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Yonkers Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Environmental and Social Drivers of Urban Heat Vulnerability and Model Urban Cooling Interventions in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, is located directly north of the Bronx in Westchester County and currently hosts a population of nearly 200,000. In response to increasing hot-weather episodes, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality is disproportionately affecting neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. NASA DEVELOP collaborated with Groundwork Hudson Valley to determine regions within Yonkers that are experiencing the most intense urban heat island effects, identify and rank sociodemographic and environmental determinants of increasing community-level vulnerability, map these vulnerabilities as a combined vulnerability index, complete a proximity analysis of walkability to local cooling centers and health facility locations, and model potential cooling strategies. The study area consisted of Yonkers, NY and the analyses used data from 2015-2020 (June through August). The project utilized NASA Earth observation products including Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). We assessed the benefits of different heat-mitigation scenarios by utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model. Results from these analyses can be used by Groundwork Hudson Valley, supporting the New York State’s Climate Safe Communities Certifiable Planning Actions, expanding knowledge on the relationship between historic redlining and environmental equity, and informing their Climate Safe Neighborhoods initiative to identify and prioritize mitigation efforts to abate the worst impacts of extreme heat.

Jillian Walechka↗

Analysis of the Capacity Potential of Current Day and Novel Configurations for New York's John F. Kennedy Airport

In 2015, a series of systems analysis studies were conducted on John F. Kennedy Airport in New York (NY) in a collaborative effort between NASA and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ). This work was performed to build a deeper understanding of NY airspace and operations to determine the improvements possible through operational changes with tools currently available, and where new technology is required for additional improvement. The analysis was conducted using tool-based mathematical analyses, video inspection and evaluation using recorded arrival/departure/surface traffic captured by the Aerobahn tool (used by Kennedy Airport for surface metering), and aural data archives available publically through the web to inform the video segments. A discussion of impacts of trajectory and operational choices on capacity is presented, including runway configuration and usage (parallel, converging, crossing, shared, independent, staggered), arrival and departure route characteristics (fix sharing, merges, splits), and how compression of traffic is staged. The authorization in March of 2015 for New York to use reduced spacing under the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Wake Turbulence Recategorization (RECAT) also offers significant capacity benefit for New York airports when fully transitioned to the new spacing requirements, and the impact of these changes for New York is discussed. Arrival and departure capacity results are presented for each of the current day Kennedy Airport configurations. While the tools allow many variations of user-selected conditions, the analysis for these studies used arrival-priority, no-winds, additional safety buffer of 5% to the required minimum spacing, and a mix of traffic typical for Kennedy. Two additional "novel" configurations were evaluated. These configurations are of interest to Port Authority and to their airline customers, and are believed to offer near-term capacity benefit with minimal operational and equipage changes. One of these is the addition of an Optimized Profile Descent (OPD) route to runways 22L and 22R, and the other is the simultaneous use of 4 runways, which is not currently done at Kennedy. The background and configuration for each of these is described, and the capacity results are presented along with a discussion of drawbacks and enablers for each.

Glaab, Patricia↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction

While urban areas like New York City and its surrounding metropolitan region are key drivers of climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases, cities are also significantly impacted by climate shifts, both chronic changes and extreme events. These are already affecting the New York metropolitan region, including the five boroughs of New York City through higher temperatures, more intense precipitation, and higher sea levels, and will increasingly do so in the coming decades. The City of New York has embarked on a flexible adaptation pathway (i.e., strategies that can evolve through time as climate risk assessment, evaluation of adaptation strategies, and monitoring continues) to respond to climate change challenges. This entails significant programs to develop resilience in communities and critical infrastructure to observed and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level. The first NPCC Report laid out the risk management framing for the city and region via flexible adaptation pathways. The second New York City Panel on Climate Change Report (NPCC2) developed the “climate projections of record” that are currently being used by the City of New York in its resilience programs . The NPCC3 2019 Report co-generates new tools and methods for the next generation of climate risk assessments and implementation of region-wide resilience. Co-generation is an interactive process by which stakeholders and scientists work together to produce climate change information that is targeted to decision-making needs. These tools and methods can be used to observe, project, and map climate extremes; monitor risks and responses; and engage with communities to develop effective programs. They are especially important at “transformation points” in the adaptation process when large changes in the structure and function of physical, ecological, and social systems of the city and region are undertaken.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NPCC4: New York City Climate Risk Information 2022—Observations and Projections

New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel’s mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the “hot model” problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

NPCC4↗

Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding

The large population and major economic assets along New York City's extensive waterfront face exposure to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), an advisory group of academic and private-sector experts, provides the city with scientific guidance on future climate risks. Here we highlight current NPCC research on sea level rise, coastal flooding, with some of the City's current and planned responses.Twentieth century SLR in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.2-1.9 cm/decade), underscoring a greater regional risk. In 2015, the NPCC projected a 2080s SLR of 46-99 cm relative to 2000-2004 (25th -75th percentile) at the Battery, with high-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) of 1.9 m by 2100. Growing evidence of potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) suggests the possibility of even higher future sea levels. We therefore present a new low probability, yet high impact SLR scenario for New York City, which incorporates these ice sheet instabilities. The new SLR projections will be combined with coastal flood return period curves for the 100-year storm flood levels. Related ongoing research examines changes in storm characteristics, surge--sea level rise interactions, and mapping of neighborhoods at risk.Guided by NPCC findings, New York City undertakes programs to strengthen coastal defenses, tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC in collaboration with the city, continues to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, such as inland floods and coastal storms, and to develop stronger links with community-based stakeholder groups. New York City's plans to enhance coastal urban resiliency stand as a model for other urban coastal centers as they prepare for climate change.

Gornitz, Vivien↗

Simulating Fleet Noise for Notional UAM Vehicles and Operations in New York

This paper presents the results of systems-level simulations using Metrosim that were conducted for notional Urban Air Mobility (UAM)-style vehicles analyzed for two different scenarios for New York (NY). UAM is an aviation industry term for passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services, which are often automated, operating in an urban/city environment. UAM-style vehicles are expected to use vertical takeoff and landing with fixed wing cruise flight. Metrosim is a metroplex-wide route and airport planning tool that can also be used in standalone mode as a simulation tool. The scenarios described and reported in this paper were used to evaluate a fleet noise prediction capability for this tool. The work was a collaborative effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Intelligent Automation, Inc (IAI), and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ). One scenario was designed to represent an expanded air-taxi operation from existing helipads around Manhattan to the major New York airports. The other case represented a farther term vision case with commuters using personal air vehicles to hub locations just outside New York, with an air-taxi service running frequent connector trips to a few key locations inside Manhattan. For both scenarios, the trajectories created for the entire fleet were passed to the Aircraft Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) to generate Day-Night Level (DNL) noise contours for inspection. Without data for actual UAM vehicles available, surrogate AEDT empirical Noise-Power-Distance (NPD) tables used a similar sized current day helicopter as the Baseline, and a version of that same data linearly scaled as a first guess at possible UAM noise data. Details are provided for each of the two scenario configurations, and the output noise contours are presented for the Baseline and reduced noise DNL cases.

Glaab, Patricia↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018

Cities experience multiple environmental shifts, stresses, and shocks—such as air and water pollution—and a variety of extreme events simultaneously and continuously. Current urban programs have focused on limiting the impacts of these conditions through a portfolio of multifaceted strategies, such as regulations and codes, management and restoration projects, and citizen engagement. Global climate change represents a new environmental dynamic to which cities now have to respond. While global climate change by definition has impacts world wide, residents and managers of cities, like New York, typically perceive changes in their own local environments. In most cities, temperature is warming with increasingly hotter and longer heatwaves, and heavier downpours are leading to more frequent inland flooding. In coastal cities, sea levels are rising, exacerbating coastal flooding. Analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change on cities is important because of the dramatic growth in urban populations throughout the world. An estimated nearly 4.0 billion people reside in urban areas, accounting for 52% of the world’s population (UN, 2017). That percentage will increase dramatically in the coming decades as almost all of the growth to take place up to 2050 will be in urban areas (UN, 2017). The New York City metropolitan region (NYMR)—the five boroughs (equivalent to counties) of New York City and the adjacent 26 counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut—is an ideal model of an urban agglomeration. Approximately 8.6 million people live in the five boroughs and more than 15 million people live in the neighboring smaller cities, towns, and villages (City of New York, 2018a; US Census, 2017). The population of the five boroughs is projected to add 1 million people by 2030, while the total region is projected to reach 26.1 million (NYTC, 2015).

Solecki, William↗

Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an ~1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, ~5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

Drought↗

Dendroarchaeological Analysis of the Terminal Warehouse in New York City Reveals A History of Long-Distance Timber Transport During the Gilded Age

The Gilded Age of the late 19th century marked a period of rapid development and urbanization in New York City, U.S. To accommodate the high demand in wood products during that time, the timbers used for development of the city were increasingly sourced from locations distant from the northeastern United States. The Terminal Warehouse in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York City was one of many large buildings erected during this period of city expansion, and is an important symbol of New York City commerce during the late 1800s. To determine the history and provenance of timbers used in the construction of the Terminal Warehouse, we used tree-ring analysis on longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) joists that were original to the building. The ring-width patterns on the joists cross dated well internally, suggesting a common origin of the sampled lumber. Further, our Terminal Warehouse tree-ring chronology (1512–1891 C.E.) correlated strongly with existing tree-ring chronologies from western/central Georgia and eastern Alabama, indicating that the timbers were extracted from this region of the southeastern United States. The provenancing and dating of the Terminal Warehouse timbers underscores the important role that southern pines played in the expansion and development of New York City during the Gilded Age.

Dendroprovenance↗

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗

Developing Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in the New York City Infrastructure-Shed: Process, Approach, Tools, and Strategies

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be beyond the range of current capacity because an extreme event might cause flooding and inundation beyond the planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation approach and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder-scientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Technology transfer in New York City - The NASA/NYC Applications Project.

New York City faces many varied and complex problems ranging from truck hijacking to graffiti. In answer to a request from NYC officials NASA is sponsoring the efforts of a project aimed at applying aerospace-derived solutions to a series of city technical problems. An immediate result has been a pilot experiment to improve security in the City's schools. Other problem areas for NASA review have been selected from the Fire, Police and Air Resources Departments. The Project offers a significant example of a viable approach to the crucial process of bridging the communications gap between urban officials and technologists.

Karen, A.↗

Analysis of nonlinear internal waves in the New York Bight

An analysis of the nonlinear-internal-wave evolution in the New York Bight was performed on the basis of current meter mooring data obtained in the New York Bight during the SAR Internal Wave Signature Experiment (SARSEX). The solitary wave theory was extended to include dissipation and shoaling effects, and a series of numerical experiments were performed by solving the wave evolution equation, with waveforms observed in the SARSEX area as initial conditions. The results of calculations demonstrate that the relative balance of dissipation and shoaling effects is crucial to the detailed evolution of internal wave packets. From an observed initial wave packet at the upstream mooring, the numerical evolution simulation agreed reasonably well with the measurements at the distant mooring for the leading two large solitons.

Liu, Antony K.↗

Biogeochemical cycling of manganese in Oneida Lake, New York: whole lake studies of manganese

Oneida Lake, New York is a eutrophic freshwater lake known for its abundant manganese nodules and a dynamic manganese cycle. Temporal and spatial distribution of soluble and particulate manganese in the water column of the lake were analyzed over a 3-year period and correlated with other variables such as oxygen, pH, and temperature. Only data from 1988 are shown. Manganese is removed from the water column in the spring via conversion to particulate form and deposited in the bottom sediments. This removal is due to biological factors, as the lake Eh/pH conditions alone can not account for the oxidation of the soluble manganese Mn(II). During the summer months the manganese from microbial reduction moves from the sediments to the water column. In periods of stratification the soluble Mn(II) builds up to concentrations of 20 micromoles or more in the bottom waters. When mixing occurs, the soluble Mn(II) is rapidly removed via oxidation. This cycle occurs more than once during the summer, with each manganese atom probably being used several times for the oxidation of organic carbon. At the end of the fall, whole lake concentrations of manganese stabilize, and remain at about 1 micromole until the following summer, when the cycle begins again. Inputs and outflows from the lake indicate that the active Mn cycle is primarily internal, with a small accumulation each year into ferromanganese nodules located in the oxic zones of the lake.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise

The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC, 2015) sea level rise projections provide the current scientific basis for New York City scientific decision making and planning, as reflected in, for example, the City's Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines. However, since the IPCC (2013) and NPCC (2015) reports, recent observations show mounting glacier and ice sheet losses leading to rising sea levels. Furthermore, new developments in modeling interactions between oceans, atmosphere, and ice sheets suggest the possibility of a significantly higher global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) by 2100 than previously anticipated, particularly under elevated greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Gornitz, Vivien M.↗

Results from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration remote sensing experiments in the New York Bight, 7-17 April 1975

A cooperative operation was conducted in the New York Bight to evaluate the role of remote sensing technology to monitor ocean dumping. Six NASA remote sensing experiments were flown on the C-54, U-2, and C-130 NASA aircraft, while NOAA obtained concurrent sea truth information using helicopters and surface platforms. The experiments included: (1) a Radiometer/Scatterometer (RADSCAT), (2) an Ocean Color Scanner (OCS), (3) a Multichannel Ocean Color Sensor (MOCS), (4) four Hasselblad cameras, (5) an Ebert spectrometer; and (6) a Reconafax IV infrared scanner and a Precision Radiation Thermometer (PRT-5). The results of these experiments relative to the use of remote sensors to detect, quantify, and determine the dispersion of pollutants dumped into the New York Bight are presented.

Hall, J. B., Jr.↗

Remote sensing operations (multispectral scanner and photographic) in the New York Bight, 22 September 1975

Ocean dumping of waste materials is a significant environmental concern in the New York Bight. One of these waste materials, sewage sludge, was monitored in an experiment conducted in the New York Bight on September 22, 1975. Remote sensing over controlled sewage sludge dumping included an 11-band multispectral scanner, fiver multispectral cameras and one mapping camera. Concurrent in situ water samples were taken and acoustical measurements were made of the sewage sludge plumes. Data were obtained for sewage sludge plumes resulting from line (moving barge) and spot (stationary barge) dumps. Multiple aircraft overpasses were made to evaluate temporal effects on the plume signature.

Johnson, R. W.↗

Detection of ocean waste in the New York Bight

The application of remote sensing to detection and monitoring of ocean waste disposal in the New York Bight is discussed. Attention is focused on the two major pollutants in this area--sewage sludge and iron-acid waste--and on detecting and identifying these pollutants. The emphasis is on the use of LANDSAT multispectral data in identifying these pollutants and distinguishing them from other substances. The analysis technique applied to the LANDSAT data is the eigenvector. This approach proved to be quite successful in detecting iron-acid waste of the coast of Delaware and is applied here with relatively minor modifications. The results of the New York Bight work are compared to the Delaware results. Finally, other remote sensing systems (Nimbus G, aircraft photography and multispectral scanner systems) are discussed as possible complements of or replacements for the Landsat observations.

Philpot, W.↗