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DOE OSTI2023

Data Validation Experiments with a Computer-Generated Imagery Dataset for International Nuclear Safeguards

Computer vision models have great potential as tools for international nuclear safeguards verification activities, but off-the-shelf models require fine-tuning through transfer learning to detect relevant objects. Because open-source examples of safeguards-relevant objects are rare, and to evaluate the potential of synthetic training data for computer vision, we present the Limbo dataset. Limbo includes both real and computer-generated images of uranium hexafluoride containers for training computer vision models. Here, we generated these images iteratively based on results from data validation experiments that are detailed here. The findings from these experiments are applicable both for the safeguards community and the broader community of computer vision research using synthetic data.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance evaluation of cosmic ray muon trajectory estimation algorithms

Muons, being elementary particles with minimal interaction with nuclear materials and abundant at sea level, have sparked interest in utilizing them for imaging various applications, such as mining [Borselli et al., Sci. Rep. 12, 22329 (2022)], volcano imaging [Nagamine et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A, 356, 585(1995)], and underground tunnel detection [Guardincerri et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 2133 (2017)]. Recently, their use in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification has gained attention, particularly in cargo screening for nuclear waste smuggling [Baesso et al., J. Instrum. 9, C10041 (2014)], source localization [L. J. Schultz et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A 519, 687 (2004)], and locating nuclear fuel debris in reactors [Borozdin et al., Phys. Rev. Let. 109, 152501 (2012)]. However, the resolution of muon image reconstruction techniques is limited due to multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) within the target object. To achieve robust muon tomography, it is crucial to develop efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms that can model the MCS process accurately and estimate the most probable trajectory of muons as they pass through the target object. To address this limitation, in this study, a novel algorithmic approach utilizing the Bayesian probability theory and Gaussian approximation of MCS is chosen. Different energy levels, materials, and target sizes were considered in the evaluations. The results demonstrate that the Generalized Muon Trajectory Estimation (GMTE) algorithm offers significant improvements over currently used algorithms. Across all test scenarios, the GMTE algorithm demonstrated ~50% and 38% increase in precision compared to Straight Line Path (SLP) and Point of Closest Approach (PoCA) algorithms, respectively. Furthermore, it exhibited 10%–35% and 10%–15% increases in muon flux utilization for high and medium Z materials, respectively, compared to the PoCA algorithm. In conclusion, the extensive simulations confirm the enhanced performance and efficiency of the GMTE algorithm, offering improved resolution and reduced measurement time for cosmic ray muon imaging compared to the current SLP and PoCA algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

New Experiments for Detecting Emissions from Fission

Ensuring that nuclear science and technology is used solely for peaceful purposes is one of the most pressing challenges facing our society. The Consortium for Monitoring, Technology, and Verification (MTV) mission is to help meet this challenge by providing advanced technology and trained talent for careers in nuclear security and nonproliferation. The study of nuclear fission is one area of interest in the MTV. We are performing new experiments for the characterization of neutron and gamma ray emissions from fission fragments. These emissions are signatures for the detection and characterization of nuclear materials. To perform these experiments, we have developed Fission Sphere (FS-3), an array of forty organic stilbene detectors operated in time-coincidence. The FS-3 is used to measure the prompt emissions of neutrons and gamma rays from Cf-252 spontaneous fission. These new data will be used to validate physics-based prediction codes, including CGMF and FREYA, and will be useful in future ENDF and ENSDF evaluations. This paper will present results from the first experiments using FS-3 and a Cf-252 spontaneous fission source. It will compare the experimental results with predictions from theory and Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we will describe the correlations among energy, multiplicity, and angles of emitted particles. We will also discuss the application of these correlations in multiplicity counting techniques, which are widely used in nuclear safeguards.

Pozzi, S. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants’ runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12–24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

TRIPWIRE – Deployment and Field-Testing Report

TRIPWIRE is a multi-modal system for containment verification in inaccessible radiological and nuclear waste repositories. The sensing modes are focused on radiation, electromagnetic and vibration. The radiation detection component has been developed over the last three years at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This development has focused on the fabrication, characterization, and testing of long-length (greater than 10-m) plastic scintillating fibers. This fiscal year, the focus of TRIPWIRE has been on field testing and demonstration of the radiation sensing component in a relevant environment. After reviewing the static storage facilities at INL, the Radioactive Scrap Waste Facility (RSWF) south storage area outside the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) was selected due to its periodic changes in configuration and inventory. This report summarizes the research outcomes for the work performed in fiscal year (FY) 2023.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active Neutron Interrogation as a Method for Verification of the Absence of Special Nuclear Material in Arms Control Dismantlement

The next step in arms control reductions will deal with both strategic and non-strategic weapons, presenting new and hard challenges for verification. One verification approach that might be used in support of these reductions is the concept of deferred verification, which forgoes inspections at sensitive nuclear sites and relies on an inspection regime having access to the open segment of a State's nuclear sector, in "monitored transfer zones." A component of this approach is the anticipated need for an instrument suite capable of detecting well-shielded highly-enriched uranium or plutonium where it isn't supposed to be. This specific need was recently identified by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in an enabling operating concept they call "contain and dispose." At the foundation of this approach is the idea that items declared as "not nuclear" are, by definition, not treaty limited and are thus "fair-game" for inspection and questioning. Active Neutron Interrogation (ANI), using beta-delayed neutron emissions as the signature for special nuclear material (SNM) detection, is a promising method to address this challenge. The method is quick, has high sensitivity and high specificity for detecting shielded SNM, is robust against changing background radiation environments, is robust against the presence of unknown shielding, and avoids the use of gamma-ray spectrometry which may introduce complications due to the potential release of sensitive information. This paper will present recent research activities exploring technical aspects of using ANI as a FAIRGAME verification method and discuss future prospects and research needs

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demonstrating and Expanding DRiFT’s Helium-3 Detector Response Capabilities [Slides]

Helium-3 tubes are an efficient way to detect neutrons after they have thermalized by polyethylene. They are often arranged in rings to perform coincidence counting. Applications include nuclear safeguards, treaty verification, and emergency response. DRiFT has the ability to simulate pile-up, room return, and end effects. A new feature determines real and accidental correlated counts. The next steps include DRiFT 2.0 released as executable, continued demonstration of gas module capabilities, and semiconductor module under a development.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of 17 N as a time-tagged neutron source for calibration of large antineutrino detectors

Large antineutrino detectors hold the potential for remote nuclear reactor monitoring and discovery, which is of great interest for nonproliferation and treaty verification applications. Correlated-particle calibration sources are especially useful for large-volume designs based on detection of inverse beta-decay events, as the timing information of the coincident particles improves background rejection and event reconstruction. 17 N is a promising calibration source since it emits beta-correlated delayed neutrons and can be produced relatively easily using high-energy neutrons. In this work, we examine the feasibility of 17 N as a time-tagged calibration source for large antineutrino detectors. 17 N was produced using a DT neutron generator from a water sample enriched in 17 O, and the observed production rates were found to be consistent with previous measurements of the 17 O(n,p) 17 N reaction cross-section. As a result, time-tagging of 17 N delayed neutrons is demonstrated via beta-neutron coincidence measurements conducted using a specialized beta detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiation Detection Technologies

When governing bodies seek to reduce the spread and development of nuclear material and weapons, arms control and safeguards technologies play an important role in preventing proliferation within a state that has already developed a nuclear weapon. Arms control treaties work to control the development, production, stockpiling, proliferation, distribution, or the usage of a certain weapon type or delivery system. Treaty guidelines are met using combinations of monitoring, detection, and verification technologies. 1 To verify compliance, a country must determine if the activities of another country are within the limits and obligations established by the treaty. A verifiable treaty contains an interlocking web of constraints and provisions designed to deter cheating, to make cheating more complicated and more expensive, or to make its detection timelier. In the past, the U.S. has deemed treaties to be effectively verifiable if there is confidence that significant violations can be detected in time to respond and offset any threat that the violation may create for the U.S.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A propagation-based fault detection and discrimination method and the optimization of sensor deployment

Industrial processes can be affected by faults having a serious impact on operation when not promptly detected and diagnosed. Here in this paper, a propagation-based fault detection and discrimination(PFDD) method is proposed to develop a strategy for fault diagnosis while in the design phase of a system. The PFDD method constructs the system model using the Integrated System Fault Analysis(ISFA) technique. Based on the system model, the propagation of hardware and software faults are simulated qualitatively. Given the results of the simulation, the process by which a fault propagates can be characterized using the qualitative features of system variables including the deviation of the system variables from their expected values, the variation of the system variables over time, and the order in which each variable is influenced during the propagation of the fault. The strategy by which a fault can be detected and discriminated is defined using those features. The PFDD method supports the detection and discrimination of faults in both steady states and transient states. Based on the PFDD method, the optimization of sensor deployment in a system is discussed. A brute force algorithm is developed to examine the system’s capability at diagnosing faults and the cost of sensor deployment for all possible configurations of sensors. The optimal sensor deployment strategy can be derived accordingly. However, the brute force method is only applicable to small-scale systems due to its high computational cost. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize sensor deployment in large-scale systems. The PFDD and sensor deployment optimization methods are applied to the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) for verification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Radionuclide measurements of the international monitoring system

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a unique global network of sensors, tuned to measure various phenomenology, with the common goal of detecting a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world. One component of this network collects measurements of radioactive particulates and gases (collectively known as radionuclides) present in the atmosphere; through this, compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) can be verified. The radionuclide sub-network consists of 120 sensors across 80 locations, supported by 16 measurement laboratories. All radionuclide stations make use of a form of γ-ray spectroscopy to measure radionuclides from samples; this remains largely unchanged since the network was first established 25 years ago. Advances in sampling and spectroscopy systems can yield improvements to the sensitivity of the network to detect a nuclear explosion. This paper summarises the status of the IMS radionuclide network, the current suite of technology used and reviews new technology that could enhance future iterations, potentially improving the verification power of the IMS.

Goodwin, Matthew A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted identification of potential sources of bias in measurements of prompt-fission neutron spectra

Unrecognized sources of uncertainty (USU) can bias the reported mean and/or covariance of experimental nuclear data. These biases, in turn, can propagate through evaluated nuclear data to application simulations or may poorly inform nuclear theory that is fitted to the experimental data. Such unknown sources of bias must be tied to the inherent physical constituents of the measurements such as the characteristics of a detector response or a background reduction technique. Here, in this article, a sparse Bayesian learning model is used to support experts in their efforts to identify and characterize USU in experimental prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) for spontaneous fissioning of 252 Cf by linking observed biases to features of the measurement system. Three different bias components were found. The first acts as a verification case for the algorithm as it identifies a bias coming from a well-known source related to the use of 6 Li in the neutron detection system. The second two cases demonstrate how this method can benefit the evaluation of experimental nuclear data by identifying, quantifying, and relating unknown biases to potential causes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing high fidelity multi-component models to facilitate safeguards at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants

We report that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors routinely carry out environmental sampling (ES) as a verification method. Collection of environmental swipe samples at various locations in Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Facilities (GCEPs) is an important process in detecting misuse of a declared facility and possibly the existence of undeclared nuclear material. These samples are measured for isotopic composition in uranium containing particles by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) or Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Even though ES is highly effective in detecting the absolute value of enrichments and their deviations from the declared values, it cannot explain the cause of those changes. Several potential explanations can serve as possibilities for particles detected above or other than the declared enrichment. These include normal and non-malicious events such as the design of the enrichment cascades, unintentional failures of the machines, or overshoot during startup of a cascade. It can also be the result of deliberate misuse by the facility operators. The primary objective of this work is to understand how these factors affect the enrichments produced by a cascade and quantify anticipated multi-isotopic concentrations for each case. The following methodology is employed to determine signatures at a particular facility. 1) Utilize a new two-dimensional multi-component diffusion code to obtain centrifuge performance data and use that information to design and perform cascade analysis. Compare and contrast the results with previous 1-D radially averaged solutions from the Pancake code. 2) Design a GCEP cascade with the production goal of 19.75% 235 U for each set of machine data above. Investigate two cascade scenarios that include enrichment of natural uranium (NU) feed to 19.75% 235U in a single cascade compared to a two-step process of NU to 5% and then 5% to 19.75%. 3) Simulate the intentional vs. unintentional off-normal scenarios in the cascades to assess the differences in isotopic concentrations. A non-ideal squared-off cascade model developed at the University of Virginia is used to calculate flow rates and isotopic concentrations of the process gas. The analysis is performed using the Rome machine model operated at 600 m/s rotor speed. The upper and lower bounds of normal and abnormal enrichments in a typical facility are used in conjunction with ES results to understand the root causes of such observations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prototype for Unclassified Algorithm

Continuing previous efforts to investigate and develop the Unclassified Radioisotope Algorithm, the goal of the FY19-FY20 effort was to develop a prototype detector system which uses the algorithm to confirm warhead attributes related to the presence of either weapons grade plutonium (WGPu) or highly enriched uranium (HEU). The final deliverable is a prototype attribute measurement system built with common, commercially available gamma radiation detector components, capable of confirming the presence of specific, complex radioactive sources of interest, without the collection and storage of gamma energy spectra. This is accomplished by processing each gamma pulse as it is received, applying weight values based on the energy and incrementing or decrementing scalar counters which can be compared with expected values to determine if the measured source is consistent with WGPu or HEU. This report documents the design of the prototype system as well as the development of the algorithm and performance testing results. While the previously conceptualized, simple algorithm resulted in a prohibitive amount of false positives, the goal for a simple attribute measurement system capable of verifying Ba-133 and Ra-226 (weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium surrogate testing sources) at over 95% accuracy with sub 5% false positive rate was demonstrated.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Inversion Algorithms for Scientific Data Analysis [Slides]

Accurate subsurface characterization is crucial for all subsurface energy exploration. Accurate characterization of uncertain subsurface properties is also critical for monitoring storage of CO 2 , estimating pathways of subsurface contaminant transport, and monitoring potential nuclear explosions for treaty verification. This research will advance our world-leading subsurface sensing capabilities that are crucial for LANL missions in energy security (geothermal energy, oil/gas resource exploration, geologic carbon storage) and nuclear security (facility monitoring, detonation detection).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Proliferation Detection via Acoustic Monitoring of Pyroprocessing Equipment and Related Systems

In support of nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation, this effort is leveraging acoustic and seismic sensors to advance detection of pyroprocessing activities. Pyroprocessing, or electrochemical processing, is a method of separating irradiated nuclear fuel into its actinide and fission product components, enabling the reuse of fuel materials and reducing the radiotoxicity of the remaining waste. Verification and accountability in the process poses several challenges because of the high radiation environment and the presence of material holdup through the facility. Irregular or unaccounted-for equipment operation can signify diversion or misuse of critical materials. Acoustic and seismic sensors offer the capability to identify periods of equipment operation and help verify adherence to accountancy records.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tracer Gas Model Development and Verification in PFLOTRAN

Tracer gases, whether they are chemical or isotopic in nature, are useful tools in examining the flow and transport of gaseous or volatile species in the underground. One application is using detection of short-lived argon and xenon radionuclides to monitor for underground nuclear explosions. However, even chemically inert species, such as the noble gases, have bene observed to exhibit non-conservative behavior when flowing through porous media containing certain materials, such as zeolites, due to gas adsorption processes. This report details the model developed, implemented, and tested in the open source and massively parallel subsurface flow and transport simulator PFLOTRAN for future use in modeling the transport of adsorbing tracer gases.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗