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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of likelihood misspecification in Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

In recent years, several groups have designed Autonomous Experiment (AE) models with the aim of using them as an alternative method for neutron scattering scanning. In an AE, Gaussian processes (GPs) are most frequently used due to their interpretability, their non-parametric nature, their universal approximation, and their closed-form predictive distribution. GPs have two key components, namely, the model for the likelihood of a neutron count knowing the underlying dynamic structure factor and the acquisition function. In this paper, we investigate the impact, on the quality of an AE, of the likelihood and acquisition function choices, in energy scans and (Q, ω) ones, with respect to the signal-over-noise ratio. While we hypothesized that the quality of GP predictions would decrease when the normal to Poisson likelihood approximation breaks down at low count rates, we found that the use of the correct Poisson likelihood does not improve the quality of the data collected, as well as yields very poor results in (Q, ω) scans at low count rates. In fact, the best results are obtained with a combination of normal likelihood, including the observation noise, and the change in variance acquisition function. In addition, we find that the performance, or quality of the predictive distribution, is a misleading measure of efficiency, that is, of the quality of the data collected.

Perryman, David Elliott [Inst. Laue-Langevin (ILL)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photon number resolving detection with a single-photon detector and adaptive storage loop

Abstract Photon number resolving (PNR) measurements are beneficial or even necessary for many applications in quantum optics. Unfortunately, PNR detectors are usually large, slow, expensive, and difficult to operate. However, if the input signal is multiplexed, photon ‘click’ detectors, that lack an intrinsic PNR capability, can still be used to realize photon number resolution. Here, we investigate the operation of a single click detector, together with a storage line with tunable outcoupling. Using adaptive feedback to adjust the storage outcoupling rate, the dynamic range of the detector can in certain situations be extended by up to an order of magnitude relative to a purely passive setup. An adaptive approach can thus allow for photon number variance below the quantum shot noise limit under a wider range of conditions than using a passive multiplexing approach. This can enable applications in quantum enhanced metrology and quantum computing.

Sullivan, Nicholas M. (ORCID:0000000248447296)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Noisy Variational Quantum Eigensolver Ansatz Circuits

This is a case study of the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) method using numerical simulations to test the influence of noise on the accuracy of the underlying circuit ansatz. We investigate a computational chemistry application of VQE to calculate the electronic ground state and its energy for Sodium Hydride (NaH), a prototypical two-electron problem. Using a one-parameter ansatz derived from unitary coupled cluster (UCC) theory, we simulate the effects of noise on the energy expectation value and variance with respect to the ansatz parameter. These numerical simulations provide insights into the accuracy of the prepared quantum state and the efficiency of the classical optimizer that iteratively refines the ansatz. We conduct a comparative study between analytical results derived for the UCC ansatz in the absence of noise and the noisy numerical simulation results obtained using an isotropic depolarizing noise model for each gate. We also compare the relative increase in noise on logically equivalent UCC ansatz circuits generated by randomized compiling. Notably, we observe that the intrinsic variance in the energy due to the simplicity of the ansatz itself compares with the noise induced by the bare circuit.

Gowrishankar, Meenambika↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resilience of the slow component in timescale separated synchronized oscillators

Physiological networks are usually made of a large number of biological oscillators evolving on a multitude of different timescales. Phase oscillators are particularly useful in the modelling of the synchronization dynamics of such systems. If the coupling is strong enough compared to the heterogeneity of the internal parameters, synchronized states might emerge where phase oscillators start to behave coherently. Here, we focus on the case where synchronized oscillators are divided into a fast and a slow component so that the two subsets evolve on separated timescales. We assess the resilience of the slow component by, first, reducing the dynamics of the fast one using Mori-Zwanzig formalism. Second, we evaluate the variance of the phase deviations when the oscillators in the two components are subject to noise with possibly distinct correlation times. From the general expression for the variance, we consider specific network structures and show how the noise transmission between the fast and slow components is affected. Interestingly, we find that oscillators that are among the most robust when there is only a single timescale, might become the most vulnerable when the system undergoes a timescale separation. We also find that layered networks seem to be insensitive to such timescale separations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resilience of the slow component in timescale-separated synchronized oscillators

Physiological networks are usually made of a large number of biological oscillators evolving on a multitude of different timescales. Phase oscillators are particularly useful in the modelling of the synchronization dynamics of such systems. If the coupling is strong enough compared to the heterogeneity of the internal parameters, synchronized states might emerge where phase oscillators start to behave coherently. Here, we focus on the case where synchronized oscillators are divided into a fast and a slow component so that the two subsets evolve on separated timescales. We assess the resilience of the slow component by, first, reducing the dynamics of the fast one using Mori-Zwanzig formalism. Second, we evaluate the variance of the phase deviations when the oscillators in the two components are subject to noise with possibly distinct correlation times. From the general expression for the variance, we consider specific network structures and show how the noise transmission between the fast and slow components is affected. Interestingly, we find that oscillators that are among the most robust when there is only a single timescale, might become the most vulnerable when the system undergoes a timescale separation. We also find that layered networks seem to be insensitive to such timescale separations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary RAM-RODD results for the MUSiC subcritical configurations

The Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) was performed at the DOE’s National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) located in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The measurement utilized the Rocky Flats shells to perform benchmark measurements of similar highly enriched uranium (HEU) systems that span a wide range of reactivities. The Rocky Flats (RF) shells are 93.16% U-235 enriched metal hemishells that can be stacked concentrically. Ten configurations were measured with effective multiplication factors spanning between deeply subcritical (~ 0.64) through delayed critical. Details of the measured configurations are listed in Table 1. This unique set of measurements with its large span of reactivies is being used to determine the range over which neutron noise techniques such as Feynman variance-to-mean, Rossi-alpha, and pulsed neutron source techniques can be accurately employed for a bare HEU system. The results of the measurements will be published as a benchmark in The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The results will support the growing amount of subcritical benchmark data, such as the SCRaP measurements, that is available to the community. The measurements were performed using several different detector systems for the purposes of cross-validation and obtaining detector independent results. Four detector systems were deployed, three by the NCERC team and one from the University of Michigan. The detector systems included a Neutron Multiplicity Array Detector (NoMAD) system (similar to the MC-15), four small volume 0.635 cm (Ø) × 7.59 cm 3 He detectors (ideal for measuring prompt neutron decay constants due to their fast recovery speed), the Rossi Alpha Measurements – Rapid Organic (n, γ) Discrimination Detector (RAM-RODD), and the Organic Scintillator Array (OSCAR). RAM-RODD is an array of eight 5.08 cm (Ø) × 5.08 cm EJ-309 organic scintillator detectors. OSCAR is a University of Michigan system and is an array of twelve 5.08 cm (Ø) × 5.08 cm stilbene detectors. Details of measurements performed with OSCAR will be discussed in a separate talk. The focus of this work is preliminary results obtained by RAM-RODD for the 8 subcritical configurations. Additional details on the measurements and on the setup and deployment of RAM-RODD will be discussed. Preliminary neutron noise analysis results including Rossi-alpha and Feynman-alpha will also be presented.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Propagating sample variance uncertainties in redshift calibration: simulations, theory, and application to the COSMOS2015 data

ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of galaxy surveys rely on knowledge of the redshift distribution of their galaxy sample. This is usually derived from a spectroscopic and/or many-band photometric calibrator survey of a small patch of sky. The uncertainties in the redshift distribution of the calibrator sample include a contribution from shot noise, or Poisson sampling errors, but, given the small volume they probe, they are dominated by sample variance introduced by large-scale structures. Redshift uncertainties have been shown to constitute one of the leading contributions to systematic uncertainties in cosmological inferences from weak lensing and galaxy clustering, and hence they must be propagated through the analyses. In this work, we study the effects of sample variance on small-area redshift surveys, from theory to simulations to the COSMOS2015 data set. We present a three-step Dirichlet method of resampling a given survey-based redshift calibration distribution to enable the propagation of both shot noise and sample variance uncertainties. The method can accommodate different levels of prior confidence on different redshift sources. This method can be applied to any calibration sample with known redshifts and phenotypes (i.e. cells in a self-organizing map, or some other way of discretizing photometric space), and provides a simple way of propagating prior redshift uncertainties into cosmological analyses. As a worked example, we apply the full scheme to the COSMOS2015 data set, for which we also present a new, principled SOM algorithm designed to handle noisy photometric data. We make available a catalogue of the resulting resamplings of the COSMOS2015 galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stability of Kuramoto networks subject to large and small fluctuations from heterogeneous and spatially correlated noise

Oscillatory networks subjected to noise are broadly used to model physical and technological systems. Due to their nonlinear coupling, such networks typically have multiple stable and unstable states that a network might visit due to noise. In this article, we focus on the assessment of fluctuations resulting from heterogeneous and spatially correlated noise inputs on Kuramoto model networks. We evaluate the typical, small fluctuations near synchronized states and connect the network variance to the overlap between stable modes of synchronization and the input noise covariance. Going beyond small to large fluctuations, we introduce the indicator mode approximation that projects the dynamics onto a single amplitude dimension. Such an approximation allows for estimating rates of fluctuations to saddle instabilities, resulting in phase slips between connected oscillators. Statistics for both regimes are quantified in terms of effective noise amplitudes that are compared and contrasted for several noise models. In conclusion, bridging the gap between small and large fluctuations, we show that a larger network variance does not necessarily lead to higher rates of large fluctuations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transitioning from Stage-III to Stage-IV: cosmology from galaxy×CMB lensing and shear×CMB lensing

ABSTRACT We examine the cosmological constraining power from two cross-correlation probes between galaxy and cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys: the cross-correlation of lens galaxy density with CMB lensing convergence 〈δgκCMB〉, and source galaxy weak lensing shear with CMB lensing convergence 〈γκCMB〉. These two cross-correlation probes provide an independent cross-check of other large-scale structure constraints and are insensitive to galaxy-only or CMB-only systematic effects. In addition, when combined with other large-scale structure probes, the cross-correlations can break degeneracies in cosmological and nuisance parameters, improving both the precision and robustness of the analysis. In this work, we study how the constraining power of 〈δgκCMB〉 + 〈γκCMB〉 changes from Stage-III (ongoing) to Stage-IV (future) surveys. Given the flexibility in selecting the lens galaxy sample, we also explore systematically the impact on cosmological constraints when we vary the redshift range and magnitude limit of the lens galaxies using mock galaxy catalogs. We find that in our setup, the contribution to cosmological constraints from 〈δgκCMB〉 and 〈γκCMB〉 are comparable in the Stage-III data sets; but in Stage-IV surveys, the noise in 〈δgκCMB〉 becomes subdominant to cosmic variance, preventing 〈δgκCMB〉 to further improve the constraints. This implies that to maximize the cosmological constraints from future 〈δgκCMB〉 + 〈γκCMB〉 analyses, we should focus more on the requirements on 〈γκCMB〉 instead of 〈δgκCMB〉. Furthermore, the selection of the lens sample should be optimized in terms of our ability to characterize its redshift or galaxy bias instead of its number density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foreground-immune CMB lensing reconstruction with polarization

Extragalactic foregrounds are known to generate significant biases in temperature based CMB lensing reconstruction. Several techniques, which include "source hardening'" and "shear-only estimators'' have been proposed to mitigate contamination and have been shown to be very effective at reducing foreground-induced biases. Here we extend both techniques to polarization, which will be an essential component of CMB lensing reconstruction for future experiments and investigate the "large lens'' limit analytically to gain insight on the origin and scaling of foreground biases, as well as the sensitivity to their profiles. Furthermore, using simulations of polarized point sources, we estimate the expected bias to both Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 like (polarization-based) lensing reconstruction, finding that biases to the former are minuscule while those to the latter are potentially non-negligible at small scales ($L$ ~ $1000-2000$). In particular, we show that for a CMB-S4 like experiment, an optimal linear combination of point-source hardened estimators can reduce the (point-source induced) bias to the CMB lensing power spectrum by up to two orders of magnitude, at a ~ 4% noise cost relative to the global minimum variance estimator.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bounds on galaxy stochasticity from halo occupation distribution modeling

The joint probability distribution of matter overdensity and galaxy counts in cells is a powerful probe of cosmology, and the extent to which variance in galaxy counts at fixed matter density deviates from Poisson shot noise is not fully understood. The lack of informed bounds on this stochasticity is currently the limiting factor in constraining cosmology with the galaxy–matter probability distribution function (PDF). We investigate stochasticity in the conditional distribution of galaxy counts along lines of sight with fixed matter density, and we present a halo occupation distribution (HOD)-based approach for obtaining plausible ranges for stochasticity parameters. To probe the high-dimensional space of possible galaxy–matter connections, we derive a set of HODs that conserve the galaxies’ linear bias and number density to produce RED M A G I C-like galaxy catalogs within the A BACUS S UMMIT suite of N -body simulations. We study the impact of individual HOD parameters and cosmology on stochasticity and perform a Monte Carlo search in HOD parameter space subject to the constraints on bias and density. In mock catalogs generated by the selected HODs, shot noise in galaxy counts spans both sub-Poisson and super-Poisson values, ranging from 80% to 133% of Poisson variance for cells with mean matter density. Nearly all of the derived HODs show a positive relationship between local matter density and stochasticity. For galaxy catalogs with higher stochasticity, modeling galaxy bias to second order is required for an accurate description of the conditional PDF of galaxy counts at fixed matter density. The presence of galaxy assembly bias also substantially extends the range of stochasticity in the super-Poisson direction. This HOD-based approach leverages degrees of freedom in the galaxy–halo connection to obtain informed bounds on nuisance model parameters and can be adapted to study other parametrizations of shot noise in galaxy counts, in particular to motivate prior ranges on stochasticity for cosmological analyses.

Britt, Dylan (ORCID:000000019905601X)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigating Green's function Monte Carlo signal-to-noise problems using contour deformations

The Green's function Monte Carlo (GFMC) method provides accurate solutions to the nuclear many-body problem and predicts properties of light nuclei starting from realistic two- and three-body interactions. Controlling the GFMC fermion-sign problem is crucial, as the signal-to-noise ratio decreases exponentially with Euclidean time, requiring significant computing resources. Inspired by similar scenarios in lattice quantum field theory and spin systems, in this work, we employ integration contour deformations to improve the GFMC signal-to-noise ratio. Machine learning techniques are used to select optimal contours with minimal variance from parameterized families of deformations. As a proof of principle, we consider the deuteron binding energies and Euclidean density response functions. We only observe mild signal-to-noise improvement for the binding energy case. On the other hand, we achieve an order of magnitude reduction of the variance for Euclidean density response functions, paving the way for computing electron- and neutrino-nucleus cross-sections of larger nuclei.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mitigating Green's function Monte Carlo signal-to-noise problems using contour deformations

The Green's function Monte Carlo (GFMC) method provides accurate solutions to the nuclear many-body problem and predicts properties of light nuclei starting from realistic two- and three-body interactions. Controlling the GFMC fermion sign problem is crucial, as the signal-to-noise ratio decreases exponentially with imaginary time, requiring significant computing resources. Inspired by similar scenarios in lattice quantum field theory and spin systems, in this work, we employ integration contour deformations to improve the GFMC signal-to-noise ratio. Machine learning techniques are used to select optimal contours with minimal variance from parametrized families of deformations. As a proof of principle, we consider the deuteron binding energies and Euclidean density response functions. Here, we only observe mild signal-to-noise improvement for the binding energy case. On the other hand, we achieve an order of magnitude reduction of the variance for Euclidean density response functions, paving the way for computing electron- and neutrino-nucleus cross sections of larger nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precision redshift-space galaxy power spectra using Zel'dovich control variates

Numerical simulations in cosmology require trade-offs between volume, resolution and run-time that limit the volume of the Universe that can be simulated, leading to sample variance in predictions of ensemble-average quantities such as the power spectrum or correlation function(s). Sample variance is particularly acute at large scales, which is also where analytic techniques can be highly reliable. This provides an opportunity to combine analytic and numerical techniques in a principled way to improve the dynamic range and reliability of predictions for clustering statistics. In this paper we extend the technique of Zel'dovich control variates, previously demonstrated for 2-point functions in real space, to reduce the sample variance in measurements of 2-point statistics of biased tracers in redshift space. We demonstrate that with this technique, we can reduce the sample variance of these statistics down to their shot-noise limit out to k ~ 0.2 h Mpc -1 . This allows a better matching with perturbative models and improved predictions for the clustering of e.g. quasars, galaxies and neutral Hydrogen measured in spectroscopic redshift surveys at very modest computational expense. We discuss the implementation of ZCV, give some examples and provide forecasts for the efficacy of the method under various conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The miniJPAS survey quasar selection – I. Mock catalogues for classification

In this series of papers, we employ several machine learning (ML) methods to classify the point-like sources from the miniJPAS catalogue, and identify quasar candidates. Since no representative sample of spectroscopically confirmed sources exists at present to train these ML algorithms, we rely on mock catalogues. In this first paper, we develop a pipeline to compute synthetic photometry of quasars, galaxies, and stars using spectra of objects targeted as quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey . To match the same depths and signal-to-noise ratio distributions in all bands expected for miniJPAS point sources in the range 17.5 ≤ r < 24, we augment our sample of available spectra by shifting the original r-band magnitude distributions towards the faint end, ensure that the relative incidence rates of the different objects are distributed according to their respective luminosity functions, and perform a thorough modelling of the noise distribution in each filter, by sampling the flux variance either from Gaussian realizations with given widths, or from combinations of Gaussian functions. Finally, we also add in the mocks the patterns of non-detections which are present in all real observations. Although the mock catalogues presented in this work are a first step towards simulated data sets that match the properties of the miniJPAS observations, these mocks can be adapted to serve the purposes of other photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A variance deconvolution estimator for efficient uncertainty quantification in Monte Carlo radiation transport applications

Monte Carlo simulations are at the heart of many high-fidelity simulations and analyses for radiation transport systems. As is the case with any complex computational model, it is important to propagate sources of input uncertainty and characterize how they affect model output. Unfortunately, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is made difficult by the stochastic variability that Monte Carlo transport solvers introduce. The standard method to avoid corrupting the UQ statistics with the transport solver noise is to increase the number of particle histories, resulting in very high computational costs. In this contribution, we propose and analyze a sampling estimator based on the law of total variance to compute UQ variance even in the presence of residual noise from Monte Carlo transport calculations. Here, we rigorously derive the statistical properties of the new variance estimator, compare its performance to that of the standard method, and demonstrate its use on neutral particle transport model problems involving both attenuation and scattering physics. We illustrate, both analytically and numerically, the estimator’s statistical performance as a function of available computational budget and the distribution of that budget between UQ samples and particle histories. We show analytically and corroborate numerically that the new estimator is unbiased, unlike the standard approach, and is more accurate and precise than the standard estimator for the same computational budget.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reanalysis of crackle perception data using logistic and logarithmic fits and sound quality metrics

Mathematical models of human auditory perception (sound quality metrics) are explored for the purpose of fitting human subject data from a prior published study. A variety of linearizing transforms and techniques are employed. Ultimately, a model is identified that predicts 98.9% of the variance in average human subject ratings of crackliness of jet noise waveforms.

Swift, Stephen Hales↗