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Dynamic parameter estimation of generators

Various examples are provided for parameter estimation of generators. In one example, among others, a method includes collecting data corresponding to a generator using a phasor management unit (PMU) and estimating dynamic parameters of the generator using extended Kalman filtering (EKF) and the collected PMU data. In another example, a system includes at least one application executable in a processing device that obtains operational data corresponding to a generator and estimates a dynamic parameter of the generator using EKF and the operational data. In another example, an EKF estimator includes a dynamics estimator configured to estimate a state variable of a generator, a geometry estimator configured to estimate phasor values associated with the generator, and a Kalman filter gain configured to determine a correction to the state variable.

Miao, Zhixin↗

Constraints on Large-Scale White Noise in the Cosmic Density Field

We present observational constraints on large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the cosmic density field, a phenomenon predicted to arise from non-linear mode coupling during cosmological evolution. Building on the theoretical framework of Paper I, where we demonstrated that non-linearities inevitably redistribute power from small to large scales through mode mixing, we confront these predictions with current cosmological data. We modify the CLASS Boltzmann code to incorporate a white noise component $k_\mathrm{BH}/k$ in the primordial power spectrum and perform parameter estimation using current cosmological data. The non-detection of excess power on the largest observable scales places stringent upper bounds: $k_\mathrm{BH} \leq 1.80 \times 10^{-13}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 99% confidence. These constraints imply the primordial power spectrum must deviate from perfect scale invariance on small scales, either through a cutoff at $k_{\mathrm{cut}} \lesssim 3~\mathrm{pc}^{-1}$ or through running of the spectral index with $α_s \lesssim -0.015$. Our results demonstrate that LSWN provides a powerful probe of the primordial spectrum at scales orders of magnitude smaller than directly observable, offering unique constraints on early-universe physics.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗

Transformer Health Monitoring Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

As integral components of any power plant, transformers supply the generated electricity to the grid. However, a transformer’s cellulose-based paper insulation and the mineral oil in which it is immersed break down over time under standard operating conditions—or more rapidly due to potential faults within the system. As the transformer’s mineral oil breaks down, gases are released that can be measured and monitored. This technical brief exhibits a collection of diagnostic and prognostic techniques that utilities can adopt in lieu of labor-intensive periodic preventive maintenance routines. Furthermore, prognostic models have been incorporated using the latest version of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard (IEEE, 2019) for dissolved gas analysis (DGA), thus expanding it to include estimation of the time to maintenance. Overall, four different methodologies are explained, each of which aids in determining a transformer’s state of health. These methodologies include the Chendong model, the IEEE thermal life consumption model (IEEE, 2012), a diagnostic model for DGA, and a prognostic model for DGA that uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. An additional improvement for estimating missing system parameters by using monitoring data (i.e., a tool for parameter estimation utilizing Powell’s method) is presented, enabling the IEEE thermal life consumption model to benefit not only the collaborating power plant, but also the power industry at large.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analytical solution and parameter estimation for heat of wetting and vapor adsorption during spontaneous imbibition in tuff

An analytical expression is derived for the thermal response observed during spontaneous imbibition of water into a dry core of zeolitic tuff. Sample tortuosity, thermal conductivity, and thermal source strength are estimated from fitting an analytical solution to temperature observations during a single laboratory test. Here, the closed-form analytical solution is derived using Green's functions for heat conduction in the limit of “slow” water movement; that is, when advection of thermal energy with the wetting front is negligible. The solution has four free fitting parameters and is efficient for parameter estimation. Laboratory imbibition data used to constrain the model include a time series of the mass of water imbibed, visual location of the wetting front through time, and temperature time series at six locations. The thermal front reached the end of the core hours before the visible wetting front. Thus, the predominant form of heating during imbibition in this zeolitic tuff is due to vapor adsorption in dry zeolitic rock ahead of the wetting front. The separation of the wetting front and thermal front in this zeolitic tuff is significant, compared to wetting front behavior of most materials reported in the literature. This work is the first interpretation of a thermal imbibition response to estimate transport (tortuosity) and thermal properties (including thermal conductivity) from a single laboratory test.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MultiPEM Toolbox: User Manual [Rev. 2]

This document explains use of the Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (Multi PEM) Toolbox, a collection of R scripts for estimating the unknown device parameters of a new event with uncertainty quantification. The methodology and application used for illustration in this user manual are fully documented in a Los Alamos National Laboratory technical report hereafter designated “WPA” for reference. Additional details on the application are found in a recent journal article. Two assessment types are available: rapid and complete. Rapid assessments are conducted in two stages, as described in Section 2. In the first stage, calibration data are used to estimate forward and error model parameters (WPA, §5.1) and (if relevant) errors-in-variables yield values for calibration sources (WPA, §3, Equation (3)). In the second stage, new event data are used to estimate the unknown new event device parameters (WPA, §5.2) with uncertainty quantification. Two options for treating the inferred first stage parameters in second stage Bayesian analysis are available: fixing them at their maximum likelihood estimate (default), or multiple imputation. Multiple imputation involves utilizing several posterior samples (imputations) of the first stage parameters as fixed values in the second stage posterior sampling of the new event device parameters. Second stage sampling is conducted across imputations in parallel to improve computational efficiency. This method produces improved uncertainty quantification of the new event device parameters compared with the default treatment of the first stage parameters, at the expense of additional computation. Complete assessments are conducted in a single stage, as described in Section 3. Calibration and (if relevant) new event data are used simultaneously to estimate all forward model, error model, and (if relevant) new event device parameters with uncertainty quantification on the latter. As the name suggests, rapid assessments generally run substantially faster than complete assessments (even with multiple imputation), because the results of first stage analysis can be stored and incorporated into estimating a relatively low-dimensional space of new event device parameters whenever relevant new event data becomes available. On the other hand, complete assessments must be run on the full set of model and device parameters with calibration and new event data every time the latter becomes available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable Predictive And Risk Technologies

The research involves developing scalable technologies for risk-informed predictive analytics to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop technologies to scale risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms across different plant assets at the plant site and across the nuclear fleet. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation using plant operation data 2. Federated and Transfer learning model 3. Feature group based Multi-kernel SVM 4. Three state markov model

Manjunatha, KoushikAraseethota↗

My Virtual Cancer

Since each cancer has its own unique characteristics, each one can respond differently to the same treatments. Therefore, the creation of a digital twin (DT) of cancer can assist us in predicting the evolution of an individual's cancer through modeling each tumor's characteristics and response to treatment. Hence, we propose to take advantage of new advances in computational approaches and combine mechanistic, machine learning, and stochastic modeling approaches to create “My Virtual Cancer", a DT platform. To establish a personalized DT, we use patient-specific data for parameter estimations, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. For each patient, we will estimate the values of parameters of their QSP model using the patient's data. We perform a multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification on the mechanistic model to find a set of critical interactions and predict the intervals of confidence. Since this QSP model includes the data-driven mechanistic model of cells and molecules' interaction networks, one of the ultimate results of this DT would be the prediction of evolution of tumors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Physics-informed Karhunen-Loeve and Neural Network Approximations for Solving Inverse Differential Equation Problems

Here we present the PI-CKL-NN method for parameter estimation in differential equation (DE) models given sparse measurements of the parameters and states. In the proposed approach, the space- or time-dependent parameters are approximated by Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansions that are conditioned on the parameters’ measurements, and the states are approximated by deep neural networks (DNNs). The unknown weights in the KL expansions and DNNs are found my minimizing the cost function that enforces the measurements of the states the DE constraint. Regularization is achieved by adding the l2 norm of the conditional KL coefficients into the loss function. Our approach assumes that the parameter fields are correlated in space or time and enforces the statistical knowledge (the mean and the covariance function) in addition to the DE constraints and measurements as opposed to the physics-informed neural network (PINN) and other similar physics-informed machine learning methods where only DE constraints and data are used for parameter estimation. We use the PI-CKL-NN method for parameter estimation in an ordinary differential equation with an unknown time-dependent parameter and the one- and two-dimensional partial differential diffusion equations with unknown space-dependent diffusion coefficients. We also demonstrate that PI-CKL-NN is more accurate than the PINN method, especially when the observations of the parameters are very sparse

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantifying adoption rates and energy savings over time for advanced energy-efficient manufacturing technologies

Energy-efficient manufacturing technologies can reduce energy consumption and lower operating costs for manufacturing facilities, but up-front costs and increased process complexity frequently lead to manufacturers being reluctant to adopt such technologies. To avoid overestimating the benefits of advanced energy-efficient manufacturing technologies, it is necessary to account for how quickly and how widely the technology will be adopted by manufacturers. This work develops a method for estimating manufacturing technology adoption rates using quantitative technology characteristics including energetic, economic, and technical criteria that capture both incentives (such as energy and cost savings) and disincentives (such as increased process complexity) for technology adoption. This method is unique in that it can be applied before or after a technology reaches the market; other adoption rate estimation methods require sales data and can only be applied post-market. Eleven technology characteristics are considered, with each characteristic weighted to reflect its impact on the overall technology adoption rate. Technology characteristic data is used to estimate model parameters for the Bass diffusion curve, which quantifies the change in the number of new technology adopters in a population over time. Finally, energy savings at the sector level are calculated over time by multiplying the number of new technology adopters at each time step with the technology’s facility-level energy savings. The proposed method is demonstrated with an application to glass industry manufacturing technologies using technology data obtained from the U.S. Department of Energy's 2017 bandwidth study. The potential energy savings for each technology and the rate at which each technology is adopted in the sector are quantified and used to identify the technologies which offer the greatest cumulative sector-level energy savings over a period of 20 years.

advanced manufacturing↗

Transient and Steady-State Inverse Problems in Sierra/Aria

Inverse problems arise in a wide range of applications, whenever unknown model parameters cannot be measured directly. Instead, the unknown parameters are estimated using experimental data and forward simulations. Thermal inverse problems, such as material characterization problems, are often large-scale and transient. Therefore, they require intrusive adjoint-based gradient implementations in order to be solved efficiently. The capability to solve large-scale transient thermal inverse problems using an adjoint-based approach was recently implemented in SNL Sierra Mechanics, a massively parallel capable multiphysics code suite. This report outlines the theory, optimization formulation, and path taken to implement thermal inverse capabilities in Sierra within a unit test framework. The capability utilizes Sierra/Aria and Sierra/Fuego data structures, the Rapid Optimization Library, and an interface to the Sierra/InverseOpt library. The existing Sierra/Aria time integrator is leveraged to implement a time-dependent adjoint solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Kinetics Modeling and Reactor Design Study of Glucose-to-Terpenes Cell-Free Conversion

Cell-free systems offer many advantages over traditional biological conversion by eliminating biological growth constraints. It also offers easy manipulation and finetuning of the reaction conditions for each individual enzyme. The conversion of cellulosic glucose to Limonene, a terpene, is a promising pathway for producing fuels and chemicals. Recent advances in developing cell-free systems focuses on bench scale optimization of terpene yield and to demonstrate its feasibility towards commercialization [1,2]. There is significant knowledge gap regarding reaction kinetics of these cell-free systems to further study how it will perform at larger scale. We present here, our studies on reaction kinetics and reactor design implications of cell-free glucose to Limonene conversion to facilitate the further development and commercialization of this process. We developed a novel kinetic model based on the metabolic-network structure of the cell-free system with multi-substrate reversible Michaelis-Menten rate law. To estimate kinetic parameters for this system of rate equations, we employed Bayesian optimization to perform global search with the assistance of gaussian processes to balance exploration and exploitation. The model parameters estimated showed good results compared with experimental data. The estimated parameters were used to perform sensitivity analysis. We found that Hexokinase is one of the most critical enzymes that affect the conversion of the glucose. We also observed that abundance of co-factors is also critical to the conversion of glucose to limonene. We investigated packed bed reactors with enzymes immobilized on the surface of particles to convert glucose stream into Limonene for larger scale production. The reactor design such as particle size, enzyme loading, and flow rate are found to be critical for improving yields. [1] Dudley, Q.M., Nash, C.J. and Jewett, M.C., 2019. Synthetic Biology, 4(1), p.ysz003. [2] Korman, T.P., Opgenorth, P.H. and Bowie, J.U., 2017. Nature communications, 8(1), p.15526.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Non-local gravity and comparison with observational datasets

We study the cosmological predictions of two recently proposed non-local modifications of General Relativity. Both models have the same number of parameters as ΛCDM, with a mass parameter m replacing the cosmological constant. We implement the cosmological perturbations of the non-local models into a modification of the CLASS Boltzmann code, and we make a full comparison to CMB, BAO and supernova data. We find that the non-local models fit these datasets very well, at the same level as ΛCDM. Among the vast literature on modified gravity models, this is, to our knowledge, the only example which fits data as well as ΛCDM without requiring any additional parameter. For both non-local models parameter estimation using Planck +JLA+BAO data gives a value of H{sub 0} slightly higher than in ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Hubble diagram for quasars

We present a new method to test the ΛCDM cosmological model and to estimate cosmological parameters based on the nonlinear relation between the ultraviolet and X-ray luminosities of quasars. We built a data set of 1138 quasars by merging several samples from the literature with X-ray measurements at 2 keV and SDSS photometry, which was used to estimate the extinction-corrected 2500 Å flux. We obtained three main results: (1) we checked the nonlinear relation between X-ray and UV luminosities in small redshift bins up to z∼6, confirming that the relation holds at all redshifts with the same slope; (2) we built a Hubble diagram for quasars up to z∼6, which is well matched to that of supernovae in the common z = 0–1.4 redshift interval and extends the test of the cosmological model up to z∼6; and (3) we showed that this nonlinear relation is a powerful tool for estimating cosmological parameters. Using the present data and assuming a ΛCDM model, we obtain Ω{sub M} = 0.22{sub −0.08}{sup +0.10} and Ω{sub Λ} = 0.92{sub −0.30}{sup +0.18} (Ω{sub M} = 0.28 ± 0.04 and Ω{sub Λ} = 0.73 ± 0.08 from a joint quasar-SNe fit). Much more precise measurements will be achieved with future surveys. A few thousand SDSS quasars already have serendipitous X-ray observations from Chandra or XMM-Newton, and at least 100,000 quasars with UV and X-ray data will be made available by the extended ROentgen Survey with an Imaging Telescope Array all-sky survey in a few years. The Euclid, Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, and Advanced Telescope for High ENergy Astrophysics surveys will further increase the sample size to at least several hundred thousand. Our simulations show that these samples will provide tight constraints on the cosmological parameters and will allow us to test for possible deviations from the standard model with higher precision than is possible today.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NONPARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATION THROUGH DECONVOLUTION IN PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

The advent of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations and availability of open source software made full hierarchical Bayesian analysis tractable and a popular choice in parameter estimation for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). However, despite its theoretical attractiveness, the hierarchical Bayesian analysis is not without its problems. Two of the most prominent practical difficulties in applying hierarchical Bayes analysis in practice to analyze source-to-source variability, for example, is its sensitivity to the selection of the first-stage prior and dependence of the rate of convergence on the selection of the first-stage prior. The first-stage prior in hierarchical Bayesian analysis is usually assumed having a parametric form, often conjugate to the likelihood function (aleatory model). To facilitate convergence for hierarchical Bayes models, the first-stage prior is frequently set through empirical Bayes estimate, which can use available historical data to find the parameters of the first-stage prior. The paper discusses a new nonparametric empirical Bayes estimation and compare it to several well-known parametric estimates such as method of moments and maximum likelihood. The new nonparametric technique exploits the prior predictive distribution as integral equation and proceeds to solve it with respect to prior assuming the sampling data distribution and aleatory model are available. The discussion covers topics such as selection of aleatory model for future data, selection of regularization parameter, and density estimation for historical data. For comparison, the paper is using contrived as well as real-world data from utilities. Utilities data represent failure data with Poisson distribution used for aleatory model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO 2 , warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems, biomes, and models. This framework has been successfully implemented by several global land models, such as CABLE (Xia et al., 2013), LPJ-GUESS (Ahlström et al., 2015), CLM (Hararuk et al., 2014; Huang et al., 2017, submitted; Shi et al., 2017, submitted), and ORCHIDEE (Huang et al., 2017, unpublished). Moreover, we have identified the theoretical foundation of the determinants of transient C storage dynamics by adding another term, C storage potential, to the steady-state traceability framework (Luo et al., 2017). The theoretical foundation of transient C storage dynamics has been applied to develop a transient traceability framework to explore the traceable components of transient C storage dynamics responded to the rising CO 2 and climate change in the two contrasting ecosystem types Duke needleleaved forest and Harvard deciduous broadleaved forest (Jiang et al., 2017, in revision). Overall, with the data synthesis, data assimilation techniques, and the steady-state and transient traceability frameworks, we have greatly improved land process models for predicting responses and feedback of terrestrial C dynamics to global change. The matrix approaches has the potential to be applied in theoretical research on nitrogen and phosphorus cycle, and therefore, the coupling of carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗