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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

OGCM Simulations of Equatorial Pacific Current and Temperature to ERS-1, FSU and NMC Surface Winds and to Assimilation of Subsurface Temperature Data

The relative accuracies of three surface wind data products for the tropical Pacific Ocean during April 1992 to March 1994 were examined by analyzing temperature and current fields along the equator, which were simulated with an ocean general circulation model. Simulations were made with and without assimilation of surface and subsurface temperature data. Simulated currents were compared with observations at three sites (170oW, 140oW, 110oW) at the equator. Model-generated currents and temperatures indicated that the ERS-1 westward wind speeds were low compared to the FSU and NMC winds. With data assimilation, the agreement between simulated and observed currents was highest at 170oW and lowest at 110oW.

ERS-1 FSU↗
NASA NTRS1977

The impact of satellite soundings upon the NMC analysis and forecast system

The importance of satellite-derived soundings on National Meteorological Center weather analysis and forecast was studied by comparing summertime DST (Aug. 18-Sept. 4, 1975) forecasts generated by analyses with and without both the operational VTPR soundings from NOAA-4 and the experimental soundings derived from the infrared and microwave instruments aboard Nimbus-6. Objective and subjective procedures, including evaluation of standard skill scores and judgment by skilled synopticians, was used to evaluate the importance of satellite data. The investigation shows that satellite data do not aid numerical weather prediction in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tracton, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the effect of VAS data on some NMC analyses and forecasts

The effect of visible/infrared atmospheric sounder (VAS) data on the limited area fine mesh model (LFM) analysis forecast system were examined. The VAS data obtained from the Pacific geostationary satellite are valuable for LFM analysis because temperatures from the polar orbiting satellite over the east Pacific are received too late for 1200 GMT LFM analysis. Because the VISSR has only infrared channels, retrievals are possible only in regions with little or no cloudiness.

Olenic, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Biases and nonsystematic errors in NMC MRF predictions of momentum and zonal winds

The period of study considered by Rosen et al. (1987) for M forecasts is extended and the source of errors in these forecasts is examined. Time series of daily values of MRF forecasted minus the observed M are presented for forecast lead times of 2, 5, and 10 days from December 1985 through November 1988. A graph is presented of the covariance between errors in the angular momentum per unit mass forecasted at a 10-day lag, and those in the forecasted global angular momentum for the same period.

Rosen, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Forecasting the weather at the TAL sites during STS-40 using the grid point forecast output from the NMC MRF model

The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.

Hafele, Gene M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impact of stratospheric aircraft on calculations of nitric acid trihydrate cloud surface area densities using NMC temperatures and 2D model constituent distributions

A parameterization of NAT (nitric acid trihydrate) clouds is developed for use in 2D models of the stratosphere. The parameterization uses model distributions of HNO3 and H2O to determine critical temperatures for NAT formation as a function of latitude and pressure. National Meteorological Center temperature fields are then used to determine monthly temperature frequency distributions, also as a function of latitude and pressure. The fractions of these distributions which fall below the critical temperatures for NAT formation are then used to determine the NAT cloud surface area density for each location in the model grid. By specifying heterogeneous reaction rates as functions of the surface area density, it is then possible to assess the effects of the NAT clouds on model constituent distributions. We also consider the increase in the NAT cloud formation in the presence of a fleet of stratospheric aircraft. The stratospheric aircraft NO(x) and H2O perturbations result in increased HNO3 as well as H2O. This increases the probability of NAT formation substantially, especially if it is assumed that the aircraft perturbations are confined to a corridor region.

Considine, David B.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Comparison of U.K. Meteorological Office and U.S. National Meteorological Center Stratospheric Analyses During Northern and Southern Winter

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), produced using a data assimilation system, and the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC), produced using an objective analysis procedure, are compared for dynamically active periods during the Arctic and Antarctic winters of 1992. The differences seen during these periods are generally similar to those seen during other winter periods. Both UKMO and NMC analyses capture the large-scale evolution of the stratospheric circulation during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) winters. Stronger vertical and horizontal temperature gradients develop in the UKMO than in the NMC data during stratospheric warmings; comparison with satellite measurements with better vertical resolution suggests that the stronger vertical temperature gradients are more realistic. The NH polar vortex is slightly stronger in the UKMO analyses than in the NMC in the middle and upper stratosphere, and midstratospheric temperatures are slightly lower. The SH polar vortex as represented in the UKMO analyses is stronger and colder in the midstratosphere than its representation in the NMC analyses. The UKMO analyses on occasion exhibit some difficulties in representing cross-polar flow or changes in curvature of the wind field at very high latitudes. In addition to the above study of two wintertime periods, a more detailed comparison of lower-stratospheric temperatures is done for all Arctic and Antarctic winter periods since the launch of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In the NH lower stratosphere during winter, NMC temperatures are consistently lower than UKMO temperatures and closer to radiosonde temperatures than are UKMO temperatures. Conversely, in the SH lower stratosphere during winter, UKMO temperatures are typically lower than NMC and are closer to radiosonde temperature observations.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The atmospheric excitation of earth orientation changes during MERIT

Geodetic estimates of earth orientation variations detected during the MERIT campaign (September 1983-November 1984) are compared with corresponding meteorological data. The geodetic data were obtained using VLBI, lunar laser ranging, and satellite laser ranging and the meteorological data were from the NMC in the U.S. and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMRWF) in the U.K. The effects of changes in pressure, wind, and the inverted barometer ocean response on the excitation of the polar motion and the length of day are examined. The comparison between the meteorological and geodetic data reveals that the equatorial vector component of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) has significant annual and semiannual variations. Good correlation is detected between the geodetic polar motion data and the NMC pressure inverted barometer data combined with the ECMRWF wind estimates and semiannual agreement with the NMC pressure data is observed. There is also good correlation between the ECMRWF and NMC polar vector component of the AAM data and the geodetic length of day estimates, and good semiannual agreement with NMC pressure data is noted.

Eubanks, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Accuracy of atmospheric angular momentum estimates from operational analyses

An attempt is made to assess the accuracy of global atmospheric angular momentum determinations by comparing time series of this quantity derived from both the NMC and ECMWF zonal wind analyses for 1981-85. Over this period, the rms difference betwen the two atmospheric series is comparable to the difference between an atmospheric momentum series and the series that is consistent with observed (nontidal) changes in earth rotation. Most of the difference between the NMC and ECMWF global momentum values comes from the region between 33 deg S and 16 deg N. Differences between NMC and ECMWF regional momentum values become vanishingly small in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but they remain large throughout the entire Southern Hemisphere. An annual signal of up to 0.5 m/s exists in the difference between the NMC and ECMWF tropospheric zonal wind fields. Although seemingly small, this signal is vertically coherent and leads to a marked annual component in the NMC-ECMWF difference momentum values in the tropics and also for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

Rosen, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Construction of surface pressure field from scatterometer wind field

An account of the construction of surface pressure fields from Seasat-A satellite scatterometer (SASS) winds as carried out by different methods, and the comparison of these pressure fields with those derived from in situ ship observations is presented. On the assumption that the pressure adjusts itself instantaneously to the motion field, it may be computed by various methods. One of these makes use of planetary boundary theory, and of the possible techniques in this category a two-layer iterative scheme admitting of the parametrization of diabatic and baroclinic effects and of secondary flow was chosen. A second method involves the assumption of zero two-dimensional divergence, leading to a Laplace's equation (the balance equation) in pressure, with the wind field serving as a forcing function. This method does not accommodate adiabatic or baroclinic effects, and requires a knowledge of the pressure at all boundary points. Two comparison fields are used for validation: the conventional operational analyses of the US National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the special analyses of the Gulf of Alaska Experiment (GOASEX), which were done by hand. The results of the computations were as follows: (1) The pressure fields, as computed from the SASS winds alone, closely approximated the NMC fields in regions where reasonable in situ coverage was available (typically, one or two mb differences over most of the chart, three to four mb in extreme cases); (2) In some cases the SASS-derived pressure fields displayed high-resolution phenomena not detected by the NMC fields, but evident in the GOASEX data; and, (3) As expected, the pressure fields derived from the balance equation were much smoother and less well resolved than the SASS-derived or NMC fields. The divergence as measured from the SASS winds is smaller than, but of the same order of magnitude as, the vorticity.

Wurtele, Morton G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modelling TOVS radiances of synoptic systems

Two operational analysis models, produced by ECMWF and NMC, are compared against observed satellite radiances by converting the analyzed variables into synthetic radiances using a radiative transfer model (RTM). Observed TOVS satellite radiances are used as a ground truth, since they are the only source of continuous, synoptic-scale resolution observations available over the data-sparse tropical Pacific Ocean. It is assumed that if the analysis models correctly simulate atmospheric conditions, the observed and modelled radiance fields will have similar patterns and magnitudes. In each of seven TOVS channels examined, the mean temperature difference between the models was small, but the differences between the models and the observations were large. The mean temperature difference within each channel was larger than the standard deviation in most cases. The moisture channels of the RTM were sensitive to changes in moisture content, but none of the channels were significantly affected by changes in temperature. Single-day modelled radiance analyses contain synoptic information similar to the satellite observations. ECMWF is often too noisy, producing features not verified by the satellite; NMC is often too smooth. NMC more closely resembles the TOVS contours. Modelled water vapor channel analyses resemble observed monthly and composited observations well, but do not accurately reproduce the highly-variable single-day fields. ECMWF generally has more accurate gradients. Neither model simulates the tropics well. The water vapor channels, especially channel eleven (weighted at 700 mb), most closely resembled the tropical plume composite described by McGuirk and Ulsh. The only plume evidence found in the thermal or microwave channels, in either the observations or the models, was a composite trough situated in the correct location, extending from the mid-latitudes into the subtropics. This feature was not readily discernable until the definition and mature stages. Additional information besides the modelled temperatures would be required to produce an accurate forecast for the tropics. Model patterns more closely resembled the observations in the quiescent atmosphere, though the magnitudes were not any closer. ECMWF simulates the TOVS quiescent state better than NMC. The moisture channels continue to present the most realistic patterns. The models contained more detail in the tropics than was verified by the satellite observations, apparently trying to force an active ITCZ. Lag correlations showed TOVS to be more persistent than the models. TOVS also showed a smoother lag trend, but all products appeared to have adequate ability to react to changes in the atmosphere over time.

Coe, Thomas Eddy↗
NASA NTRS1996

Validation of UARS Microwave Limb Sounder Temperature and Pressure Measurements

The accuracy and precision of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) atmospheric temperature and tangent-point pressure measurements are described. Temperatures and tangent- point pressure (atmospheric pressure at the tangent height of the field of view boresight) are retrieved from a 15-channel 63-GHz radiometer measuring O2 microwave emissions from the stratosphere and mesosphere. The Version 3 data (first public release) contains scientifically useful temperatures from 22 to 0.46 hPa. Accuracy estimates are based on instrument performance, spectroscopic uncertainty and retrieval numerics, and range from 2.1 K at 22 hPa to 4.8 K at 0.46 hPa for temperature and from 200 m (equivalent log pressure) at 10 hPa to 300 m at 0.1 hPa. Temperature accuracy is limited mainly by uncertainty in instrument characterization, and tangent-point pressure accuracy is limited mainly by the accuracy of spectroscopic parameters. Precisions are around 1 K and 100 m. Comparisons are presented among temperatures from MLS, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) stratospheric analysis and lidar stations at Table Mountain, California, Observatory of Haute Provence (OHP), France, and Goddard Spaceflight Center, Maryland. MLS temperatures tend to be 1-2 K lower than NMC and lidar, but MLS is often 5 - 10 K lower than NMC in the winter at high latitudes, especially within the northern hemisphere vortex. Winter MLS and OHP (44 deg N) lidar temperatures generally agree and tend to be lower than NMC. Problems with Version 3 MLS temperatures and tangent-point pressures are identified, but the high precision of MLS radiances will allow improvements with better algorithms planned for the future.

Fishbein, E. F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Monitor and control software for ground systems in the Deep Space Network

Currently, the NMC is being utilized for 24/7 operations at the three main DSN complexes supporting all of the major spacecraft supported and managed by JPL. A portable version of NMC is being exercised in a Compatibility Test Trailer for off-site monitor and control. Remote monitoring of the three complexes at JPL is accomplished as part of the NMC infrastructure.

monitor and control infrastructure spacecraft oper↗
NASA NTRS1976

Retrieval of atmospheric temperature profiles by a scanning microwave spectrometer

The Nimbus-6 satellite carries a scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) experiment. The five frequency bands observed are near 22.2, 31.6, 52.8, 53.8, and 55.4 GHz. The calibration system permitted preflight calibration to an accuracy of about 1 K. In orbit, small empirical corrections were made to the calibration constants to obtain agreement in the mean of SCAMS measurements with computations based on conventional data analyzed by the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Global maps of temperature profiles were retrieved from the SCAMS measurements by a statistical method. Using the NMC analysis as the verification, RMS errors in level temperatures range of about 2-4 K, depending on altitude. Errors for layers of octave extent in pressure are uniformly about 2 K. Theoretical computations show that additional spectrometer channels would improve temperature sensing performance

Rosenkranz, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Survey: National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) is comprised of three operational divisions (Development, Automation, and Forecast) and an Administrative Division. The Development Division develops and implements mathematical models for forecasting the weather. The Automation Division provides the software and processing services to accommodate the models used in daily forecasts. The Forecasting Division applies a combination of numerical and manual techniques to produce analyses and prognoses up to 120 hr into the future. This guidance material is combined with severe storm information from the National Hurricane Center and the National Severe Storms Forecasting Center to develop locally tailored forecasts by the Weather Service Forecast Offices and, in turn, by the local Weather Service Offices. A very general flow of this information is shown. A more detailed illustration of data flow into, within, and from the NMC is given. The interrelations are depicted between the various meteorological organizations and activities.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

A comparison of limited-area energetic processes between observations and primitive equation model predictions

Energetic analyses of the NMC initial conditions and NMC six-layer primitive equation operational prediction model 12-hr forecast for a developing cyclone are presented. Consideration is given to the total kinetic energy, the energetics of the divergent and nondivergent flows and the baroclinic (vertical shear flow) and barotropic (vertical mean flow) components of the kinetic energy. It is found that the model initial conditions lose 10-15% of the kinetic energy at various levels compared to a limited-area multivariate statistical analysis of the observational data, leading to a decrease in the horizontal kinetic energy flux, a misrepresentation of the synoptic scale wave system in the 12-hr forecast. Similar results are obtained for the nondivergent flow, while the divergent flow energetics are not reproduced accurately by the model. The horizontal flux terms of the vertical mean and vertical shear energetics are also not found to be reproduced in the upper levels, although horizontal flux contributions to the baroclinic component are improved at middle and lower levels. Finally, vertical shear kinetic energy generation is found to be well represented in the model prediction, however kinetic energy conversion between vertical shear and mean flow is not reproduced in the lower layer.

Alpert, J. C.↗