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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Systems and methods for distributed power system model calibration

A computing device for distributed power system model calibration is provided. The computing device is programmed to receive event data and model response data associated with a model to simulate, wherein the model includes a plurality of parameters, divide the event data into a plurality of sets, wherein each set includes associated parameters, and transmit the plurality of sets of event data to a plurality of client nodes. Each client node of the plurality of client nodes is programmed to analyze a corresponding set of event data to determine updated parameters for the model. The computing device is further programmed to receive a plurality of updated parameters for the model from the plurality of client nodes and analyze the received plurality of updated parameters to determine at least one adjusted parameter.

Wang, Honggang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rate and temperature independent model calibrations for J2 plasticity and Wilkins failure models for 17-4PH H1150 stainless steel

This memo’s objective is to report a calibration of the J2 plasticity model with the Wilkins ductile failure criterion for 17-4 PH H1150 stainless steel under slow loading at room temperature. The calibration of the hardening function was based on uniaxial tension tests, while that of the failure model included data from tension tests on notched specimens, a butterfly specimen shear test, and a set of interrupted compression tests on shear hat specimens. The procedure was that described in, minus the rate and temperature dependence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements in Constitutive Model Calibration: Leveraging the Power of Full‐Field DIC Measurements and In Situ Load Path Selection for Reliable Parameter Inference

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are essential for computationally supported high-consequence engineering decisions. Historically, characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data are collected for a specific model of interest, (3) use deterministic methods that provide best-fit parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work brings together several recent advancements into an improved workflow called interlaced characterization and calibration (ICC) that advances the state-of-the-art in constitutive model calibration. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) quantifies parameter uncertainty through Bayesian inference and (4) incorporates these advancements into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework is demonstrated here on the calibration of a material model using simulated full-field data for an aluminium cruciform specimen being deformed biaxially. The cruciform is actively driven through the myopically preferred load path using Bayesian optimal experimental design, which selects load steps that yield the maximum expected information gain (EIG). Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the model predictions of full-field displacements, and fast surrogate models are built to approximate the input-output relationships of the expensive finite element model. Furthermore, the tools developed and demonstrated here show that high-fidelity constitutive models can be efficiently and reliably calibrated with quantified uncertainty, thus supporting credible decision-making and potentially increasing the agility of solid mechanics modelling by enabling utilization of computational simulations at earlier stages of the design cycle.

Bayesian optimal experimental design↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reactive burn model calibration using high-throughput initiation experiments at sub-millimeter length scales

We report a first-of-its-kind model calibration was performed using Sandia National Laboratories’ high-throughput initiation (HTI) experiment for two types of vapor-deposited explosive films consisting of hexanitrostilbene (HNS) or pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). These films exhibit prompt initiation, and they reach steady detonation at sub-millimeter length scales. Following prior work on HNS, we test the hypothesis of approximating these explosive films as fine-grained homogeneous solids with simple Arrhenius kinetics burn models. The model calibration process is described herein using a single-step as well as a two-step Arrhenius rate law, and it consists of systematic parameter sampling leading to a reduction in the model degrees of freedom. Multiple local minima are observed; results are given for seven different optimized parameter sets. Each model set is further evaluated in a two-dimensional simulation of the critical failure thickness for a sustained detonation. Overall, the two-step Arrhenius kinetics model captures the observed behavior for HNS; however, neither model produces a good fit to the PETN data. We hypothesize that the HTI results for PETN correspond to a heterogeneous response, owing to the smaller reaction zone of PETN compared to HNS (i.e., it does not homogenize the fine-grained hot spots as well). Future work should consider using the ignition and growth model for PETN, as well as other reactive burn models such as xHVRB, AWSD, PiSURF, and CREST.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian optimal experimental design for constitutive model calibration

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high/consequence engineering decisions, which necessitates a high confidence in the calibration of and predictions from complex material models. However, the calibration and validation of material models is often a discrete, multi-stage process that is decoupled from material characterization activities, which means the data collected does not always align with the data that is needed. To address this issue, an integrated workflow for delivering an enhanced characterization and calibration procedure—Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—is introduced and demonstrated. Further, this framework leverages Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), which creates a line of communication between model calibration needs and data collection capabilities in order to optimize the information content gathered from the experiments for model calibration. Eventually, the ICC framework will be used in quasi real-time to actively control experiments of complex specimens for the calibration of a high-fidelity material model. This work presents the critical first piece of algorithm development and a demonstration in determining the optimal load path of a cruciform specimen with simulated data. Calibration results, obtained via Bayesian inference, from the integrated ICC approach are compared to calibrations performed by choosing the load path a priori based on human intuition, as is traditionally done. The calibration results are communicated through parameter uncertainties which are propagated to the model output space (i.e. stress–strain). In these exemplar problems, data generated within the ICC framework resulted in calibrated model parameters with reduced measures of uncertainty compared to the traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application and evaluation of a pattern-based building energy model calibration method using public building datasets

Building performance simulation has been adopted to support decision making in the building life cycle. An essential issue is to ensure a building energy simulation model can capture the reality and complexity of buildings and their systems in both the static characteristics and dynamic operations. Building energy model calibration is a technique that takes various types of measured performance data (e.g., energy use) and tunes key model parameters to match the simulated results with the actual measurements. This study performed an application and evaluation of an automated pattern-based calibration method on commercial building models that were generated based on characteristics of real buildings. A public building dataset that includes high-level building attributes (e.g., building type, vintage, total floor area, number of stories, zip code) of 111 buildings in San Francisco, California, USA, was used to generate building models in EnergyPlus. Monthly level energy use calibrations were then conducted by comparing building model results against the actual buildings' monthly electricity and natural gas consumption. The results showed 57 out of 111 buildings were successfully calibrated against actual buildings, while the remaining buildings showed opportunities for future calibration improvements. Enhancements to the pattern-based model calibration method are identified to expand its use for: (1) central heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with chillers, (2) space heating and hot water heating with electricity sources, (3) mixed-use building types, and (4) partially occupied buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

2002 VCMPO Model Calibration and Home-Based Travel Survey

The 2001-2002 Model Calibration and Home-Based Travel Survey was a study conducted in Volusia County, Florida. One of the major purposes of the survey project was to collect information to allow for a better understanding of the travel habits and patterns of residents within Volusia County. The project was jointly funded by the Florida Department of Transportation, Volusia County, and the Volusia County MPO. Demographic and trip data were collected for 2,727 households from February 20, 2002, to February 28, 2002. Respondents were asked to record their travel and activities for a 48-hour period. Detailed information regarding their trips, including mode of transportation, trip purpose, departure and arrival times, and number of passengers, were gathered from 13,408 trips.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Model Calibration Method for Grid-Forming Inverters Using Iterative Bayesian Optimization

As inverter-based resources (IBRs) are rapidly deployed, especially at the distribution and microgrid levels, the need to include their accurate representations in power systems models increases. With well-calibrated models, IBR-interactions can be examined, preventing any stability and operational issues, especially in islanded systems. This paper proposes a method to calibrate generic inverter models using Bayesian optimization, but with a parameter-grouping approach to improve speed and accuracy. This approach is illustrated for a grid-forming inverter using synthetic data and field measurements from a simple IBRbased microgrid. Tests show that the calibration algorithm has modest computation cost and is robust to noisy measurements..

Biswas, Shuchismita↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Spectacular Viscoelastic Model Calibration for 828/D230/Alox Generated from Legacy Sandia Data

The nonlinear viscoelastic Spectacular model is calibrated to the thermo-mechanical behavior of 828/D230/Alox with an alox volume fraction of 20 %. Legacy experimental data from Sandia’s polymer properties database (PPD) is used to calibrate the model. Based on known densities of the epoxy 828/D230 and the alox filler, the alox volume fractions listed on the PPD were likely reported incorrectly. The alox volume fractions are recalculated here. Using the recalculated alox volume fractions, the PPD contains experimental data for 828/D230/Alox with alox volume fractions of 16 %, 24 %, and 33 %, so the thermo-mechanical behavior at 20 % alox volume fraction is estimated by interpolating between the bounding cases of of 16 % and 24 %. Because the Spectacularmodel can be fairly challenging to calibrate, the calibration procedure is described in detail. Several of the calibration steps involve inverse parameter identification, where an experiment is simulated and parameters are iteratively updated until the model response matches the experimental data. As the PPD does not fully describe all experimental procedures, the experimental simulations use assumed thermal and mechanical loading rates that are typical for the viscoelastic characterization of epoxies. Spectacular uses four independent relaxation functions related to volumetric (ƒ 1 ), shear (ƒ 2 ), thermal strain (ƒ 3 ), and thermal relaxations (ƒ 4 ). The previous SPEC model form, also known as the universal_polymer model, uses two independent relaxation functions related to volumetric and thermal relaxation (ƒ ν = ƒ 1 = ƒ 3 = ƒ 4 ) and shear relaxation (ƒ s = ƒ 2 ). The two constitutive choices are briefly evaluated here, where it is found that the four relaxation function approach of Spectacular was better suited for fitting the coefficient of thermal expansion during both heating and cooling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

An initial exploration of Bayesian model calibration for estimating the composition of rocks and soils on Mars

The Mars Curiosity rover carries an instrument, ChemCam, designed to measure the composition of surface rocks and soil using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The measured spectra from this instrument must be analyzed to identify the component elements in the target sample, as well as their relative proportions. This process, which we call disaggregation, is complicated by so-called matrix effects, which describe nonlinear changes in the relative heights of emission lines as an unknown function of composition due to atomic interactions within the LIBS plasma. In this work, we explore the use of the plasma physics code ATOMIC, developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, for the disaggregation task. ATOMIC has recently been used to model LIBS spectra and can robustly reproduce matrix effects from first principles. The ability of ATOMIC to predict LIBS spectra presents an exciting opportunity to perform disaggregation in a manner not yet tried in the LIBS community, namely via Bayesian model calibration. However, using it directly to solve our inverse problem is computationally intractable due to the large parameter space and the computation time required to produce a single output. Therefore, we also explore the use of emulators as a fast solution for this analysis. We discuss a proof of concept Gaussian process emulator for disaggregating two-element compounds of sodium and copper. The training and test datasets were simulated with ATOMIC using a Latin hypercube design. After testing the performance of the emulator, we successfully recover the composition of 25 test spectra with Bayesian model calibration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invertible neural networks for E3SM land model calibration and simulation

We apply an invertible neural network (INN) for E3SM land model calibration and simulation with eight parameters at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. INN provides bijective (two-way) mappings between inputs and outputs, thus it can solve probabilistic inverse problems and forward approximations simultaneously. We demonstrate INN's inverse and forward capability in both synthetic and real-data applications. Results indicate that INN produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and it generates model outputs close to the forward model simulations. Additionally, both the inverse and forward evaluations in INN are computationally efficient which allows for rapid integration of observations for parameter estimation and fast model predictions.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distribution System Model Calibration Algorithms

SAND2021-15065 O This release contains Python code for two distribution system model calibration algorithms as well as some sample data and documentation for the algorithms and code. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Blakely, Logan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distribution System Model Calibration for GMLC 3.3.3 "Incipient Failure Identification for Common Grid Asset Classes" - Project Summary

Distribution system model calibration is a key enabling task for incipient failure identification within the distribution system. This report summarizes the work and publications by Sandia National Laboratories on the GMLC project titled “Incipient Failure Identification for Common Grid Asset Classes”. This project was a joint effort between Sandia National Laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The included work covers distribution system topology identification, transformer groupings, phase identification, regulator and tap position estimation, and the open-source release and implementation of the developed algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗