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At least 37 records · Page 2

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations.The tool includes climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗

Peak Wind Forecasts for the Launch-Critical Wind Towers on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV

This final report describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The peak winds arc an important forecast clement for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the statistics in the current peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool includes onshore and offshore flow climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Barrett, Joe, III↗

A Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

This conference abstract describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violatioas.The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean end peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Crawford, Winifred↗

Developing a Peak Wind Probability Forecast Tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

This conference presentation describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Lambert, WInifred↗

SN2020bvc: A Broad-line Type Ic Supernova with a Double-peaked Optical Light Curve and a Luminous X-Ray and Radio Counterpart

We present optical, radio, and X-ray observations of SN 2020bvc (=ASASSN-20bs, ZTF 20aalxlis), a nearby (z = 0.0252; d = 114Mpc) broad-line (BL) Type Ic supernova (SN) and the first double-peaked Ic-BL discovered without a gamma-ray burst (GRB) trigger. Our observations show that SN 2020bvc shares several properties in common with the Ic-BL SN 2006aj, which was associated with the low-luminosity gamma-ray burst (LLGRB) 060218. First, the 10 GHz radio luminosity (L(radio) ≈ 10^(37) erg/s) is brighter than ordinary core-collapse SNe but fainter than LLGRB SNe such as SN 1998bw (associated with LLGRB 980425). We model our VLA observations (spanning 13–43 days) as synchrotron emission from a mildly relativistic (v ≳ 0.3c) forward shock. Second, with Swift and Chandra, we detect X-ray emission (L(X) ≈ 10^(41) erg/s) that is not naturally explained as inverse Compton emission or part of the same synchrotron spectrum as the radio emission. Third, high-cadence (6 × per night) data from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) show a double-peaked optical light curve, the first peak from shock cooling of extended low-mass material (mass Me < 10^(-2) Mꙩ at radius Re > 10^(12) cm) and the second peak from the radioactive decay of 56Ni. SN 2020bvc is the first double-peaked Ic-BL SN discovered without a GRB trigger, so it is noteworthy that it shows X-ray and radio emission similar to LLGRB SNe. For four of the five other nearby (z ≲ 0.05) Ic-BL SNe with ZTF high-cadence data, we rule out a first peak like that seen in SN 2006aj and SN 2020bvc, i.e., that lasts ≈1 day and reaches a peak luminosity M ≈ −18. Follow-up X-ray and radio observations of Ic-BL SNe with well-sampled early optical light curves will establish whether double-peaked optical light curves are indeed predictive of LLGRB-like X-ray and radio emission.

Anna Y. Q. Ho↗

Orientations of central peaks in lunar craters - Implications for regional structural trends

Impact craters are dominant features on the lunar surface and all fresh craters with diameters greater than 35 km possess central peaks. Approximately half of these central peaks (54%) have either linear or arcuate geometry and display some preferential orientation. These orientations were measured for 200 lunar craters of Pre-Nectarian to Copernican age. A pervasive regional north-south trend is identified for central peak orientation, with secondary trends at + or - 20-30 deg from this axis. No evidence for regional east-west trends is found. These orientations are shown to persist in craters formed through the last 4 billion years of lunar history. A lack of coincidence between impact direction, as determined from ejecta asymmetries and peak orientation, argues for structural control by the target as a source of the linear peak morphology. This is supported by the regional and temporal persistence of preferred peak orientations. It is proposed that linear central peak orientations in lunar craters reflect a pervasive regional structural system which developed early in lunar history and has persisted through geologic time.

Hale, W.↗

Reduction in peak oxygen uptake after prolonged bed rest

The hypothesis that the magnitude of the reduction in peak oxygen uptake (VO2) after bed rest is directly proportional to the level of pre-bed rest peak VO2 is tested. Complete pre and post-bed rest working capacity and body weight data were obtained from studies involving 24 men (19-24 years old) and 8 women (23-34 years old) who underwent bed rest for 14-20 days with no remedial treatments. Results of regression analyses of the present change in post-bed rest peak VO2 on pre-bed rest peak VO2 with 32 subjects show correlation coefficients of -0.03 (NS) for data expressed in 1/min and -0.17 for data expressed in ml/min-kg. In addition, significant correlations are found that support the hypothesis only when peak VO2 data are analyzed separately from studies that utilized the cycle ergometer, particularly with subjects in the supine position, as opposed to data obtained from treadmill peak VO2 tests. It is concluded that orthostatic factors, associated with the upright body position and relatively high levels of physical fitness from endurance training, appear to increase the variability of pre and particularly post-bed rest peak VO2 data, which would lead to rejection of the hypothesis.

Greenleaf, J. E.↗

Confirmation of the E(sup src)(sub Peak)-E(sub iso) (Amati) relation from the x-ray flash XRF 050416A observed by the Swift burst alert telescope

We report Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) observations of the X-ray flash (XRF) XRF 050416A. The fluence ratio between the 15-25 and 25-50 keV energy bands of this event is 1.5, thus making it the softest gamma-ray burst (GRB) observed by BAT so far. The spectrum is well fitted by a Band function with E(sup obs)(sub peak) of 15.0(sup +2.3)(sub -2.7) keV. Assuming the redshift of the host galaxy (z = 0.6535), the isotropic equivalent radiated energy E(sub iso) and the peak energy at the GRB rest frame (E(sup src)(sub peak)) of XRF 050416A are not only consistent with the correlation found by Amati et al. and extended to XRFs by Sakamoto et al. but also fill in the gap of this relation around the 30-80 keV range of E(sup src)(sub peak). This result tightens the validity of the E(sup src)(sub Peak)-E(sup src)(sub peak) relation from XRFs to GRBs. We also find that the jet break time estimated using the empirical relation between E(sup src)(sub peak) and the collimation corrected energy E(sub gamma), is inconsistent with the afterglow observation by the Swift X-Ray Telescope. This could be due to the extra external shock emission overlaid around the jet break time or to the nonexistence of a jet break feature for XRFs, which might be a further challenge for GRB jet emission models and XRF/GRB unification scenarios.

Sakamoti, T.↗

Reviewing E(sub peak) Relations with Swift and Suzaku Data

In recent years several authors have derived correlations between gamma-ray burst (GRB) spectral peak energy (E(sub peak)) and either isotropic-equivalent radiated energy (E(sub iso)) or peak luminosity (L(sub iso)). Since these relationships are controversial, but could provide redshift estimators, it is important to determine whether bursts detected by Swift exhibit the same correlations. Swift has greatly added to the number of GRBs for which redshifts are known and hence E(sub iso) and L(sub iso) could be calculated. However, for most bursts it is not possible to adequately constrain E(sub peak) with Swift data alone since most GRBs have E(sub peak) above the energy range (15-50 keV) of the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT). Therefore we have analyzed the spectra of 78 bursts (31 with redshift) which were detected by both Swift/BAT and the Suzaku Wide-band All-sky Monitor (WAM), which covers the energy range 50-5000 keV. For most bursts in this sample we can precisely determine E(sub peak) and for bursts with known redshift we can compare how the E(sub peak) relations for the Swift/Suzaku sample compare to earlier published results. Keywords: gamma rays: bursts

Krimm, Hans A.↗

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded again by six years, from October 1996 to April 2002, by interpolating 1000-ft sounding data to 100-ft increments. The Phase II developmental data set included observations for the cool season months of October 1996 to February 2007. The AMU calculated 68 candidate predictors from the XMR soundings, to include 19 stability parameters, 48 wind speed parameters and one wind shear parameter. Each day in the data set was stratified by synoptic weather pattern, low-level wind direction, precipitation and Richardson Number, for a total of 60 stratification methods. Linear regression equations, using the 68 predictors and 60 stratification methods, were created for the tool's three forecast parameters: the highest peak wind speed of the day (PWSD), 5-minute average speed at the same time (A WSD), and timing of the PWSD. For PWSD and A WSD, 30 Phase II methods were selected for evaluation in the verification data set. For timing of the PWSD, 12 Phase\I methods were selected for evaluation. The verification data set contained observations for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The data set was used to compare the Phase I and II forecast methods to climatology, model forecast winds and wind advisories issued by the 45 WS. The model forecast winds were derived from the 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the 12-km North American Mesoscale (MesoNAM) model. The forecast methods that performed the best in the verification data set were selected for the Phase II version of the tool. For PWSD and A WSD, linear regression equations based on MesoNAM forecasts performed significantly better than the Phase I and II methods. For timing of the PWSD, none of the methods performed significantly bener than climatology. The AMU then developed the Microsoft Excel and MIDDS GUls. The GUIs display the forecasts for PWSD, AWSD and the probability the PWSD will meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. Since none of the prediction methods for timing of the PWSD performed significantly better thanlimatology, the tool no longer displays this predictand. The Excel and MIDDS GUIs display forecasts for Day-I to Day-3 and Day-I to Day-5, respectively. The Excel GUI uses MesoNAM forecasts as input, while the MIDDS GUI uses input from the MesoNAM and Global Forecast System model. Based on feedback from the 45 WS, the AMU added the daily average wind speed from 30 ft to 60 ft to the tool, which is one of the parameters in the 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45 WS. In addition, the AMU expanded the MIDDS GUI to include forecasts out to Day-7.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Automatic Locking of Laser Frequency to an Absorption Peak

An electronic system adjusts the frequency of a tunable laser, eventually locking the frequency to a peak in the optical absorption spectrum of a gas (or of a Fabry-Perot cavity that has an absorption peak like that of a gas). This system was developed to enable precise locking of the frequency of a laser used in differential absorption LIDAR measurements of trace atmospheric gases. This system also has great commercial potential as a prototype of means for precise control of frequencies of lasers in future dense wavelength-division-multiplexing optical communications systems. The operation of this system is completely automatic: Unlike in the operation of some prior laser-frequency-locking systems, there is ordinarily no need for a human operator to adjust the frequency manually to an initial value close enough to the peak to enable automatic locking to take over. Instead, this system also automatically performs the initial adjustment. The system (see Figure 1) is based on a concept of (1) initially modulating the laser frequency to sweep it through a spectral range that includes the desired absorption peak, (2) determining the derivative of the absorption peak with respect to the laser frequency for use as an error signal, (3) identifying the desired frequency [at the very top (which is also the middle) of the peak] as the frequency where the derivative goes to zero, and (4) thereafter keeping the frequency within a locking range and adjusting the frequency as needed to keep the derivative (the error signal) as close as possible to zero. More specifically, the system utilizes the fact that in addition to a zero crossing at the top of the absorption peak, the error signal also closely approximates a straight line in the vicinity of the zero crossing (see Figure 2). This vicinity is the locking range because the linearity of the error signal in this range makes it useful as a source of feedback for a proportional + integral + derivative control scheme that constantly adjusts the frequency in an effort to drive the error to zero. When the laser frequency deviates from the midpeak value but remains within the locking range, the magnitude and sign of the error signal indicate the amount of detuning and the control circuitry adjusts the frequency by what it estimates to be the negative of this amount in an effort to bring the error to zero.

Koch, Grady J.↗

The Double-peaked Radio Light Curve of Supernova PTF11qcj

We present continued radio and X-ray follow-up observations of PTF11qcj, a highly energetic broad-lined Type Ic supernova (SN), with a radio peak luminosity comparable to that of the γ-ray burst (GRB) associated SN 1998bw. The latest radio observations, carried out with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array, extend up to ∼5 yr after the PTF11qcj optical discovery. The radio light curve shows a double-peak profile, possibly associated with density variations in the circumstellar medium (CSM), or with the presence of an off-axis GRB jet. Optical spectra of PTF11qcj taken during both peaks of the radio light curve do not show the broad Hα features typically expected from H-rich circumstellar interaction. Modeling of the second radio peak within the CSM-interaction scenario requires a flatter density profile and an enhanced progenitor mass-loss rate compared to those required to model the first peak. Our radio data alone cannot rule out the alternative scenario of an off-axis GRB powering the second radio peak, but the derived GRB parameters are somewhat unusual compared to typical values found for cosmological long GRBs. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations carried out during the second radio peak are compatible with the off-axis GRB hypothesis, within the large measurement errors. We conclude that VLBI measurements of the PTF11qcj radio ejecta are needed to unambiguously confirm or rule out the off-axis GRB jet scenario.

Nipuni T Palliyaguru↗

Ambiguous Stability of Glaciers at Bed Peaks

Increasing ice flux from glaciers retreating over deepening (retrograde) bed topography has been implicated in the recent acceleration of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We show in observations that some glaciers have remained at peaks in bed topography without retreating despite enduring significant changes in climate. Observations also indicate that some glaciers which persist at bed peaks undergo sudden retreat years or decades after the onset of local ocean or atmospheric warming. Using model simulations, we show that persistence of a glacier at a bed peak is caused by ice slowing as it flows up a reverse-sloping bed to the peak. Persistence at bed peaks may lead to two very different future behaviors for a glacier: one where it persists at a bed peak indefinitely, and another where it retreats from the bed peak after potentially long delays following climate forcing. However, it is nearly impossible to distinguish which of these two future behaviors will occur from current observations. We conclude that inferring glacier stability from observations of persistence obscures our true commitment to future sea-level rise under climate change. We recommend that further research is needed on seemingly stable glaciers to determine their likely future.

ice dynamics↗

Central peaks in lunar craters - Morphology and morphometry

Fresh lunar craters with diameters from 17 to 175 km are found to display a linear relationship between the central peak morphology and morphometry and such critical crater parameters as rim crest diameter, floor diameter, and substrate. Some other previously established linear relationships have been cited as evidence that floor diameter, peak height, and peak ring diameter are related to the kinetic energy of impact. The two new relations derived in the present work would therefore indicate that the central peaks, too, are related to the kinetic energy of impact, and probably begin to form early in the cratering event as suggested by Milton and Roddy (1972) and Head (1978). There seems to be no obvious reason to expect such linear relationships between central peak diameter and rim crest and floor diameter if the peaks are formed by gravity induced failure of the transient cavity, as suggested by Dence et al. (1968).

Hale, W.↗

Central peaks in Mercurian craters - Comparisons to the moon

A key question in cratering studies continues to be the mode of formation of central structures. Studies of central peaks, the smallest and simplest central features found in impact structures, could provide clues to the formational mechanisms of the entire morphologic sequence of central features. The present investigation is concerned with a systematic examination of central peaks in fresh Mercurian craters, and a comparison of Mercurian and lunar central peak morphometry and morphology. It is found that the central peak diameter/rim diameter relation on Mercury is indistinguishable from the lunar case. The gravitational field strength of the planet, therefore, does not appear to be the dominant force controlling central peak formation. Of the presently proposed processes for central peak formation, dynamic rebound best fits current observations.

Hale, W.↗

Emergence of double-peaked emission lines in the broad-line radio galaxy Pictor A

A new optical spectrum of the nearby broad-line radio galaxy (BLRG) Pictor A reveals a prominent double-peaked component of the Balmer lines which does not appear in any historical spectra of this object. Carried out with the hope of obtaining exactly such a result, this observation is a key to the interpretation of double-peaked emitters. If bolsters our previous conclusion that there is a set of additional properties which are associated with the rare class of double-peaked emitters, namely F-R II radio morphology, strong low-ionization forbidden lines, weak UV continuum, and flat far-infrared spectrum. Furthermore, the low-velocity, 'ordinary' broad Balmer lines in Pictor A remained relatively unchanged as the new twin peaks appeared, which justifies the practice of applying models that fit only the double peaks and not the low-velocity components that are often present in spectra of this type. We discuss the relative merits of accretion-disk models and other models for double-peaked emission lines in the light of this new observation.

Halpern, Jules P.↗

Multi-wavelength intra-peak phase separations in pulsed emissions from the Crab and the Vela pulsars

The Crab and the Vela pulsars were observed to emit pulsed radiation in the radio, optical, X-ray and gamma ray windows of the electromagnetic spectrum. In all cases the emission appears in two peaks, except in the case of radio emission from the Vela pulsar which is single peaked. With accurate peak position determinations made possible by recent observations, it is interesting to see if the intra-peak separations at various wavelengths across the electromagnetic spectrum bear any relation to each other. We report here an emerging trend of a monotonic decrease of the intra-peak separation with energy. The rate of decrease is faster in the case of the Vela pulsar than in that of the Crab pulsar. Even the case of single peaked radio emission by the Vela pulsar can be viewed as being consistent with this trend. These trends provide both an opportunity and a challenge to realistic modelings of pulsed emissions by these objects.

Ramanamurthy, P. V.↗