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Develop the next generation GEOS model that enables an increase in resolution and scalability to meet future NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) requirements.
Goal : Develop the next generation GEOS model that enables an increase in resolution and scalability to meet future NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) requirements.
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Aerosol vertical distribution plays an important role in determining aerosol effects on the weather, climate and air quality, but is one of the largest uncertainties in current global chemistry transport models. Operational datasets of global aerosol vertical distribution from observational sources that could constrain models are not adequate.
The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is the global atmospheric data reanalysis for the satellite era produced by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)version 5.12.4. The data are officially distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 data have been widely used by the Earth sciences and application community. Since MERRA-2 data were released in early 2016, the number of registered data users has grown steadily from 1,252 in 2016 to 6477 in 2020. By the end of October 2021, ~16 petabytes (over 360 million files) of data have been distributed to more than 18,900 users. Searching in Google Scholar (https://scholar.google.com/), we have found over 7,000 articles, published between January 2017 and May 2021, involving the use ofMERRA-2 data. The figure shows the numbers for various application areas in which theMERRA-2 data have been used, covering almost all of the application areas defined in NASA Applied Sciences (http://appliedsciences.nasa.gov). The largest number of articles are found in disaster research, with the subcategories ordered in flood, wildfires, hurricanes and cyclones, and other forms of severe weather. In this presentation, we will discuss the preliminary findings from a review of the selected literature that uses MERRA-2 data in applied sciences. The current analytic and interoperable data services at GES DISC are listed, such as the on-the-fly subset and analysis service, NASA Giovanni; THREDDS Data Server(TDS); and Python Jupyter notebooks. In addition, we will introduce two new services for supporting the open sciences: My Dashboard and Related Publications.
Dust plays important roles in energy cycle and climate variations. The dust deposition is the major source of iron in the open ocean, which is an essential micronutrient for phytoplankton growth and therefore may influence the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. Mineral dust can also act as fertilizer for forests over long time periods. Over 35 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) are available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated by using MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interact directly with the radiation parameterization, and radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Dust deposition data along with other major aerosol compositions (e.g. black carbon, sea salt, and sulfate, etc.) are simulated as dry and wet deposition, respectively. The hourly and monthly data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5ox0.625o (latitude x longitude). Quick data exploration of climatology and interannual variations of MERRA-2 aerosol can be done through the online visualization and analysis tool, Giovanni. This presentation, using dust deposition as an example, demonstrates a number of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC. Global distributions of dust depositions, and their seasonal and inter-annual variations are investigated from MERRA-2 monthly aerosol products.
Aerosols play an important role in atmospheric dynamics, climate variations, and Earth's energy cycle by altering the radiation balance in the atmosphere through interaction with clouds, providing fertilizer for forests and canopy, and as a supply of iron to the ocean over long time periods. Studies suggest that much of the feedback between dust aerosols and dynamics is associated with diurnal and synoptic scale variability. However, the lack of sub-daily resolution of aerosols from satellite observations makes it difficult to study the diurnal characteristics, especially over tropical and subtropical regions. Investigation of this topic utilizes over 37 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, in the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) data set, available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, and is continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using data from MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated using the MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interacts directly with radiation parameterization, and is radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Hourly, monthly, and monthly diurnal data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5o x 0.625o (latitude x longitude). By using MERRA-2 hourly and monthly diurnal products, different aerosol diurnal variabilities are observed over North America, Africa, Asia, and Australia, that may be due to different meteorological conditions and aerosol sources. The presentation will also provide an overview of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC, such as how to find and download data, and how to quickly visualize and analyze data online with Giovanni.
Hydrological change in peatlands due to anthropogenic disturbance and global warming can release enormous amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Passive microwave satellite observations are an opportunity to globally monitor these changes. Abundant static and dynamic open water surfaces in peatlands strongly affect observed brightness temperatures (Tb). Here, we account for these contributions in radiative transfer modeling using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) static open water mask and, for the dynamic open water fraction, the simulated inundated area using a version of the GEOS-5 Catchment land surface model that has been modified for peatland areas (PEAT-CLSM). Modeled Tb is compared against two years of SMAP L-band Tb. Preliminary results indicate: (i) a bias reduction when including the static open water fraction in a simple RTM mixing model, and ii) significantly improved correlation between modeled and observed Tb when using land surface output from PEAT-CLSM instead of the operational CLSM.
Aerosol-cloud-chemistry interactions have potentially large but uncertain impacts on Earth's climate. One path to addressing these uncertainties is to construct models that incorporate various components of the Earth system and to test these models against data. To that end, we have previously incorporated the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5). GEOS-5 provides a platform for Earth system modeling, incorporating atmospheric and ocean general circulation models, a land surface model, a data assimilation system, and treatments of atmospheric chemistry and hydrologic cycle. Including GOCART online in this framework has provided a path for interactive aerosol-climate studies; however, GOCART only tracks the mass of aerosols as external mixtures and does not include the detailed treatments of aerosol size distribution and composition (internal mixtures) needed for aerosol-cloud-chemistry-climate studies. To address that need we have incorporated the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) online in GEOS-5. CARMA is a sectional aerosol-cloud microphysical model, capable of treating both aerosol size and composition explicitly be resolving the aerosol distribution into a variable number of size and composition groupings. Here we present first simulations of dust, sea salt, and smoke aerosols in GEOS-5 as treated by CARMA. These simulations are compared to available aerosol satellite, ground, and aircraft data and as well compared to the simulated distributions in our current GOCART based system.
This technical report documents Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM). The GEOS-1 GCM is being used by NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) to produce multiyear data sets for climate research. This report provides a documentation of the model components used in the GEOS-1 GCM, a complete description of model diagnostics available, and a User's Guide to facilitate GEOS-1 GCM experiments.
Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.
Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.
In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.
Abstract Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, laboratory, modeling, and analysis activities, called model experimentation (ModEx). BER’s ModEx is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the AI Architectures and Codesign session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Codesign session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including 1) DOE high-performance computing (HPC) systems, 2) cloud HPC systems, and 3) edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this codesign area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as 1) reimagining codesign, 2) data acquisition to distribution, 3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with Earth system modeling and simulation, and 4) AI-enabled sensor integration into Earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper. Significance Statement This study aims to provide perspectives on AI architectures and codesign approaches for Earth system predictability. Such visionary perspectives are essential because AI-enabled model-data integration has shown promise in improving predictions associated with climate change, perturbations, and extreme events. Our forward-looking ideas guide what is next in codesign to enhance Earth system models, observations, and theory using state-of-the-art and futuristic computational infrastructure.
NASAs Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Pilot Project (FPP) was designed to better understand contemporary carbon fluxes by bringing together state-of-the art models with remote sensing datasets. Here we report on simulations using NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) which was used to evaluate the consistency of two different sets of observationally constrained land and ocean fluxes with atmospheric CO2 records. Despite the strong data constraint, the average difference in annual terrestrial biosphere flux between the two land (NASA Ames CASA and CASA-GFED) models is 1.7 Pg C for 2009-2010. Ocean models (NOBM and ECCO2-Darwin) differ by 35 in their global estimates of carbon flux with particularly strong disagreement in high latitudes. Based upon combinations of terrestrial and ocean fluxes, GEOS-5 reasonably simulated the seasonal cycle observed at northern hemisphere surface sites and by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) while the model struggled to simulate the seasonal cycle at southern hemisphere surface locations. Though GEOS-5 was able to reasonably reproduce the patterns of XCO2 observed by GOSAT, it struggled to reproduce these aspects of AIRS observations. Despite large differences between land and ocean flux estimates, resulting differences in atmospheric mixing ratio were small, typically less than 5 ppmv at the surface and 3 ppmv in the XCO2 column. A statistical analysis based on the variability of observations shows that flux differences of these magnitudes are difficult to distinguish from natural variability, regardless of measurement platform.
An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.
The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operated in U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational forecast guidance for ozone and fine particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5μm (PM2.5) over the contiguous 48 U.S. states (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The existing NAQFC uses climatological chemical lateral boundary conditions ( CLBCs), which cannot capture pollutant intrusion events originating outside of the model domain. In this study, we developed a model framework to use dynamic CLBCs from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS) to drive NAQFC. A mapping of the GEOS chemical species to the CMAQ’s Carbon Bond 5 (CB05)-Aero6 species was developed. The utilization of the GEOS dynamic CLBCs in NAQFC showed the best overall performance in simulating the surface observations during the Saharan dust intrusion and Canadian wildfire events in summer 2015.The simulated PM2.5 was improved from 0.18 to 0.37 and the mean bias was reduced from -6.74 μg/m3 to -2.96 μg/m3 over CONUS. Although the effect of CLBCs on the PM2.5 correlation was mainly near the inflow boundary, its impact on the background concentrations reached further inside the domain. The CLBCs could affect background ozone concentrations through the inflows of ozone itself and its precursors, such as CO. It was further found that the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from satellite retrievals correlated well with the column CO and elemental carbon from GEOS. The satellite-derived AOT CLBCs generally improved the model performance for the wildfire intrusion events during a summer 2018 case study, and demonstrated how satellite observations of atmospheric composition could be used as an alternative method to capture the air quality effects of intrusions when the global model CLBCs, such as GEOS CLBCs, are not available.
The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been developed in the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. From its roots in chemical transport and as a General Circulation Model, the GEOS model has been extended to an Earth System Model based on a modular construction using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), combining elements developed in house in the GMAO with others that are imported through collaborative research. It is used extensively for research and for product generation, both as a free-running model and as the core of the GMAO's data assimilation system. In recent years, the GMAO's modeling and assimilation efforts have been strongly supported by Piers Sellers, building on both his earlier legacy as an observationally oriented model developer and his post-astronaut career as a dynamic leader into new territory. Piers' long-standing interest in the carbon cycle and the combination of models with observations motivates this presentation, which will focus on the representation of the carbon cycle in the GEOS Earth System Model. Examples will include: (i) the progression from specified land-atmosphere surface fluxes to computations with an interactive model component (Catchment-CN), along with constraints on vegetation distributions using satellite observations; (ii) the use of high-resolution satellite observations to constrain human-generated inputs to the atmosphere; (iii) studies of the consistency of the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations with those in the model simulations. The presentation will focus on year-to-year variations in elements of the carbon cycle, specifically on how the observations can inform the representation of mechanisms in the model and lead to integrity in global carbon dioxide simulations. Further, applications of the GEOS model to the planning of new carbon-climate observations will be addressed, as an example of the work that was strongly supported by Piers in the last months of his leadership of Earth Science at NASA Goddard.