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At least 37 records · Page 2

Gaussian Process Classification for Galaxy Blend Identification in LSST

Abstract A significant fraction of observed galaxies in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will overlap at least one other galaxy along the same line of sight, in a so-called “blend.” The current standard method of assessing blend likelihood in LSST images relies on counting up the number of intensity peaks in the smoothed image of a blend candidate, but the reliability of this procedure has not yet been comprehensively studied. Here we construct a realistic distribution of blended and unblended galaxies through high-fidelity simulations of LSST-like images, and from this we examine the blend classification accuracy of the standard peak-finding method. Furthermore, we develop a novel Gaussian process blend classifier model, and show that this classifier is competitive with both the peak finding method as well as with a convolutional neural network model. Finally, whereas the peak-finding method does not naturally assign probabilities to its classification estimates, the Gaussian process model does, and we show that the Gaussian process classification probabilities are generally reliable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Generalized random forces for rectangular panels.

Generalized random forces for rectangular panels under subsonic and supersonic boundary-layer turbulence are studied in time domain by a Monte Carlo approach. Panels with simple, fixed, elastic-free, and periodic elastic boundary conditions are considered. The nature of probability structure, peak distribution, threshold crossing, and cross spectral density is investigated.

Vaicaitis, R.↗

The role of the micro environment on the tribological behavior of materials

The paper reviews studies of the role of the microenvironment in the adhesion, friction, and wear behavior of materials in solid-state contact. The microenvironment is defined as the environment on the surface of solids in solid-state contact. Properties of the environment are discussed which exert an influence on the adhesion, friction, wear, and lubrication of materials in contact. The effect of the environment on lubricants and their properties is considered with respect to the interaction of lubricants with material surfaces in contact; the effect on the ability of lubricants to provide protective surface films is also considered. It is concluded that naturally occurring oxides are probably the best available natural solid-film lubricants.

Buckley, D. H.↗

Greenstone belt tectonics: Thermal constraints

Archaean rocks provide a record of the early stages of planetary evolution. The interpretation is frustrated by the probable unrepresentative nature of the preserved crust and by the well known ambiguities of tectonic geological synthesis. Broad constraints can be placed on the tectonic processes in the early Earth from global scale modeling of thermal and chemical evolution of the Earth and its hydrosphere and atmosphere. The Archean record is the main test of such models. Available general model constraints are outlined based on the global tectonic setting within which Archaean crust evolved and on the direct evidence the Archaean record provides, particularly the thermal state of the early Earth.

Bickle, M. J.↗

A new activity index for comets

An activity index (AI) is derived from observational data to measure the increase of activity in magnitudes for comets when brightest near perihelion as compared to their inactive reflective brightnesses at great solar distances. In all, AI determinations are made for 32 long-period (L-P) comets and for 14 short-period (S-P). The range of values of AI is the order of 3 to 10 magnitudes with a median about 6. An expected strong correlation with perihelion distance, q, was found to vary as approx. q(-2.3). Residuals from a least-square solution, delta AI, were used for comparing comets of different orbital classes, the standard deviation of a single value of delta AI was only plus or minus 1(m).1 for L-P comets and plus or minus 1(m)2 for S-P comets. Among the L-P comets, 19 of Period, P greater than 10(exp 4) yr yielded delta AI greater than or equal to -0(m).27 compared to +0(m).39 for 13 of 10(exp 4) greater than P greater than 10(exp 2) yr. This denies any effect of aging among the L-P comets. The 14 S-P comets yielded (delta AI) less 0(m).3 plus or minus 0(m).3 than the 32 L-P comets. The results suggest a common actively level, nature and probably origin for comets of all orbits, sizes and ages.

Whipple, Fred L.↗

A hydrodynamic treatment of the tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

A standard hydrodynamic code coupled with a particle-mesh code is used to compute the evolution of a tilted cold dark matter (TCDM) model containing both baryonic matter and dark matter. Six baryonic species are followed, with allowance for both collisional and radiative ionization in every cell. The mean final Zel'dovich-Sunyaev y parameter is estimated to be (5.4 +/- 2.7) x 10 exp -7, below currently attainable observations, with an rms fluctuation of about (6.0 +/- 3.0) x 10 exp -7 on arcmin scales. The rate of galaxy formation peaks at a relatively late epoch (z is about 0.5). In the case of mass function, the smallest objects are stabilized against collapse by thermal energy: the mass-weighted mass spectrum peaks in the vicinity of 10 exp 9.1 solar masses, with a reasonable fit to the Schechter luminosity function if the baryon mass to blue light ratio is about 4. It is shown that a bias factor of 2 required for the model to be consistent with COBE DMR signals is probably a natural outcome in the present multiple component simulations.

Cen, Renyue↗

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

The probabilities of favorable and unfavorable weather conditions for launch and landing of the STS under different criteria were computed for every three hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions were considered for three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions for both Kennedy Space Center and for Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, the conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed. The probabilities were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

King, R. L.↗

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗

Using in-situ strain measurements to evaluate the accuracy of stress estimation procedures from fracture injection/shut-in tests

Fracture injection/shut-in tests are commonly used to measure the state of stress. Injection creates a hydraulic fracture (or in some cases, opens a preexisting fracture), and then the pressure after shut-in is monitored to identify fracture closure. Different interpretation procedures have been proposed for estimating closure, and the procedures sometimes yield significantly different results. In this study, direct, in-situ strain measurements are used to observe fracture reopening and closure. The tests were performed as part of the EGS Collab project, a mesoscale project performed at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The tests were instrumented with the SIMFIP tool, a double-packer probe with a high-resolution three-dimensional borehole displacement sensor. The measurements provide a direct observation of the fracture closure signature, enabling a high-fidelity estimate of the fracture closure stress (ie, the normal stress on the fracture). In two of the four tests, injection created an opening mode fracture, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the minimum principal stress. In the other two tests, injection probably opened preexisting natural fractures, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the normal stress on the fractures. The strain measurements are compared against different proposed methods for estimating closure stress from pressure transients. The shut-in transients are analyzed with two techniques that are widely used in the field of petroleum engineering – the ‘tangent’ method and the ‘compliance’ method. In three of the four tests, the tangent method significantly underestimates the closure stress. The compliance method is reasonably accurate in all four tests. Closure stress is also interpreted using two other commonly-used methods – ‘first deviation from linearity’ and the method of Hayashi and Haimson. In comparison with the SIMFIP data, these methods tend to overestimate the closure stress, evidently because they identify closure from early-time transient effects, such as near-wellbore tortuosity. In two of the tests, microseismic imaging provides an independent estimate of the size of the fracture created by injection. When combined with a simple mass balance calculation, the SIMFIP stress measurements yield predictions of fracture size that are reasonably consistent with the estimates from microseismic. In conclusion, the calculations imply an apparent fracture toughness 2-3x higher than typical laboratory-derived values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences↗

Electronic Structure Theory and Novel Materials

This grant supported research on electronic structure and materials theory, with focus on three main issues: (i) novel techniques to deal with correlation in the electronic ground-state, (ii) topological materials, (iii) the phase diagram of lattice spin models. Regarding (i), we applied to the homogeneous electron liquid an approach that we previously developed in the context of molecular systems. In this scheme the electronic occupation probabilities and the natural spin orbitals are used to construct an approximate two-body density matrix for the electronic ground-state. Regarding (ii) we used standard electronic structure methods based on density functional theory to model topological materials and interpret experimental observations. Finally, regarding (iii) we further developed a numerical approach to compute the renormalized couplings within real space renormalization group theory in the context of lattice spin models. The main findings were the following. (i) We found that with our approximate two-body density matrix, which works well for small molecules, is not sufficiently accurate for condensed phase systems. Missing a systematic way of improving on the adopted approximations, we decided not to pursue this approach. (ii) We performed two studies. In one, we investigated the influence of Te defects on the topological properties of a WTe2 monolayer, finding that while Te vacancies, even in modest concentration, destroy the topological character, Te adatoms do not, consistent with a recent experiment. In another study, we predicted Weyl semimetal character and strong anomalous Hall effect in the Heusler compensated ferrimagnet Ti2MnAl. (iii) We developed a new Monte Carlo method to do real space renormalization group calculations for lattice spin models. We subsequently extended the scheme to deal with lattice spin models in presence of quenched disorder, finding that the approach can distinguish systems with finite and strong disorder. In the finite disorder case, the method allows one to find with good approximation the critical coupling distribution and the critical exponents.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Plate drift in the Afar and Issas territory (French Somalia) and eastern Ethiopia as seen on space photography

Apollo 9 photographs of the region northwest of the Gulf of Tadjura were studied. The occurrence of a large region of basement rocks, probably crystalline in nature, with a strongly faulted overlayer was recognized and has been named the Tadjura uplift. Study of this region is adding detailed knowledge to the literature on the phenomenon of plate drift in the southern Red Sea region.

Bannert, D.↗

Spectral evidence for a carbonaceous chondrite surface composition on Deimos

The surface compositions of Phobos and Deimos as determined by their UV-visible reflectance are compared in order to evaluate the hypothesis that the different surface morphologies of the two satellites are due to different mechanical properties. The UV-visible reflectance spectrum of Deimos is compiled from Mariner 9 UV spectrometry and Canopus star tracker photometry and ground-based colorimetry and polarimetry; the geometric albedo of Deimos is determined from Mariner 9 Canopus star tracker data. The reflectance spectra of Deimos and Phobos are found to be similar in a first approximation, exhibiting low, flat reflectivities in the visible and dropping off sharply in the UV, compatible with a probable carbonaceous chondrite nature for Deimos as well as Phobos and suggesting that their different surface morphologies are most likely due to different orbital histories.

Pang, K. D.↗

Extended hopane derivatives in sediments - Identification by H-1 NMR

Sedimentary C32 hopanoic acid, one of the most abundant in nature and of probable bacterial origin, has been isolated for the first time as a single component and characterized by H-1 NMR. The 17 alpha H, 21 beta H configuration of the C31 alkane has been similarly confirmed.

Taylor, J.↗

Process Research On Polycrystalline Silicon Material (PROPSM)

The performance-limiting mechanisms in large-grain (greater than 1 to 2 mm in diameter) polycrystalline silicon solar cells were investigated by fabricating a matrix of 4 sq cm solar cells of various thickness from 10 cm x 10 cm polycrystalline silicon wafers of several bulk resistivities. Analysis of the illuminated I-V characteristics of these cells suggests that bulk recombination is the dominant factor limiting the short-circuit current. The average open-circuit voltage of the polycrystalline solar cells is 30 to 70 mV lower than that of co-processed single-crystal cells; the fill-factor is comparable. Both open-circuit voltage and fill-factor of the polycrystalline cells have substantial scatter that is not related to either thickness or resistivity. This implies that these characteristics are sensitive to an additional mechanism that is probably spatial in nature. A damage-gettering heat-treatment improved the minority-carrier diffusion length in low lifetime polycrystalline silicon, however, extended high temperature heat-treatment degraded the lifetime.

Culik, J. S.↗

The X-ray nebula around PSR 1509 - 58

With the use of measured spectra and a model, volumes and luminosities are derived for several components of the supernova remnant MSH 15 - 52. The hard, featureless spectrum and spatial symmetry of the X-ray nebula surrounding the central pulsar strongly indicate synchrotron radiation as the source of emission. Power requirements are easily supplied by the pulsar. The observed surface brightness is only 0.00002 that of the X-ray synchrotron emission around the Crab pulsar, and the X-ray luminosity is 0.01 that of the Crab. In spite of the great difference in luminosity and size, the two systems are probably similar in nature, with the high brightness and unique appearance of the Crab synchrotron nebula being due to the high energy output of the pulsar and the relatively small volume of the confining filaments.

Seward, F. D.↗

Meteoroid capture into earth orbit by atmospheric drag

A probabilistic analysis, based on orbital mechanics, is performed to evaluate the chances of meteoroids entering into earth orbit and the potential population of such objects. The problem is addressed in terms of meteoroids on earth collision courses, slowed by atmosphere entry/exit, entering elliptical orbits with apogees above the atmosphere. The overall capture probability is derived by integrating the capture fraction dependence on velocity and size over the probability frequency distribution of the collision courses. Account is taken of eventual orbit decay, lunar infall and ejection after encounters with the moon. The results indicate that the probability that a natural 10-100 m diam object has achieved earth orbit is negligibly small.

Friedlander, A. L.↗