline experimental estimates) rapidly reduced turbulent transport to levels consistent with power balance. This modest increase is plausible given the errors inherent to the estimation of shearing rates, and the added complexity of the non-stationary (time-dependent) power balance. Remarkably, an additional small increase in shear yields the familiar ion-neoclassical transport level with what appears to be the onset of high-k electron transport only. Although analyses using the TGLF-SAT2 model successfully capture numerous parametric dependencies of this plasma, TGLF does not reproduce the rapid E x B stabilization seen in CGYRO. We believe the results presented should help to better characterize the nonlinear physics of spherical tokamak confinement regimes, provide useful ST datasets for reduced model development, and motivate more accurate experimental diagnosis of E x B shearing rates.

Atomic and molecular collisions↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Precipitation-Induced Radon Progeny Deposition Events Using a City-Scale Sensor Network

Networks of radiation detectors provide a platform for real-time radioactive source detection and identification in urban environments. Detection algorithms in these systems must adapt to naturally-occurring changes in background, which requires well-characterized relationships between precipitation events and their corresponding radiological signature. Here, we present a quantitative and qualitative description of rain-induced radon progeny deposition events occurring in Chicago from September 2023 to February 2024. We measure ambient gamma radiation levels, precipitation rate, temperature, pressure, and relative humidity in a network of sensor nodes. For each identified precipitation period, we decompose spectra into static- and radon-associated components as defined by a non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm. We find a consistent power-law relationship between a precipitation-dependent peak of the radon progeny proxy (RPP) and the peak strength of the radon-associated NMF component for most precipitation events. We conduct a case study of a rainfall period with abnormally high levels of implied radon progeny concentration and describe its temporal and spatial evolution. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is due to the air mass path that intersects a uranium-rich region of Wyoming. Finally, we cluster precipitation events into three distinct categories. One category roughly corresponds to events with deep low-pressure systems and high relative radon concentration, while another is characteristic of light stratiform rain with slightly higher temperatures and intermediate relative radon concentration. The third category appears to contain weak-gradient or lake breeze convection showers with intermittent precipitation and low relative radon concentration. These findings suggest that radiological anomaly detection could be improved by training unique background models corresponding to each category of meteorological event.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems

SAND2025-12025O The Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems (ProGRESS) software tool is an open-source tool for assessing the resource adequacy of the evolving electric power grid integrated with energy storage systems (ESS). This tool uses a simulation engine to create diverse scenarios that test the limits of the modern power grid consisting of a high-volume ESS and variable energy resources (VER). Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Nguyen, Tu↗

DOE OSTI2025

Boiling Water Capsule Irradiation Test Device Design Study Report

RELAP5 calculations were conducted to support an experimental design, referred to as water capsule, which can facilitate fuel performance testing within ATR. The main objective is to provide useful insights into the experimental design and operating strategies that can mimic LWR operating conditions within the spatial constraints of the ATR position under consideration. This report summarizes the RELAP5 analysis results based on the most recent water capsule design derived through various tests. To discuss a design under conservative conditions, fuel power is consistently assumed to be 400 W/m in all analyses.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal well testing pressure prediction by using a hybrid transformer model system: FORGE well use case

Geothermal has huge potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of sustainable energy economy, given its capability to provide consistent baseload power to the electric grid. Injection tests are crucial in geothermal energy system as they naturally help to evaluate reservoir properties, understand fluid flow and even enhance reservoir performance. In this research, we developed a hybrid model system that integrates machine learning (ML) regression, a physics-based mathematical model, and transformer deep learning. Trained and validated using FORGE injection test dataset, this system can forecast the pressure variations both upward and downward over time. The pressure prediction achieved prediction accuracy within 3-6% variance of true pressure values. The system can significantly save time and reduce costs by testing only a few cycles and then using model predictions for further analysis, instead of conducting additional real injection cycle tests. The developed model system also holds promise for designing injection test processes and maintaining well production in geothermal energy. Presented at the IMAGE ‘25 Conference led by Shell.

FORGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Assessment of Data Center Load Demand Powered by Small Modular Reactors and Distributed Energy Resources

The rapid increase in data center energy demand, driven by AI and large-scale data processing, poses significant challenges to global energy infrastructure. Data centers require substantial and reliable energy for continuous operations and high-performance computing. Current electrical grids face issues such as transmission bottlenecks and aging infrastructure, making it difficult to meet these demands. Integrating inverter-based-resources (IBRs) like solar and wind presents both opportunities and challenges due to their intermittent nature. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) offer a promising solution with their enhanced safety, modularity, reliability, and scalability, providing consistent base load power ideal for data center operations. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of powering data center load demand using a combination of SMRs and IBRs with grid-connected and islanded mode. This study utilized Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) HPC data center hourly load profiles and Xendee microgrid optimization platform to conduct the analysis. In this configuration, SMRs serves as the primary base load power source, consistently providing a steady supply of electricity necessary to meet the minimum load demand of the data center with support from the IBRs. Key performance indicators such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Net Present Value (NPV) has been calculated to assess the economic feasibility. The findings from this research will underscore the strategic benefits of integrating SMR plant with DERs – particularly for critical infrastructure load such as data centers.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insights into water extraction and aggregation mechanisms of malonamide-alkane mixtures

Structure at the nanoscale in the organic phase of liquid–liquid extraction systems is often tied to separation performance. However, the weak interactions that drive extractant assembly lead to poorly defined structures that are challenging to identify. Here, in this work, we investigate the mechanism of water extraction for a malonamide extractant commonly applied to f-element separations. We measure extractant concentration fluctuations in the organic phase with small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) before and after contact with water at fine increments of extractant concentration, finding no qualitative changes upon water uptake that might suggest significant nanoscopic reorganization of the solution. The critical composition for maximum fluctuation intensity is consistent with small water–extractant adducts. The extractant concentration dependence of water extraction is consistent with a power law close to unity in the low concentration regime, suggesting the formation of 1 : 1 water–extractant adducts as the primary extraction mechanism at low concentration. At higher extractant concentrations, the power law slope increases slightly, which we find is consistent with activity effects modeled using Flory–Huggins theory without introduction of additional extractant–water species. Molecular dynamics simulations are consistent with these findings. The decrease in interfacial tension with increasing extractant concentration shows a narrow plateau region, but it is not correlated with any change in fluctuation or water extraction trends, further suggesting no supramolecular organization such as reverse micellization. This study suggests that water extraction in this system is particularly simple: it relies on a single mechanism at all extractant concentrations, and only slightly enhances the concentration fluctuations characteristic of the dry binary extractant/diluent mixture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Polarized Dust Emission Using Data from the First Flight of SPIDER

Using data from the first flight of Spider and from the Planck High Frequency Instrument, we probe the properties of polarized emission from interstellar dust in the Spider observing region. Component-separation algorithms operating in both the spatial and harmonic domains are applied to probe their consistency and to quantify modeling errors associated with their assumptions. Analyses of diffuse Galactic dust emission spanning the full Spider region demonstrate (i) a spectral energy distribution that is broadly consistent with a modified-blackbody (MBB) model with a spectral index of β d = 1.45 ± 0.05 (1.47 ± 0.06) for E (B)-mode polarization, slightly lower than that reported by Planck for the full sky; (ii) an angular power spectrum broadly consistent with a power law; and (iii) no significant detection of line-of-sight polarization decorrelation. Tests of several modeling uncertainties find only a modest impact (~10% in σ r ) on Spider's sensitivity to the cosmological tensor-to-scalar ratio. The size of the Spider region further allows for a statistically meaningful analysis of the variation in foreground properties within it. Assuming a fixed dust temperature T d = 19.6 K, an analysis of two independent subregions of that field results in inferred values of β d = 1.52 ± 0.06 and β d = 1.09 ± 0.09, which are inconsistent at the 3.9σ level. Furthermore, a joint analysis of Spider and Planck 217 and 353 GHz data within one subregion is inconsistent with a simple MBB at more than 3σ, assuming a common morphology of polarized dust emission over the full range of frequencies. This evidence of variation may inform the component-separation approaches of future cosmic microwave background polarization experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrodynamic characterization of the coastal pioneer array ocean observing system

Ocean observation buoys require relatively small amounts of power, yet traditionally necessitate costly resupply trips for battery replacement. With the offshore location of the buoys and small power requirements, wave energy may be an effective solution for providing consistent and reliable power to support the buoy instrumentation. The US National Science Foundation Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) includes arrays of point absorber-like buoy systems used for ocean observation that have been deployed at multiple locations including the Southern Mid-Atlantic Bight. A study is currently underway to design a pitch resonator wave energy converter to supplement existing renewable energy generation for powering observation instrumentation. This paper details field measurements from surface moorings of the OOI Coastal Pioneer Array, which informs the subsequent development of a numerical model for the moored observation system. The model is developed in Wave Energy Converter Simulator (WEC-Sim), which leverages the Simscape multibody solver within the MATLAB/Simulink framework and linear potential flow theory to simulate the hydrodynamic interactions and multibody dynamics in 6 degrees of freedom. Multiple tuning variables are considered to produce a model for the system that matches well with empirical data (about 8% error). In conclusion, the WEC-Sim model will serve as a platform for integrating the pitch resonator wave energy converter concept and deployment preparation (detailed design including power take-off and control systems, response evaluation, etc.).

hydrodynamic modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

KIPM Detector Characterization in QUIET

Kinetic Inductance Phonon‑Mediated (KIPM) detectors are superconducting microwave resonators on silicon that sense bursts of energy through tiny shifts in their resonance. In this work, we installed new devices in the QUIET facility's cryogenic test setup and used a network analyzer to drive them across a range of power levels. At each setting, we measured the transmitted signal and fit it to a simple notch‑filter model, allowing us to extract key performance metrics. And despite the increased noise at low power, our model consistently captured the resonance behavior. We observed that the resonant frequency stayed stable across most powers, the device s internal quality factor improved with stronger signals, and its coupling strength peaked mid‑range before leveling off. Overall, these findings confirm the detector s performance, laying groundwork for future work on energy calibration with pulsed optical sources.

Savitala, Akash [Washington U., Seattle; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

KIPM Detector Characterization in QUIET

Kinetic Inductance Phonon‑Mediated (KIPM) detectors are superconducting microwave resonators that sense energy depositions in the substrate through a transient shift in their resonant frequency. In this work, I installed new devices in the QUIET cryogenic facility and used a network analyzer to drive them across a range of power levels. At each setting, I measured the transmitted signal and fit it to a simple notch‑filter model, allowing us to extract key performance metrics. Despite the increased noise at low power, the model consistently captured the resonance behavior. I first measured the resonance parameters as a function of RF drive power, then repeated the measurement across a range of temperatures to test whether the device behaved like an MKID. While the notch-filter fits captured the resonance reliably, the observed temperature dependence did not match the expected MKID signature — indicating that these first in-house fabricated chips are not yet functioning as true MKIDs. Overall, this reframes our work as a study of resonance parameter extraction and identification, pointing towards future iterations of device design and fabrication to get the true MKID response.

Savitala, Akash [U. Washington, Seattle (main); Fe↗