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Solar PV Manufacturing Cost Model Group: Installed Solar PV System Prices (Presentation)

EERE's Solar Energy Technologies Program is charged with leading the Secretary's SunShot Initiative to reduce the cost of electricity from solar by 75% to be cost competitive with conventional energy sources without subsidy by the end of the decade. As part of this Initiative, the program has funded the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop module manufacturing and solar PVsystem installation cost models to ensure that the program's cost reduction targets are carefully aligned with current and near term industry costs. The NREL cost analysis team has leveraged the laboratories' extensive experience in the areas of project finance and deployment, as well as industry partnerships, to develop cost models that mirror the project cost analysis tools used by projectmanagers at leading U.S. installers. The cost models are constructed through a 'bottoms-up' assessment of each major cost element, beginning with the system's bill of materials, labor requirements (type and hours) by component, site-specific charges, and soft costs. In addition to the relevant engineering, procurement, and construction costs, the models also consider all relevant costs to aninstaller, including labor burdens and overhead rates, supply chain costs, and overhead and materials inventory costs, and assume market-specific profits.

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Effect of Component Failures on Economics of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems

This report describes an applied research program to assess the realistic costs of grid connected photovoltaic (PV) installations. A Board of Advisors was assembled that included management from the regional electric power utilities, as well as other participants from companies that work in the electric power industry. Although the program started with the intention of addressing effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) for utility-owned photovoltaic installations, results from the literature study and recommendations from the Board of Advisors led investigators to the conclusion that obtaining effective data for this analysis would be difficult, if not impossible. The effort was then re-focused on assessing the realistic costs and economic valuations of grid-connected PV installations. The 17 kW PV installation on the University of Hartford's Lincoln Theater was used as one source of actual data. The change in objective required a more technically oriented group. The re-organized working group (changes made due to the need for more technically oriented participants) made site visits to medium-sized PV installations in Connecticut with the objective of developing sources of operating histories. An extensive literature review helped to focus efforts in several technical and economic subjects. The objective of determining the consequences of component failures on both generation and economic returns required three analyses. The first was a Monte-Carlo-based simulation model for failure occurrences and the resulting downtime. Published failure data, though limited, was used to verify the results. A second model was developed to predict the reduction in or loss of electrical generation related to the downtime due to these failures. Finally, a comprehensive economic analysis, including these failures, was developed to determine realistic net present values of installed PV arrays. Two types of societal benefits were explored, with quantitative valuations developed for both. Some societal benefits associated with financial benefits to the utility of having a distributed generation capacity that is not fossil-fuel based have been included into the economic models. Also included and quantified in the models are several benefits to society more generally: job creation and some estimates of benefits from avoiding greenhouse emissions. PV system failures result in a lowering of the economic values of a grid-connected system, but this turned out to be a surprisingly small effect on the overall economics. The most significant benefit noted resulted from including the societal benefits accrued to the utility. This provided a marked increase in the valuations of the array and made the overall value proposition a financially attractive one, in that net present values exceeded installation costs. These results indicate that the Department of Energy and state regulatory bodies should consider focusing on societal benefits that create economic value for the utility, confirm these quantitative values, and work to have them accepted by the utilities and reflected in the rate structures for power obtained from grid-connected arrays. Understanding and applying the economic benefits evident in this work can significantly improve the business case for grid-connected PV installations. This work also indicates that the societal benefits to the population are real and defensible, but not nearly as easy to justify in a business case as are the benefits that accrue directly to the utility.

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Using the Spatial Distribution of Installers to Define Solar Photovoltaic Markets

Solar PV market research to date has largely relied on arbitrary jurisdictional boundaries, such as counties, to study solar PV market dynamics. This paper seeks to improve solar PV market research by developing a methodology to define solar PV markets. The methodology is based on the spatial distribution of solar PV installers. An algorithm is developed and applied to a rich dataset of solar PV installations to study the outcomes of the installer-based market definitions. The installer-based approach exhibits several desirable properties. Specifically, the higher market granularity of the installer-based approach will allow future PV market research to study the relationship between market dynamics and pricing with more precision.

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Application of Manufacturing Quality Management Principles to PV System Installations

To help SETO/DOE achieve its goals, the IBTS team proposed a project addressing system reliability by improving installation standards and quality management. The proposed approach was designed to help achieve measurable reductions in installation defect density and improvements in the performance of PV systems by optimizing design and installation of residential and commercial PV systems. This approach addressed the soft costs associated with installations and quality management. The project demonstrated improved system reliability and reduced PV system installation costs. The software developed improved operations, decreased risk, and increased the overall value of PV systems across their lifecycle. The project used several data collection methods, including extensive industry surveys, face-to-face high-level interviews at industry conferences, stakeholder teleconferences, and in-depth interviews conducted by IBTS staff. Results from the research found the industry needs a uniform assessment method for national providers to be more efficient; the software should support both code officials and installers; most industry stakeholders would find value in a centralized software system that allows them to collect, report, and review information on in-process and completed solar installations; and mobile solutions that bridge existing knowledge gaps with inspectors and integrate with existing methodologies (such as permitting software) are of great value. The software solution developed is web-based, allowing for national access, and is built on a Google Firebase platform that can handle significant users and data. It can be used onsite or remotely, allowing for code compliance to continue despite ongoing pandemic related delays or shutdowns for local economies. The information provided by the software tool allows users to uniformly assess a system for compliance and use that aggregated data to identify training topics or create internal process designed to improving issues and reducing occurrence. This solution has multiple benefits in managing quality at time of use and promoting an increase in future safety and quality through education. Perhaps most importantly, this software increases public safety by ensuring compliance of installed systems and allows for local AHJs to remotely engage specialized and qualified solar specific expertise for oversite of the installation in their jurisdictions. Data analysis provides the quality feedback loop identifying the root cause of failure and drives installation practices to improve through training and education, resulting in systems with higher performance, greater reliability, and reduced operations and maintenance costs. With the successful completion of this project, the industry can expect reduced soft costs and increased performance and safety and will ultimately benefit from longer performing systems that cost less to operate.

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Solar Access to Public Capital (SAPC) Working Group: Best Practices in PV System Installation; Version 1.0, March 2015; Period of Performance, October 2014 - September 2015

The following Photovoltaics Installation Best Practices Guide is one of several work products developed by the Solar Access to Public Capital (SAPC) working group, which works to open capital market investment. SAPC membership includes over 450 leading solar developers, financiers and capital managers, law firms, rating agencies, accounting and engineering firms, and other stakeholders engaged in solar asset deployment. SAPC activities are directed toward foundational elements necessary to pool project cash flows into tradable securities: standardization of power purchase and lease contracts for residential and commercial end customers; development of performance and credit data sets to facilitate investor due diligence activities; comprehension of risk perceived by rating agencies; and the development of best practice guides for PV system installation and operations and maintenance (O&M) in order to encourage high-quality system deployment and operation that may improve lifetime project performance and energy production. This PV Installation Best Practices Guide was developed through the SAPC Installation Best Practices subcommittee, a subgroup of SAPC comprised of a wide array of solar industry leaders in numerous fields of practice. The guide was developed over roughly one year and eight months of direct engagement by the subcommittee and two working group comment periods.

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The geography of solar energy in the United States: Market definition, industry structure, and choice in solar PV adoption

The solar photovoltaic (PV) installation industry comprises thousands of firms around the world who collectively installed nearly 200 million panels in 2015. Spatial analysis of the emerging industry has received considerable attention from the literature, especially on the demand side concerning peer effects and adopter clustering. However this research area does not include similarly sophisticated spatial analysis on the supply side of the installation industry. The lack of understanding of the spatial structure of the PV installation industry leaves PV market research to rely on jurisdictional lines, such as counties, to define geographic PV markets. We develop an approach that uses the spatial distribution of installers' activity to define geographic boundaries for PV markets. Our method is useful for PV market research and applicable in the contexts of other industries. We use our approach to demonstrate that the PV industry in the United States is spatially heterogeneous. Despite the emergence of some national-scale PV installers, installers are largely local and installer communities are unique from one region to the next. The social implications of the spatial heterogeneity of the emerging PV industry involve improving understanding of issues such as market power, industry consolidation, and how much choice potential adopters have.

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Empirically Derived Strength of Residential Roof Structures for Solar Installations

Engineering certification for the installation of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules on wood roofs is often denied because existing wood roofs do not meet structural design codes. This work is intended to show that many roofs are actually sufficiently strong given the conservatism in codes, documented allowable strengths, roof structure system effects, and beam composite action produced by joist-sheathing interaction. This report provides results from a testing program to provide actual load carrying capacity of residential rooftops. The results reveal that the actual load carrying capacity of structural members and systems tested are significantly stronger than allowable loads provided by the International Residential Code (IRC 2009) and the national structural code found in Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE 7-10). Engineering analysis of residential rooftops typically ignores the system affects and beam composite action in determining rooftop stresses given a potential PV installation. This extreme conservatism combined with conservatism in codes and published allowable stress values for roof building materials (NDS 2012) lead to the perception that well built homes may not have adequate load bearing capacity to enable a rooftop PV installation. However, based on the test results presented in this report of residential rooftop structural systems, the actual load bearing capacity is several times higher than published values (NDS 2012).

Dwyer, Stephen F.↗

The 2020 photovoltaic technologies roadmap

Over the past decade, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity has grown exponentially, reaching 591 GW in 2019. Rapid progress was driven in large part by improvements in solar cell and module efficiencies, reduction in manufacturing costs and the realization of levelized costs of electricity that are now generally less than other energy sources and approaching similar costs with storage included. Given this success, it is a particularly fitting time to assess the state of the photovoltaics field and the technology milestones that must be achieved to maximize future impact and forward momentum. This roadmap outlines the critical areas of development in all of the major PV conversion technologies, advances needed to enable terawatt-scale PV installation, and cross-cutting topics on reliability, characterization, and applications. Each perspective provides a status update, summarizes the limiting immediate and long-term technical challenges and highlights breakthroughs that are needed to address them. In total, this roadmap is intended to guide researchers, funding agencies and industry in identifying the areas of development that will have the most impact on PV technology in the upcoming years.

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Comparative Analysis and Considerations for PV Interconnection Standards in the United States and China

The main objectives of this report are to evaluate China's photovoltaic (PV) interconnection standards and the U.S. counterparts and to propose recommendations for future revisions to these standards. This report references the 2013 report Comparative Study of Standards for Grid-Connected PV System in China, the U.S. and European Countries, which compares U.S., European, and China's PV grid interconnection standards; reviews various metrics for the characterization of distribution network with PV; and suggests modifications to China's PV interconnection standards and requirements. The recommendations are accompanied by assessments of four high-penetration PV grid interconnection cases in the United States to illustrate solutions implemented to resolve issues encountered at different sites. PV penetration in China and in the United States has significantly increased during the past several years, presenting comparable challenges depending on the conditions of the grid at the point of interconnection; solutions are generally unique to each interconnected PV installation or PV plant.

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Implementing Solar Photovoltaic Projects on Historic Buildings and in Historic Districts

Despite a global recession, the number of photovoltaic (PV) installations in the United States grew 30% from 2008 to 2009. A number of trends point toward continued growth of new PV installations. The efficiency of solar panels is increasing, while installation costs are going down. At the same time, federal, state, and local regulations are requiring that greater amounts of energy must come from renewable sources. Incentives for solar power technology implementation are being created and regulatory barriers removed. Corporations and governments are focusing on solar power to demonstrate leadership in environmental sustainability and resource conservation. Architects and builders are including PV arrays as a way to meet green building standards and property owners are seeking PV as a way to reduce their utility bills, as well as their carbon footprints. This publication focuses on the implementation of PV systems on historic properties. Many private property owners, as well as local, state, and national government entities, are seeking guidance on how best to integrate solar PV installations on historic buildings. Historic preservationists maintain that preserving, reusing, and maintaining historic structures is a key sustainable design strategy while also recognizing the importance of accommodating renewable energy technologies where they are appropriate. In some cases, however, conflicts have arisen over the installation of PV panels on historic properties. Addressing these conflicts and providing guidance regarding solutions and best practices is an important step toward resolving or eliminating barriers. Historic properties and districts in the United States provide tangible connections to the nation's past. Thousands of buildings, sites, districts, structures, and objects have been recognized for their historic and architectural significance. Local, state, and national designations of historic properties provide recognition, protection, and incentives that help to preserve those properties for future generations. At the national level, the National Register of Historic Places includes more than 86,000 listings, which encompass a total of more than 1.6 million historic resources. State registers of historic places also provide recognition and protection for historic sites and districts. Locally, more than 2,400 communities have established historic preservation ordinances. Typically implemented through zoning overlays, these local land use regulations manage changes to hundreds of thousands of historic properties. Over a period of 2 years (2007 and 2008) the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) designated 25 major U.S. cities as Solar America Cities. DOE provided financial and technical assistance to help the cities develop comprehensive approaches to accelerate the adoption of solar energy technologies. The Solar America Cities partnerships represent the foundation of DOE's larger Solar America Communities program. As a part of this program, DOE identified the implementation of solar projects on historic properties and in historic districts as one area to address. A workshop titled 'Implementing Solar Projects on Historic Buildings and in Historic Districts' was held in Denver, Colorado, in June of 2010. Participants included representatives from the solar industry as well as historic preservationists from nonprofit organizations and government agencies at the local, state, and national levels. The workshop provided an opportunity to gain a common understanding of solar technologies and historic preservation procedures and priorities. The workshop participants also discussed some of the challenges involved in locating PV systems on historic properties and identified potential solutions. This publication is based on the discussions that occurred at this workshop and the recommendations that were developed by participants. Ideas expressed by participants in the workshop, and included in this document, do not necessarily reflect the opinion of any government council, agency, or entity.

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Photovoltaics Innovation Roadmap Request for Information Summary

On June 28, 2017, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) released the Photovoltaics (PV) Innovation Roadmap Request for Information (RFI) for public response and comment. The RFI sought feedback from PV stakeholders, including research and commercial communities, about the most important research and development (R&D) pathways to improve PV cell and module technology to reach the SETO’s SunShot 2030 cost targets of $0.03/W for utility PV installations, $0.04/W for commercial scale installations, and $0.05/W for residential PV installations.

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