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DOE OSTI2026

A comprehensive framework for validating simulation models of power system equipment using terminal measurements

Accurate simulation of power-plants is essential to the planning and operation of modern power grids. The current methods used to periodically check power-plant simulation models have many open questions about their limitations and accuracy. The research in this project explored using Monte-Carlo Experimentation (MCE) as a means for answering these important questions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing X-ray quantum imaging through Monte-Carlo simulations

Imaging with X-rays poses fundamental limits due to radiation damage of the highly energetic photons. This becomes problematic for sensitive biological systems such as subcellular structures. Lowering the radiation dose, without sacrificing the signal-to-noise ratio, would be desirable for any kind of imaging modalities involving X-rays. To achieve this goal, quantum imaging with entangled X-ray photons constitutes a promising route. Production of biphotons have been demonstrated in the X-ray regime by the process of Spontaneous Parametric Down-Conversion (SPDC). However, compared to SPDC in the regime of visible light, the production rate for X-ray biphotons is extremely low. With the introduction of new high average brightness X-ray sources, such as 4th generation synchrotrons and high repetition rate Free-Electron X-ray Lasers (XFEL), quantum imaging may become practical. We introduce a ray tracing approach using Monte-Carlo sampling, specifically designed for quantum imaging with entangled X-ray photons generated by SPDC. By simulation, the superior image quality of quantum over classical imaging methods is demonstrated using realistic experimental conditions available at high repetition rate XFELs. With these simulations, we can efficiently assist the design of future experiments at beam lines, which can substantially accelerate the advancement of X-ray quantum imaging and reduce costs.

Entangled Photons↗

DOE OSTI2023

The inclusion of uncertainty in circularity transition modeling: A case study on wind turbine blade end-of-life management

The transition to a more circular economy (CE) is complex and hard to predict, including in sustainable energy technologies. Many sources of uncertainty make it challenging to model CE scenarios and their potential benefits. As an example, the high variability in costs and revenues of different recycling options makes future wind turbine blade recycling highly uncertain. To better understand this challenge, the circular economy, life cycle assessment and visualization (CELAVI) framework - a discrete event simulation and life cycle assessment framework - is modified to incorporate uncertainty analysis capabilities. Moreover, a 3-step procedure that covers different aspects of uncertainty in CE studies and includes a Monte-Carlo analysis is proposed. The procedure is tested in a case study on wind turbine blade recycling using CELAVI. Results highlight that grinding and landfilling costs are the most influential parameters for wind power circularity. The model's output coefficients of variation (when input parameter uncertainties are propagated) are between 92% and 384% depending on the indicator. The approach developed in this study may help researchers and decision-makers who study circularity prioritize their data collection effort. Finally, our method contributes to a mounting yet critical body of research: the measurement of uncertainty in circularity transitions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enabling attractive-repulsive potentials in binary-collision-approximation monte-carlo codes for ion-surface interactions

Abstract Binary Collision Approximation (BCA) codes for ion-material interactions, such as SRIM, Tridyn, F-TRIDYN, and SDtrimSP, have historically been limited to screened Coulomb potentials even at low energies due to the difficulty in numerically solving the Distance of Closest Approach (DOCA) problem for attractive-repulsive potentials. Techniques such as direct n-body simulation or modifications to Newton’s method are either prohibitively costly or not guaranteed to work for all potentials. Advanced rootfinding techniques, such as companion matrix solvers, offer a solution. For many attractive-repulsive potentials, however, a companion matrix cannot be used directly, because there is no way to put the associated functions into a monomial basis form. A complementary technique is proxy rootfinding—by finding the best-fit polynomial approximant of a function, the zeros of the approximant can be guaranteed to be close to the zeros of the function. Using the Chebyshev basis and grid offers additional guarantees with regards to the quality of the approximation, the speed of convergence, and the avoidance of Runge’s phenomenon. By finding Chebyshev interpolants and using the Chebyshev-Frobenius companion matrix, the zeros of any real function on a bounded domain can be found. Here we show that using an Adaptive Chebyshev Proxy Rootfinder with Automatic Subdivision (ACPRAS) with appropriate scaling functions, numerical issues presented by attractive-repulsive potentials, including those of scale, can be handled. Using these techniques, we show that it is possible to include any physically reasonable interatomic potential in a BCA code, and to guarantee correctness of the resulting scattering angle calculations.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

G EANT 4 atomic relaxation data for transfermium nuclei (Z = 101–104)

Advanced theoretical methods can accurately calculate various atomic observables and predict electronic structure. Still, systematic computations of the radiative and non-radiative transition probabilities and energies are missing for the actinides and all the transfermium elements. However, these compilations are needed for comprehensive Monte-Carlo simulations (such as GEANT4) of the radioactive decay of transfermium nuclei. These simulations can forma basis for data analysis of experiments, especially with complex detection setups. Investigation of the transfermium nuclei is crucial for understanding the nature of the nuclear force. In this study, simulations based on data from the Jena Atomic Calculator (JAC) and the data from the Evaluated Atomic Data Library (EADL) present in GEANT4 were found compatible for the three elements Ba(Z = 56), U(Z = 92), and Fm(Z = 100), thus, validating the JAC calculations. For Z> 100, we also found sound agreement between simulations that used data generated with JAC and experimental results involving No(Z = 102) and Rf(Z = 104) isotopes. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that JAC can produce reliable atomic data sets for transfermium elements, which will assist in analyzing nuclear-decay-spectroscopy experiments.

GEANT4↗

DOE OSTI2024

Density scaling approximation for Monte-Carlo simulations of radioactive plumes

The release of radioactive gas into the atmosphere can diffuse into large volumes of air downwind from the point of release. The extent of radioactivity can cover thousands of cubic meters of air. For such large volumes, the weather models used to predict the down-wind distribution of the plume and the radiation transport models used to predict the radiation reaching ground-level from the plume can take tens of hours of computer time on multi-node institutional High-Performance Computing facilities. In this paper we focus on the radiation transport aspect of plume modeling. Here, we describe a phenomenological method for approximating the amounts of radiation that reach ground level from large volumes of a static radioactive plume that can be calculated on a stand-alone personal computer in much shorter computation times than those usually needed for such large volume evaluations. We refer to this method as the Density Scaling Approximation (DSA). Its ability to approximate ground-level count rates of large plumes comes from using a small-plume volume with a scaled-up value of air density to simulate the same number of scatterings that occur during transport in larger plume volumes at normal air density. We demonstrate the DSA by using a 100 m-diameter air-filled hemispherical dome geometry with a uniform volumetric activity of 135 Xe gas throughout the air-filled volume. The DSA for a larger dome diameter is obtained by evaluating the 100 m dome with an air density scaled up by the linear ratio of the larger diameter to the 100 m diameter. We find that this approximation works well for dome diameters up to 1200 m – the largest diameter studied and a size more than sufficient for accounting for all the radiation from 135 Xe. Moreover, most of our DSA results can be calculated over 500 times faster than corresponding full-sized geometry with normal air density. To help evaluate the accuracy of the DSA and gain insight into how well it can reproduce different regions of the spectra, we use three, easily understood regions of interest to compare the DSA results to the full-sized geometry at normal air density results. These regions are the full-energy peak, the region of single-Compton scattering, and the region of multiple-Compton scattering. We show how the dominance of the Compton scattering mechanism determines this division and thus provides insight into how Compton scattering is manifested in spectra from photon scattering through air in general, and how well the DSA approximation works.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding polaronic transport in complex oxides by combining precise synthesis and first-principles many-body theory

In complex oxides, charge carriers often couple strongly with lattice vibrations to form polarons–entangled electron–phonon quasiparticles whose transport properties remain difficult to characterize. Experimental access to intrinsic polaronic transport requires ultraclean samples, while theoretical description demands methods beyond low-order perturbation theory. Here, we show a predictive theory–experiment workflow to study polaron transport in complex oxides. Focusing on a prototypical polaronic oxide, anatase TiO 2 , we combine growth of high-quality oxygen-vacancy-doped films using hybrid molecular beam epitaxy with a first-principles electron–phonon diagrammatic Monte-Carlo (FEP-DMC) framework recently developed for accurate polaron predictions. Our films exhibit record-high electron mobility for anatase TiO 2 , in excellent agreement with FEP-DMC calculations conducted prior to experiment, which predict a room-temperature mobility of 45 ± 15 cm −2 V −1 s −1 and a mobility-temperature scaling of μ ∝ T −1.9 ± 0.077 . Microscopic analysis using scanning transmission electron microscopy and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy reveals the role of oxygen vacancies in modulating transport at lower temperatures. FEP-DMC further provides quantitative insight into polaron formation energy, phonon cloud distribution, lattice distortion around the polaron, and the polaronic contribution to mobility. Together, these results provide a deeper microscopic understanding of large-polaron transport in a complex oxide and provide the blueprint to characterize other polaronic materials.

anatase TiO2↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exascale Multiphysics Nuclear Reactor Simulations for Advanced Designs

ENRICO is a coupled application developed under the U.S. Department of Energy's Exascale Computing Project (ECP) targeting the modeling of advanced nuclear reactors. It couples radiation transport with heat and fluid simulation, including the high-fidelity, highresolution Monte-Carlo code Shift and the Computational fluid dynamics code NekRS. NekRS is a highly-performant open-source code for simulation of incompressible and low-Mach fluid flow, heat transfer, and combustion with a particular focus on turbulent flows in complex domains. It is based on rapidly convergent high-order spectral element discretizations that feature minimal numerical dissipation and dispersion. State-of-the-art multilevel preconditioners, efficient high-order time-splitting methods, and runtime-adaptive communication strategies are built on a fast OCCA-based kernel library, libParanumal, to provide scalability and portability across the spectrum of current and future high-performance computing platforms. On Frontier, Nek5000/RS has recently achieved an unprecedented milestone in breaching over 1 billion spectral elements and 350 billion degrees of freedom. Shift has demonstrated the capability to transport upwards of 1 billion particles per second in full core nuclear reactor simulations featuring complete temperature-dependent, continuous-energy physics on Frontier. Shift achieved a weak-scaling efficiency of 97.8% on 8192 nodes of Frontier and calculated 6 reactions in 214,896 fuel pin regions below 1% statistical error yielding first-of-a-kind resolution for a Monte Carlo transport application.

Hamilton, Steven P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Double-real corrections to color singlet decay in a parton-shower inspired scheme

We introduce a local infrared subtraction method for next-to-next-to-leading order QCD calculations in color singlet decays, with counterterms based on scalar radiators and pure splitting functions. Overlapping singularities in the multipole radiation pattern are disentangled by partial fractioning, and the kinematics mapping corresponds to iterated next-to-leading order kinematics. We verify that the double-real remainder to $e^+e^-\to\;q\bar{q}$ is rendered finite in the single and double unresolved limits and investigate the numerical convergence of the Monte-Carlo integral. We compute the phase-space integrals of the scalar counterterms in the back-to-back configuration, both analytically and with the help of numerical techniques based on sector decomposition.

Campbell, John M. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Stochastic Covariance Shrinkage Approach in Ensemble Transform Kalman Filtering

The Ensemble Kalman Filters (EnKF) employ a Monte-Carlo approach to represent covariance information, and are affected by sampling errors in operational settings where the number of model realizations is much smaller than the model state dimension. To alleviate the effects of these errors EnKF relies on model-specific heuristics such as covariance localization, which takes advantage of the spatial locality of correlations among the model variables. This work proposes an approach to alleviate sampling errors that utilizes a locally averaged-in-time dynamics of the model, described in terms of a climatological covariance of the dynamical system. We use this covariance as the target matrix in covariance shrinkage methods, and develop a stochastic covariance shrinkage approach where synthetic ensemble members are drawn to enrich both the ensemble subspace and the ensemble transformation. We additionally provide for a way in which this methodology can be localized similar to the state-of-the-art LETKF method, and that for a certain model setup, our methodology significantly outperforms it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating the discovery of low-energy structure configurations: A computational approach that integrates first-principles calculations, Monte Carlo sampling, and Machine Learning

Finding Minimum Energy Configurations (MECs) is essential in fields such as physics, chemistry, and materials science, as they represent the most stable states of the systems. In particular, identifying such MECs in multi-component alloys considered candidate PFMs is key because it determines the most stable arrangement of atoms within the alloy, directly influencing its phase stability, structural integrity, and thermo-mechanical properties. However, since the search space grows exponentially with the number of atoms considered, obtaining such MECs using computationally expensive first-principles DFT calculations often results in a cumbersome task. To escape the above compromise between physical fidelity and computational efficiency, we have developed a novel physics-based data-driven approach that combines Monte Carlo sampling, first-principles DFT calculations, and Machine Learning to accelerate the discovery of MECs in multi-component alloys. More specifically, we have leveraged well-established Cluster Expansion (CE) techniques with Local Outlier Factor models to establish strategies that enhance the reliability of the CE method. In this work, we demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed approach for the particular case of a tungsten-based quaternary high-entropy alloy. However, the method is applicable to other types of alloys and enables a wide range of applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Best of both worlds: Enforcing detailed balance in machine learning models of transition rates

The slow microstructural evolution of materials often plays a key role in determining material properties. When the unit steps of the evolution process are slow, direct simulation approaches such as molecular dynamics become prohibitive and Kinetic Monte-Carlo (kMC) algorithms, where the state-to-state evolution of the system is represented in terms of a continuous-time Markov chain, are instead frequently relied upon to efficiently predict long-time evolution. The accuracy of kMC simulations however relies on the complete and accurate knowledge of reaction pathways and corresponding kinetics. This requirement becomes extremely stringent in complex systems such as concentrated alloys where the astronomical number of local atomic configurations makes the a priori tabulation of all possible transitions impractical. Machine learning models of transition kinetics have been used to mitigate this problem by enabling the efficient on-the-fly prediction of kinetic parameters. While conventional KMC methods based on transition state theory naturally yield reversible dynamics that exactly obey the detailed balance criterion, providing strong guarantees on the properties of the stationary distribution, many recently-proposed ML-based approaches to barrier predictions provide no such guarantees. In this study, we derive conditions under which physics-informed ML architectures exactly enforce the detailed balance condition by construction, even when relying on non-extensive descriptions of states in terms of local environments around mobile defects. In conclusion, using the diffusion of a vacancy in a concentrated alloy as an example, we show that such ML architectures also exhibit superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy, demonstrating that the imposition of physical constraints can facilitate the accurate learning of barriers at no increase in computational cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

An implicit particle code with exact energy and charge conservation for electromagnetic studies of dense plasmas

A collisional particle code based on implicit energy- and charge-conserving methods is presented. A modified version of the particle-suppressed Jacobian-Free Newton-Krylov method that can enhance the solver efficiency is introduced. Mathematically, it is shown that this new approach can be viewed as a fixed-point iteration method for the particle positions. The model can exactly conserve global energy and local charge and can efficiently use time steps larger than the plasma period. In conclusion, the algorithm's ability to simulate dense plasmas accurately and efficiently is quantified by simulating the dynamic compression of a plasma slab via a magnetic piston in 1D planar geometry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sheath transitions in a cylindrical filament discharge: Axisymmetric 1D3V PIC-MCC simulations

We present the first nonplanar hot cathode discharge simulations that capture the role of the trapped-ions plasma, elucidating new phenomena unobservable in planar geometric discharges. A discharge struck between a single emitting wire filament cathode and a bounding anode is simulated in cylindrical geometry using an axisymmetric (radial) particle-in-cell Monte-Carlo collisions code. Operating the discharge near its ionization energy threshold can lead to the formation of a two plasma mode (TPM). One plasma forms in the conventional upstream region through electron impact ionization of background neutrals. A second plasma, whose global effect on the discharge was not previously well understood, forms downstream through the trapping of cold ions in the potential well of the filament’s virtual cathode, a process enabled by ion-neutral charge exchange collisions. Three space charge regions intersperse the electrode gap—an emissive sheath between the cathode filament and trapped-ions plasma, a double layer between the two plasmas, and a classical sheath between the upstream plasma and the outer anode. Simulations exhibit mode transitions and quenching instabilities that transform the discharge between the TPM and other single-plasma sheath modes that include classical (temperature-limited), space charge limited, and inverse (anode glow) modes. The transitions are explained via “aid-and-compete” dynamics wherein the growth of one plasma enhances growth in the other while concurrently exhibiting expansion dynamics antagonistic to each other. The system exhibits strong hysteresis memory during the mode transitions. Improved understanding and control of these sheath mode transitions are expected to benefit plasma applications with hot cathodes.

Electrical hysteresis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Immersion Freezing in Particle-Based Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics: A Probabilistic Perspective on Singular and Time-Dependent Models

Cloud droplets containing immersed ice-nucleating particles (INPs) may freeze at temperatures above the homogeneous freezing threshold temperature in a process referred to as immersion freezing. In modeling studies, immersion freezing is often described using either so-called “singular” or “time-dependent” parameterizations. Here, we compare both approaches and discuss them in the context of probabilistic particle-based (super-droplet) cloud microphysics modeling. First, using a box model, we contrast how both parameterizations respond to idealized ambient cooling rate profiles and quantify the impact of the polydispersity of the immersed surface spectrum on the frozen fraction evolution. Presented simulations highlight that the singular approach, constituting a time-integrated form of a more general time-dependent approach, is only accurate under a limited range of ambient cooling rates. The time-dependent approach is free from this limitation. Second, using a prescribed-flow two-dimensional cloud model, we illustrate the macroscopic differences in the evolution in time of ice particle concentrations in simulations with flow regimes relevant to ambient cloud conditions. The flow-coupled aerosol-budget-resolving simulations highlight the benefits and challenges of modeling cloud condensation nuclei activation and immersion freezing on insoluble ice nuclei with super-particle methods. The challenges stem, on the one hand, from heterogeneous ice nucleation being contingent on the presence of relatively sparse immersed INPs, and on the other hand, from the need to represent a vast population of particles with relatively few so-called super particles (each representing a multiplicity of real particles). We discuss the critical role of the sampling strategy for particle attributes, including the INP size, the freezing temperature (for singular scheme) and the multiplicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Capturing Surface Coverage Effects in Heterogeneous Catalysis

Adsorbate–adsorbate lateral interactions at relevant surface coverages have a significant effect on chemical kinetics, thereby influencing the activity of a heterogeneous catalyst. Coverage-dependent kinetic and thermodynamic parameters therefore must be included in studies of such complex systems to properly predict the turnover frequencies and kinetic trends. Thus, it becomes extremely important to accurately capture the strength of lateral interactions between neighboring species under realistic reaction conditions. In this Perspective, we discuss the various existing computational and experimental methods for determining adspecies coverage and configurational effects. The choice of the tools and methods employed in such studies depends on factors such as time, length scales, computational cost, the presence of solvents, and reaction conditions. The applications of each method and the respective challenges are also discussed here. As a result, we discuss the recent developments and future of the state-of-the-art for inclusion of surface coverage and configuration into a holistic picture for accurate predictions of catalytic behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transfer functions for Q A /Q B international regulatory limits for the safe transport of radioactive materials

This paper presents a proposed revision of the International Atomic Energy Agency transport regulations, related to the A 1 and A 2 limit values used to determine the radioactive transport classification. Based on the 'Q system', a novel methodology was introduced to derive Q A and Q B values related to scenarios involving external exposure from a distant source. These values are key parameters that respectively represent the total effective dose and total equivalent dose to the skin, from all primary and secondary particles contributing to radiation exposure. The International Working Group (WG A 1 /A 2 ) is established and associated with the TRANSSC Technical Expert Group on Radiation Protection. A review of the A 1 and A 2 values is performed in response to identified limitations within the existing Q system. The followed approach is based on Monte Carlo simulations that enabled the development of transfer functions aimed at reducing computational time and increasing the flexibility of dose evaluations for any radionuclide with known particle emission spectra. This method allows updating the Q A and Q B values to account for future data evolutions (decay data, fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients) and standardizing the calculation of regulation limits across all referenced radionuclides and scenarios related to external exposure. The transfer functions are established using three Monte Carlo simulation codes—FLUKA, Geant4, and MCNP—and address the previous limitations of the 'Q system', reflecting the latest International Commission for Radiation Protection recommendations and improvements in calculation techniques. The results of the WG show consistent agreement across the codes, with minor discrepancies observed at low primary energies due to statistical uncertainties and different handling of stopping power for electrons/positrons in the codes. This revised approach aligns with current standards and recommendations, ensuring that the radiological consequences of transport accidents are acceptable for the new A 1 and A 2 limits from a radiological protection perspective.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Short-range magnetic correlations in quasicrystalline i -Tb-Cd

Here, we report on elastic and inelastic neutron scattering from single-grain isotopically enriched samples to elucidate the local magnetic correlations between Tb 3+ moments in quasicrystalline i -Tb-Cd. The inelastic neutron scattering measurements of the crystalline electric field excitations demonstrated that the Tb 3+ moments are directed primarily along the local fivefold axes of the Tsai-type cluster as was found for the TbCd 6 approximant phase. Based on the inelastic measurements, we consider a simple Ising-type model for the moment configurations on a single Tb 3+ icosahedron and enumerate the lowest energy moment configurations. We then calculate the diffuse scattering from these configurations and compare with the experimental magnetic diffuse scattering measurements to identify the most likely single cluster moment configurations and find reasonable agreement between the broad features observed in our scattering simulations. We further use a heuristic glass model as well as large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of a multicluster model to consider the role of higher-order (longer-range) intercluster correlations for magnetic frustration and the magnetic scattering.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗