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At least 37 records · Page 2
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DOE OSTI2024

Global Warming Amplifies Outdoor Extreme Moist Heat During the Indian Summer Monsoon

Because of the climatological prevalence of hot, humid conditions, moist heat extremes are a significant challenge to the health and wellbeing of the people in India. While research has demonstrated the importance of summer monsoon to moist heat in India, impact of monsoon–break and warm spells in modulating extreme moist heat regionally has not been fully investigated. Here we investigate moist heat extremes, as measured by the Wet–Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metric, specifically during monsoon and monsoon–break periods and find that they pose a major threat to physical labor and health relative to other seasons. During the 1951–2020 break period, an increase in area exposed (~42.76 million km 2 ), representing at least 670 million people, to extreme and detrimental WBGT values >31°C occur. Our results imply that future studies on extreme moist heat must pay close attention to the variation of weather systems on synoptic to subseasonal time scales that are superimposed on the seasonal monsoon migration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal variability and predictability of monsoon precipitation in Southern Africa

Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key in predicting monsoon precipitation with a zero to five-month lead. Seasonal forecasting systems accurately represent the interplay of the three forcings but show varying skills in representing their teleconnection over SA. This makes them less effective at predicting monsoon precipitation than the empirical model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extreme high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled by BC $\times$ 10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) (a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three sub-regions including East Asian, South Asian, and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land-sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation; whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extreme high BC level, that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Base State Influences on South Asian Monsoon Processes Derived From Analyses of E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract The effects of differences in climate base state are related to processes associated with the present‐day South Asian monsoon simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Though tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean base state sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are over 1°C cooler in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2, and there is an overall reduction of Indian sector precipitation, the pattern of South Asian monsoon precipitation is similar in the two models. Monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections, dynamically linked by the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric circulation, are reduced in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. In E3SMv2, this is related to cooler tropical SSTs and ENSO amplitude that is less than half that in CESM2. Comparison to a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment shows, to a first order, that the base state SSTs and ENSO amplitude contribute roughly equally to lower amplitude monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Topographic Controls on the Distribution of Summer Monsoon Precipitation over South Asia

In this work, we use a high-resolution (9 km) one-way nested regional climate modeling framework to systematically evaluate individual and aggregate roles of various components of topography in the precipitation distribution during South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). While it is not the arrival but the north-northwestward extent of summer monsoon precipitation that is regulated by the presence of elevated surfaces in South Asia, both the thermal and mechanical topographic forcing play a role. Topography not only provides mechanical uplifting and prevents dry air entrainment, it also helps regulate the strength of upper level anticyclone and tropical easterly jet, all of which are necessary to sustain a conducive environment for monsoon precipitation in the South Asian summer. In turn, precipitation feedbacks positively by accelerating the tropospheric diabatic warming through atmospheric latent heating and by maintaining the moisture supply through local recycling. Modifications in the topography, particularly the removal of the Tibetan Plateau, substantially modulates the moist flow in the lower troposphere and the anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere to an extent that the northern branch of SASM becomes substantially weaker. These changes give way to negative precipitation anomalies and eventually to an environment where the cycle of feedbacks that runs the process of monsoon progression over land becomes inefficient. The design of topographic modification experiments can influence precipitation response; therefore, we advise caution in the interpretation of these and previously reported results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

The Monsoon Asia region is home to ten of the world’s biggest rivers, supporting the lives of 1.7 billion people who rely on streamflow for water, energy, and food. Yet, a synoptic understanding of multi-centennial streamflow variability for this region is lacking. Here we produce the first large scale streamflow reconstruction over Monsoon Asia (63 stations in 16 countries), using a novel climate-informed dynamic algorithm that is skillful over 92% of the gauging stations. In this work, we show that streamflow in Monsoon Asia is spatially coherent, owing to common drivers from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans that exert their greatest influence over the Mekong and Chao Phraya basins. This work increases our understanding of streamflow variability over Monsoon Asia. We suggest that future water management in the region should be coordinated between basins, taking into account the states of the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Trends in Transport of Surface Carbonaceous Aerosols to the Upper-Troposphere-Lower-Stratosphere Linked to Expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000–2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), that is, organic carbon and black carbon, to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25°–35°N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80°–120°E, 55°–70°N). Here, CAs are transported upward from the surface to the ULS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equatorward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Operational Forecasting of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems

Monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) are the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, often producing extreme precipitation and hydrological disasters in a region inhabited by nearly two billion people. Despite the importance of these storms, no operational system has automatically identified and tracked LPS in real time in numerical weather prediction model output; many commonly used vortex-tracking algorithms are ill suited for monsoon LPS because of the weak winds and cold cores of these systems. Here, we describe a new system that uses optimized algorithms to identify monsoon LPS in short- to medium-range forecasts from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and a version of the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) adapted and used operationally by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). We also assess the historical performance of these models in forecasting South Asian monsoon LPS, comparing this with the performance of the Integrated Forecasting System of the ECMWF. We assess the accuracy of model predictions of LPS genesis, position, intensity, and precipitation rates for forecast lead times of 1–5 days, yielding quantitative information on model biases to guide operational forecasters and disaster managers. The system we introduce here could be extended to other low-latitude regions affected by dynamically weak, heavily precipitating atmospheric vortices that are often not included in tropical cyclone inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The influence of surface heat fluxes on the growth of idealized monsoon depressions

This study explores the effect of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes on monsoon depressions using a series of idealized convection-permitting simulations. Each experiment is initialized with a small-amplitude wave that is allowed to grow within an environment representative of the South Asian monsoon. Comparing experiments with and without interactive surface heat fluxes, it is found that these fluxes enhance the growth of the simulated vortices. Without interactive surface fluxes, the strengthening period is short and the vortices fail to reach intensities characteristic of stronger monsoon depressions. Using a large set of experiments in which the vertical and meridional shear are systematically varied, it is found that surface heat fluxes enhance intensity the most when the upper-level shear is weak, the lower-level shear and associated moist static energy (MSE) gradient are sufficiently steep, and the lower-level meridional shear is strong. Here, these experiments reveal two different regimes of convection-coupled monsoon depression growth: one in which convection is driven by MSE advection and one in which it is driven by surface heat fluxes and quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent. Both regimes require sufficiently strong meridional shear to achieve initial growth by barotropic instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monsoon Depression Amplification by Horizontal Shear and Humidity Gradients: A Shallow Water Perspective

Transient, synoptic-scale vortices produce a large fraction of total rainfall in most monsoon regions and are often associated with extreme precipitation. However, the mechanism of their amplification remains a topic of active research. For monsoon depressions, which are the most prominent synoptic-scale vortex in the Asian–Australian monsoon, recent work has suggested that meridional gradients in zonal wind in the vortex environment may produce growth through barotropic instability, while meridional gradients in environmental humidity have also been proposed to cause amplification through coupling with precipitating convection. Here, a two-dimensional shallow water model on a sphere with parameterized precipitation is used to examine the relative role played by these two environmental gradients. By systematically varying the meridional moisture gradient and meridional wind shear for both weak, quasi-linear waves and finite-amplitude isolated vortices, we show that rotational winds in the initial vortex are amplified most strongly by meridional shear of the environmental zonal wind, while vortex precipitation rates are most sensitive to environmental moisture gradients. The growth rate in the presence of both gradients is less than the sum of growth rates in the presence of isolated gradients, as the phase relation between moisture and vorticity anomalies becomes distorted with increasing shear. In conclusion, these results suggest that background meridional gradients in both zonal wind and environmental humidity can contribute to the amplification of vortices to monsoon depression strength, but with some degree of decoupling of the dry rotational flow and the moist convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monsoon Extremes: Impacts, Metrics, and Synoptic-Scale Drivers

This project was led by UC Berkeley with a subcontract to UC Davis and collaborative funding at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). It produced new understanding of transient atmospheric disturbances in monsoon regions, the precipitation extremes they produce, and the sensitivity of precipitation and monsoon winds to fine-scale orography (i.e., the narrow mountain ranges that are difficult to represent in conventional Earth system models). Fundamental research undertaken as part of this project led to discovery of new mechanisms that control the generation of extreme weather events and that govern the spatial patterns of intense precipitation in monsoon climates—including the North American monsoon. These research accomplishments are summarized below and documented in a series of 23 publications, 20 of which were led by project personnel (the others were collaborative work led by staff of other projects). One of the publications produced by this project was in Nature, where it was selected for the main cover image, and another was in PNAS. The project also produced two datasets and a tracking algorithm, both of which are publicly available and listed below. The project trained three Ph.D. students and four postdoctoral scientists, the vast majority of whom have progressed to more advanced positions in their scientific careers. Although the university funding for this project ended in 2022, the LBNL component of the project proceeded for almost one year longer; this report is being provided after completion of all components of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Processes that Contribute to Future South Asian Monsoon Differences in E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract Two Earth system models are analyzed to gain insight into the processes that govern projected changes in the South Asian monsoon. Warmer present‐day base state tropical SSTs contribute to coupled processes that produce greater future tropical Pacific warming in CESM2 with less of an increase in season‐mean monsoon precipitation compared to E3SMv2. This is attributed to changes in the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric Walker circulation, with relatively larger increases in precipitation and upper‐level divergence over the tropical Pacific and increases in upper‐level convergence over South Asia in CESM2. The stronger El Niño‐like response in CESM2, which increases Pacific precipitation and upper‐level divergence farther to the east, and larger future ENSO amplitude in E3SMv2, produce a greater relative increase in future monsoon‐ENSO connections in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. This analysis indicates that the key processes that affect future monsoon‐ENSO connections are ENSO amplitude and size of the future tropical Pacific El Niño‐like response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features

Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Tamoffo, Alain T. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon GmbH, ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the Relative Contribution from Tropical Indo-Pacific SST to Asian Monsoon Precipitation Variability Using LIM

Abstract A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances the variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ~25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗