Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Nowcasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

A Nowcasting Approach for Low Earth Orbit Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings Within the Convective Environment

Low Earth orbit (LEO) hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant yet untapped potential for characterizing thermodynamic environments of convective initiation and ongoing convection. While LEO soundings are of value to weather forecasters, the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving thermodynamics of the convective environment is limited. We have developed a novel nowcasting methodology to extend snapshots of LEO soundings forward in time up to six hours to create a product available within National Weather Service systems for user assessment. Our methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite observing time to generate future soundings of temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. The soundings are based on NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) retrievals from the Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 satellite platforms. The tendencies of derived convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) are evaluated against gridded, hourly accumulated rainfall obtained from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) observations for 24 hand-selected cases over the Contiguous United States. Areas with forecast increases in CAPE (reduced CIN) are shown to be associated with areas of precipitation. The increases in CAPE and decreases in CIN are largest for areas that have the heaviest precipitation and are statistically significant compared to areas without precipitation. These results imply that adiabatic parcel advection of LEO satellite sounding snapshots forward in time are capable of identifying convective initiation over an expanded temporal scale compared to soundings used only during the LEO satellite overpass time.

North America↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosols are critical for “nowcasting” climate

Here, aerosols are a critical part of the earth’s energy balance and are changing rapidly. Monitoring Earth’s energy budget, clouds and aerosols with a coherent observing system from the ground, air and space, coupled with predictive models is necessary for timely, updated climate ‘nowcasts.’

Gettelman, Andrew [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
NASA NTRS1973

Impact of nowcasting on the production and processing of agricultural crops

The value was studied of improved weather information and weather forecasting to farmers, growers, and agricultural processing industries in the United States. The study was undertaken to identify the production and processing operations that could be improved with accurate and timely information on changing weather patterns. Estimates were then made of the potential savings that could be realized with accurate information about the prevailing weather and short term forecasts for up to 12 hours. This weather information has been termed nowcasting. The growing, marketing, and processing operations of the twenty most valuable crops in the United States were studied to determine those operations that are sensitive to short-term weather forecasting. Agricultural extension specialists, research scientists, growers, and representatives of processing industries were consulted and interviewed. The value of the crops included in this survey and their production levels are given. The total value for crops surveyed exceeds 24 billion dollars and represents more than 92 percent of total U.S. crop value.

Dancer, W. S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Statistical severe storm nowcasting comparison of VAS and Rawinsonde soundings

The statistical severe storm nowcasting technique using upper air soundings (VAS or radiosonde) is translated to the IBM McIDAS system. The severe storm information content of Visible infrared spin scan radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) and rawinsonde sounding data is compared. The contours of the likelihood of severe storms based only upon upper air VAS and rawinsonde data are shown, as well as the outlook based upon surface data, radar, operational computer models, and other data sources.

Keller, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A proposed microburst nowcasting procedure using single-Doppler radar

Thirty-one microburst-producing storms from northweast Colorado were studied using single and multiple Doppler radar for the purpose of identifying radar signatures that indicated the development of a downdraft capable of producing a microburst. Descending reflectivity cores, increasing radial convergence within cloud, rotation, and reflectivity notches, were found to be microburst precursors, appearing typically 2-6 min prior to initial surface outflow. Three conceptual models have been drawn, based on the 31 events, to summarize the radar signatures of importance in low, moderate, and high-reflectivity microburst-producing storms. A forecaster-computer environment is proposed to allow the forecaster to readily view radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity information in both unprocessed and analyzed form. Use of multiimage radar displays and time-height profiles of quantitative radar estimates of reflectivity and radial shear are suggested to provide an environment where rapid progress can be made in developing techniques to nowcast microbursts.

Roberts, Rita D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Short-range forecasting and nowcasting, using a simple, isentropic prediction model

A numerical advection model which can be run on a local computer in a real-time forecast environment is described. This isentropic forecast model provides the local forecast office with easy access to temporally and spatially detailed estimates of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and wind field changes between 12-h rawinsonde observations. Case studies are presented based on the use of the model to predict the preconvective environment in spring and summer situations. Short-term forecasts of midtropospheric static stability patterns and stability index changes are traced for several severe storm events with and without the inclusion of surface data observed during the day. Forecast images of VAS low- and midlevel moisture fields and vertical moisture gradients are compared with the observations to determine the utility of the combined model/VAS imagery as a nowcasting guide.

Petersen, Ralph A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Practical Application of NASA-Langley Advanced Satellite Products to In-Flight Icing Nowcasts

Experimental satellite-based icing products developed by the NASA Langley Research Center provide new tools to identify the locations of icing and its intensity. Since 1997, research forecasters at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have been helping to guide the NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter aircraft into and out of clouds and precipitation for the purpose of characterizing in-flight icing conditions, including supercooled large drops, the accretions that result from such encounters and their effect on aircraft performance. Since the winter of 2003-04, the NASA Langley satellite products have been evaluated as part of this process, and are being considered as an input to NCAR s automated Current Icing Potential (CIP) products. This has already been accomplished for a relatively straightforward icing event, but many icing events have much more complex characteristics, providing additional challenges to all icing diagnosis tools. In this paper, four icing events with a variety of characteristics will be examined, with a focus on the NASA Langley satellite retrievals that were available in real time and their implications for icing nowcasting and potential applications in CIP.

Bernstein, Ben C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety

There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Integration of Satellite-Derived Cloud Phase, Cloud Top Height, and Liquid Water Path into an Operational Aircraft Icing Nowcasting System

Operational products used by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to alert pilots of hazardous icing provide nowcast and short-term forecast estimates of the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets. The Current Icing Product (CIP) system employs basic satellite-derived information, including a cloud mask and cloud top temperature estimates, together with multiple other data sources to produce a gridded, three-dimensional, hourly depiction of icing probability and severity. Advanced satellite-derived cloud products developed at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) provide a more detailed description of cloud properties (primarily at cloud top) compared to the basic satellite-derived information used currently in CIP. Cloud hydrometeor phase, liquid water path, cloud effective temperature, and cloud top height as estimated by the LaRC algorithms are into the CIP fuzzy logic scheme and a confidence value is determined. Examples of CIP products before and after the integration of the LaRC satellite-derived products will be presented at the conference.

Haggerty, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2008

Nowcasting in the GPM Era

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance global precipitation measurements from a constellation of dedicated and operational microwave sensors. The GPM concept centers on the deployment of a Core Spacecraft in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit at 65deg inclination carrying a dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer (GMI) with high-frequency capabilities to serve as a precipitation physics observatory and calibration standard for the constellation radiometers. The baseline GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise conical-scanning microwave imagers (e.g., GMI, SSMIS, AMSR, MIS, MADRAS, GPM-Brazil) augmented with cross-track microwave temperaturelhumidity sounders (e.g., MHS, ATMS) over land. In addition to the Core Satellite, the GPM Mission will contribute a second GMI to be flown in a low-inclination (approx.40deg) non-Sun-synchronous orbit to improve near real-time monitoring of hurricanes. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals aimed at (1) advancing the knowledge of the global waterlenergy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with opportunities for additional partners in satellite constellation and ground validation activities. Within the framework of the inter-governmental Group ob Earth Observations (GEO) and Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), GPM has been identified as a cornerstone for the Precipitation Constellation (PC) being developed under the auspices of Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). The GPM Core Observatory is scheduled for launch in 201 3, followed by the launch of the GPM Low-Inclination Observatory in 2014. An overview of the GPM mission status, measurement capabilities, ground validation plans, and anticipated contributions to scientific research and societal applications with a special emphasis on nowcasting will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Nowcasting in the GPM Era

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance global precipitation measurements from a constellation of dedicated and operational microwave sensors. The GPM concept centers on the deployment of a Core Spacecraft in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit at 65' inclination carrying a dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and a multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer (GMI) with high-frequency capabilities to serve as a precipitation physics observatory and calibration standard for the constellation radiometers. The baseline GPM constellation is envisioned to comprise conical-scanning microwave imagers (e.g., GMI, SSMIS, AMSR, MIS, MADRAS, GPM-Brazil) augmented with cross-track microwave temperaturelhumidity sounders (e.g., MHS, ATMS) over land. In addition to the Core Satellite, the GPM Mission will contribute a second GMI to be flown in a low-inclination (-40') non-Sun-synchronous orbit to improve near real-time monitoring of hurricanes. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals aimed at (1) advancing the knowledge of the global waterlenergy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with opportunities for additional partners in satellite constellation and ground validation activities. Within the framework of the inter-governmental Group ob Earth Observations (GEO) and Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), GPM has been identified as a cornerstone for the Precipitation Constellation (PC) being developed under the auspices of Committee of Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). The GPM Core Observatory is scheduled for launch in 201 3, followed by the launch of the GPM Low-Inclination Observatory in 2014. An overview of the GPM mission status, measurement capabilities, ground validation plans, and anticipated contributions to scientific research and societal applications with a special emphasis on nowcasting will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.

Kirschbaum, Dalia Bach↗
NASA NTRS2018

Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting

Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere’s density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 μm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth’s response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Radiation Exposure at Aviation Flight Altitudes Using the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

Exposure to ionizing radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) at aircraft flight altitudes can have an adverse effect on human health. Although airline crews are classified as radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in most countries, their level of exposure is unquantified and undocumented throughout the duration of their career. As such, there is a need to assess pilot ionizing radiation exposure. The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS), a real-time global, physics-based model is used to assess such exposure. The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) measurement dataset consists of high latitude, high altitude, and long-duration aircraft flights between 2013-2021. Here, we characterize radiation exposure at aviation flight altitudes using the NAIRAS model and compare with over 800 flight trajectories from the ARMAS flight measurement inventory.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) With ISS Measurements

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) is a sophisticated physics-based model that has been providing real-time global predictions of cosmic radiation exposure, pertinent to both galactic and solar sources, to air travelers for a decade. The utility of NAIRAS, however, extends beyond the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. The recently developed NAIRAS 3.0 version demonstrates an expansion of its domain to the space radiation environment. This extension incorporates an additional trapped inner belt proton source, coupled with altitude-dependent and rigidity-dependent geomagnetic shielding for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) protons. The latest version of NAIRAS operates in two modes: real-time global predictions of the atmospheric radiation environment and a user-specified run-on-request service for global dosimetric calculations or predictions of dosimetric and particle flux quantities along user-uploaded flight path. It is available to the public at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In this work, we present the validation exercises that have been conducted using the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) onboard the International Space Station (ISS), thereby establishing NAIRAS's efficacy in predicting space radiation exposure. As such, NAIRAS 3.0 holds significant potential for human safety and technological advancement in aerospace travel and exploration.

Daniel Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Radiation Exposure at Aviation Flight Altitudes Using the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

Exposure to ionizing radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles (SEP) at aircraft flight altitudes can have an adverse effect on human health. Although airline crews are classified as radiation workers by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in most countries, their level of exposure is unquantified and undocumented throughout the duration of their career. As such, there is a need to assess pilot ionizing radiation exposure. The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS), a real-time, global, physics-based model is used to assess such exposure. The Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) measurement dataset consists of high latitude, high altitude, and long-duration aircraft flights between 2013-2023. Here, we characterize radiation exposure at aviation flight altitudes using the NAIRAS model and compare with over 1000 flight trajectories from the ARMAS flight measurement inventory.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of a SEP Event on Astronauts Doing a Spacewalk As Computed By the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) is a sophisticated physics-based model that has been providing real-time global predictions of cosmic radiation exposure, pertinent to both galactic and solar sources, to air travelers for a decade. The utility of NAIRAS, however, extends beyond the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. The recently developed NAIRAS 3.0 version demonstrates an expansion of its domain to the space radiation environment. This extension incorporates an additional trapped inner belt proton source, coupled with altitude-dependent and rigidity-dependent geomagnetic shielding for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) protons. The latest version of NAIRAS operates in two modes: real-time global predictions of the atmospheric radiation environment and a user-specified run-on-request service for global dosimetric calculations or predictions of dosimetric and particle flux quantities along user-uploaded flight path. It is available to the public at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In this work, we present the computations of the dose in the ISS vicinity during the SEP event of August 8, 2023; which happened a day before a scheduled spacewalk. We demonstrate that astronauts would not have suffered a dose equivalent in excess of 1 mSv if the event happened a day later. As such, NAIRAS 3.0 holds significant potential for human safety and technological advancement in aerospace travel and exploration.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Recent Improvements of the Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS)

The Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing Radiation System (NAIRAS) model is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure now running in real-time and in run on request (RoR) mode at NASA Goddard’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center. NAIRAS was recently updated to extend the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model to include ultra-heavy nuclei (Z=29-92, A=64-238) for single event effects assessment from high linear energy transfer processes, to expand the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity model to use the either the TS05 (Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2005), T89 (Tsyganenko, 1989), or the International Geomagnetic Reference Field model (IGRF) magnetic field models, and to improve the solar energetic particle (SEP) proton spectral fitting to better represent relativist protons during ground level enhancements. Here, we evaluate the recent NAIRAS improvements for a range of conditions. First, we demonstrate the effect of choice in magnetic field model to the NAIRAS computed dosimetric quantities for a United States domestic flight and a transatlantic flight during the May 11, 2024 SEP event. Second, the effect of ultra-heavy ions on SEP dose rate is examined for two different flight trajectories during the top SEP events. Lastly, the effect of ultra-heavy ions on NAIRAS computed GCR dose rates at solar minimum and maximum is demonstrated.

Daniel B Phoenix↗