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DOE OSTI2024

Error field predictability and consequences for ITER

Abstract ITER coil tolerances are re-evaluated using the modern understanding of coupling to least-stable plasma modes and an updated center-line-traced model of ITER’s coil windings. This reassessment finds the tolerances to be conservative through a statistical, linear study of n = 1 error fields (EFs) due to tilted, shifted misplacements and nominal windings of central solenoid and poloidal field coils within tolerance. We also show that a model-based correction scheme remains effective even when metrology quality is sub-optimal, and compare this to projected empirical correction schemes. We begin with an analysis of the necessity of error field correction (EFC) for daily operation in ITER using scalign laws for the EF penetration threshold. We then consider the predictability of EF dominant mode overlap across early planned ITER scenarios and, as measuring EFs in high power scenarios can pose risks to the device, the potential for extrapolation to the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS). We find that carefully designing a scenario matching currents proportionally to those of the IBS is far more important than plasma shape or profiles in accurately measuring an optimal correction current set.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Progress on the MARVEL Cybersecurity by Design Model-Based Systems Engineering Project

Formal model-based systems engineering (MBSE) combines a model, systems thinking, and systems engineering to visually depict the boundaries, context, and behavior of interconnected systems, facilitating effective design, development, and utilization of engineered systems throughout the systems engineering lifecycle. Although nuclear reactor vendors employ these tools to integrate functionality, performance, and safety, they are not yet addressing digital risk concerns introduced by use of operational technology, such as digital instrumentation and control systems. To accomplish this objective, the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) microreactor was used as an MBSE case study. This real-world application provides a first-of-a-kind opportunity to demonstrate the benefits of integrating digital risk and cybersecurity into the MBSE design process of a nuclear reactor. This paper provides an update of the ongoing MARVEL Cyber MBSE project as it specifically relates to the integration of digital risk management and cybersecurity by design.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Safety Analysis for Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs)

A Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) is a Department of Energy (DOE) construct that defines the extent to which a nuclear facility can be operated safely. It includes a description of hazards, safe boundaries, and hazard controls. The authors assert that a Digital Safety Analysis (DgSA) is far superior to a legacy DSA for several reasons: • The underling database is structured such that it is possible to perform a comprehensive design review and safety analysis by iterating systematically across a hierarchy of linked objects versus a redundant and spotty review by entities of various abilities under unknown resource and schedule constraints. • The analysis of a new design can discover elements that are similar to elements in previous designs. The discovery of similarities is made possible by using the same structure for the underlying database for each new DgSA. The “prior learning” from previous designs is then applied automatically to new designs. • Outputs from the DgSA are from a single source to ensure consistency among various views of the same information. After the DgSA is released, the continued use of a single source implements a configuration management program to ensure consistency between the design basis, the design, the built system, and system procedures. • The development of the DgSA is agile in that any change in a linked object triggers an analysis of impacts on other linked objects and updates of linked objects are made accordingly. After the DgSA is released, the continued maintenance of these links and objects automates the “unreviewed safety question” process.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Protection and Validated Models to Enable Deployment of High Penetrations of Solar PV (PV-MOD)

The availability and validation of various PV models in commercial tools differ, with some models not yet thoroughly validated for advanced inverter functionalities and reliable performance under weak system conditions. Many existing models do not fully incorporate new inverter control functions, which can affect system stability. The increasing deployment of solar PV and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), including distributed energy resources (DERs), is influencing the reliable operation of protection schemes in distribution systems and microgrids. Emerging adaptive protection schemes (APS) offer new opportunities for protecting these systems during varying configurations and DER operating conditions, though their demonstration and validation remain limited. Adaptive protection schemes face similar challenges, as they are typically designed for specific configurations. There is a growing need for tools and methodologies to streamline the deployment of adaptive protection for safe and reliable DER integration. The project main objective was to develop and validate high-fidelity generic models of solar PV facilities for stability, protection, EMT, and QSTS analyses. This objective was achieved, and these models can now be integrated into commercial software tools, enabling utilities, vendors, and developers to study high-penetration PV systems more confidently. The project also demonstrated advanced applications of these models, including the design and deployment of adaptive protection schemes in high-penetration field applications and microgrids, supporting grid safety and reliability. Several milestones were reached by the end of the project. A sophisticated inverter test plan was developed, and inverters representative of the North American marketplace were selected. EPRI and NREL tested various inverters, conforming to IEEE standards. Improvements were made to existing generic models of IBR units, IBR plants, and aggregated feeders for various analyses. The first generic electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for a solar PV plant was developed, conforming to IEEE Std 2800™-2022 and validated against laboratory measurements of a 2.2 MVA large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) inverter. That model was then used to produce reference responses illustrating examples of validated and verified IBR plant models that pass or fail tests for technical minimum capability and performance as specified in the IEEE standard. The developed, tested, and validated generic models can be used for transmission planning, stability assessments, expansion planning, and evaluating potential future IBR interconnection requirements. They can also support interconnection screens and conformity assessments of IBR plants, including solar PV. The project significantly contributed to the ongoing standardization and model-based representation and verification of IBR responses. The project further addressed challenges of common distribution protection schemes with increasing deployment of DER by developing, validating, and demonstrating adaptive protection schemes (APS) that can improve the reliable and safe integration of DER into distribution systems. New APS were designed using improved DER models for three common distribution systems: a radial feeder, a meshed network, and a microgrid. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the APS were conducted, successfully showing their effectiveness and selectivity. Proof-of-concept field demonstration was achieved for two APS, i.e., one on a radial feeder and another one in a microgrid. Field demonstration could not be achieved for the APS on a meshed network, primarily due apprehension of one utility partner and also due to limited access to the protective algorithms in the network protectors. Guidelines developed from the lessons learned in the project lay out the general process followed in the design, installation, and commissioning of APS for various distribution systems. Distribution utility partners’ apprehension about field demonstration of the new APS were addressed—with varying success—by taking a stepped risk-management approach of modeling of a wide range of sensitivities first, performing in-depth proof-of-concept testing in the laboratory including HIL next, and finally deliberately implementing and commissioning the actual protection equipment and algorithms into parts of—or in parallel operation to—the three real distribution systems. Future work should include pilot projects that further show the acceptable performance of the developed APS before these schemes be rolled out more widely. Inclusion of both utility and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in future projects could increase chances of successful field demonstration. Despite challenges in achieving the field demonstration goal of the project for all three APS, the research significantly contributed to the innovation of adaptive protection solutions for scalable and reliable DER integration into distribution systems. This project significantly enhances the understanding of the impact of using appropriate inverter models on distribution and transmission (T&D) systems. By addressing the limitations of existing generic models, the project introduces high-fidelity models for stability, protection, electromagnetic transient (EMT), and quasi-static time series (QSTS) analyses. These models, integrated into commercial software tools, enable utilities, vendors, and developers to confidently study high-penetration PV systems. The project also demonstrates advanced applications, including adaptive protection schemes (APS) for distribution systems and microgrids, ensuring grid safety and reliability. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods are evident through the development and validation of sophisticated inverter test plans and the selection of representative inverters. Testing by EPRI and NREL on retail, commercial, and utility-scale inverters, conforming to IEEE standards, underscores the robustness of the models. Improvements to existing generic models for various analyses further enhance their validity and applicability. The project also identifies gaps in common distribution protection schemes and designed new APS using improved DER models, demonstrating their effectiveness through modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing. The project’s benefits to the public are manifold. By advancing the standardization and model-based representation of IBR response, it supports transmission planning, stability assessments, and future IBR interconnection requirements. The generic models can facilitate better communication between transmission planners and developers, supporting expected IBR plant capability and performance. Additionally, the development of APS for radial feeders, meshed networks, and microgrids supports the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems, enhancing grid reliability and safety. The project’s emphasis on thorough testing and simplicity in design ensures practical and scalable solutions for DER integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heat pump water heater enhanced with phase change materials thermal energy storage: Modeling study

A promising solution to improve the first hour rating (FHR) of a heat pump water heater (HPWH) involves employing a secondary tank which contains phase change material (PCM) capsules. To better understand the influence of PCM thermal storage on the HPWH operational performance, a dynamic model was developed to simulate and analyze the behavior of a newly developed HPWH technology that incorporates PCM storage into a standard HPWH to optimize key parameters such as the uniform energy factor and FHR. Mathematical models of several key components of the proposed HPWH-PCM integrated thermal energy storage (TES) system, e.g., water heater tank, PCM TES tank, evaporator, compressor, and expansion valve, have been elaborated. Also, a model-based control co-simulation platform was developed to integrate a embed PCM storage HPWH dynamic model with a control model for better supporting control design, analysis, verification, and validation. The model accuracy has been validated through comparing simulation results with lab test results, with a mean average percentage error of <5.5% for most of the selected performance variables. In addition, using the developed co-simulation platform, the demand response control strategy was studied to evaluate the load flexibility of the combined HPWH-PCM storage system by shifting system power usage to outside of the 3.5 h peak load period.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Reactor Scale-Up Methodology from Lab-Scale to Pilot-Scale Operations: Numerical Modeling of THFA Dehydration to DHP in Packed-Bed Reactors

This manuscript discusses developing a model-based scale-up methodology for a successful technology transfer of gas-phase catalytic reactors from a lab-scale to a pilot-scale operation. The manuscript demonstrates the methodology for gas-phase dehydration of tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol (THFA) to dihydropyran (DHP) process over commercial Al 2 O 3 catalysts. A two-dimensional reactor model was developed using COMSOL Multiphysics 6.1 software. The model solves heat and mass transport equations in bed-scale and particle scales simultaneously. This powerful feature enables accurate prediction of the heat and mass transfer limitations in pilot-scale reactors, if any exists. Further, the model uses isothermal lab-scale experimental data to derive and validate the reaction chemistry, flow fields and boundary conditions. The model was then scaled-up to project conversion, selectivity, yield and formation rate of DHP in a pilot-scale reactor. The results highlight the complex nature of chemistry, heat, and mass transfer effects in lab-scale and pilot-scale reactors. The model results inform the possible operational limitations of the pilot-scale reactor and design strategies to improve process efficiency. Although the scale-up approach is explained through the THFA dehydration process, the methodology is applicable to any catalytic packed-bed reactor models for a successful process scale-up.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Energy and Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture Using ePTFE-Based Laminate-Structured Gas–Solid Contactors

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will play a significant role in limiting global warming if implemented on a large scale. Direct air capture (DAC) is a scalable approach for removing atmospheric carbon, yet the true scope of its scalability remains unclear due to the early stage of technology development and high first plant costs. This study provides groundwork for understanding the technoeconomic trade-offs in developing DAC systems using laminate-structured gas–solid contactors, encompassing the analysis of both contactor and process design spaces. The robust mass transfer and process models outlined in this study provide tools for evaluating DAC processes and designing DAC plants based on cost and energy analysis. First, the key contactor geometrical parameters are identified to understand the CO 2 productivity–energy demand trade-offs, where geometries yielding higher mass transfer rates can achieve higher CO 2 productivities at the expense of energy consumption by fans and steam use. Next, a detailed process parametric study is conducted for DAC systems coupled with steam-assisted temperature-vacuum swing adsorption (S-TVSA) to visualize the trade-offs in the multidimensional design space. The main cost driver dramatically changes over different process conditions, but the operating cost prevailed on the Pareto front, with potential to operate as low as 150 $/tonne-CO 2 (within the cost range of 148–504 $/tonne-CO 2 in this study where the DAC system is coupled with industrial facilities for steam production).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient and assured reinforcement learning-based building HVAC control with heterogeneous expert-guided training

Abstract Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for nearly half of building energy consumption and $$20\%$$ of total energy consumption in the US. Their operation is also crucial for ensuring the physical and mental health of building occupants. Compared with traditional model-based HVAC control methods, the recent model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based methods have shown good performance while do not require the development of detailed and costly physical models. However, these model-free DRL approaches often suffer from long training time to reach a good performance, which is a major obstacle for their practical deployment. In this work, we present a systematic approach to accelerate online reinforcement learning for HVAC control by taking full advantage of the knowledge from domain experts in various forms . Specifically, the algorithm stages include learning expert functions from existing abstract physical models and from historical data via offline reinforcement learning, integrating the expert functions with rule-based guidelines, conducting training guided by the integrated expert function and performing policy initialization from distilled expert function. Moreover, to ensure that the learned DRL-based HVAC controller can effectively keep room temperature within the comfortable range for occupants, we design a runtime shielding framework to reduce the temperature violation rate and incorporate the learned controller into it. Experimental results demonstrate up to 8.8 X speedup in DRL training from our approach over previous methods, with low temperature violation rate.

Xu, Shichao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of fusion plasma burn control via real-time, sub-divertor neutral gas isotopic and compositional analysis

The ability to provide fusion burn control without requiring physical access through the first wall and fuel breeding blankets, would be vital for any future, magnetically confined fusion power reactor. A multi-sensor, fusion fuel cycle exhaust, neutral gas analysis system on JET, capable of delivering real time data, and accessing only the sub-divertor region, provides an excellent example of such capability. Optimized for and operated during the deuterium–tritium experimental campaigns 2 and 3 (DTE2, DTE3), it is proving valuable for planning to explore fusion reactor burn control in ITER with a comparable diagnostic system called the Diagnostic Residual Gas Analyzer (DRGA). This paper aims to show feasibility of developing model-based controllers for ITER and next generation, reactor-relevant devices, by building both on the empirical experience in JET-DTE2, and on the already emerging experience on developing such models specifically for ITER. The paper begins with a specific use-case from JET-DTE2, pertaining to the observed sensitivity of the fusion neutron yield on the concentration of isotopic helium-3 ( 3 He), with data from one of the high-performance DT shots exhibited with emphasis on the 3 He measurement via the sub-divertor. Then, a first model is developed and then explored with simulations that aim to discover how well the controllers in the model react to either insufficient levels of 3 He or excessive levels of 3 He. The simulations then explore potential impact from a delay in the measurement (or the response) that would be comparable to the ∼1 s, conductance limited response for the ITER DRGA system, currently in its final design. The simulations show that control is feasible, and that its effectiveness is not significantly impacted by such delay.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACTIVE

The Automated Control Testbed for Integration, Verification, and Emulation (ACTIVE) framework is a software platform designed to support the optimized operation and management of a wide range of building types. It enables the development, testing, and validation of diverse control strategies, including AI-based, rule-based, and model-based approaches. The platform facilitates a seamless transition from simulation-based evaluation of control strategies to real-world field validation and deployment. ACTIVE supports the full building management lifecycle, encompassing data acquisition and management, system monitoring, optimized control, adaptive learning services, device dispatch and coordination, as well as advanced analytics and visualization. Together, these capabilities provide an integrated environment for improving building performance, operational efficiency, reducing energy cost, and reliability.

Smith, Robert [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Development of Heat Transfer Model-Based Control Algorithms of Liquid Sodium Purification System: Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation Advanced Controls

Monitoring the operation of sodium purification system is essential for efficient operation of sodium fast reactors. In this work, a heat transfer model has been developed for monitoring the plugging meter and cold trap systems at the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) liquid sodium facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The model of the purification system was developed by treating the respective aspects of the cold trap purification loop and plugging meter diagnostic loop as two separate control volumes using information from the METL piping and instrumentation diagram (P&ID). A model predictive controller was designed using first order differential equations with the specified boundary conditions. The system behavior was studied with a tuned optimized procedure using the internal cold trap temperature and plugging meter outlet temperature as control variables, and the air blower temperature as an independent variable respectively. Results of computer simulations obtained in this study compared favorably with experimental data showing very good reference tracking response with negligible overshoot as both plugging meter and cold trap physical models approach the setpoint.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-IR UAV-based sensing platform with deep learning to Identify and Quantify Gaseous Emission in Gas Flares

This report details the development and evaluation of a Mid-Infrared (Mid-IR) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-based sensing platform integrated with deep learning algorithms for the identification and quantification of gaseous emissions in gas flares. The project, spearheaded by Omega Optics, Inc., aimed to address environmental monitoring challenges by leveraging advanced photonic technologies and autonomous UAV operations. The research focused on designing, optimizing, and fabricating photonic crystal waveguides and grating couplers to enhance the sensitivity and accuracy of gas detection. A comprehensive drone-based system was developed, featuring a miniaturized sensor, GPS module, and microcontroller communication network for real-time gas concentration monitoring. The system's adaptive sampling algorithm, implemented using the Robot Operating System (ROS), enables autonomous detection and localization of gas emission sources. Preliminary results demonstrate the platform's capability to detect and monitor gas emissions with high precision, cost-effectiveness, and scalability. Future work will expand upon this foundation by introducing 3D wind model-based learning for dynamic environmental conditions and further enhancing the user interface and data processing algorithms to support broader environmental monitoring applications. Overall, this project represents a significant step forward in UAV-based environmental sensing technologies, offering robust solutions for detecting and mitigating the impacts of gaseous emissions on public health and safety.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF EVENT TREES AND FAULT TREES: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH

In the past few decades, increasing complexity in modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components and by the fact that the system operations involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, plant operations, cyber-security). Current safety/reliability modeling approaches to such systems are labor intensive, difficult to learn, and rely heavily on simplistic Boolean logic to depict failure propagation and accident progression. While these methods serve well for simple systems (i.e., linear causal systems with limited small inter- and intra-system interactions), their results are difficult to verify when modeling complex systems (typically performed through the extensive use of modeling assumptions). The development of new methods is addressed to meet these challenges through a model-based system engineering (MBSE) lens. Under MBSE philosophy, every aspect of the system (form or function) is represented by a model that completely characterizes its architecture or behavior. MBSE approach greatly improves the management of design, analysis and verification of complex systems. An integration of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) methods with MBSE models is proposed to perform safety/reliability analyses of engineering systems. In particular, MBSE representation of the system (performed using Systems Modeling Language [SysML]) is coupled with DPRA methods to automatically generate event trees and fault trees.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗