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A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

The scoping, design, and plasma physics optimization of the Eos neutron source stellarator

On the path to a fusion pilot plant, Thea Energy plans to build Eos, a sub-breakeven, deuterium-deuterium, beam-target fusion, stellarator neutron source facility for producing tritium and other valuable radioisotopes. In this paper, a set of 1D plasma physics models are coupled and used to design the operating point of the facility and predict performance. At this foundational stage of the design, analytic and approximate models are sufficient to capture the leading-order effects, and fast enough to run in the inner loop of an optimizer. Higher-fidelity analyses will follow. Models of 1D profile-dependent neutral beam stopping, ion beam slowing down, beam-target fusion, electron-ion classical heat transfer, energy confinement (ISS04), beam pressure, beam heating of ions and electrons, beam-beam fusion fraction, and neutral beam injection and gyrotron heating electrical efficiencies are included. A numerical optimizer is used to determine the minimum required facility electric power to generate tritium at a given rate. A potentially advantageous regime is described in which modern precisely-quasisymmetric stellarators, new high-temperature superconductors, ITER-derived neutral beam injection, and new high-frequency gyrotrons enable a suitible target plasma with hot electrons, cold ions, peaked density and temperature profiles, and high beam-injected ion density. It appears possible at this time for a facility with a medium-scale and medium-strength stellarator whose required facility electric power is less than 40 MW to produce $2.5\times 10^{17}$ neutrons s -1 for the production of radioisotopes. With the addition of a tritium breeding blanket, such a facility could produce 0.2 grams d -1 or 70 grams yr -1 of tritium.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al

McGrath Community Energy Planning

The City of McGrath, a remote Alaskan community reliant on diesel fuel, developed a Community Energy Plan through the Energy Technologies Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) to address high energy costs, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and long-term sustainability. Guided by community-led priorities and technical assistance from partners including NREL, REAP, and ANTHC, the plan identifies eight focus areas: distribution system upgrades, solar and battery integration, river energy potential, emergency backup power, housing efficiency, water system losses, independent power producer models, and targeted funding strategies. The plan combines local knowledge with technical analysis to chart a path toward a more resilient, affordable, and sustainable energy future for McGrath.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

New Roadmap for Microelectronics: Charting the Semiconductor Industry's Path Over the Next 5, 10, and 20 Years

In the past, the role of strategic planning for semiconductor industry was met by the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), serving as a guiding light that provided manufacturers, designers, equipment suppliers, and researchers with direction years in advance. By providing a common framework for coordination across semiconductor industry stakeholders, technology development efforts were efficient and aligned. However, the dissolution of the ITRS in 2015 left a void, leading to years of disjointed efforts. Recognizing the need for unified guidance, the industry rallied for the creation of a new strategic plan, the Microelectronics and Advanced Packaging Technologies (MAPT) Roadmap (2023) was developed, through the efforts of hundreds of industry, academic and government experts, to provide detailed strategies for achieving these goals. This comprehensive plan outlines ambitious goals for the industry's future.

HPC, Roadmap, AI, Liquid Cooling, Power, Silicon,

Intern Poster Session 08/13: Autonomous Nuclear Robotics: Applications in nuclear waste inspection and hot cell experiments

The nuclear industry is experiencing renewed interest in autonomous robotics, yet most deployed systems remain teleoperated with limited autonomy. This work presents two contributions toward fully autonomous nuclear robotic systems: autonomous waste inspection at the Hanford Site and an autonomous hot cell laboratory framework. Inspections of Hanford's underground waste storage tanks are performed manually at significant cost and personnel exposure. We developed a reinforcement-learning (RL) training pipeline for a custom-built inspection arm. In parallel, we are designing an autonomous laboratory framework for post-irradiation examination in hot cells at the Specimen Preparation Laboratory (SPL) that integrates computer vision, task and motion planning, hardware execution, and operator-in-the-loop control. These systems demonstrate a path toward safer, more efficient nuclear operations by reducing human exposure while maintaining rigorous human oversight at critical decision points.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Municipal Fleet Action Plan Guide

This action plan template and guide have been designed to support light-duty or medium-duty municipal fleet managers as they plan to adopt electric vehicles. The resource is an adaptation of content created by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), with support from World Resources Institute (WRI), for participants in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy to Communities peer-learning cohort, Charting a Path to Municipal Fleet Electrification. Fifteen participating municipalities joined monthly cohort workshops from July through December 2024 to learn and plan for their own fleet electrification. Clean Cities and Communities coalitions supported participating municipalities throughout the cohort series by conducting fleet analysis and planning activities on their behalf. This template is an adapted version of cohort activities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Bias correcting regional scale Earth system model projections: novel approach using empirical mode decomposition

Bias correction is a crucial step in using Earth system model outputs for assessments, as it adjusts systematic errors by comparing the model to observations. However, standard methods – ranging from mean-based linear scaling to distribution-based quantile mapping typically treat bias correction as a single-scale process, overlooking the fact that biases can manifest differently across daily, seasonal, and annual timescales. In this study, we propose a novel, timescale-aware bias-correction approach built on Empirical Mode Decomposition. By decomposing the meteorological signal into multiple oscillatory components and aggregating them to represent distinct timescales, we apply targeted corrections to each component, thereby preserving both short- and long-term structure in the data. Experimental illustrations show that the timescale-aware EMDBC framework matches the performance of conventional quantile-delta mapping (QDM) at the native daily scale and achieves progressively larger bias reductions at bi-weekly, seasonal, and annual scales. As a result, the proposed approach offers a more robust path to accurate and reliable Earth system projections, strengthening their utility for resilience and adaptation planning.

Ganguli, Arkaprabha [Argonne National Laboratory (

Alfalfa Virtual Building Service: Software Engineering Best Practices Applied to Runtime Interaction with Building Energy Models

Buildings are active participants in increasingly complex energy systems. Building Energy Modeling (BEM) has a key role to play in planning and de-risking an equitable energy transition, with BEM-backed "virtual buildings" critical path for diverse applications that include workforce training tools, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) experimentation to study equipment performance under a range of conditions, Control-Hardware-in-the-Loop (CHIL) experimentation to de-risk commercial control implementations at equipment through grid orchestration levels, and integration of dynamic load profiles into grid modeling tools for energy system experimentation at the urban scale. Modeling requirements vary across these applications, but many software engineering tasks do not. The Alfalfa Virtual Building Service (AVBS, see https://github.com/NREL/alfalfa/wiki) is an open-source web service that solves these common tasks robustly in one place, providing a foundational platform for power users to bootstrap their own applications. AVBS abstracts the specifics of runtime interaction with OpenStudio, Modelica, and Spawn of EnergyPlus models behind a unified REST API. Additionally, AVBS provides resources for cloud deployment and scaling to 100s of parallel simulations, a growing library of modular Operational Technology (OT) integrations for emulation of real-world interfaces, and scripts to automate the population of communities of virtual buildings from URBANopt, ResStock and ComStock.

building automation

Multi-Resolution UAV Path Replanning for Inspection of Tailings Dams

Autonomous inspection of large and complex structures with a commercial unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is a challenging problem that has been addressed in recent years. In this paper, we address the global motion planning problem of creating autonomous inspection missions for UAVs considering photogrammetry constraints. We focus on the inspection of large tailings dams, which are dam structures used to store waste byproducts of mining. Our method uses a prior sparse point cloud of the dam to generate a voxel grid, where paths satisfying photogrammetry constraints are tested for collisions. We then apply the A* algorithm as a local planner to avoid obstacles within the global mission. Moreover, we address the problem of changing routes online by using octree-based multi-resolution grids for efficient and fast pathfinding. Our results, obtained using tridimensional maps of an actual coal mine tailings dam, show that using octrees for multi-resolution motion planning is faster than using a fixed voxel grid in online missions while inspecting large structures.

42 ENGINEERING

Integrated Methane Monitoring Platform Design

This report presents design plans for integrated methane monitoring platforms for the oil and gas sector, which include satellites, aircrafts, drones, mobile platforms, open-path systems, sensor networks, LDAR techniques, and other systems.

03 NATURAL GAS

Storage Innovations 2030: Mapping a Path to $0.05/kWh

This is a presentation, where the team updates industry and DOE on progress made in the Storage Innovations 2030 initiative. The team also presents updates to the methodology, plans for the future, and revised results.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE

Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan for Corrective Action Unit 114: Area 25 EMAD Facility Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

This Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER) Plan addresses the actions needed to achieve closure for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 114, Area 25 EMAD Facility, identified in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO). CAU 114 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs) located in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site: • 25-41-03, EMAD Facility (Building 3900) • 25-99-23, Manned Control Car (MCC) and Engine Installation Vehicle (EIV) • 25-33-05, Building 3901, Engine Transport System Maintenance Building (Train Shed) This plan provides the methodology for field activities needed to gather the necessary information for closing CAU 114. There is sufficient information and process knowledge from historical documentation and investigations of similar sites regarding the expected nature and extent of potential contaminants to recommend closure of CAU 114 using the SAFER process. Additional information will be obtained by conducting a field investigation before selecting the appropriate corrective actions for CAU 114. It is anticipated that the results of the field investigation and implementation of corrective actions will support a defensible recommendation that no further corrective action is necessary. The purpose of the corrective action investigation will be to document and verify the adequacy of existing information; to affirm the decision for either clean closure, closure in place, or no further action; and to provide sufficient data to implement the corrective action. The actual corrective action selected will be based on characterization activities implemented under this SAFER Plan. If specific conditions or findings fall outside the bounds of the conceptual site model, such as an unanticipated release, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) will be consulted to determine the path forward before proceeding. Upon completion of SAFER activities, a closure report (CR) will be prepared and submitted to NDEP for review and approval. The schedule for completion of the CR will be established in consultation with NDEP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Plan energético estratégico: Playa de Ponce, Ponce, Puerto Rico [Strategic Energy Plan: Playa de Ponce, Ponce, Puerto Rico]

Un Nuevo Amanecer Inc. (UNA), a community-based NGO (501C(3)), sought technical assistance through the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) to develop a strategic energy plan (SEP) for the community of Playa de Ponce on the south coast of Puerto Rico. A SEP helps communities identify energy goals and priority projects, and outline strategies and actions to build a shared path toward their energy vision.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Full Submersion Water Testing of SAVY-4000 Nuclear Material Storage Containers

SAVY-4000 (SAVY) containers are the primary container used at Technical Area (TA) TA-55 plutonium facility for the prevention of water ingress to mitigate against a criticality event. The basis for water resistance of these containers has long been attributed to the Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) membrane that is assembled on the outermost surface of the filter assembly. On August 22nd a test of a container used inside of a glovebox was performed that brought into question this long-standing-basis. This test was performed by inverting a SAVY-lid onto a specialized piece of equipment for evaluating the integrity of the PTFE membrane. During the test water was observed passing through the filter indicating that the filter membrane was no longer preventing the ingress of water through the filter. The assumption after making this observation was that alpha-particles were rapidly degrading the membrane creating a leak path through the underlying aluminosilicate media (Fiberfrax®). The apparatus used was designed to only test the lid rather than the entire SAVY assembly. A test plan, PA-PLAN-01921, was developed to investigate whether a fully assembled container with a fully degraded PTFE membrane would be capable of meeting the criteria defined in PA-RD-1009 of not allowing more than 200 ml of water to enter the container with a water column of 6-inches applied over a 2-hour period. This report provides the results of the testing performed against PA-PLAN-01921.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Theranostic Radiopnictogens: 71 As, 72 As, and 119 Sb (Final Technical Report)

This project has developed new methods for the cyclotron production of medically relevant radionuclides 71 As and 119 Sb. Arsenic and antimony are chemically homologous elements (group 5A, also known as the pnictogens) that have radionuclides that are of considerable interest within nuclear medicine. Such radiopnictogens include the potentially therapeutic radionuclides 119 Sb (t 1/2 = 38 h) that decays with the emission of 24.5 low energy, high potency electrons per decay with little concomitant photon radiation and 77 As (t 1/2 = 39 h) that decays with average beta energy of 230 keV and diagnostic nuclides 71 As (t 1/2 = 65 h, 28% β+) and 72 As (t 1/2 = 26 h, 80% β+) for positron emission tomography (PET). This work has had major success developing new methods for the cyclotron production and radiochemical isolation of 71 As, supporting parallel developments for 119 Sb, and assessing the chemical similarities between these two homologous radionuclides. This project brought into collaboration two universities with complimentary skill sets, proficiencies, expertise, and facilities: the University of Wisconsin (UWisc) and the University of Missouri (Mizzou). Professors Ellison and Engle have experience in the small cyclotron production and radiochemical isolation of radionuclides, including 72 As and 119 Sb. Their recently developed metallurgic methods for fabricating cyclotron targets have great potential to expand and allow for the biomedical cyclotron production of long- lived, lower positron energy 71 As. Professors Hennkens and Jurisson have significant experience in the reactor production, radiochemical isolation, and biological functionalization of radioarsenic. Recent development of trithiol-based chelator molecules for functionalizing radioarsenic provide a platform for the investigation of the fundamental challenges of the promising low-energy-electron emitter, 119 Sb. Through their positions within their respective University’s graduate schools, the PIs and Co-Is effectively trained of graduate students and postdoctoral researchers in nuclear and radiochemistry, sub-specialties specifically identified in the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Isotope Program long-range plan. Annual laboratory research visits for students between UWisc and Mizzou provided essential broad-field experience and scientific networking that is critical for maintaining their path along the training pipeline to productive careers in isotope production. This research collaboration has provided significant benefits to the DOE University Isotope Network and radionuclide-using researchers around the country.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES

M3SF-24LL010302052-Comprehensive Analysis of Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Work Package Number SF-24LL01030205. The research is focused on actinide and radionuclide sequestration in hydrothermally altered repository materials. In FY24, we completed a rigorous analysis of Se sorption to iron oxide phases using our L-SCIE sorption database. This effort explicitly accounts for surface titration behavior of oxide surfaces that was the subject of a recently published manuscript (Han et al., 2023). With this in mind, our Se sorption analysis now yields a more robust workflow for developing self-consistent surface complexation modeling approaches that can be adapted to specific SCM conceptual and numerical approaches (i.e. non-electrostatic, diffuse layer, triple layer models). In late FY24, we plan to publish the results of our comprehensive surface complexation modeling of Se(IV) and Se(VI) sorption to iron oxide mineral phases and provide a path forward to developing robust radionuclide sorption models for use in performance assessment. In FY24, we also submitted a manuscript summarizing our approach to integrating radionuclide sorption and coprecipitation phenomena and evaluation of radionuclide partitioning values across a range of radionuclides relevant to performance assessment. We demonstrated our approach in detail using Se sorption and coprecipitation with iron oxide minerals as a test case. This manuscript was recently accepted for publication in Applied Geochemistry (Balboni et al., Accepted). We also continued experiments to identify radionuclide interaction with hydrothermally altered crystalline repository and backfill materials. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are now examining how mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database, developed using our L-SCIE approach, can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. A short update of results to date is presented below.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA