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DOE OSTI2021

Shattered pellet penetration in low and high energy plasmas on DIII-D

Shattered pellet injection (SPI) has been adopted as the baseline disruption mitigation system for ITER, as the radiative payload penetration into DIII-D plasmas from SPI is superior to those using the massive gas injection (MGI) method. Because of the substantial differences in the energy content of ITER plasma and those in present experiments, reliable 3D MHD modeling, benchmarked against present experiments is needed to project to ITER plasmas. In support of these needs, the depth of SPI fragment penetration in DIII-D plasmas was investigated by injecting SPI into two discharges with vastly different energy content and pedestal height. 400 Torr-L pure Ne fragmented pellets at a velocity of about 200 m s−1 were injected into a 0.2 MJ L-mode discharge and a 2 MJ super H-mode discharge. Results show deep penetration of SPI fragments into low-energy plasmas in DIII-D. SPI fragment penetration is reduced as the plasma energy content increases, with some discharges exhibiting penetration that is confined to the outer regions of the plasma. The injected SPI fragments are also spread out over a distance of about 20 cm, which results in some fragments arriving near the end of or after the thermal quench is over.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Project developer options to enhance the value of solar electricity as solar and storage penetrations increase

Increasing the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) reduces the marginal grid value of PV electricity. The declining grid value of PV with higher penetration could limit the technology's economic attractiveness and future demand. Various strategies have been proposed for preserving this value. Using a consistent framework, we analyze the net value (accounting for both cost and grid value) of more than ten strategies in the United States. Here, grid value is estimated from coincident wholesale power market prices and PV generation using observed historical prices or modeled future prices with up to 30% PV penetration. We find that established and emerging strategies designed to shift the timing of standalone PV generation at the expense of total generation—including orienting monofacial PV modules west or bifacial modules vertically—result in minor net-value benefits or penalties. Adding energy storage to such systems magnifies the net-value loss, because configurations that change the timing of PV production become redundant when the energy-shifting capabilities of storage are added. The largest net-value gains come from strategies that maximize generation (solar tracking plus oversized PV arrays) in conjunction with storage, especially at high PV penetrations. PV systems are long-lived assets. Our results suggest that efforts to promote generation-maximizing strategies today may yield increasing net-value benefits as PV and storage deployments continue to accelerate in the United States over the coming decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanism of ion pairing–induced co-ion penetration into the stern layer

In classical electric double layer (EDL) theory, co-ions—ions carrying the same charge as the electrode—are assumed to be excluded from the Stern layer because of electrostatic repulsion. However, ion pairing with adsorbed counterions may enable co-ions to access the EDL, a phenomenon that remains underexplored. Key questions therefore remain unresolved, including how deeply co-ions penetrate, how ion-specific properties govern them, and how ion pairing within the EDL differs from bulk solution. Here, in this study, we employ molecular dynamics simulations combined with well-tempered metadynamics to quantify co-ion penetration and ion-pairing thermodynamics at positively charged Mg-Al layered double hydroxide interfaces (σ = +20.6 μC/cm 2 ) in aqueous chloride electrolytes across 0.005–3 M range. We reveal a concentration-driven crossover: at dilute conditions, counterion–co-ion contact ion pairing (CIP) is thermodynamically unfavorable or only weakly favorable (ΔG CIP = +0.12 kcal/mol for Li + to −0.42 kcal/mol for K + ), leading to co-ion exclusion. As concentration increases (≥0.5 M), enhanced screening reduces surface repulsion and stabilizes CIP thermodynamics (ΔG CIP = −0.89 kcal/mol for Li + to −1.05 kcal/mol for K + at 3 M), enabling monovalent co-ions to penetrate the Stern layer following the hydration hierarchy K + > Na + > Li + , while divalent co-ions (Mg 2+ , Ca 2+ ) remain in the diffuse layer, forming only solvent-separated pairs. Comparison with bulk solution shows interfacial ion pairing is suppressed at low concentrations but converges to bulk-like thermodynamics at high concentrations, indicating surface effects vanish under strong screening. These results establish a quantitative framework linking ion-pairing thermodynamics to co-ion penetration and providing strategies to design electrochemical interfaces.

Co-ion penetration↗

DOE OSTI2026

A mechanistic, multiscale model for predicting Pd penetration in TRISO fuels using BISON

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particles use silicon carbide (SiC) as the primary structural member and barrier against metallic fission product (FP) release. palladiums (PDs), produced by fission in the fuel kernel, can diffuse to and chemically interact with the SiC layer, degrading its structural integrity and ability to contain radioactive FPs. Existing temperature-dependent correlations for predicting Pd penetration rely on experimental data with significant scatter due to varying conditions, potentially complicating ongoing fuel qualification and licensing efforts for advanced reactors that would subject TRISO fuels to operating conditions outside of those examined in the experiments. A mechanistic model of Pd production, transport, and reaction is developed in this work to better understand and predict PD attack of SiC in TRISO particles. molecular dynamicss (MDs) simulations are utilized to calculate the Pd diffusivity in SiC grain bulk and grain boundaries. A mesoscale phase-field diffusion model, informed by the MD diffusivities, is used to develop a reduced order model (ROM) for the effect of SiC microstructure on the Pd penetration rate. The engineering scale BISON model calculates Pd production and transport, utilizing the ROM to predict penetration rates consistent with experimental data. This novel mechanistic ROM captures the effect of temperature, microstructure, and irradiation history on Pd penetration. In conclusion, these new capabilities are expected to support ongoing qualification and licensing efforts associated with near-term TRISO-fueled reactor applications.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved correlations of the fuel/cladding liquid penetration rate with the out-of-pile transient database

Here, utilizing data from the Out-of-Pile Transient Database (OPTD), we developed advanced correlations for the cladding liquid penetration rate in metallic fuels used in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs). Based on the available OPTD data, our research highlights the key role of Pu concentration in influencing the liquid penetration behavior, showing different threshold fuel-cladding interaction temperatures, with burnup playing a substantial role, particularly in fuels with a 19% Pu concentration. The penetration rate exhibits a parabolic, diffusion-limited behavior, thereby facilitating predictions of maximum liquid penetration depth over time. These correlations are significantly more accurate, under a variety of conditions, compared to existing single-parameter models, and enhance our understanding of SFR metallic fuel behavior, promoting safer and more efficient reactor operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Molten Sodium Penetration in NaSICON Electrolytes at 0.1 A cm –2

High-conductivity solid electrolytes, such as the Na superionic conductor, NaSICON, are poised to play an increasingly important role in safe, reliable battery-based energy storage, enabling advanced sodium-based batteries. Coupled demands of increased current density (≥0.1 A cm –2 ) and low-temperature (<200 °C) operation, combined with increased discharge times for long-duration storage (>12 h), challenge the limitations of solid electrolytes. Here, we explore the penetration of molten sodium into NaSICON at high current densities. Previous studies of β"-alumina proposed that Poiseuille pressure-driven cracking (mode I) and recombination of ions and electrons within the solid electrolyte (mode II) are the two main mechanisms for Na penetration, but a comprehensive study of Na penetration in NaSICON is necessary, particularly at high current density. To further understand these modes, this work employs unidirectional galvanostatic testing of Na|NaSICON|Na symmetric cells at 0.1 A cm –2 over 23 h at 110 °C. Further, while galvanostatic testing shows a relatively constant yet increasingly noisy voltage profile, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) reveals a significant decrease in cell impedance correlated with significant sodium penetration, as observed in scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Further SEM analysis of sodium accumulation within NaSICON suggests that mode II failure may be far more prevalent than previously considered. Further, these findings suggest that total (dis)charge density (mAh cm –2 ), as opposed to current density (mA cm –2 ), may be a more critical parameter when examining solid electrolyte failure, highlighting the challenge of achieving long discharge times in batteries using solid electrolytes. Together, these results provide a better understanding of the limitations of NaSICON solid electrolytes under high current and emphasize the need for improved electrode–electrolyte interfaces.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hot-tail electrons’ impact on assimilation and injection penetration of D2 shattered pellet injections

The assimilation and the penetration of injected materials play significant roles in the mitigation efficiency of shattered pellet injection (SPI) as a disruption mitigation system (DMS), hence an accurate description of the fragment ablation rate is desirable. Current mainstream 3D MHD codes modelling SPIs mostly assume instantaneous thermalization between the previously hot ambient electrons and the newly released cold electrons. This could result in underestimation of the ablation rate if the hot electron thermalization time is comparable or even longer than the fragment flying time across flux tubes, putting the validity of these 3D SPI simulations into question. To resolve this doubt, we, in this study, investigate the thermalization dynamics and the overall hot-electron impact. The finite-time collisional thermalization of hot-tail electrons in a rapidly cooling plasma, as well as the so-called ‘self-limiting’ effect are considered. The former effect tends to deplete the colder population within a hot-tail species, while the latter is found to preferentially deplete the higher energy population. The combined result is found to cause an almost self-similar decay of the hot electron distribution function, while its shape does not deviate much from that of Maxwellian distribution and the mean energy does not change much during the thermalization process. Based on this observation, axisymmetric JOREK D2 SPI simulations were carried out with additional hot-tail contribution to evaluate their overall impact onto the injection assimilation and penetration. It is found that the hot-tail effect indeed causes enhanced assimilation and shallower penetration, although the overall effect depends on the exact injection configuration, with the slow injection showing negligible hot-tail effect while the fast single non-shattered pellet case shows drastic hot-tail ablation enhancement. For ITER-like SPI parameters, there is no significant deviation in the total assimilation, but some deviation in the injection penetration is observed for the fast injection velocity cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic Field Penetration Technique to Study High Field Shielding of Multilayered Superconductors

The SIS structure which consists of alternative thin layers of superconductors and insulators on a bulk niobium has been proposed to shield niobium cavity surface from high magnetic field and hence increase the accelerating gradient. The study of the behavior of multilayer super-conductors in an external magnetic field is essential to optimize their SRF performance. In this work we report the development of a simple and efficient technique to measure penetration of magnetic field into bulk, thin film and multilayer superconductors. Experimental setup contains a small superconducting solenoid which can produce a parallel surface magnetic field up to 0.5 T and Hall probes to detect penetrated magnetic field across the superconducting sample. This system was calibrated and used to study the effect of niobium sample thickness on the field of full magnetic flux penetration. We determined the optimum thickness of the niobium substrate to fabricate the multilayer structure for the measurements in our setup. This technique was used to measure penetration fields of Nb₃Sn thin films and Nb₃Sn/Al₂O₃ multi-layers deposited on Al₂O₃ wafers.

Senevirathne, I. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Sensitivity-driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tool for High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources (IBR)

Traditionally, power system generation sources have been composed of synchronous generators, of which the fault current behavior is understood with minimal differences between generation size and types due to the physics of their construction. Present protection schemes and modeling methods are based upon these understood characteristics. Most renewable generation is composed of inverter-based resources (IBR), in which fault current is determined by switching control software and hardware limitations, each of which can vary between manufacturers and even between models of the same manufacturer. The resulting fault current is low in magnitude, low in negative-sequence current, unpredictable phase angles, and is a challenge to model. These characteristics also result in a challenge to traditional protection schemes and fault simulation software. To address several of these concerns, the project has the following goals: 1. Improve IBR models: Improve IBR models used in short circuit (SC) programs to accurately capture the response of IBRs at the bulk power system (BPS) level for fault and protection studies. 2. Develop automation tool: Develop an automation tool that allows engineers to identify protection coordination and sensitivity issues by performing SC and protection coordination studies in a high IBR-penetrated grid by applying variations to the IBR models, faults, contingencies, etc. 3. Develop schemes: Develop new protection mitigation solution schemes that complement the existing protection systems to ensure safe operation of the BPS with higher IBR penetration levels. The project team did not achieve this final goal, as the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped the project early due to changes in DOE funding priorities. The termination notice came at the beginning of the final project phase, while the team was identifying and beginning to investigate protection issues. It should be noted that the team discussed a 100% penetration scenario. However, this scenario would require the use of grid-forming IBR models that are not presently available. Since developing these models requires additional effort, the 100% penetration scenario was not pursued during this project. In the future, developing the methodology and models for the 100% scenario could benefit the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Sepsis: Establishment and Validation of a 72-Hour Swine Model of Penetrating Abdominal Trauma

Background/Objectives: Fecal peritonitis following penetrating abdominal trauma is a serious condition that often results in sepsis and organ failure. The aim of our study was to develop a novel conscious porcine model of sepsis and organ dysfunction caused by multiple penetrating injuries to the small and large intestines. Methods: Twelve female Yorkshire pigs (average weight 50.6 ± 6.5 kg) were divided into two groups: Penetrating Abdominal Trauma (PAT) (n = 8) and Control (n = 4). All surgical procedures were performed under anesthesia with adequate analgesia. In the PAT group, the small and large intestines were punctured, and feces mixed with saline were introduced into the abdominal cavity to induce peritonitis. The Control group received sham surgery with only saline solution. The animals were observed in a conscious state over a period of 72 h, vital parameters were recorded, and blood samples were taken regularly. We adapted a pig-specific SOFA score and developed pig-specific SIRS criteria and NEWS2 score to assess organ function. The model was validated by independent investigators. Results: The survival rate in the PAT group was 75%, with an average survival time of 58.5 h, while all animals in the Control group survived to euthanasia. Monitoring showed pathophysiological changes, such as tachycardia, leucopenia, and thrombocytopenia, indicative of sepsis and organ dysfunction. Blinded investigators independently confirmed the model’s validity. Conclusions: A new swine model of penetrating abdominal trauma and sepsis has been successfully developed that demonstrates significant physiological and immunologic changes comparable to human sepsis. This new model provides a realistic platform for future research into sepsis, its diagnostics, and the evaluation of therapeutic strategies.

General & Internal Medicine↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and Use of a Penetrating Deposition Nozzle for Z-Pinning Additive Manufacturing

Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF) involves depositing material layer-by-layer to create athree-dimensional object. This method often demonstrates high mechanical anisotropy in theprinted structure, leading to a drop in the material strength of the part when comparing structuresalong the deposition plane (X/Y-Axis) versus across layers in the build direction (Z-Axis). Initialefforts to improve anisotropy led to the development of the Z-Pinning process, where continuouspins are deposited across layers in the Z-Axis. Z-pinning has demonstrated significant gains intoughness and inter-layer strength, particularly in fiber-reinforced materials. However, thisprocess can also create flaws in the structure that increase in severity and frequency as the pinsgrow in length and diameter. To mitigate this, a penetrating nozzle has been developed thatextends a fine-tipped extrusion nozzle deep into the pin cavity and simultaneously extrudesmaterial as it retracts. This study investigates the printability of the penetrating nozzle for simplegeometries and evaluates the resulting Z-pinning mesostructure. As a result of this study, theprototype penetrating nozzle design was analyzed and built. Through a pressure driven flowanalysis it was determined that the penetrating nozzle extruder can not only flow extrudefilament. After a transient thermal simulation it was found that after a pause of 15 secondsresume printing with no drop in heat at nozzle exit.

Bales, Brenin↗

DOE OSTI2023

London penetration depth of electron-irradiated Ba 0 . 47 K 0 . 53 Fe 2 As 2

We have characterized an electron-irradiated Ba 1-x K x Fe 2 As 2 (x = 0.53) single-crystal using two different experimental techniques: magneto-optic measurements and microwave measurements. The crystal has been measured before as well as after the 2.5 MeV electron irradiation process. After irradiation it was annealed in a number of steps, between 90 °C and 180 °C, and measured after each annealing step. Most microwave measurements were performed by means of a copper cavity, taking advantage of the TE 011 and TM 110 modes, allowing for the determination of the London penetration depths changes δλ ab (T) and δλ c (T), ie perpendicular and parallel to the sample c-axis. Appropriate equations, based on perturbation theory, were derived to calculate the penetration depths changes δλ ab and δλ c for a rectangular prism geometry. The sample showed a full recovery of its T c , however the observed behavior of δλ c and δλ ab was not monotonic vs annealing temperature, displaying a minimum of δλ c and δλ ab at 120 °C. In conclusion, this finding was confirmed by magneto-optic measurements, where besides verifying the sample uniformity and the absence of visible defects, the lower critical field H c1 of the Ba 1-x K x Fe 2 As 2 single-crystal was obtained and the London penetration depth λab(0) was calculated.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utility Perspective on Protection Challenges with High IBR Penetration [Slides]

Utilities have seen rapid increase in Solar, Wind, and Battery Energy Storage Resources that interconnect to their electric system through Inverters. Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) have fault current characteristics that are unlike the fault current response of traditional rotating-machine-based generators, which is well known and repeatable. IBR’s non-traditional fault current behavior is due to the IBR control scheme, which is configured to provide a clean AC output but also protect the inverter’s sensitive power electronics devices from damage, one source of which is overcurrent. This results in low fault current magnitude, low or no negative sequence current injection, the variability of sequence component currents, the variability of voltage with respect to current angles, and the lack of inertia. The control scheme also results in a fault current response that can vary between manufactures and between models of the same manufacturer. High penetration of IBRs can adversely affect the protection schemes applied in areas with high penetration of IBRs. With the proliferation of IBRs, utilities are finding out that conventional protection schemes are not adequately equipped to protect the electric systems. This is mainly because the existing protection elements and practices have been designed based on the fault current response of conventional rotating machines. In several cases, the available literature does not provide any clear solution for the issues when the protection scheme does not operate properly near IBRs. This report identifies various protection challenges due to IBRs that industry is facing, from the utility perspective. Instead of facing on one issue, this report looks broadly on all the challenges that system protection has experienced with high penetration of IBRs. Based on the IBR response from various utilities during real fault events and gathering perspective from different utility SMEs via questionnaire, the report summarizes on gathered data and internal experiences.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pursuing small-scale measures of penetration resistance in Ti-5553 alloy

This work was originally proposed to illustrate the performance of a particular set of differently processed Ti-5553 plates under dynamic threats. It became clear that the larger question, at present, is whether the small-scale shaped charge design of an RP-4 detonator can be employed to efficiently explore the dynamic penetration resistance of representative test articles. The initial penetration testing that employed three variants of thermomechanical processing of Ti-5553 plates appeared to demonstrate that there was a noticeable difference in their performance. The remaining pertinent question was regarding the variation in the shaped charge performance and how it compares to the variation from the three titanium plate tests. Based on the limited testing presented here the RP-4 shaped charge detonator appears to have an average depth of penetration in 6061 aluminum of 90mm with a 1.5CD stand off.

shaped charge penetration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry structure of a Riccati equation appearing in penetration mechanics

In the design of projectile penetration experiments a matter of considerable interest is scaling: that is, the potential relevance of small-scale experiments to their full-scale counterparts, in a manner analogous to that most often encountered in the context of fluid mechanics. From the theoretical standpoint, phenomena associated with scaling and scalability can be assessed using the well-established tools of dimensional analysis and the Buckingham-Pi Theorem. However, the familiar precepts of dimensional analysis are themselves a specific manifestation of the broader group invariance properties or symmetries of a mathematical model. Here, this work explores these notions – that is, dimensional analysis, the conditions for realizing complete similarity, and any additional symmetry structures – in the context of a Riccati differential equation appearing in the context of penetration mechanics. The aim of the investigation is twofold: 1) to complement existing empirical considerations with a concrete theoretical basis, and 2) to provide a deeper theoretical understanding of the projectile penetration model and its many implications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid ancillary services using electrolyzer-Based power-to-Gas systems with increasing renewable penetration

Increasing penetrations of renewable-based generation have led to a decrease in the bulk power system inertia and an increase in intermittency and uncertainty in generation. Energy storage is considered to be an important factor to help manage renewable energy generation at greater penetrations. Hydrogen is a viable long-term storage alternative. This paper analyzes and presents use cases for leveraging electrolyzer-based power-to-gas systems for electric grid support. The paper also discusses some grid services that may favor the use of hydrogen-based storage over other forms such as battery energy storage. Real-time controls are developed, implemented and demonstrated using a power-hardware-in-the-loop(PHIL) setup with a 225-kW proton-exchange-membrane electrolyzer stack. These controls demonstrate frequency and voltage support for the grid for different levels of renewable penetration (0%, 25%, and 50%). A comparison of the results shows the changes in respective frequencies and voltages as seen as different buses as a result of support from the electrolyzers and notes the impact on hydrogen production as a result of grid support. Finally, the paper discusses the practical nuances of implementing the tests with physical hardware, such as inverter/electrolyzer efficiency, as well as the related constraints and opportunities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Penetrating Kelvin Waves on MJO Rainfall Propagation Through Deep Convection Modulation

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant intraseasonal oscillation in the tropics. As MJOs propagate over the Indian Ocean, some of them can be penetrated by fast‐moving equatorial Kelvin waves originating to the west of the MJOs. Through a series of sensitivity experiments, we demonstrate that these penetrating Kelvin waves can modulate the eastward propagation speed of MJO rainfall. Deep convection in the western MJO rainfall envelope initiates more frequently and produces greater lifetime rainfall when a convectively active Kelvin phase is present, while the opposite occurs during a convectively suppressed Kelvin phase. This alteration in deep convection activity can lead to notable changes in the propagation of the large‐scale MJO rainfall envelope. The modulation of deep convection lifetime rainfall by penetrating Kelvin waves primarily occurs through their impact on deep convection rainfall area, which is closely related to the variations in lower‐tropospheric moisture induced by the Kelvin waves.

Chen, Xingchao [Pennsylvania State Univ., Universi↗