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Final design proposal: Beta Systems-El Toro. A proposal in response to a commercial air transportation study

El Toro is a remotely piloted airplane designed to operate as a commercial aircraft in a fictional 'Aeroworld' where the passengers are ping-pong balls and the distances between cities are on the order of thousands of feet. The present design for El Toro will profitably meet the requirements for operation in Aeroworld with a ticket price comparable the ticket prices of current transportation. The extended range of El Toro allows for numerous flights to be flown before the battery pack needs to be changed. This drastically reduces the operating costs to the airlines, allowing them to charge less for a ticket or else to realize a higher profit margin.

Muenzberg, Steve↗

Writing Competitive Proposals [Slides]

A proposal is a written response to an opportunity offered by a funding organization. Proposals must meet a SOLICITOR’S needs, not YOUR needs. A solicited proposal is a written response to a specific solicitation issued by a sponsor. These solicitations are typically called RFPs, or Requests for Proposals. RFPs are specific in their requirements regarding format and technical content. Scientists at Los Alamos often deal with this type of proposal — Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) proposals are one example. An unsolicited proposal is one submitted to a sponsor who has not issued a specific solicitation. It usually comes about during interactions at meetings or conferences. In some instances, a sponsor may be visiting for another reason when the possibility for an unsolicited proposal becomes available. A pre-proposal is one in which a sponsor wishes to gage competition before having participants prepare a formal, full-length proposal. These types of scenarios imply that the actual proposal could be highly competitive and will usually be by invitation only.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A modified cosmic brane proposal for holographic Renyi entropy

We propose a new formula for computing holographic Renyi entropies in the presence of multiple extremal surfaces. Our proposal is based on computing the wave function in the basis of fixed-area states and assuming a diagonal approximation for the Renyi entropy. For Renyi index n ≥ 1, our proposal agrees with the existing cosmic brane proposal for holographic Renyi entropy. For n < 1, however, our proposal predicts a new phase with leading order (in Newton’s constant G) corrections to the cosmic brane proposal, even far from entanglement phase transitions and when bulk quantum corrections are unimportant. Recast in terms of optimization over fixed-area states, the difference between the two proposals can be understood to come from the order of optimization: for n < 1, the cosmic brane proposal is a minimax prescription whereas our proposal is a maximin prescription. We demonstrate the presence of such leading order corrections using illustrative examples. In particular, our proposal reproduces existing results in the literature for the PSSY model and high-energy eigenstates, providing a universal explanation for previously found leading order corrections to the n < 1 Renyi entropies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Proposed Mars Surveyor Landing Sites in Northern Meridiani Sinus, Southern Elysium Planitia, and Argyre Planitia

Our objective is to propose two landing sites that the Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander and Athena Rover could go to on Mars that should meet the safety requirements of the spacecraft landing system and optimize surface operations (chiefly driven by power and communications requirements). An additional site within Argyre Planitia, initially proposed by Parker to the Mars Surveyor Landing Site program, is also proposed for potential consideration for post-2001 missions to Mars, as it is well outside the current latitude limits for the Athena Rover. All three sites are designed to be situated as close to a diversity of geologic units within a few kilometers of the landing site so that diversity can be placed in a geologic context. This objective is very different from the Mars Pathfinder requirement to land at a site with a maximum chance for containing a diversity of rocks within a few tens of meters of the lander. That requirement was driven by the Sojourner mobility limit of a few tens of meters. It can be argued that the Athena project, with its much larger mobility capability, might actually want to avoid such a site, because placing collected samples in geologic context would be difficult. While it has been argued, both before and after the Mars Pathfinder landing, that the provenance for local blocks may be determined by orbiter spectra, primarily from the MGS TES instrument, our ability to do so has yet to be demonstrated. Indeed, several months after conclusion of the Pathfinder mission, we have yet to reach a consensus on the composition of local materials. Our primary data set for selecting a landing site within the latitude and elevation constraints of the 2001 mission is the Viking Orbiter image archive. The site must be selected to place the landing ellipse so as to avoid obvious hazards, such as steep slopes, large or numerous craters, or abundant large knobs. For this purpose, we chose a resolution limit of better than 50 m/pixel. This necessarily excludes from the present study images from current and future orbiter spacecraft, until such data does become readily available. Within each proposed region, it may be possible to identify additional sites once these data become available. Second, the fine-component thermal inertia data, should be greater than about 5 or 6 cgs Units (10(exp -3) cal/sq cm s(exp -0.5)/K). Low thermal inertias imply dusty environments, which could pose a mobility hazard. Similarly, the albedo of the site should not be particularly high, which would also suggest dusty surfaces. Low albedos are preferred, as they often coincide with low Viking red:violet ratios and indicate less dusty surfaces. Next, the Modeled Block Abundance should also not be too high or too low. Based on the Viking Lander and Mars Pathfinder experiences, percentages of blocks should be on the order of 5-25%. Too many blocks could pose a hazard to the landing and mobility. Too few blocks could also indicate a dusty surface. Primary Landing Site: Northern Meridiani Sinus (Proposed by T. J. Parker and K., S. Edgett) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 0-3 N, 350-2 W. *Elevation (Viking): about0.5-1.5 Ian. (2) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbits 709A and 410B). Possible stereo coverage in region where two orbits overlap (probably small parallax angle, as these orbits are not listed in NASA Contractor Report 3501) (3) Albedo: about .18 -.26 (4) Block Abundance: 5-26% (5)Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: 5-9 cgs units This region consists of bright deposits similar to those described by Edgett et al, that also lie within a prominent dark albedo region. These deposits are flat-lying, to such a degree that they ramp against topography rather than draping over it. This led Edgett and Parker to suggest that they may be subaqueous sediments, possibly lacustrine or marine evaporites, laid down sometime from the late Noachian to middle Hesperian (age determination pending crater counts). A contact between this material and elevated, dissected highlands to the south was identified , and is described by Edgett et al. Our desire in proposing this landing site is to sample the edge of this deposit where it has been exposed through etching, presumably eolian deflation (the deposit, though in the highlands, is itself only lightly to moderately cratered). This should enable access to in situ stratigraphy. The actual landing site will be selected where slopes are not expected to be steep, such that the rover itself should be able to traverse them and sample layered materials on the way, either up or down the slope. Perhaps due to uncertainties at this time as to the friability or meter-scale roughness of the deposit, it might make sense to place the landing ellipse on the exhumed highland surface adjacent to the deflated margin of the deposit and plan on driving to the deposit rather than landing on it and driving downslope. This should also enable imaging the margin for evidence of layering should it prove too difficult to climb. A target ellipse on the highland surface should also allow Athena access to ancient Noachian highland materials, particularly if placed near crater ejecta or an inlier of knobby material. Secondary Landing Site: Southern Elysium Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 1.5-3.5 S, 195-198 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): -1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbit 725). Possible stereo coverage between images from beginning and end of orbit that overlap (probably small parallax angle) (4) Albedo: about .27-.28 (5) Block Abundance: 4-7% (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: about 3 cgs units This region consists of eroded knobby material, probably of Noachian age, though much of the crater population has been destroyed, that is onlapped at a sharp contact by an extensive plains unit in southern Elysium Planitia that is Amazonian in age. The plains materials have been attributed to unusually low-viscosity flood lavas from fissures south of the Elysium volcanic rise, or to lacustrine materials associated with a large, Amazonian lake at the source of Marte Vallis. Parker and Schenk presented evidence in support of the latter interpretation, though they attributed the putative shore morphology to an embayment of a northern plains ocean into the southern Elysium region. Detailed examination of the margin of the deposit, showing erosion, not simply burial, of small crater rims and fluidized ejecta blankets, also points to lacustrine or marine sedimentation rather than volcanic plains burial. The plains surface exhibits a "crusty" appearance that many researchers have attributed to pressure ridges in lava flows. In a lacustrine context, they also resemble pressure ridges in desiccated evaporite deposits and salt-rimmed pools (now dry) similar in scale and morphology to spectacular, hundred meter-scale pool rims in alkaline Lake Natron, East African Rift. The eroded highland margin surface adjacent to these plains appears to be fairly smooth, even at 15 m/pixel. Isolated knob inliers are scattered from a few kilometers to several tens of "kilometers apart. Heights of the knobs have not been measured yet but, based on experience with similar features in the Pathfinder landing ellipse, are probably typically on the order of several tens of meters high and smaller, though some of the largest knobs in the region are probably up to a few hundred meters high. Two craters larger than a kilometer in diameter, with fluidized deposits, lie nearby the proposed landing site. Very high-resolution images from MOC should help to determine whether a landing site navigable by the Athena rover could be placed in this region. The space between knobs and craters is large enough to enable placement of a target landing ellipse between them but still provide access to one or more of them and to the margin of the Elysium plains material. Post-2001 Mars Surveyor Landing Site: Argyre Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 55-56 S, 41-43 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): 1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 40 m/pixel images (orbits 567B, 568B, and 569B). Excellent stereo coverage with large parallax angles over the entire landing site region, and much of central and southern Argyre. (4) Albedo: about .23-.24 (5) Block Abundance: No data (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: No data The floors of both the Argyre and Hellas basins contain etched layered materials that are probably thick accumulations of channel or lacustrine sediments. The deposits in Hellas are much more eroded than those in Argyre, and Hellas lacks a channel outlet. Argyre is unique in that Uzboi Vallis flowed out of the basin, requiring overflow of a standing body of water within Argyre. This makes it the largest impact basin on Mars with channels both draining into it and flowing out from it. Hellas' channels may be catastrophic flood channels, whereas Argyre was fed by modest-scale valley networks, though the outlet at Uzboi Vallis was a catastrophic flood Highland craters and basins of this kind should be high-priority landing targets for missions intended to focus on the search for either prebiotic organic materials or even simple fossil microorganisms. Basins with internally-draining valley networks should be preferred over flood channels, as they could have provided the long-term influx of water favorable to the origin of life. (Catastrophic floods are not conducive to fossil preservation, due to their very short durations and high transportation energies). They also afford an opportunity to study the evolution of the planet's climate and volatiles during the period of time between the late Noachian and early Hesperian, when a drastic change from a proposed early warm, wet climate to one more closely resembling the modern environment is thought to have occurred. Large basin

Parker, T. J.↗

Automated Assignment of Proposals to Reviewers

A computer program automates the process of selecting unbiased peer reviewers of research proposals submitted to NASA. Heretofore, such selection has been performed by manual searching of two large databases subject to a set of assignment rules. One database lists proposals and proposers; the other database lists potential reviewers. The manual search takes an average of several weeks per proposal. In contrast, the present software can perform the selection in seconds. The program begins by selecting one entry from each database, then applying the assignment rules to this pair of entries. If and only if all the assignment rules are satisfied, the chosen reviewer is assigned to the chosen proposal. The assignment rules enforced by the program are (1) a maximum allowable number of proposals assigned to a single reviewer; (2) a maximum allowable number of reviewers assigned to a single proposal; (3) if the proposing team includes a member affiliated with an industry, then the reviewer must not be affiliated with any industry; and (4) the reviewer must not be a member of the proposing team or affiliated with the same institution as that of a member of the proposing team.

Kantak, Anil↗

The proposal entry processor: Telescience applications for Hubble Space Telescope science operations

The Proposal Entry Processor (PEP) System supports the submission, entry, technical evaluation review, selection and implementation of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observing proposals. The PEP system is described concentrating on features which illustrate principles of telescience as applied to the HST. These principles are applicable to other observatories, both space and ground based. The PEP proposal forms allow a scientist to specify scientific objectives without becoming needlessly involved in implementation details. The Remote Proposal Submission System (RPSS) allows proposers to submit proposals electronically via Telenet, SPAN, and other networks. The RPSS performs syntax and sematic checks on proposals. The PEP uses a fourth generation database system to store proposal information and to allow general queries and reports. The Transformation subsystem uses an expert system written in OPS5 to cast a scientific description of an observing program into parameters used by the planning and scheduling system. The TACOS system is a natural language database which supports the proposal selection process. Technical evaluations for resource usage and duplicate science are performed using rulebased systems.

Jackson, Robert↗

Managing the Perception of Advanced Technology Risks in Mission Proposals

Through my work in the project proposal office I became interested in how technology advancement efforts affect competitive mission proposals. Technology development allows for new instruments and functionality. However, including technology advancement in a mission proposal often increases perceived risk. Risk mitigation has a major impact on the overall evaluation of the proposal and whether the mission is selected. In order to evaluate the different approaches proposals took I compared the proposals claims of heritage and technology advancement to the sponsor feedback provided in the NASA debriefs. I examined a set of Discovery 2010 Mission proposals to draw patterns in how they were evaluated and come up with a set of recommendations for future mission proposals in how they should approach technology advancement to reduce the perceived risk.

proposals↗

Reforming EIA systems: A critical review of proposals in Brazil

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) systems are under pressure in many countries, driven by a call for efficiency and streamlining. Such a phenomenon is particularly clear in Brazil, where, in the past few years, a number of influential associations put forward documents proposing significant changes to environmental licensing and impact assessment regulations. So far, there is no publicly available information about any initiative towards scrutinizing those proposals. The objective of this study was to critically review the merits and drawbacks of the changes proposed in those documents. The analysis triangulated content analysis, focus group and online survey data. The focus group included ten seasoned Brazilian EIA specialists; the survey, based on Likert-scale and open-ended questions, resulted in 322 valid responses from EIA professionals. Results show that the proposals generally agree that the current EIA system, while playing a key role in mitigating impacts and enhancing project design, needs many changes. Nonetheless, the proposals neither offered solutions to overcome political, technical and budget barriers, nor established a sense of priority of the most urgent issues. Findings from the focus group and the survey signaled that a number of proposed actions might face public outcry, and that those changes that do not depend on legislative action are more likely to be implementable. Previous studies about EIA reform focused mostly on the context of developed countries after changes had taken place. This study, while addressing the perspective of a large developing country in a “before-reform” stage, shows that capacity-building is a key requirement in EIA reform. - Highlights: • Brazil's EIA system is under strong pressure for change. • Findings corroborate ineffectiveness in current system. • There are tensions as to the best approaches to overcome problems. • Exact effects of proposals are uncertain. • Low institutional capacity can play strong role in driving EIA reform.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Noctis Landing: A Proposed Landing Site/Exploration Zone for Human Missions to the Surface of Mars

The proposed Noctis Landing Site/Exploration Zone (LS/EZ) is shown in Figure 1. Our preliminary study suggests that the proposed site meets all key Science and Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) requirements. The site is of significant interest, as the EZ not only offers a large number and wide range of regions of interest (ROIs) for short-term exploration, it is also located strategically at the crossroads between Tharsis and Valles Marineris, which are key for long-term exploration. The proposed site contains Regions of Interest (ROIs) that meet the following Science requirements: -­‐ Access to (1) deposits with a high preservation potential for evidence of past habitability and fossil biosignatures and (2) sites that are promising for present habitability. The site presents a wide variety of ROIs qith likely aqueous features and deposits, including sinous channels and valleys, slope gullies, lobate debris aprons, impact craters with lobate ejecta flows, and "bathtub ring" deposits. Neutron spectrometry also suggests hydrogen is present within the topmost 0.3 m or so of 4 to 10 wt% WEH (Water Equivalent Hydrogen). -­‐ Noachian and/or Hesperian rocks in a stratigraphic context that have a high likelihood of containing trapped atmospheric gases. Collapsed canyon rim material with preserved stratigraphy is abundantly present and accessible. -­‐ Exposures of at least two crustal units that have regional or global extents, that are suitable for radiometric dating, and that have relative ages that sample a significant range of martian geological time. Canyons floors in Ius Chasma, Tithonium Chasma, and plateau tops on Tharsis and in Sinai Planum offer access to distinct crustal units of regional extent. -­‐ Access to outcrops with linked morphological and/or geochemical signatures indicative of aqueous or groundwater/ mineral interactions. Iron and sulfur-bearing deposits on canyon floors in Noctis Labyrinthus, and in Ius Chasma (IC) and Tithonium Chasma (TC) offer many such outcrop options. -­‐ Identifiable stratigraphic contacts and cross-cutting relationships from which relative ages can be determined. In place and collapsed canyon walls in NL, TC, and IC offer such opportunities. -­‐ Other types of ROIs include access points to surrounding plateau top areas for longer term regional exploration. A key attribute of the proposed Noctic Landing site is its strategic location to allow the shortest possible surface excusions to Tharsis and Valles Marineris (VM). VM is the feature and region on Mars that exposes the longest record of Mars' geology and evolution through time. Tharsis is the region of Mars that has experienced the longest and most extensive volcanic history, and might still be volcanically active. Some of the youngest lava flows on Mars have been identified on the western flanks of the Tharsis Bulge, i.e., within driving range of future longrange (500 - 1000 km) pressurized rover traverses. The proposed site also contains ROIs that offer the following Resources (incl. Civil Engineering) characteristics: -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to (1) be used as feedstock for water-generating in situ resource utilization (ISRU) processes and (2) yield significant quantities (greater than 100 MT) of water. The raw material is likely in the form of hydrated minerals, and possibly ice/regolith mix. The top of the raw material deposit is at the surface. -­‐ Access to a region where infrastructure can be emplaced or constructed. This region is less than 5 km from the LS and contains flat, stable terrain. The region exhibits evidence for an abundant source of loose regolith. Several deep pits in the area combined with the availability of sand suggests that some natural terrain features can be adapted for construction purposes. -­‐ Access to raw material that exhibits the potential to be used as metal feedstock for ISRU and construction purposes. Iron and sulfur-rich mineral surface deposits have been identified in CRISM data in many locations in this area. Noctis Landing is the lowest-altitude location on Mars that straddles both the Tharsis region (above average geothermal gradients) and Valles Marineris (minimal crustal thickness from surface (valley floor) to a subsurface liquid water table. Noctis Landing has the potential for being an ideal site for eventual deep drilling on Mars to access deep subsurface liquid water and potentially encountering extant life. Available data remains insufficient to fully qualify the Noctis Landing site. Additional remote sensing data (visible, Near and Mid-IR, and radar) and surface reconnaissance via a high-mobility robotic rover are recommended. In particular, it will be important to assess the trafficability of the site, and its potential for yielding water and metals as a resource. Access to plateau tops from the Noctis Landing site on the canyon floor should be demonstrated. Future exploration of the site would also be enhanced significantly by the availability of robotic (tele-operatable) surveying and sample-collecting drones. Testing of the use of such collaborative science and exploration technologies should be conducted at terrestrial sites such as the Haughton-Mars Project site on Devon Island, High Arctic, among others. Note: Noctis Landing is not an official Mars nomenclature name for this location. Because the area of the proposed LS/EZ had no name, and because it is close to Noctis Labyrinthus to the West while being distinct from it, the provisional name Noctis Landing is proposed. Noctis means night in Latin.

Lee, Pascal↗

Hybrid Power Plants: Status of Operating and Proposed Plants, 2023 Edition [Slides]

Improving battery technology and the growth of variable renewable generation are driving a surge of interest in “hybrid” power plants that combine, for example, wind or solar generating capacity with co-located batteries. While most of the current interest involves pairing photovoltaic (PV) plants with batteries, other types of hybrid or co-located plants with wide-ranging configurations have been part of the U.S. electricity mix for decades. This annually updated briefing tracks and maps existing hybrid or co-located plants across the United States while also synthesizing data from power purchase agreements (PPAs) and generation interconnection queues to shed light on near- and long-term development pipelines. The scope includes “co-located hybrids” that pair two or more resources (e.g., multiple types of generation and/or generation with storage) that are operated largely independently behind a single point of interconnection, and “full hybrids” that also feature coordinated operations of the co-located resources. The focus is on plants with one megawatt (MW) or more of capacity; smaller (often behind-the-meter) projects are also increasingly common, but are not included in this data synthesis. Key findings from the latest briefing include: -At the end of 2022, there were 374 hybrid plants (>1 MW) operating across the United States (+25% compared to the end of 2021), totaling nearly 41 GW of generating capacity (+15%) and 5.4 GW/15.2 GWh of energy storage (+69%/+88%). PV+storage plants are by far the most common, dominating in terms of plant number (213), storage capacity (4.0 GW/12.5 GWh), storage:generator capacity ratio (49%), and storage duration (3.1 hours). But there are nearly twenty other hybrid plant configurations as well, including several different fossil hybrid categories (each dominated by the fossil component) as well as wind+storage, wind+PV, wind+PV+storage, geothermal+PV, and others. -Last year was another strong year for PV+storage hybrids in particular: 59 of the 62 hybrids added in 2022 were PV+storage. As of the end of 2022, there was roughly as much storage capacity operating within PV+storage hybrid plants as in standalone storage plants (~4 GW each). In storage energy terms, however, PV+storage edged out standalone storage by ~2 GWh (12.5 GWh vs. 10.4 GWh, respectively). -Interconnection queue data show continued strong developer interest in hybridization. At the close of 2022, there were 51% more hybrid plants—representing 59% more generating capacity—in interconnection queues across the United States than there were at the end of 2021. Solar dominates these proposed plants as well: at the close of 2022, there were 457 GW of solar capacity proposed as a hybrid (representing ~48% of all solar capacity in the queues), most typically pairing PV with battery storage. At the same time, there were 24 GW of wind capacity proposed as a hybrid (representing ~8% of all wind capacity in the queues), again most-often pairing wind with storage. Meanwhile, more than half of all storage in the queues is estimated to be part of a hybrid plant. While many of the plants proposed in the queues will not ultimately reach commercial operations, the depth of interest in hybrid plants—especially PV+storage—is notable, particularly in certain regions. For example, in CAISO, 97% of all solar capacity and 45% of all wind capacity in the queues is proposed as a hybrid. -The report also surveys power purchase agreement (PPA) price data from a sample of operating and proposed PV+storage plants. Though PV+storage PPA prices have fallen over time, “levelized storage adders” have recently increased somewhat to ~$\$ $7000/MW-month, ~$\$ $60/MWh-stored (assuming one full cycle per day), or ~$\$ $15/MWh-PV. Some of the recent price increase could simply reflect a trend towards higher battery:PV capacity ratios over time, which increases costs, all else being equal. The well-publicized impact of inflationary and supply chain pressures on battery prices is no doubt a contributor as well.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Tool for Merging Proposals Into DSN Schedules

A Practical Extraction and Reporting Language (Perl) script called merge7da has been developed to facilitate determination, by a project scheduler in NASA's Deep Space Network, of whether a proposal for use of the DSN could create a conflict with the current DSN schedule. Prior to the development of merge7da, there was no way to quickly identify potential schedule conflicts: it was necessary to submit a proposal and wait a day or two for a response from a DSN scheduling facility. By using merge7da to detect and eliminate potential schedule conflicts before submitting a proposal, a project scheduler saves time and gains assurance that the proposal will probably be accepted. merge7da accepts two input files, one of which contains the current DSN schedule and is in a DSN-standard format called '7da'. The other input file contains the proposal and is in another DSN-standard format called 'C1/C2'. merge7da processes the two input files to produce a merged 7da-format output file that represents the DSN schedule as it would be if the proposal were to be adopted. This 7da output file can be loaded into various DSN scheduling software tools now in use.

Khanampornpan, Teerapat↗

Proposal to Accomplish Phase B Space Shuttle Program

This proposal has been prepared in response to National Aeronautics and Space Administration Request for Proposal No. 10-8423, dated February 20, 1970, and Amendments No.1, 2, 3, & 4 thereto. It is firm for a period of not less than one hundred twenty (120) days from March 30, 1970. The executed certifications requested in Enclosures 5 and 6 of the Request for Proposal are appended at the end of this proposal. Grumman Aerospace Corporation, along with its associates -- the General Electric Company, Eastern Airlines, the Northrop Corporation, and the Aerojet-General Corporation -- are pleased to submit this proposal. This study must prove that technical challenges can be met at a cost commensurate with realistic national funding levels at an early date, (perferably prior to the late 1977 initial operating capability (IOC) indicated in the Statement of Work). We have assembled a team of extremely competent associates. Together, we are fully qualified to study all facets of the proposed Phase B study, and to develop and build the product. We believe we have already made a promising start toward defining the concept of the space shuttle system.

Mead, Lawrence M.↗

Comparisons of Wilks’ and Monte Carlo Methods in Response to the 10CFR50.46(c) Proposed Rulemaking

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing a new rulemaking on emergency core system/loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) performance analysis. In the proposed rulemaking, designated as 10CFR50.46(c), the US NRC put forward an equivalent cladding oxidation criterion as a function of cladding pre-transient hydrogen content. The proposed rulemaking imposes more restrictive and burnup-dependent cladding embrittlement criteria; consequently nearly all the fuel rods in a reactor core need to be analyzed under LOCA conditions to demonstrate compliance to the safety limits. New analysis methods are required to provide a thorough characterization of the reactor core in order to identify the locations of the limiting rods as well as to quantify the safety margins under LOCA conditions. With the new analysis method presented in this work, the limiting transient case and the limiting rods can be easily identified to quantify the safety margins in response to the proposed new rulemaking. In this work, the best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis capability for large break LOCA with the new cladding embrittlement criteria using the RELAP5-3D code is established and demonstrated with a reduced set of uncertainty parameters. Both the direct Monte Carlo method and the Wilks’ nonparametric statistical method can be used to perform uncertainty quantification. Wilks’ method has become the de-facto industry standard to perform uncertainty quantification in BEPU LOCA analyses. Despite its widespread adoption by the industry, the use of small sample sizes to infer statement of compliance to the existing 10CFR50.46 rule, has been a major cause of unrealized operational margin in today’s BEPU methods. Moreover the debate on the proper interpretation of the Wilks’ theorem in the context of safety analyses is not fully resolved yet, even more than two decades after its introduction in the frame of safety analyses in the nuclear industry. This represents both a regulatory and application risk in rolling out new methods. With the 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking, the deficiencies of the Wilks’ approach are further exacerbated. The direct Monte Carlo approach offers a robust alternative to perform uncertainty quantification within the context of BEPU analyses. In this work, the Monte Carlo method is compared with the Wilks’ method in response to the NRC 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking.

10CFR50.46(c)↗

A new proposal for a high-performance 4-channel demultiplexer based on 2D photonic crystal using three cascaded ring resonators for applications in advanced optical systems

In this paper, a high-performance 4-channel demultiplexer (DEMUX) based on 2D photonic crystal using three cascaded ring resonators is proposed. The proposed DEMUX is composed of square lattice of silicon dielectric rods with a refractive index of 3.46 suspended in air. For the proposed device, the lattice constant a = 590 nm and the filling factor r/a = 0.2. In this study, the plane wave expansion and finite-difference time-domain methods are used respectively to characterize the photonic band gap and to investigate the optical behaviour of the structure. It is demonstrated that by choosing appropriate values for the radius of the inner rods, scattering rods, coupling rods and the coupling length between the bus and the drop waveguides, the desired wavelengths can effectively be separated. The resonant wavelengths of the proposed DEMUX are 1528.7 nm, 1535.3 nm, 1531 nm, and 1533 nm. The mean quality factor, spectral bandwidth and the transmission efficiency of our device are computed to be respectively 7358.5, 0.217 nm and 99.25%. The proposed DEMUX has a mean channel spacing, minimum and maximum values of crosstalk of about 2.2 nm, − 46.68 dB and − 9.79 dB, respectively. Furthermore, the footprint of the device is 294.4 μm{sup 2}, which is suitable for photonic integrated circuits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The ecological impact assessment of a proposed road development (the Slovak approach)

The construction of roads is one of the most widespread forms of natural landscape modification. Over the last 20 years, dozens of road constructions have been assessed in Slovakia, which makes it possible to talk about methodological positives and negatives. A special feature of Slovakia is that many planned or renovated roads are located in protected areas or are in contact with them (including Natura 2000 sites). Therefore, it is important to understand the scope of the roads' ecological impacts and find ways for their appropriate evaluation and incorporation into the Environmental Impact Assessment process. For this reason, the Ecological Impact Assessment methodology can be used as a basis for our research, which consists of three stages. In the first stage (scoping), a buffer circumventing the proposed road is created to determine the area for impact prediction and evaluation. Subsequently, the landscape structure and baseline landscape conditions are discussed, a map of current landscape structure is created and the current ecological status of the affected area is calculated. In the second stage (the evaluation of ecological resources), important ecological parts of the landscape are delineated. This step is based on the importance of previous information and its vulnerability, and leads to the mapping of the road ecological impact zone. In the third stage (impact assessment), important ecological parts are spatially correlated with the proposed road construction. Finally, the significance of ecological impacts of the activity is evaluated by applying specific criteria (duration, reversibility, magnitude, size and road ecological impact zone significance). A scale is proposed for each criterion to evaluate the total significance of impacts. In this way, detailed significant ecological impacts can be found which will help lead to proposed correct mitigation measures and a post-project analysis. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a methodology for the EcIA of road construction. • It tries to understand the spatial structure and configuration of landscape elements. • The most important ecological parts within the territory are identified. • The total significance of ecological receptors is evaluated by applying criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summary of Technical Peer Review on the Risk Assessment Framework proposed in Report INL/RPT-22-68656 for Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems

This report summarizes the peer review activities initiated by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2023 for the evaluation and improvement of the methodology developed under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the risk impact of plant modernization, considering the introduction of high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. The R&D efforts of this project from FY 2019 through FY 2022 were focused on methodology improvement and demonstration of the proposed framework for the risk assessment and design optimization of safety-critical DI&C systems. Collaborations with the nuclear industry have been initiated to support the reliability and risk assessment of their DI&C systems by using the proposed framework. In FY 2023, the framework has reached to a point for a technical peer review and obtain stakeholder feedback. This peer review activity includes coordination of the reviews performed by a group of industry stakeholders, documentation of the peer review suggestions, providing resolutions and responses to the peer review comments. The objective of this technical peer review is to obtain representative feedback on the proposed framework to improve the technical qualities of its methodology and readiness for deployment to the industry. Feedback may identify potential areas for improvement and further development. The Subject Matter experts were invited to review the latest project report documenting the methodology developed in the project and provide evaluations of the technical qualities of the proposed framework and relevant methods. The reviewed project report is “An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology and Demonstration” INL/RPT-22-68656 (short as “INL/RPT-22-68656” in this report). This peer review report documents the technical questions provided for technical peer review and introduces the technical peer reviewers from the stakeholders including nuclear utilities, regulators, and universities. Comments from technical peer reviewers and the resolutions and responses to these comments are outlined. Insights and lessons learned from the technical peer review are summarized in conclusions and future work. The primary audience of this report are DI&C designers, engineers, and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) practitioners. This includes stakeholders, such as the nuclear utilities and regulators who consider the deployment and upgrade of DI&C systems, DI&C software developers and reviewers, and cybersecurity specialists.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗