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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.

Kirschbaum, Dalia Bach↗
NASA NTRS2018

Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting

Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere’s density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 μm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth’s response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Radiation Exposure at Aviation Flight Altitudes Using the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

Exposure to ionizing radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) at aircraft flight altitudes can have an adverse effect on human health. Although airline crews are classified as radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in most countries, their level of exposure is unquantified and undocumented throughout the duration of their career. As such, there is a need to assess pilot ionizing radiation exposure. The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS), a real-time global, physics-based model is used to assess such exposure. The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) measurement dataset consists of high latitude, high altitude, and long-duration aircraft flights between 2013-2021. Here, we characterize radiation exposure at aviation flight altitudes using the NAIRAS model and compare with over 800 flight trajectories from the ARMAS flight measurement inventory.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) With ISS Measurements

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) is a sophisticated physics-based model that has been providing real-time global predictions of cosmic radiation exposure, pertinent to both galactic and solar sources, to air travelers for a decade. The utility of NAIRAS, however, extends beyond the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. The recently developed NAIRAS 3.0 version demonstrates an expansion of its domain to the space radiation environment. This extension incorporates an additional trapped inner belt proton source, coupled with altitude-dependent and rigidity-dependent geomagnetic shielding for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) protons. The latest version of NAIRAS operates in two modes: real-time global predictions of the atmospheric radiation environment and a user-specified run-on-request service for global dosimetric calculations or predictions of dosimetric and particle flux quantities along user-uploaded flight path. It is available to the public at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In this work, we present the validation exercises that have been conducted using the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) onboard the International Space Station (ISS), thereby establishing NAIRAS's efficacy in predicting space radiation exposure. As such, NAIRAS 3.0 holds significant potential for human safety and technological advancement in aerospace travel and exploration.

Daniel Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Radiation Exposure at Aviation Flight Altitudes Using the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

Exposure to ionizing radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles (SEP) at aircraft flight altitudes can have an adverse effect on human health. Although airline crews are classified as radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in most countries, their level of exposure is unquantified and undocumented throughout the duration of their career. As such, there is a need to assess pilot ionizing radiation exposure. The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS), a real-time, global, physics-based model is used to assess such exposure. The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) measurement dataset consists of high latitude, high altitude, and long-duration aircraft flights between 2013-2023. Here, we characterize radiation exposure at aviation flight altitudes using the NAIRAS model and compare with over 1000 flight trajectories from the ARMAS flight measurement inventory.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of a SEP Event on Astronauts Doing a Spacewalk As Computed By the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) is a sophisticated physics-based model that has been providing real-time global predictions of cosmic radiation exposure, pertinent to both galactic and solar sources, to air travelers for a decade. The utility of NAIRAS, however, extends beyond the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. The recently developed NAIRAS 3.0 version demonstrates an expansion of its domain to the space radiation environment. This extension incorporates an additional trapped inner belt proton source, coupled with altitude-dependent and rigidity-dependent geomagnetic shielding for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) protons. The latest version of NAIRAS operates in two modes: real-time global predictions of the atmospheric radiation environment and a user-specified run-on-request service for global dosimetric calculations or predictions of dosimetric and particle flux quantities along user-uploaded flight path. It is available to the public at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In this work, we present the computations of the dose in the ISS vicinity during the SEP event of August 8, 2023; which happened a day before a scheduled spacewalk. We demonstrate that astronauts would not have suffered a dose equivalent in excess of 1 mSv if the event happened a day later. As such, NAIRAS 3.0 holds significant potential for human safety and technological advancement in aerospace travel and exploration.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Recent Improvements of the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) model is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure now running in real-time and in run on request (RoR) mode at NASA Goddard’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center. NAIRAS was recently updated to extend the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model to include ultra-heavy nuclei (Z=29-92, A=64-238) for single event effects assessment from high linear energy transfer processes, to expand the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity model to use the either the TS05 (Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2005), T89 (Tsyganenko, 1989), or the International Geomagnetic Reference Field model (IGRF) magnetic field models, and to improve the solar energetic particle (SEP) proton spectral fitting to better represent relativist protons during ground level enhancements. Here, we evaluate the recent NAIRAS improvements for a range of conditions. First, we demonstrate the effect of choice in magnetic field model to the NAIRAS computed dosimetric quantities for a United States domestic flight and a transatlantic flight during the May 11, 2024 SEP event. Second, the effect of ultra-heavy ions on SEP dose rate is examined for two different flight trajectories during the top SEP events. Lastly, the effect of ultra-heavy ions on NAIRAS computed GCR dose rates at solar minimum and maximum is demonstrated.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRS1984

Use of satellite soundings and imagery for nowcasting and very-short-range forecasting

Examples of GOES-East satellite imagery and sounding channel information are used to show how atmospheric behavior in the vicinity of intense mesoscale weather events can be analyzed. Mesoscale spatial and temporal information on atmospheric thermal structure and moisture distribution can be determined using satellite sounding and multispectral image data. Clouds and cloud patterns in a satellite image or animated series of images represent the integrated effect of ongoing dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. When information from satellite data is combined with radar, surface and upper air observations, important processes in storm development can be better understood.

Purdom, J. F. W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The real-time use of wind profilers in nowcasting

The program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS) has been using wind profile data in experimental forecast applications for over two years, mostly in the form of real-time color displays on the PROFS forecast workstation. The most ambitious test of the workstation to date, the 1985 PROFS Real-Time Experiment (RT-85), ran from 15 May to 23 August, 1985. The use of wind profiler products during this and previous experiments is described. Data from the experimental profiler network in Colorado and from the profiler in Oklahoma are in the form of hourly averages. Arriving data frequently contain errors whose origins range from interference by aircraft in the beams to highway truck traffic. Most of the irregularities are apparent through visual inspection of profiler wind observations plotted on a time-height cross section, but this method of quality control is inadequate if the intended uses of the data involve numerical calculations.

Smith, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

AOIPS/2 - An interactive system to process, analyze, and display meteorological data sets for nowcasting

A description of AOIPS/2, an interactive hardware and software system to process, integrate, and display meteorological data is presented. The AOIPS/2 objectives and functional specifications are given. The hardware system architecture and work stations and the software architecture and special features are described. A summary is given of the software system and its main menu.

Hasler, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

Goodman, S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Nowcasting Aircraft Icing Conditions in the Presence of Multilayered Clouds Using Meteorological Satellite Data

Cloud properties retrieved from satellite data are used to diagnose aircraft icing threat in single layer and multilayered ice-over-liquid clouds. The algorithms are being applied in real time to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data over the CONUS with multilayer data available over the eastern CONUS. METEOSAT data are also used to retrieve icing conditions over western Europe. The icing algorithm s methodology and validation are discussed along with future enhancements and plans. The icing risk product is available in image and digital formats on NASA Langley s Cloud and Radiation Products web site, http://wwwangler. larc.nasa.gov.

Spangenberg, Douglas A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Nowcasting Thunderstorm Anvil Clouds Over KSC/CCAFS

Electrified thunderstorm anvil clouds extend the threat of natural and triggered lightning to space launch and landing operations far beyond the immediate vicinity of thunderstorm cells. The deep convective updrafts of thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapor, super-cooled water droplets and ice crystals into the upper troposphere, forming anvil clouds, which are then carried downstream by the prevailing winds in the anvil formation layer. Electrified anvil clouds have been observed over the space launch and landing facilities of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), emanating from thunderstorm activity more than 200 km distant. Space launch commit criteria and flight rules require launch and landing vehicles to avoid penetration of the non-transparent portion of anvil clouds. The life cycles of 167 anvil clouds over the Florida peninsula and its coastal waters were documented using GOES-8 visible imagery on 50 anvil case days during the months of May through July 2001. Anvil clouds were found to propagate at the speed and direction of upper-tropospheric winds in the layer from 300-to-l50 mb, approximately 9.4 km to 14 km, with an effective average transport lifetime of 2 hours and a standard deviation of approximately 30 minutes. The effective lifetime refers to the time required for the nontransparent leading edge of an anvil cloud to reach its maximum extent before beginning to dissipate. The propagation and lifetime information was incorporated into the design, construction and implementation of an objective short-range anvil forecast tool based on upper-air observations, for use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System within the Range Weather Operations facility of the 45th Weather Squadron at CCAFS and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at Johnson Space Center.

Short, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗