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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Preparations for Integrating Space-Based Total Lightning Observations into Forecast Operations

NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been a leader in collaborating with the United States National Weather Service (NWS) offices to integrate ground-based total lightning (intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground) observations into the real-time operational environment. For much of these collaborations, the emphasis has been on training, dissemination of data to the NWS AWIPS system, and focusing on the utility of these data in the warning decision support process. A shift away from this paradigm has occurred more recently for several reasons. For one, SPoRT's collaborations have expanded to new partners, including emergency managers and the aviation community. Additionally, and most importantly, is the impending launch of the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This has led to collaborative efforts to focus on additional forecast needs, new data displays, develop training for GLM uses based on the lessons learned from ground-based lightning mapping arrays, and ways to better relate total lightning data to other meteorological parameters. This presentation will focus on these efforts to prepare the operational end user community for GLM with an eye towards sharing lessons learned as EUMETSAT prepares for the Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager. This will focus on both software and training needs. In particular, SPoRT has worked closely with the Meteorological Development Laboratory to create the total lightning tracking tool. This software allows for NWS forecasters to manually track storms of interest and display a time series trend of observations. This tool also has been expanded to work on any gridded data set allowing for easy visual comparisons of multiple parameters in addition to total lightning. A new web display has been developed for the ground-based observations that can be easily extended to satellite observations. This paves the way for new collaborations outside of the NWS, both domestically and internationally, as the web display will be functional on PCs and mobile devices. Furthermore, SPoRT has helped developed the software plug-in to visualize GLM data. Examples using the official GLM proxy product will be used to provide a glimpse as to what real-time GLM and likely MTG-LI data will be in the near future.

GLM↗
NASA NTRS1982

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 3

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 3 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 3 compares flight plans developed on the Suitland forecast with actual data observed by the aircraft (and averaged over 10 degree segments). The results show that the average difference between the forecast and observed wind speed is 9 kts. without considering direction, and the average difference in the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the observed wind is 13 kts. - both indicating that the Suitland forecast underestimates the wind speeds. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error is 30.1 kts. The average absolute difference in direction between the forecast and observed wind is 26 degrees and the temperature difference is 3 degree Centigrade. These results indicate that the forecast model as well as the verifying analysis used to develop comparison flight plans in Tasks 1 and 2 is a limiting factor and that the average potential fuel savings or penalty are up to 3.6 percent depending on the direction of flight.

Keitz, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Final results of an experiment in operational forecasting of sea breeze thunderstorms using a mesoscale numerical model

Sea breeze thunderstorms during quiescent synoptic conductions account for 40 percent of Florida rainfall, and are the dominant feature of April-October weather at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). An effort is presently made to assess the feasibility of a mesoscale numerical model in improving the point-specific thunderstorm forecasting accuracy at the KSC, in the 2-12 hour time frame. Attention is given to the Applied Regional Atmospheric Modeling System.

Lyons, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Use and Assessment of Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery in NWS Operational Forecasting Environments

NOAA's Satellite Proving Grounds have established partnerships between product developers and NWS WFOs for the evaluation of new capabilities from the GOES-R and JPSS satellite systems. SPoRT has partnered with various WFOs to evaluate multispectral (RGB) products from MODIS, VIIRS and Himawari/AHI to prepare for GOES-R/ABI. Assisted through partnerships with GINA, UW/CIMSS, NOAA, and NASA Direct Broadcast capabilities.

VIIRS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger. In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals. Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential. Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input. New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired. Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams. Consistent, extensive and quantitative model validation is required to assess scientific advancements and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations. Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines. Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.

solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRS2003

Use of MODIS/AIRS Direct Broadcast Data for Short Term Weather Forecasting

Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The key to this success is access to real time data and integration of the data and products into weather decision support systems. NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program has demonstrated this capability with MODIS and AIRS data through several local NWS Forecast Offices. This presentation will describe the use of real time EOS Direct Broadcast (DB) data in local weather forecast operations, highlight the utility of real time data from the EOS DB systems, and provide insight into how EOS DB data can have the most impact on the weather forecast community.

Jedlovec, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2003

Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗