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NASA's Identified Risk of Adverse Outcomes due to Inadequate Human Systems Integration Architecture

The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks identified to be associated with human spaceflight. As part of this process, the Board is charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to evaluate those risks and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. Risks are ranked by likelihood and consequence. Intermediate causal relationships between risk contributing factors and countermeasures that link hazards to outcomes are described using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). The DAGs are also useful for identifying common factors and countermeasures across the top 30 risks as well as communicating how astronaut exposure to spaceflight hazards leads to meaningful mission-level health and performance outcomes. One of the top risks tracked by the HSRB is The Risk of Adverse Outcomes Due to Inadequate Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA). This risk captures the possibility that due to decreasing real-time ground support during missions beyond LEO, crew will be unable to adequately respond to unanticipated critical malfunctions or detect safety-critical procedural errors. The HSIA risk is ranked red (high) for Lunar surface and Mars missions due to the probability of Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission consequences. This paper describes the evidence that supports the HSIA risk ranking and presents the central narrative of the HSIA risk DAG-- i.e., anomaly detection, diagnosis, intervention, and task performance. Characterizations of the current state of practice for each of the DAG’s central nodes and the future tools needed for successful anomaly response are provided.

human-systems integration architecture↗

Comparison Between Continuous and Intermittent Actigraphy Outcomes During Long-Duration Missions

INTRODUCTION Historically, astronauts have worn actigraphy watches continuously throughout their missions. This has enabled reliable sleep estimation and comparisons between sleep and other outcomes and mission activities such as the arrival of a visiting vehicle. However in late 2020, astronauts were scheduled to wear an actiwatch for one 2-week period every two months, substantially decreasing availability of data. Our aim was to compare sleep and mission events between data collected continuously and data collected intermittently to identify any differences. METHODS Crewmembers (n = 19) who volunteered for the NASA Standard Measures protocol between January 2019 and March 2022 were provided with actiwatches (Phillips, Respironics, Bend OR) that they wore either continuously (C; n = 9) or for two weeks every two months while in space (2W; n = 10). We used crew schedules to identify mission events that were asynchronous with actigraphy. We further compared sleep outcomes (sleep duration, wake after sleep onset [WASO], sleep efficiency) between the C and 2W actigraphy collection. RESULTS In the 2W group, sleep data was not available for 52% of EVAs, 67% of visiting vehicle events, and 67% of commander turnovers. Average sleep duration for the 2W group (M = 6.91, ± 1.24 SD) was significantly lower compared to the C group (7.51 ± 1.08, p < .01). Sleep efficiency was better for those in the C group (90.56 ± 5.19) than for those in the 2W group (87.02 ± 6.47 p < .01). There were no significant differences in WASO (C = 26.66 ±12.99; 2W = 32.38 ± 18.83). DISCUSSION Continuous actigraphy data collection yields different sleep outcomes compared to intermittent data collection. In addition, many mission events were not captured with intermittent data collection. Our findings support the use of continuous actigraphy data collection.

fatigue↗

The ESA Hera Mission: Detailed Investigation of the NASA Dart Impact Outcome and Characterization of the Binary Asteroid Didymos

The Hera mission is in development in the Space Safety Program of the European Space Agency (ESA) in collaboration with JAXA for launch in October 2024. It will rendezvous with the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos in early 2027 and over the following 6 months will investigate the properties of Didymos and its small moon Dirmorphos, including the effects of the successful impact of the NASA DART probe. DART was launched on 24 November 2021 at 06:21 UTC and successfully impacted at about 6.1 km/s on the 160 meter-size Dimorphos on 26 September 2022 at 23:14 UTC. Two weeks before impact, it deployed the Light Italian Cubesat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube) that provided images during the few minutes following the impact. A campaign of observations from Earth and space provided distant images of the event, which were used to determine a reduction of 33 min in the orbital period of Dimorphos around Didymos. The Hera mission will investigate the outcome of the DART impact in detail. In particular, it will determine the effects of the impact on Dimorphos’ surface, e.g., whether it produced a crater, and if so its properties, and/or whether it led to global reshaping of Dimorphos. It will accurately measure the mass of Dimorphos, which will allow quantification of the momentum enhancement factor, which is a crucial parameter to evaluate the efficiency of the kinetic impactor technique. Hera will also determine in detail the physical, thermal and compositional properties of the asteroid, including first time measurements of the internal properties, which have a critical influence on the impact outcome. With Hera and DART together, we will have a fully documented deflection test and impact experiment that will allow us to verify our numerical impact models, to be able to extrapolate this deflection test to other asteroids and to improve our understanding of the complex geological properties and response of small asteroids. Hera consists of a mother spacecraft and two cubesats. It will perform the first rendezvous with a binary asteroid, arriving at Didymos about 4 years after DART. Hera will not only contribute significantly to the planetary defense effort by documenting entirely the outcome of the DART impact, it will also greatly advance our understanding of processes in the very low gravity regime of a small asteroidv (Dimorphos) as well as our knowledge of binary asteroids and asteroid geophysics. The mission development is progressing nominally, with the Critical Design Review having been passed in Nov. 2022. The various working groups of the Hera Science Team are working intensively to support this development and be best prepared for the surprises that Hera will offer during its visit to Didymos in 2027.

Asteroid deflection↗

Conclusions of a Mini Technical Interchange Meeting on Mechanisms and Pathways Common Between Adverse Health Outcomes from Exposures to Space Radiation

To enable deep space exploration and sustained human presence in space, the NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Space Radiation Element (SRE) funds research to characterize and mitigate adverse health outcomes from exposure to space radiation that include risks of carcinogenesis, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and central nervous system (CNS) decrements. Over the past decade, a growing body of compelling experimental evidence suggests shared mechanisms and pathophysiological processes for CVD, neurodegenerative effects, and cancer development and progression, which are traditionally managed as separate disease processes. Additionally, epidemiological studies have identified cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between some specific types of cancer and CVD, and accumulating evidence indicates that the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease may overlap with CVD and cancer pathogenesis. Identifying the mechanisms and pathways common to these important health decrements will not only accelerate development of effective countermeasures and improve management of spaceflight-induced risk, it will also help to develop new treatment strategies for patients on Earth. To identify common pathways and mechanisms of disease induction and progression from current SR-funded studies and to inform future work and solicitations, the SRE organizes themed sessions at annual HRP Investigators’ Workshops (IWS). These technical interchange meetings (TIMs) provide a venue for the scientific community to present ongoing work and engage in open discussion on results, limitations of current approaches, and incorporation of novel experimental strategies, model systems, and other innovative techniques. Here a summary and lessons learned from the SRE-sponsored mini-TIM titled “mechanisms and pathways common between adverse health outcomes” held at HRP IWS 2023 will be communicated. The 90-min TIM had 30-min dedicated to discussing and developing potential collaboration and tissue sharing opportunities among investigators. The SRE facilitated the discussion using a set of pressing questions and gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed by the scientific community. This poster presents the outcomes of the session along with proposed future workshops and other SRE initiatives.

Janapriya Saha↗

Conclusions of a Mini Technical Interchange Meeting on Mechanisms and Pathways Common Between Adverse Health Outcomes from Exposures to Space Radiation

To enable deep space exploration and sustained human presence in space, the NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Space Radiation Element (SRE) funds research to characterize and mitigate adverse health outcomes from exposure to space radiation that include risks of carcinogenesis, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and central nervous system (CNS) decrements. Over the past decade, a growing body of compelling experimental evidence suggests shared mechanisms and pathophysiological processes for CVD, neurodegenerative effects, and cancer development and progression, which are traditionally managed as separate disease processes. Additionally, epidemiological studies have identified cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between some specific types of cancer and CVD, and accumulating evidence indicates that the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease may overlap with CVD and cancer pathogenesis. Identifying the mechanisms and pathways common to these important health decrements will not only accelerate development of effective countermeasures and improve management of spaceflight-induced risk, it will also help to develop new treatment strategies for patients on Earth. To identify common pathways and mechanisms of disease induction and progression from current SR-funded studies and to inform future work and solicitations, the SRE organizes themed sessions at annual HRP Investigators’ Workshops (IWS). These technical interchange meetings (TIMs) provide a venue for the scientific community to present ongoing work and engage in open discussion on results, limitations of current approaches, and incorporation of novel experimental strategies, model systems, and other innovative techniques. Here a summary and lessons learned from the SRE-sponsored mini-TIM titled “mechanisms and pathways common between adverse health outcomes” held at HRP IWS 2023 will be communicated. The 90-min TIM had 30-min dedicated to discussing and developing potential collaboration and tissue sharing opportunities among investigators. The SRE facilitated the discussion using a set of pressing questions and gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed by the scientific community. This poster presents the outcomes of the session along with proposed future workshops and other SRE initiatives.

Janapriya Saha↗

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗

Maternal reproductive experience enhances early postnatal outcome following gestation and birth of rats in hypergravity

A major goal of space life sciences research is to broaden scientific knowledge of the influence of gravity on living systems. Recent spaceflight and centrifugation studies demonstrate that reproduction and ontogenesis in mammals are amenable to study under gravitational conditions that deviate considerably from those typically experienced on Earth (1 x g). In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that maternal reproductive experience determines neonatal outcome following gestation and birth under increased (hyper) gravity. Primigravid and bigravid female rats and their offspring were exposed to 1.5 x g centrifugation from Gestational Day 11 either through birth or through the first postnatal week. On the day of birth, litter sizes were identical across gravity and parity conditions, although significantly fewer live neonates were observed among hypergravity-reared litters born to primigravid dams than among those born to bigravid dams (82% and 94%, respectively; 1.0 x g controls, 99%). Within the hypergravity groups, neonatal mortality was comparable across parity conditions from Postnatal Day 1 through Day 7, at which time litter sizes stabilized. Maternal reproductive experience ameliorated neonatal losses during the first 24 h after birth but not on subsequent days, and neonatal mortality was associated with changes in maternal care patterns. These results indicate that repeated maternal reproductive experience affords protection against neonatal losses during exposure to increased gravity. Differential mortality of neonates born to primigravid versus bigravid dams denotes gravitational load as one environmental mechanism enabling the expression of parity-related variations in birth outcome.

NASA Discipline Developmental Biology↗

Outcomes of planetary close encounters - A systematic comparison of methodologies

Several methods for estimating the outcomes of close planetary encounters are compared on the basis of the numerical integration of a range of encounter types. An attempt is made to lay the foundation for the development of predictive rules concerning the encounter outcomes applicable to the refinement of the statistical mechanics that apply to planet-formation and similar problems concerning planetary swarms. Attention is given to Oepik's (1976) formulation of the two-body approximation, whose predicted motion differs from the correct three-body behavior.

Greenberg, Richard↗

Centrifugation Effects on Estrous Cycling, Mating Success and Pregnancy Outcome in Rats

We analyzed the effects of 2-g centrifugation on estrous cycling, mating success and pregnancy outcome in rats. Sexually mature female and male rats were assigned to either 2-g centrifuge or non-centrifuge conditions, and to non-breeding or breeding conditions. In non-breeding females, estrous cycles were analyzed by examining vaginal cytology before and for 35 days during centrifugation. Breeding females were time-mated following 7 days of adaptation to centrifugation. Following adaptation to centrifugation, estrous cycle duration over a five-cycle period was similar in centrifuged and non-centrifuged females. Identical numbers of centrifuged and non-centrifuged females conceived, however centrifuged females took four-times longer than controls to achieve conception. Births occurred at the normal gestational length. Pup birth weight and postnatal survival were p<0.05 reduced in centrifuged as compared to non-centrifuged groups. In conclusion, 2-g centrifugation had no effect on estrous cycle length or the probably of becoming pregnant but delayed conception and diminished pregnancy outcome.

Ronca, April E.↗

Toward a Physical Characterization of Raindrop Collision Outcome Regimes

A comprehensive raindrop collision outcome regime diagram that delineates the physical conditions associated with the outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and different breakup types) of binary raindrop collisions is proposed. The proposed diagram builds on a theoretical regime diagram defined in the phase space of collision Weber numbers We and the drop diameter ratio p by including critical angle of impact considerations. In this study, the theoretical regime diagram is first evaluated against a comprehensive dataset for drop collision experiments representative of raindrop collisions in nature. Subsequently, the theoretical regime diagram is modified to explicitly describe the dominant regimes of raindrop interactions in (We, p) by delineating the physical conditions necessary for the occurrence of distinct types of collision-induced breakup (neck/filament, sheet, disk, and crown breakups) based on critical angle of impact consideration. Crown breakup is a subtype of disk breakup for lower collision kinetic energy that presents distinctive morphology. Finally, the experimental results are analyzed in the context of the comprehensive collision regime diagram, and conditional probabilities that can be used in the parameterization of breakup kernels in stochastic models of raindrop dynamics are provided.

Testik, F. Y.↗

The Effect of Heroic Medical Care on Mission Medical Outcomes

Study Objective: A catastrophic medical event depletes medical resources. What happens to the rest of the mission’s medical outcomes after such an event? Use Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to see if we can find out. What is the Integrated Medical Model? PRA model using Monte Carlo methodology; Used to assess mission risk due to in-flight medical events; User defined Design Reference Missions (DRM) (crew, duration, EVA (Extra-Vehicular Activity), etc.); Considers outcomes for 100 medical conditions that have or may occur in-flight; 100,000 trials conducted per DRM.

Reyes, David P.↗

Outcomes of a NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Space Radiation Element-sponsored Mini-Technical Interchange Meeting/workshop on Cardiovascular Disease Risk from Space Radiation

The NASA HRP’s Space Radiation Element funds research to characterize and mitigate adverse health outcomes from space radiation including cardiovascular risks to astronauts to enable deep space exploration and sustained human presence in space. Non-cancer effects such as damage to the cardiovascular system have been observed at clinically relevant high doses of ionizing radiation. However, an association between lower doses and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains somewhat controversial, especially in relation to the existence of low dose thresholds, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects, as well as gaps in characterizing the mechanisms and major pathways of disease. To facilitate, accelerate, and incubate new ideas to characterize and mitigate this risk, the Element is planning to organize a series of miniature technical interchange meetings (Tiny-TIMs) to provide a venue for HRP-funded investigators and thought leaders to present ongoing work and engage in open discussion on presented results, limitations of current approaches, incorporating better experimental strategies, model systems, etc. The initial Tiny-TIM held during the NASA HRP Investigators’ Workshop earlier this year – Upping the ante on characterizing and mitigating cardiovascular disease risk from space radiation exposure – aimed to stimulate discussion on the current state of scientific knowledge of CVD risk from space-like radiation exposure. The Tiny-TIM consisted of two 90-minute sessions; the first session concentrated on current knowledge of CVD risk from space radiation and the second session focused on innovative ideas, newer approaches, and techniques to accelerate research. The second session was followed by an open spirited discussion amongst peers on the current issues impeding the characterization of CVD risk from space radiation. The Element facilitated the discussion using a set of pressing open questions/gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed by the scientific community. The outcomes of the Tiny-TIM will be presented along with a plan of proposed future workshops and other initiatives of the Space Radiation Element.

Janapriya Saha↗

Outcomes of a Mini Technical Interchange Meeting Concerning the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease from Exposure to Space Radiation

The NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Space Radiation Element (SRE) funds research to characterize and mitigate adverse health outcomes from exposure to space radiation to enable deep space exploration and sustained human presence in space. Damage to the cardiovascular system has been observed after exposure to clinically relevant doses of ionizing radiation. However, an association between lower radiation doses and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains controversial, and questions pertaining to dose thresholds, radiation quality and dose-rate effects, and gaps in characterizing the mechanisms and major pathways of CVD remain. To solicit new ideas for characterizing and mitigating this risk, the SRE is organizing a series of miniature technical interchange meeting (Tiny-TIM) that provide a venue for HRP-funded investigators and thought leaders to present ongoing work and engage in open discussion on relevant topics. The initial Tiny-TIM: Upping the Ante on Characterizing and Mitigating Cardiovascular Disease Risk from Space Radiation Exposure, held at the NASA HRP Investigators’ Workshop (IWS) earlier this year, consisted of two 90-minute sessions; the first focused on current knowledge of CVD risk from space radiation exposure, and the second focused on innovative ideas, and newer approaches and techniques to accelerate research. The second session was followed by an open, spirited discussion amongst peers on the current issues impeding the characterization of CVD risk. SRE leadership facilitated the discussion using a set of pressing questions and gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed by the scientific community. This poster presents the outcomes of the Tiny-TIM, along with proposed future workshops and the SRE’s other initiatives.

Janapriya Saha↗

A Pilot Project for Quantifying the Effect of Medical Provider Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities on Outcomes for Spaceflight Using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

In order to enable the future of long-duration deep space exploration we must confront the uncertainty in medical risk. Limitations of communication, resupply, and evacuation in deep space will require a high degree of crew autonomy and accurate risk assessment will be critical to ensure adequate crew training and medical system design. To address this, NASA’s Human Research Program Exploration Medical Capability Element has developed the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces Tool (IMPACT). IMPACT is a suite of tools that can provide evidence-based, data-driven trade space assessments between available medical resources in the mass- and volume-constrained environment of a deep space exploration vehicle. In the current model, medical conditions either can or cannot be treated based on the availability of medical system resources and equipment. However, medical outcomes often depend just as much on the knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA) of the provider operating the system. This paper presents a method for modeling and quantifying the effect of medical officer KSA on medically relevant mission risk outcomes during spaceflight.

capabilities↗

Assessing Long-Term Health (LTH) Outcomes in Astronauts

NASA has linked potential Long-Term Health (LTH) risks of astronauts to their spaceflight experience, including the effects of space radiation, microgravity, and stressors such as isolation, sleep deprivation, and stress. Therefore, assessing the LTH outcomes for astronauts exposed to these hazards becomes a critical investigation in ensuring any deleterious effects are minimal. Prior research conducted into LTH outcomes of astronauts has not revealed increases in non-accidental mortality rates when compared to the U.S. general population, analog healthy cohorts, and professional athletes. One study did report an increased incidence of non-fatal cardiovascular disease events (Hazard Ratio=2.41, 95% Confidence Interval 1.26 to 4.63). Additional evidence indicates that astronauts may have increases in incidences of melanoma, prostate, and hematologic cancers, though the former is consistent with rates observed among aircraft pilots and the latter two are likely caused by detection bias due to increased screening on former astronauts.

long term health↗

NASA’s Student Airborne Science Activation for Minority Serving Institutions: Inaugural Program, Educational Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

The NASA Student Airborne Science Activation (SaSa) for Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs) held its inaugural summer research program for early career undergraduates interested in the Geosciences. SaSa is a NASA Science Activation funded 8-week summer internship program. Twenty-four first- and second-year undergraduates from MSIs across the U.S. participated in the summer program - June 6 to July 29, 2022. Students had the opportunity to gain hands-on research experience in all components of an airborne science campaign including flying on-board a NASA research aircraft to collect atmospheric measurements. Students conducted independent research projects related to the atmosphere, ocean, and geosciences that feed into NASA’s broader Earth Science Division’s and Decadal Survey goals using air quality, meteorological, and oceanic measurements from surface, airborne, and satellite-based observations. The program split its time between partner institution, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Wallops Island, Virginia. Students also made site visits at partner institutions, including: Hampton University, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Morgan State University, Howard University, and Coppin State University and attended lectures from visiting faculty and NASA Subject Matter Experts. Students were guided on their research projects by near-peer graduate mentors, SaSa program leadership, co-Is at partner institutions, and NASA scientists to address two major research themes: 1) how human-caused air pollution has human and environmental implications, and 2) how large-scale meteorological factors influence local weather conditions. Students sorted into research groups, based on sub-discipline areas in the Geosciences, including: “Clouds, Aerosols and Radiation”, “Meteorology and Planetary Boundary Layer”, “Air Quality: Particle Pollution and Trace Gases”, and “Air-Water-Land Interface”. Their research was presented as 3-minute lightning talks and in-person poster presentations at a close-out event at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The students’ inter- and trans-disciplinary research experiences centered in the use of multiple ground, airborne, and satellite remote sensing NASA Earth Science Division assets. Providing a unique experience aligned to recognize the societal benefits that NASA contributes in the areas of resource management, air quality monitoring and policy decisions, energy and weather predictions, and research on the Earth’s climate. The SaSa program aims to increase the number of students from MSIs that identify as underrepresented or underserved individuals in the Geosciences discipline, Earth System Science graduate programs, and the NASA workforce. A summary of the summer research program, educational, scientific, and programmatic outcomes, as well as lessons learned will be presented.

NASA↗

The effects of outcome and process feedback

A study was conducted to examine the effects of process and outcome feedback on performance during a skill acquisition phase and a transfer test phase. The research also examined the role of two moderators: self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation. Subjects were college students participating for course credit. The task involved using a computerized simulation of the Space Shuttle's Remote Manipulation System (RMS). Results provided evidence of the beneficial effects of process feedback during skill acquisition. Results also provided evidence that self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation moderate the effects of feedback type on performance.

Johnson, Debra Steele↗

Hydrocode predictions of collisional outcomes: Effects of target size

Traditionally, laboratory impact experiments, designed to simulate asteroid collisions, attempted to establish a predictive capability for collisional outcomes given a particular set of initial conditions. Unfortunately, laboratory experiments are restricted to using targets considerably smaller than the modelled objects. It is therefore necessary to develop some methodology for extrapolating the extensive experimental results to the size regime of interest. Results are reported obtained through the use of two dimensional hydrocode based on 2-D SALE and modified to include strength effects and the fragmentation equations. The hydrocode was tested by comparing its predictions for post-impact fragment size distributions to those observed in laboratory impact experiments.

Ryan, Eileen V.↗