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NASA NTRS2006

Possible Effects of Climate Warming on Selected Populations of Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic

Polar bears are dependent on sea ice for survival. Climate warming in the Arctic has caused significant declines in coverage and thickness of sea ice in the polar basin and progressively earlier breakup in some areas. In four populations of polar bears in the eastern Canadian Arctic (including Western Hudson Bay), Inuit hunters report more bears near settlements during the open water period in recent years. These observations have been interpreted as evidence of increasing population size, resulting in increases in hunting quotas. However, long-term data on the population size and condition of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, and population and harvest data from Baffin Bay, make it clear that those two populations at least are declining, not increasing. While the details vary in different arctic regions, analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery, beginning in the late 1970s, indicates that the sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open water season. Thus, at least part of the explanation for the appearance of more bears in coastal communities is likely that they are searching for alternative food sources because their stored body fat depots are being exhausted. We hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the IPCC, then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be stressed and are likely to decline in numbers, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, there will likely also be continuing, possibly increasing, numbers of problem interactions between bears and humans as the bears seek alternate food sources. Taken together, the data reported in this paper suggest that a precautionary approach be taken to the harvesting of polar bears and that the potential effects of climate warming be incorporated into planning for the management and conservation of this species throughout the Arctic.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

Barker, Edwin S.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

Xu, Y. -l↗
NASA NTRS2006

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗
NASA NTRS1999

Environmental Conditions and Threatened and Endangered Species Populations near the Titan, Atlas, and Delta Launch Complexes, Cape Canaveral Air Station

Launches of Delta, Atlas, and Titan rockets from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) have potential environmental effects. These could occur from direct impacts of launches or indirectly from habitat alterations. This report summarizes a three-year study (1 995-1 998) characterizing the environment, with particular attention to threatened and endangered species, near Delta, Atlas, and Titan launch facilities. Cape Canaveral has been modified by Air Force development and by 50 years of fire suppression. The dominant vegetation type around the Delta and Atlas launch complexes is coastal oak hammock forest. Oak scrub is the predominant upland vegetation type near the Titan launch complexes. Compositionally, these are coastal scrub communities that has been unburned for > 40 years and have developed into closed canopy, low-stature forests. Herbaceous vegetation around active and inactive facilities, coastal strand and dune vegetation near the Atlantic Ocean, and exotic vegetation in disturbed areas are common. Marsh and estuarine vegetation is most common west of the Titan complexes. Launch effects to vegetation include scorch, acid, and particulate deposition. Discernable, cumulative effects are limited to small areas near the launch complexes. Water quality samples were collected at the Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes in September 1995 (wet season) and January 1996 (dry season). Samples were analyzed for heavy metals, chloride, total organic carbon, calcium, iron, magnesium, sodium, total alkalinity, pH, and conductivity. Differences between fresh, brackish, and saline surface waters were evident. The natural buffering capacity of the environment surrounding the CCAS launch complexes is adequate for neutralizing acid deposition in rainfall and launch deposition. Populations of the Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a Federally-listed, threatened species, reside near the launch complexes. Thirty-seven to forty-one scrub-jay territories were located at Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes between 1995 and 1997. No direct impacts to scrub-jays were observed as a result of normal launches. The explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997 caused direct impacts to the habitat of several scrub-jays families, from fire and debris; however, no scrub-jay mortality was observed. Mortality exceeded reproductive output at all areas over the course of the study. Populations of the southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) populations, a Federally listed, threatened species, reside near all the launch complexes. Hurricane Erin and several other tropical storms impacted several areas at the inception of the study in 1995 causing coastal habitat alterations as a result of salt-water intrusion. Both the habitat and the beach mice populations recovered during the course of the study. No direct impacts to southeastern beach mice were observed as a result of normal launch operations. Direct impacts were observed to the habitat as a result of the explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997. This alteration of the habitat resulted in a shift in use with the mice moving on to the newly burned part of the site. Waterbirds use wetlands and aquatic systems near the launch complexes. Species include the Federally-listed, endangered Wood Stork (Mycferia americana) and several state-listed species of special concern including the Snowy Egret (Egretfa thula fhula), Reddish Egret (Egreffa rufescens rufescens), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), Roseate Spoonbill (Ajaia ajaja), Tricolored Heron (Egreffa tricolor ruficolis), and Little Blue Heron (Egreffa caerulea). No impacts to these populations resulting from any launch operations were observed. Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) also occur around the launch complexes. Most of those observed appeared to be in good condition; however, upper respiratory tract disease is known to occur in the population. Cape Canaveral Air Station, including areas near active launch colexes, remains important habitat for a variety of native plants and animals including threatened and endangered species. Direct negative effects of current launch systems appear limited. Additional monitoring of these populations and habitats is required to determine if subtle, long-term changes are occurring, to determine if new launch systems and facilities cause other effects, and to determine the effects of habitat restoration and management.

Oddy, Donna M.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Oblique Instability of Quasi-Parallel Whistler Waves in the Presence of Cold and Warm Electron Populations

Whistler waves propagating nearly parallel to the ambient magnetic field experience a nonlinear instability due to transverse currents when the background plasma has a population of sufficiently low energy electrons. Intriguingly, this nonlinear process may generate oblique electrostatic waves, including whistlers near the resonance cone with properties resembling oblique chorus waves in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Focusing on the generation of oblique whistlers, earlier analysis of the instability is extended here to the case where low-energy background plasma consists of both a “cold” population with energy of a few eV and a “warm” electron component with energy of the order of 100 eV. This is motivated by spacecraft observations in the Earth’s magnetosphere where oblique chorus waves were shown to interact resonantly with the warm electrons. The main new results are: 1) the instability producing oblique electrostatic waves is sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution at low energies. In the whistler range of frequencies, two distinct peaks in the growth rate are typically present for the model considered: a peak associated with the warm electron population at relatively low wavenumbers and a peak associated with the cold electron population at relatively high wavenumbers; 2) overall, the instability producing oblique whistler waves near the resonance cone persists (with a reduced growth rate) even in the cases where the temperature of the cold population is relatively high, including cases where cold population is absent and only the warm population is included; 3) particle-in-cell simulations show that the instability leads to heating of the background plasma and formation of characteristic plateau and beam features in the parallel electron distribution function in the range of energies resonant with the instability. The plateau/beam features have been previously detected in spacecraft observations of oblique chorus waves. However, they have been attributed to external sources and have been proposed to be the mechanism generating oblique chorus. In the present scenario, the causality link is reversed and the instability generating oblique whistler waves is shown to be a possible mechanism for formation of the plateau and beam features.

Vadim Roytershteyn↗
NASA NTRS1981

Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

Newman, W. I.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comprehensive stellar population models and the disentanglement of age and metallicity effects

The construction of detailed models for intermediate and old stellar populations is described. Input parameters include metallicity (-2 less than (Fe/H) less than 0.5), single-burst age (between 1.5 and 17 Gyr), and initial mass function (IMF) exponent. Quantities output include broadband magnitudes, spectral energy distributions, surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes, and a suite of 21 absorption feature indices. The models are checked against a wide variety of available observations. Examinations of model output yield the following conclusions. (1) If the percentage change delta age/delta Z approximately equals 3/2 for two populations, they will appear almost identical in most indices. A few indices break this degeneracy by being either more abundance sensitive (Fe4668, Fe5015, Fe5709, and Fe5782) or more age sensitive (G4300, H beta, and presumably higher order Balmer lines) than usual. (2) Present uncertainties in stellar evolution are of the same magnitude as the effects of IMF and Y in the indices studied. (3) Changes in abundance ratios (like (Mg/Fe)) are predicted to be readily apparent in the spectra of old stellar populations. (4) The I-band flux of a stellar population is predicted to be nearly independent of metallicity and only modestly sensitive to age. The I band is therefore recommended for standard candle work or studies of M/L in galaxies. Other conclusions stem from this work. (1) Intercomparison of models and observations of two TiO indices seem to indicate variation of the (V/Ti) ratio among galaxies, but it is not clear how this observation ties into the standard picture of chemical enrichment. (2) Current estimates of (Fe/H) for the most metal-rich globulars that are based on integrated indices are probably slightly too high. (3) Colors of population models from different authors exhibit a substantial range. At solar metallicity and 13 Gyr, this range corresponds to an age error of roughly +/- 7 Gyr. Model colors from different authors applied in a differential sense have smaller uncertainties. (4) In the present models the dominant error for colors is probably the transformation from stellar atmospheric parameters to stellar colors. (5) Stellar B - V is difficult to model, and current spreads among different authors can reach 0.2 mag. (6) If known defects in the stellar flux library are corrected, the population model colors of this work in passbands redder than U would be accurate to roughly 0.03 mag in an absolute sense. These corrections are not made in the tables of model output.

Worthey, Guy↗
NASA NTRS2002

SHEEP: The Search for the High Energy Extragalactic Population

We present the SHEEP survey for serendipitously-detected hard X-ray sources in ASCA GIS images. In a survey area of approx. 40 sq deg, 69 sources were detected in the 5-10 keV band to a limiting flux of approx. 10(exp -13) erg/sq cm/s. The number counts agree with those obtained by the similar BeppoSAX HELLAS survey, and both are in close agreement with ASCA and BeppoSAX 2-10 keV surveys. Spectral analysis of the SHEEP sample reveals that the 2-10 and 5-10 keV surveys do not sample the same populations, however, as we find considerably harder spectra, with an average Gamma approx. 1.0 assuming no absorption. The implication is that the agreement in the number counts is coincidental, with the 5-10 keV surveys gaining approximately as many hard sources as they lose soft ones, when compared to the 2-10 keV surveys. This is hard to reconcile with standard AGN "population synthesis" models for the X-ray background, which posit the existence of a large population of absorbed sources. We find no evidence of the population hardening at faint fluxes, with the exception that the few very brightest objects are anomalously soft. 53 of the SHEEP sources have been covered by ROSAT in the pointed phase. Of these 32 were detected. An additional 3 were detected in the RASS. As expected the sources detected with ROSAT are systematically softer than those detected with ASCA alone, and of the sample as a whole. Although they represent a biased subsample, the ROSAT positions allow relatively secure catalog identifications to be made. We find associations with a wide variety of AGN and a few clusters and groups. At least two X-ray sources identified with high-z QSOs present very hard X-ray spectra indicative of absorption, despite the presence of broad optical lines. A possible explanation for this is that we are seeing relatively dust-free "warm absorbers" in high luminosity/redshift objects. Our analysis defines a new, hard X-ray selected sample of objects - mostly active galactic nuclei - which is less prone to bias due to obscuration than previous optical or soft X-ray samples. They are therefore more representative of the population of AGN in the universe in general, and the SHEEP survey should produce bright examples of the sources that make up the hard X-ray background, the majority of which has recently been resolved by Chandra. This should help elucidate the nature of the new populations.

Nandra, K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Size distribution of retrovirally marked lineages matches prediction from population measurements of cell cycle behavior

Mechanisms that regulate neuron production in the developing mouse neocortex were examined by using a retroviral lineage marking method to determine the sizes of the lineages remaining in the proliferating population of the ventricular zone during the period of neuron production. The distribution of clade sizes obtained experimentally in four different injection-survival paradigms (E11-E13, E11-E14, E11-E15, and E12-E15) from a total of over 500 labeled lineages was compared with that obtained from three models in which the average behavior of the proliferating population [i.e., the proportion of cells remaining in the proliferative population (P) vs. that exiting the proliferative population (Q)] was quantitatively related to lineage size distribution. In model 1, different proportions of asymmetric, symmetric terminal, and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions coexisted during the entire developmental period. In model 2, the developmental period was divided into two epochs: During the first, asymmetric and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions occurred, but, during the second, asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions occurred. In model 3, the shifts in P and Q are accounted for by changes in the proportions of the two types of symmetric cell divisions without the inclusion of any asymmetric cell divisions. The results obtained from the retroviral experiments were well accounted for by model 1 but not by model 2 or 3. These findings demonstrate that: 1) asymmetric and both types of symmetric cell divisions coexist during the entire period of neurogenesis in the mouse, 2) neuron production is regulated in the proliferative population by the independent decisions of the two daughter cells to reenter S phase, and 3) neurons are produced by both asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions. In addition, the findings mean that cell death and/or tangential movements of cells in the proliferative population occur at only a low rate and that there are no proliferating lineages "reserved" to make particular laminae or cell types. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

NASA Discipline Developmental Biology↗
NASA NTRS2008

Population Analysis: Communicating in Context

Providing accommodation to a widely varying user population presents a challenge to engineers and designers. It is often even difficult to quantify who is accommodated and who is not accommodated by designs, especially for equipment with multiple critical anthropometric dimensions. An approach to communicating levels of accommodation referred to as population analysis applies existing human factors techniques in novel ways. This paper discusses the definition of population analysis as well as major applications and case studies. The major applications of population analysis consist of providing accommodation information for multivariate problems and enhancing the value of feedback from human-in-the-loop testing. The results of these analyses range from the provision of specific accommodation percentages of the user population to recommendations of design specifications based on quantitative data. Such feedback is invaluable to designers and results in the design of products that accommodate the intended user population.

Rajulu, Sudhakar↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling of the Orbital Debris Population of RORSAT Sodium-Potassium Droplets

A large population resident in the orbital debris environment is composed of eutectic sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, released during the reactor core ejection of 16 nuclear-powered Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellites (RORSATs) launched in the 1980s by the former Soviet Union. These electrically conducting RORSAT debris objects are spherical in shape, generating highly polarized radar returns. Their diameters are mostly in the centimeter and millimeter size regimes. Since the Space Surveillance Network catalog is limited to objects greater than 5 cm in low Earth orbit, our current knowledge about this special class of orbital debris relies largely on the analysis of Haystack radar data. This paper elaborates the simulation of the RORSAT debris populations in the new NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2010, which replaces ORDEM2000. The estimation of the NaK populations uses the NASA NaK-module as a benchmark. It follows the general statistical approach to developing all other ORDEM2010-required LEO populations (for various types of debris and across a wide range of object sizes). This paper describes, in detail, each major step in the NaK-population derivation, including a specific discussion on the conversion between Haystack-measured radar-cross-sections and object-size distribution for the NaK droplets. Modeling results show that the RORSAT debris population is stable for the time period under study and that Haystack data sets are fairly consistent over the observations of multiple years.

Xu, Y.-L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Orbital Debris Large-Object Baseline Population in ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has created and validated high fidelity populations of the debris environment for the latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0). Though the model includes fluxes of objects 10 um and larger, this paper considers particle fluxes for 1 cm and larger debris objects from low Earth orbit (LEO) through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). These are validated by several reliable radar observations through the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radars. ORDEM 3.0 populations were designed for the purpose of assisting, debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment includes a background derived from the LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris evolutionary model (LEGEND) with a Bayesian rescaling as well as specific events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, and the Soviet/Russian Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium droplet releases. The environment described in this paper is the most realistic orbital debris population larger than 1 cm, to date. We describe derivations of the background population and added specific populations. We present sample validation charts of our 1 cm and larger LEO population against Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.

Krisco, Paula H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Population of Optically Faint GEO Debris

The 6.5-m Magellan telescope 'Walter Baade' at the Las Campanas Observatory in Chile has been used for spot surveys of the GEO orbital regime to study the population of optically faint GEO debris. The goal is to estimate the size of the population of GEO debris at sizes much smaller than can be studied with 1-meter class telescopes. Despite the small size of the field of view of the Magellan instrument (diameter 0.5-degree), a significant population of objects fainter than R = 19th magnitude have been found with angular rates consistent with circular orbits at GEO. We compare the size of this population with the numbers of GEO objects found at brighter magnitudes by smaller telescopes. The observed detections have a wide range in characteristics starting with those appearing as short uniform streaks. But there are a substantial number of detections with variations in brightness, flashers, during the 5-second exposure. The duration of each of these flashes can be extremely brief: sometimes less than half a second. This is characteristic of a rapidly tumbling object with a quite variable projected size times albedo. If the albedo is of the order of 0.2, then the largest projected size of these objects is around 10-cm. The data in this paper was collected over the last several years using Magellan's IMACS camera in f/2 mode. The analysis shows the brightness bins for the observed GEO population as well as the periodicity of the flashers. All objects presented are correlated with the catalog: the focus of the paper will be on the uncorrelated, optically faint, objects. The goal of this project is to better characterize the faint debris population in GEO that access to a 6.5-m optical telescope in a superb site can provide.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2019

Constraining the Metallicities, Ages, Star Formation Histories, and Ionizing Continua of Extragalactic Massive Star Populations

We infer the properties of massive star populations using the far-ultraviolet stellar continua of 61 star-forming galaxies: 42 at low redshift observed with the Hubble Space Telescope and 19 at z ~ 2 from the MegaSaura sample. We fit each stellar continuum with a linear combination of up to 50 single-age and single-metallicity starburst99 models. From these fits, we derive light-weighted ages and metallicities, which agree with stellar wind and photospheric spectral features, and infer the spectral shapes and strengths of the ionizing continua. Inferred light-weighted stellar metallicities span 0.05–1.5 Z(sub ⊙) and are similar to the measured nebular metallicities. We quantify the ionizing continua using the ratio of the ionizing flux at 900 Å to the non-ionizing flux at 1500 Å and demonstrate the evolution of this ratio with stellar age and metallicity using theoretical single-burst models. These single-burst models only match the inferred ionizing continua of half of the sample, while the other half are described by a mixture of stellar ages. Mixed-age populations produce stronger and harder ionizing spectra than continuous star formation histories, but, contrary to previous studies that assume constant star formation, have similar stellar and nebular metallicities. Stellar population age and metallicity affect the far-UV continua in different and distinguishable ways; assuming a constant star formation history diminishes the diagnostic power. Finally, we provide simple prescriptions to determine the ionizing photon production efficiency (ξ(sub ion)) from the stellar population properties. The ξ(sub ion) inferred from the observed star-forming galaxies has a range of log(ξ(sub ion)) = 24.4–25.7 Hz erg(exp −1) that depends on the stellar population age, metallicity, star formation history, and contributions from binary star evolution. These stellar population properties must be observationally determined to accurately determine the number of ionizing photons generated by massive stars.

Chisholm, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AMMPER: Agent-based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation

Exposure of microbial populations to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) in the deep-space radiation environment may lead to intracellular damage that compromises the ability of cells to repair and replicate. While simulation programs of deep-space radiation do exist, they focus primarily on single-cell damage, rather than population-wide effects. In this work, a new application and graphical user interface, Agent-Based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation (AMMPER) is presented, which simulates the effects of proton-based GCR on Saccharomyces cerevisiae population growth. AMMPER consists of a 50x50x50 µm simulation space, analogous to an aqueous culture medium with non-limiting nutrient and pH buffering, in a microwell plate or microfluidic culture card. This model utilizes Relativistic Ion Tracks (RITRACKS) to create detailed track structures of the radiation traversals. AMMPER then calculates the radiation dose present at each cell, and subsequently determines the damage (chromosomal aberrations, oxidative stress, etc.) and resulting loss of cell viability from both primary and secondary radiative effects. Through implementing cell replication, repair, damage, and death, the effect of radiation exposure on the population growth can be determined. With AMMPER, long-duration effects of the deep space environment on entire populations can be determined and used to assess the feasibility of sustaining life in space.

Amrita Singh↗
NASA NTRS1971

Vibrational population distributions in nonequilibrium nozzle expansion flows

Experimental measurements and theoretical calculations of the vibrational population distribution in nonequilibrium nozzle expansion flows of gas mixtures are reported. These studies were directed toward determining whether vibrational energy exchange pumping could lead to laser action on the vibrational bands of a diatomic molecule. Three different types of experiments were conducted. These showed (1) that vibrational energy was preferentially transferred from N2 to CO in supersonic nozzle flows containing these gases; (2) that under some conditions this vibrational energy exchange pumping mechanism created population inversions in the vibrational levels of CO; and (3) that at large expansion ratios the magnitude of these population inversions was sufficient to sustain lasing in the nozzle. A theoretical model was developed to calculate vibrational state population distributions in gas dynamic expansions of a mixture of diatomic gases. Although only isothermal calculations have been completed, these data indicate that population inversions are predicted for conditions similar to those obtained in the nozzle expansion flows.

Watt, W. S.↗