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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

On the Feynman-alpha method for reflected fissile assemblies

The Feynman-alpha method is a neutron noise technique that is used to estimate the prompt neutron period of fissile assemblies. The method and quantity are of widespread interest including in applications such as nuclear criticality safety, safeguards and nonproliferation, and stockpile stewardship; the prompt neutron period may also be used to infer the k eff multiplication factor. The Feynman-alpha method is predicated on time-correlated neutron detections that deviate from a Poisson random variable due to multiplication. Traditionally, such measurements are diagnosed with one-region point kinetics, but two-region models are required when the fissile assembly is reflected. This paper presents a derivation of the two-region point kinetics Feynman-alpha equations based on a double integration of the Rossi-alpha equations, develops novel propagation of measurement uncertainty, and validates the theory. Validation is achieved with organic scintillator measurements of weapons-grade plutonium reflected by various amounts of copper to achieve k eff values of 0.83–0.94 and prompt periods of 5–75 ns. The results demonstrate that Feynman-alpha measurements should use the two-region model instead of the one-region model. The simplified one-region model deviates from the validated two-region models by as much as 10% in the estimate of the prompt neutron period, and the two-region model reduces to the one-region model for small amounts of reflector. The Feynman-alpha estimates of the prompt neutron period are compared to those of the Rossi-alpha approach. The comparative results demonstrate that the Feynman-alpha method is more precise than the Rossi-alpha method and more accurate for k eff < 0.92, whereas the Rossi-alpha method is generally more accurate for higher multiplications. Here, the uncertainty propagation developed in this work should be used for all Feynman-alpha measurements and will therein improve fitting accuracy and appropriate precision estimates.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pion gravitational form factors in the QCD instanton vacuum. I

The pion form factors of the QCD energy-momentum tensor (EMT) are studied in the instanton liquid model (ILM) of the QCD vacuum. In this approach, the breaking of conformal symmetry is encoded in the form of stronger-than-Poisson fluctuations in the number of instantons. For the trace of the EMT, it is shown that the gluonic trace anomaly term contributes half the pion mass, with the other half coming from the quark-mass-dependent σ term. The Q 2 dependence of the form factors is governed by glueball and scalar meson exchanges. For the EMT, the spin-0 (trace) and spin-2 (traceless rank-2 tensor) form factors are computed at next-to-leading order in the instanton density using effective quark operators. Relations between the gluon and quark contributions to the EMT form factors are derived. The form factors are also expressed in terms of the pion light-front wave functions in the ILM. The results at the low resolution scale of the inverse instanton size are evolved to higher scales using the renormalization group equation. The ILM results compare well with those of recent lattice QCD calculations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parameterized anomalous transport model for current-carrying collisionless plasmas in pulsed power inertial confinement fusion

Current delivery in pulsed power inertial confinement fusion is influenced by collisionless current-carrying microturbulent plasmas, which are sourced from electrode surfaces. In this setting, the lower hybrid drift instability—triggered by plasma acceleration—is a leading candidate driver of difficult-to-predict momentum and energy transport. To characterize the nonlinear state of the microturbulent plasma, a parameterized anomalous transport model is developed for the instability, with analytic formulas for anomalous collision frequency, resistivity, and species heating rates. The formulas are expressed in terms of linear-theory variables and four dimensionless parameters that characterize the macroscopic plasma state. The model is built on linear theory analysis, power law analysis, and quasilinear theory analysis, and is validated using a series of nonlinear continuum kinetic Vlasov–Poisson simulations. The theoretical and computational investigation demonstrates that the anomalous collision frequency associated with the instability can be reliably approximated, within about a factor of five or better, by the unscaled linear theory growth rate of the fastest-growing wavenumber mode. This finding enables efficient calculation of anomalous resistivity and species heating rates over a wide range of plasma conditions, resulting in improved predictive capabilities.

Complex functions↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the local dark matter density in a non-axisymmetric wobbling disc

The density of dark matter near the Sun, ρDM, ⊙, is important for experiments hunting for dark matter particles in the laboratory, and for constraining the local shape of the Milky Way’s dark matter halo. Estimates to date have typically assumed that the Milky Way’s stellar disc is axisymmetric and in a steady-state. Yet the Milky Way disc is neither, exhibiting prominent spiral arms and a bar, and vertical and radial oscillations. Here, we assess the impact of these assumptions on determinations of ρDM, ⊙ by applying a free-form, steady-state, Jeans method to two different N-body simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. In one, the galaxy has experienced an ancient major merger, similar to the hypothesized Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus; in the other, the galaxy is perturbed more recently by the repeated passage and slow merger of a Sagittarius-like dwarf galaxy. We assess the impact of each of the terms in the Jeans–Poisson equations on our ability to correctly extract ρDM, ⊙ from the simulated data. We find that common approximations employed in the literature – axisymmetry and a locally flat rotation curve – can lead to significant systematic errors of up to a factor ~1.5 in the recovered surface mass density ~2 kpc above the disc plane, implying a fractional error on ρDM, ⊙ of the order of unity. However, once we add in the tilt term and the rotation curve term in our models, we obtain an unbiased estimate of ρDM, ⊙, consistent with the true value within our 95 percent confidence intervals for realistic 20 percent uncertainties on the baryonic surface density of the disc. Other terms – the axial tilt, 2nd Poisson and time-dependent terms – contribute less than 10 percent to ρDM, ⊙ (given current data) and can be safely neglected for now. In the future, as more data become available, these terms will need to be included in the analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A soft departure from jamming: the compaction of deformable granular matter under high pressures

Here, the high-pressure compaction of three-dimensional granular packings is simulated using a bonded particle model (BPM) to capture linear elastic deformation. In the model, grains are represented by a collection of point particles connected by bonds. A simple multibody interaction is introduced to control Poisson's ratio and the arrangement of particles on the surface of a grain is varied to model both high- and low-frictional grains. At low pressures, the growth in packing fraction and coordination number follows the expected behavior near jamming and exhibit friction dependence. As the pressure increases, deviations from the low-pressure power-law scaling emerge after the packing fraction grows by approximately 0.1 and results from simulations with different friction coefficients converge. These results are compared to predictions from traditional discrete element method simulations which, depending on the definition of packing fraction and coordination number, may only differ by a factor of two. As grains deform under compaction, the average volumetric strain and asphericity, a measure of the change in the shape of grains, are found to grow as power laws and depend heavily on the Poisson's ratio of the constituent solid. Larger Poisson's ratios are associated with less volumetric strain and more asphericity and the apparent power-law exponent of the asphericity may vary. The elastic properties of the packed grains are also calculated as a function of packing fraction. In particular, we find the Poisson's ratio near jamming is 1/2 but decreases to around 1/4 before rising again as systems densify.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuzzy spheres in stringy matrix models: quantifying chaos in a mixed phase space

We consider a truncation of the BMN matrix model to a configuration of two fuzzy spheres, described by two coupled non-linear oscillators dependent on the mass parameter μ. The classical phase diagram of the system generically (μ ≠ 0) contains three equilibrium points: two centers and a center-saddle; as μ → 0 the system exhibits a pitchfork bifurcation. We demonstrate that the system is exactly integrable in quadratures for μ = 0, while for very large values of μ, it approaches another integrable point characterized by two harmonic oscillators. The classical phase space is mixed, containing both integrable islands and chaotic regions, as evidenced by the classical Lyapunov spectrum. At the quantum level, we explore indicators of early and late time chaos. The eigenvalue spacing is best described by a Brody distribution, which interpolates between Poisson and Wigner distributions; it dovetails, at the quantum level, the classical results and reemphasizes the notion that the quantum system is mixed. We also study the spectral form factor and the quantum Lyapunov exponent, as defined by out-of-time-ordered correlators. These two indicators of quantum chaos exhibit weak correlations with the Brody distribution. We speculate that the behavior of the system as μ → 0 dominates the spectral form factor and the quantum Lyapunov exponent, making these indicators of quantum chaos less effective in the context of a mixed phase space.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chandra measurements of gas homogeneity and turbulence at intermediate radii in the Perseus Cluster

ABSTRACT We present a Chandra study of surface brightness fluctuations in the diffuse intracluster medium of the Perseus Cluster. Our study utilizes deep, archival imaging of the cluster core as well as a new mosaic of 29 short $\, 5\,$-ks observations extending in eight different directions out to radii of $r_{500} \sim 2.2\, r_{2500}$. Under the assumption that the distribution of densities at a given radius is log-normally distributed, two important quantities can be derived from the width of the log-normal density distribution on a given spatial scale: the density bias, that is equal to the square root of the clumping factor C; and the one-component turbulent velocity, vk,1D. We forward-model all contributions to the measured surface brightness, including astrophysical and particle background components, and account for the Poisson nature of the measured signal. Measuring the distribution of surface brightness fluctuations in 1 arcmin2 regions, spanning the radial range $0.3\rm {-}2.2\, r_{2500}$ ($7.8\rm {-}57.3\,$ arcmin), we find a small to moderate average density bias of around $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at radii below $1.6\, r_{2500}$. We also infer an average turbulent velocity at these radii of V1D < 400 km s−1. Direct confirmation of our results on turbulent velocities inferred from surface brightness fluctuations should be possible using the X-ray calorimeter spectrometers to be flown aboard the XRISM and Athena observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The onset distribution of rotating m , n = 2 , 1 tearing modes and its consequences on the stability of high-confinement-mode plasmas in DIII-D

Abstract Analysis of a multi-scenario database of over 13 000 DIII-D H-mode discharges shows that the m , n = 2 , 1 magnetic islands are dominantly pressure gradient driven, stochastically triggered non-linear instabilities at all edge safety factor ( q 95 ) values. The instability onset time closely follows the exponential distribution in intermediate and high q 95 scenarios and is characterized by near constant onset rate ( λ ), in accordance with Poisson-point processes. This implies that the plasmas are operated in marginally stable conditions, characterized by a small threshold for instability growth and variations in the trigger amplitude and/or the stabilizing mechanisms with temporally uniform random distribution in this database. While the majority of the tearing modes occur in the first current-profile relaxation time of the β N flattop, constant λ throughout the β N flattop shows that the tearing onset is insensitive to the evolution of the equilibrium current profile. In low q 95 scenarios, where a large fraction of the plasmas are operated at low torque, λ increases over the course of the β N flattop, showing that these plasmas evolve toward more unstable conditions. The onset rate rapidly increases with β N , while it does not show a clear dependence on the current gradient at the mode rational surface. Overall, these observations support that the majority of the analyzed 2,1 tearing modes are non-linear, neoclassically driven instabilities and classical stability does not play a dominant role in their onset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sociodemographic effects on pandemic fatigue are multifaceted and context-specific: A longitudinal analysis of physical distancing adherence

Pandemic fatigue emerged early during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a concern as new variants emerge and ongoing public health measures are needed to control them. A wide range of factors can affect pandemic fatigue, but empiric research indicating which may be most important to adherence in specific populations is lacking. We conducted a longitudinal study of changes in physical distancing in two cohorts: adults living with children <18 years and adults ≥50 years old. Six types of non-work, non-household contacts were ascertained at six times from April to October 2020. We used generalized estimating equations Poisson regression to estimate the one-week change in contact rate and how this differed based on sociodemographic characteristics. The rate of all contact types increased during the middle of the study period and decreased toward the end. Changes in contact rates over time differed according to several sociodemographic characteristics, including age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, household composition, and access to transportation. Furthermore, the factors influencing the rate of change in contact rates differed by the type or setting of the contact, for example contacts as a result of visiting another person’s home versus during a retail outing. These results provide evidence for potential mechanisms by which pandemic fatigue has resulted in lower physical distancing adherence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Adiabatic Quantum Linear Solver Algorithm with Optimal Complexity Scaling and Detailed Running Costs

Solving linear systems of equations is a fundamental problem with a wide variety of applications across many fields of science, and there is increasing effort to develop quantum linear solver algorithms. Subaşı et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 060504 (2019)] proposed a randomized algorithm inspired by adiabatic quantum computing, based on a sequence of random Hamiltonian simulation steps, with suboptimal scaling in the condition number 𝜅 of the linear system and the target error 𝜖. Here we go beyond these results in several ways. Firstly, using filtering [Lin and Tong, Quantum 4, 361 (2020)] and Poissonization techniques [Cunningham and Roland, ArXiv:2406.03972 (2024)], the algorithm complexity is improved to the optimal scaling 𝑂⁡(𝜅⁢log (1/𝜖))—an exponential improvement in 𝜖, and a shaving of a log 𝜅 scaling factor in 𝜅. Secondly, the algorithm is further modified to achieve constant factor improvements, which are vital as we progress towards hardware implementations on fault-tolerant devices. We introduce a cheaper randomized walk operator method replacing Hamiltonian simulation—which also removes the need for potentially challenging classical precomputations; randomized routines are sampled over optimized random variables; circuit constructions are improved. We obtain a closed formula rigorously upper bounding the expected number of times one needs to apply a block-encoding of the linear system matrix to output a quantum state encoding the solution to the linear system. The upper bound is 837⁢𝜅 at 𝜖 = 10 −10 for Hermitian matrices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Constraints on extensions to Λ CDM with weak lensing and galaxy clustering

We constrain six possible extensions to the Λ cold dark matter (CDM) model using measurements from the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations, alone and in combination with external cosmological probes. The DES data are the two-point correlation functions of weak gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering, and their cross-correlation. We use simulated data vectors and blind analyses of real data to validate the robustness of our results to astrophysical and modeling systematic errors. In many cases, constraining power is limited by the absence of theoretical predictions beyond the linear regime that are reliable at our required precision. The Λ CDM extensions are dark energy with a time-dependent equation of state, nonzero spatial curvature, additional relativistic degrees of freedom, sterile neutrinos with eV-scale mass, modifications of gravitational physics, and a binned σ 8 ( z ) model which serves as a phenomenological probe of structure growth. For the time-varying dark energy equation of state evaluated at the pivot redshift we find ( w p , w a ) = ( - 0.9 9 - 0.17 + 0.28 , - 0.9 ± 1.2 ) at 68% confidence with z p = 0.24 from the DES measurements alone, and ( w p , w a ) = ( - 1.0 3 - 0.03 + 0.04 , - 0. 4 - 0.3 + 0.4 ) with z p = 0.21 for the combination of all data considered. Curvature constraints of Ω k = 0.0009 ± 0.0017 and effective relativistic species N eff = 3.1 0 - 0.16 + 0.15 are dominated by external data, though adding DES information to external low-redshift probes tightens the Ω k constraints that can be made without cosmic microwave background observables by 20%. For massive sterile neutrinos, DES combined with external data improves the upper bound on the mass m eff by a factor of 3 compared to previous analyses, giving 95% limits of ( Δ N eff , m eff ) ≤ ( 0.28 , 0.20 eV ) when using priors matching a comparable Planck analysis. For modified gravity, we constrain changes to the lensing and Poisson equations controlled by functions Σ ( k , z ) = Σ 0 Ω Λ ( z ) / Ω Λ , 0 and μ ( k , z ) = μ 0 Ω Λ ( z ) / Ω Λ , 0 , respectively, to Σ 0 = 0. 6 - 0.5 + 0.4 from DES alone and ( Σ 0 , μ 0 ) = ( 0.04 ± 0.05 , 0.0 8 - 0.19 + 0.21 ) for the combination of all data, both at 68% confidence. Overall, we find no significant evidence for physics beyond Λ CDM .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced critical axial tensile strain limit of CORC ® wires: FEM and analytical modeling

Abstract Conductor on Round Core (CORC ® ) cables and wires are composed of spiraled high-temperature superconducting (HTS) rare-earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) tapes, wound in multiple layers, and can carry very high currents in background magnetic fields of more than 20 T. They combine isotropic flexibility and high resilience to electromagnetic and thermal loads. The brittle nature of HTS tapes limits the maximum allowable axial tensile strain in superconducting cables. An intrinsic tensile strain above about 0.45% will introduce cracks in the REBCO layer of straight HTS tapes resulting in irreversible damage. The helical fashion at which the REBCO tapes are wound around the central core allows tapes to experience only a fraction of the total axial tensile strain applied to the CORC ® wire. As a result, the critical strain limit of CORC ® wires can be increased by a factor of more than 10 that of REBCO tapes. Finite element (FE) and analytical models are developed to predict the performance of CORC ® wires under axial tensile strain. A parametric analysis is carried out by varying the winding angle, the Poisson’s ratio of the CORC ® wire core, the core diameter, and the tape width. The results show that a small variation in winding angle can have a significant impact on the cable’s axial tensile strain tolerance. While the radial contraction of the helically wound tapes in a CORC ® wire under axial tensile strain depends on its winding angle, it is mostly driven by the Poisson’s ratio of the central core, affecting the tape strain state and thus its performance. Contact pressure from multiple layers within the CORC ® wire also affects the CORC ® wire performance. The FE model can be used to optimize the cable design for specific application conditions, resulting in an irreversible strain limit of CORC ® cables and wires as high as 7%.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complete quasilinear model for the acceleration-driven lower hybrid drift instability and a computational assessment of its validity

A complete quasilinear model is derived for the electrostatic acceleration-driven lower hybrid drift instability in a uniform two-species low-beta plasma in which current is perpendicular to the background magnetic field. The model consists of coupled nonlinear velocity space diffusion equations for the volume-averaged ion and electron distribution functions. Each species' diffusion coefficient depends on a time-evolving spectral density of the electric-field energy per unit volume and a time-evolving dispersion relation. The dispersion relation is expressed analytically in integral form without the use of asymptotic limits and applies to arbitrary distribution functions, so long as they can be expressed as a function of one velocity coordinate, e.g., f⁡(vy) or f⁡(v⊥). The quasilinear model conserves energy and is complete in that it fully describes the evolution of the distribution functions, including resonant and nonresonant particle-wave interactions, while accounting for distribution-function-dependent mixed-complex frequencies. Further, the quasilinear diffusion model is solved numerically and self-consistently using a Crank-Nicolson temporal discretization and a second-order finite-volume velocity-space discretization. Numerical solutions are compared to nonlinear fourth-order accurate continuum kinetic Vlasov-Poisson simulations. Evolution of electric-field energy, growth rates, distribution functions, and diffusion coefficients are shown to be in agreement with Vlasov simulations. The quasilinear model is shown to predict anomalous transport terms, like resistivity and heating, to within a factor of order unity. Discrepancies between the quasilinear model and Vlasov simulations are assessed and attributed primarily to lack of damping in the quasilinear description and to the use of unperturbed-orbit susceptibilities in the linear theory dispersion relation. The results illuminate the predictive accuracy of the quasilinear model, place approximate bounds on its validity, and provide much needed vetting of quasilinear theory's ability to predict the nonlinear state of a microturbulent plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Higher Ion Selectivity with Lower Energy Usage Promoted by Electro-osmotic Flow in the Transport through Conical Nanopores

The tradeoff between selectivity and throughput presents fundamental challenges to improve desalination and charge storage, salinity gradient-based energy harvesting, memory device/circuit development, and so forth. The well-known ion-current rectification and the recently resolved time-dependent transport hysteresis in conical nanopores or asymmetric nanointerfaces offer new opportunities for the selective transport of matter. This report shows that electro-osmotic flow (EOF) is an overlooked factor that increases ion selectivity while maintaining enhanced transport throughput in rectified nanoscale electrokinetic transport. The increased selectivity originates primarily from the suppression of anion flux by the fluid flow in the opposite direction under the applied electrical field. By solving the Poisson and Nernst–Planck (PNP) equations without and with coupled Navier–Stokes (PNP–NS) equations, the EOF effects on cation and anion transport are unequivocally revealed in asymmetric nanopipettes. The flux of cations and anions as well as the transference number and flow velocity are elucidated using the models and boundary conditions validated by previous experiments. A dimensionless parameter, radius over the Debye length, reveals optimal ion selectivity and energy cost at intermediate ion concentrations and nanopore sizes, up to hundreds of millimolars and tens of nanometers under time-dependent potential stimulus. Furthermore, the fundamental insights into EOF at nanointerfaces suggest new routes/strategies for better separation, analysis, and energy applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A model for discrete fracture-clay rock interaction incorporating electrostatic effects on transport

Abstract A model based on the code CrunchClay is presented for a fracture-clay matrix system that takes electrostatic effects on transport into account. The electrostatic effects on transport include those associated with the development of a diffusion potential as captured by the Nernst-Planck equation, and the formation of a diffuse layer bordering negatively charged clay particles within which partial anion exclusion occurs. The model is based on a dual continuum formulation that accounts for diffuse layer and bulk water pore space, providing a more flexible framework than is found in the classical mean electrostatic potential models. The diffuse layer model is obtained by volume averaging ion concentrations in the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, but also includes the treatment of longitudinal transport within this continuum. The calculation of transport within the bulk and diffuse layer porosity is based on a new formulation for the Nernst-Planck equation that considers averaging of diffusion coefficients and accumulation factors at grid cell interfaces. Equations for function residuals and the associated Jacobian matrix are presented such that the system of nonlinear differential-algebraic equations can be solved with Newton’s method. As an example, we consider a 2D system with a single discrete fracture within which flow and advective transport occurs that is coupled to diffusion in the clay-rich matrix. The simulation results demonstrate the lack of retardation for anions (e.g., 36 Cl − ) of the contaminant plume within the fracture flow system because they are largely excluded from the charged clay rock, while the migration of cations (e.g., 90 Sr ++ ) is more strongly attenuated. The diffusive loss of divalent cations in particular from the fracture is accentuated by their accumulation in the diffuse layer within the clay-rich matrix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of likelihood misspecification in Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

In recent years, several groups have designed Autonomous Experiment (AE) models with the aim of using them as an alternative method for neutron scattering scanning. In an AE, Gaussian processes (GPs) are most frequently used due to their interpretability, their non-parametric nature, their universal approximation, and their closed-form predictive distribution. GPs have two key components, namely, the model for the likelihood of a neutron count knowing the underlying dynamic structure factor and the acquisition function. In this paper, we investigate the impact, on the quality of an AE, of the likelihood and acquisition function choices, in energy scans and (Q, ω) ones, with respect to the signal-over-noise ratio. While we hypothesized that the quality of GP predictions would decrease when the normal to Poisson likelihood approximation breaks down at low count rates, we found that the use of the correct Poisson likelihood does not improve the quality of the data collected, as well as yields very poor results in (Q, ω) scans at low count rates. In fact, the best results are obtained with a combination of normal likelihood, including the observation noise, and the change in variance acquisition function. In addition, we find that the performance, or quality of the predictive distribution, is a misleading measure of efficiency, that is, of the quality of the data collected.

Perryman, David Elliott [Inst. Laue-Langevin (ILL)↗