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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

HP-FLEX: Field demonstration of the semantics-driven configuration of a Model Predictive Control system to make heat pumps flexible

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant potential for optimizing building operations and enabling demand flexibility. However, the widespread adoption of MPC is hindered by complex manual configuration and commissioning processes that must be conducted by control experts working alongside building operators. These challenges drive up costs and reduce scalability, particularly when technical human resources and building automation systems are limited, such as in small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs). This paper demonstrates how semantic standards, specifically ASHRAE 223P, can accelerate the adoption of MPC applications for load flexibility in SMCBs. The authors present a replicable control framework, titled “HP-FLEX” that leverages a building’s semantic model to bootstrap the required data configuration for an MPC controller developed for optimizing heat pump systems as flexible grid resources. The semantic model helps streamline the deployment workflow, particularly for site setup, data/control commissioning, and model setup. This integration enhances portability, transferability, and scalability of the HP-FLEX MPC, which has been developed to support MPC-based supervisory HVAC controllers in SMCBs. Additionally, the paper details the required building and thermostat metadata information to enable the HP-FLEX MPC based on field demonstrations. The new workflow was tested in a small commercial building located in California, U.S., and demonstrated a load shifting performance of 9% based on a dynamic pricing signal that varies by the hour. This work provides a practical pathway for transitioning sophisticated building applications from custom to standardized semantic representations, supporting the broader adoption of advanced control strategies like MPC. The framework also establishes a foundation for evolving metadata requirements as applications mature while maintaining compatibility with industry standards.

Paul, Lazlo↗
DOE OSTI2025

HP-FLEX: Field Demonstration of the Semantics-Driven Configuration of a Model Predictive Control System to Make Heat Pumps Flexible

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant potential for optimizing building operations and enabling demand flexibility. However, the widespread adoption of MPC is hindered by complex manual configuration and commissioning processes that must be conducted by control experts working alongside building operators. These challenges drive up costs and reduce scalability, particularly when technical human resources and building automation systems are limited, such as in small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs). This paper demonstrates how semantic standards, specifically ASHRAE 223P, can accelerate the adoption of MPC applications for load flexibility in SMCBs. The authors present a replicable control framework, titled “HP-FLEX” that leverages a building’s semantic model to bootstrap the required data configuration for an MPC controller developed for optimizing heat pump systems as flexible grid resources. The semantic model helps streamline the deployment workflow, particularly for site setup, data/control commissioning, and model setup. This integration enhances portability, transferability, and scalability of the HP-FLEX MPC, which has been developed to support MPC-based supervisory HVAC controllers in SMCBs. Additionally, the paper details the required building and thermostat metadata information to enable the HP-FLEX MPC based on field demonstrations. The new workflow was tested in a small commercial building located in California, U.S., and demonstrated a load shifting performance of 9% based on a dynamic pricing signal that varies by the hour. This work provides a practical pathway for transitioning sophisticated building applications from custom to standardized semantic representations, supporting the broader adoption of advanced control strategies like MPC. The framework also establishes a foundation for evolving metadata requirements as applications mature while maintaining compatibility with industry standards.

Paul, Lazlo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Closing the loop: model-predictive control for a closed-circuit reverse osmosis system

This article presents a model-predictive controller (MPC) for the maximization of the energy efficiency of a closed-circuit desalination reverse osmosis (CCRO) system. CCRO is a process for producing drinking water that is based on a cyclic operation with the following two phases: (a) filtration and (b) drain. In this article, we test model predictive control for optimal control of this process. The most important features of our approach are as follows: (a) the selection of a model structure that enables reliable forecasts of the filtration phase (up to 3 h), (b) an on-line model calibration strategy that ensures model forecast reliability, and (c) the satisfaction of equipment safety and operational constraints on the selected setpoints. We challenge this through deliberate introduction of changes in the unmeasured feed concentration and the applied constraints. Our results indicate that frequent model parameter updates are critical to maintain model reliability for MPC purposes. In addition, we illustrate that parameter identifiability is not guaranteed and that deliberate variation in flow rates is necessary even though the process never operates in steady state. Finally, MPC can compute flow rate setpoints that maximize the energy efficiency of the CCRO process while satisfying the applicable equipment and safety constraints.

closed-circuit reverse osmosis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Practical challenges of model predictive control (MPC) for grid interactive small and medium commercial buildings

To the urgent call for mitigating climate change, substantial initiatives have been undertaken to deploy grid-interactive heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) controls, such as model predictive control (MPC) for buildings. These efforts typically aim to curtail peak energy demand, shift load and enhance overall energy efficiency. With the recent development of low-cost MPC technologies that don’t require extensive instrumentation or manual modeling, small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), which rarely utilize advanced HVAC control systems, have become candidates for grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). However, despite the potential benefits and maturity of the technology itself, several practical challenges remain in real-world implementation. In this paper, we share the practical challenges that we have encountered in implementing and testing three types of MPC solutions (ON/OFF unit, dualfuel, and VRF systems) on multiple SMCB sites. We describe the MPC deployment process and discuss the lessons learned. The site selection, eligibility, and retrofit availability (e.g., utility price structure, thermostat communications, etc.) are the main discussion points at the beginning of the project. Also, the modeling automation and the best practices for interacting with endusers and handling erroneous situations are presented for successful operations.

woo Ham, Sang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for robust quantum state preparation

A critical engineering challenge in quantum technology is the accurate control of quantum dynamics. Model-based methods for optimal control have been shown to be highly effective when theory and experiment closely match. Consequently, realizing high-fidelity quantum processes with model-based control requires careful device characterization. In quantum processors based on cold atoms, the Hamiltonian can be well-characterized. For superconducting qubits operating at milli-Kelvin temperatures, the Hamiltonian is not as well-characterized. Unaccounted for physics (i.e., mode discrepancy), coherent disturbances, and increased noise compromise traditional model-based control. This work introduces model predictive control (MPC) for quantum control applications. MPC is a closed-loop optimization framework that (i) inherits a natural degree of disturbance rejection by incorporating measurement feedback, (ii) utilizes finite-horizon model-based optimizations to control complex multi-input, multi-output dynamical systems under state and input constraints, and (iii) is flexible enough to develop synergistically alongside other modern control strategies. We show how MPC can be used to generate practical optimized control sequences in representative examples of quantum state preparation. Specifically, we demonstrate for a qubit, a weakly-anharmonic qubit, and a system undergoing crosstalk, that MPC can realize successful model-based control even when the model is inadequate. These examples showcase why MPC is an important addition to the quantum engineering control suite.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control for a Grid-interactive Efficient Thermal Storage-integrated Heat Pump System

Building heating and cooling systems can be used to overcome the mismatch between the intermittent supply of renewable power and the fluctuating demand for electricity. A novel underground thermal energy storage integrated with a dual-source heat pump has been proposed to mitigate the mismatch while meeting the thermal demand of buildings efficiently. Conventional thermostat control with heuristic rules cannot provide intelligent decisions to maximize the thermal efficiency and flexibility of the proposed system. Advanced control strategies like model predictive control (MPC) have provided a new paradigm for grid-interactive efficient building operation with the advancement of computation and sensing. This study developed an MPC for the proposed system to provide grid service for Demand Side Management and minimize the operating cost of building owners. A control-oriented dynamic model of the proposed system has been developed. Given an objective function and proper constraints, an optimization problem is formulated to determine the optimal control strategy of the system. Dynamic Programming is adopted to solve the optimization problem. A rule-based control (RBC) is also developed to achieve similar goals. Short-term simulations are conducted to compare the system performance resulting from the two controls. The simulation results indicate that the MPC performs more intelligently than the RBC in charging thermal energy storage and selecting heat pump sources by taking advantage of the predicted cooling demands of the building and the performance of the integrated system. As a result, the MPC could save energy and reduce operating costs compared with the RBC. A case study shows that, for a 3-day operation, the MPC saves 36.9% energy and reduces 38.5% operating cost compared with the RBC.

Shi, Liang↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Model Predictive Control to Improve Grid Resilience

The following article details a model predictive control (MPC) to improve grid resilience when faced with variable generation resources. This topic is of significant interest to utility power systems where distributed intermittent energy sources will increase significantly and be relied on for electric grid ancillary services. Previous work on MPCs has focused on narrowly targeted control applications such as improving electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure or reducing the cost of integrating Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) into the grid. In contrast, this article develops a comprehensive treatment of the construction of an MPC tailored to electric grids and then applies it integration of intermittent energy resources. To accomplish this, the following article includes a description of a reduced order model (ROM) of an electric power grid based on a circuit model, an optimization formulation that describes the MPC, a collocation method for solving linear time-dependent differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that result from the ROM, and an overall strategy for iteratively refining the behavior of the MPC. Next, the algorithm is validated using two separate numerical experiments. First, the algorithm is compared to an existing MPC code and the results are verified by a numerically precise simulation. It is shown that this algorithm produces a control comparable to existing algorithms and the behavior of the control carefully respects the bounds specified. Second, the MPC is applied to a small nine bus system that contains a mix of turbine-spinning-machine-based and intermittent generation in order to demonstrate the algorithm’s utility for resource planning and control of intermittent resources. This study demonstrates how the MPC can be tuned to change the behavior of the control, which can then assist with the integration of intermittent resources into the grid. The emphasis throughout the paper is to provide systematic treatment of the topic and produce a novel nonlinear control compatible design framework applicable to electric grids and the control of variable resources. This differs from the more targeted application-based focus in most presentations.

microgrid↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Optimal Performance of Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Here, this article presents a regret analysis for stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in linear systems with quadratic performance index and additive and multiplicative uncertainties. Under a finite support assumption, the problem can be cast as a finite-dimensional quadratic program, but the problem becomes quickly intractable as the problem size grows exponentially in the horizon length. SMPC aims to compute approximate solutions by solving a sequence of problems with truncated prediction horizons and committing the solution in a receding-horizon fashion. Although this approach is widely used in practice, its performance relative to the optimal solution is not well understood. This article reports for the first time a rigorous near-optimal performance guarantee of SMPC: under stabilizability and detectability conditions, the regret of SMPC is exponentially small in the prediction horizon length, allowing SMPC to achieve near-optimal performance at a substantially reduced computational expense.

93E20, 93B45↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental validation of model predictive control for solid oxide fuel cells

Here, this paper presents implementation of a model predictive controller (MPC) for an experimental solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system. The MPC controller is based on a gain-scheduled predictor with block-oriented structure that can capture important non-linear effects while still keeping the computational complexity low enough to meet real time control requirements. Experimental results show the MPC is able to regulate the SOFC cathode outlet temperature in the face of startup transients and input perturbations.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Model Predictive Control for Temperature Management of Heat Pipe Microreactor

A data-driven model predictive control (MPC) was developed to enable the self-regulating capability of heat pipe (HP) nuclear microreactors. The MPC can proactively respond to potential disturbances of HP microreactors using three approaches for system identifications: linear state-space model, feedforward neural network, and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory units. We present numerical results of data-driven MPCs to control the temperatures of selected HPs in a 37-HP test article. Our results show qualitatively that all data-driven MPCs produced similar control actions, while quantitatively, with artificial neural nets (especially feedforward neural nets), MPC can better follow drastic changes in setpoints with small errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations of the tokamak plasma boundary for model predictive control using SINDy *

Abstract Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations have been used to identify reduced models with the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) method and develop model-predictive control of the boundary plasma state using main ion gas puff actuation. A series of gas actuation sequences are input into SOLPS-ITER to produce a dynamic response in upstream and divertor plasma quantities. The SINDy method is applied to identify reduced linear and nonlinear models for the electron density at the outboard midplane n e , s e p O M P and the electron temperature at the outer divertor T e , s e p d i v . Note that T e , s e p d i v is not necessarily the peak value of T e along the divertor. The identified reduced models are interpretable by construction (i.e. not black box), and have the form of coupled ordinary differential equations. Despite significant noise in T e , s e p d i v , the reduced models can be used to predict the response over a range of actuation levels to a maximum deviation of 0.5% in n e , s e p O M P and 5%–10% in T e , s e p d i v for the cases considered. Model retraining using time history data triggered by a preset error threshold is also demonstrated. A model predictive control strategy for nonlinear models is developed and used to perform feedback control of a SOLPS-ITER simulation to produce a setpoint trajectory in n e , s e p O M P using the integrated plasma simulator framework. The developed techniques are general and can be applied to time-dependent data from other boundary simulations or experimental data. Ongoing work is extending the approach to model identification and control for divertor detachment, which will present transient nonlinear behavior from impurity seeding, including realistic latency and synthetic diagnostic signals derived from the full SOLPS-ITER output.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a model predictive controller enabling anticipatory control strategies for a heat-pipe system

To support the reliable and resilient operation of modular reactors and microreactors, anticipatory control strategies have been proposed for achieving faster-than-real-time predictions and decision-making capabilities in anticipation of potential anomalies, including setpoint changes and cyber incidents. Here this work presents how anticipatory control strategies can be implemented via model predictive control (MPC) of a single heat pipe’s temperature. Considering the uncertainty in developing and applying MPC, this work evaluates MPC performance given three different model forms: a linear response surface model, an artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive model with exogenous input (ARX). This work also evaluates the impacts of different input biases and variance on MPC performance in order to account for potential sensor reading variations due to cyber incidents. We observe that nonparametric models such as the ANN and ARX result in more fluctuated control actions compared to the MPC applied to the linear response surface model. However, when the cyber incidents are of a large magnitude, the linear response surface model produces smaller feasible regions than the nonparametric models under identical constraints.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transient Efficiency Flexibility and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants: Model-Predictive Control Library Development (Report)

This document pertains to the reporting requirements of DOE contract FE-0031767. The document covers the development of a model predictive control (MPC) library for implementing MPC for a general dynamic system. The library is implemented in a standardized manner in Matlab/Simulink, where core functions on model prediction, linearization and formulation and solution of a quadratic programming (QP) optimization problem is done in the core library - independent of the specific application. The user can provide the application-specific dynamic model in continuous and discrete time, to rapidly implement and test the MPC performance in a desktop simulation. The MPC optimization objective and constraints are also easily configured via an Excel file to allow iterative refinement as needed. Finally, the MPC library enables a rapid deployment to a target environment through auto C-code generation and containerization. The MPC library works seamlessly with the model based estimation (MBE) library to obtain the overall output feedback control solution. In this program, the reduced order model (ROM) of a coal-fired power plant (CFPP) is used to implement and test the MPC solution.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison of efficiency-aware model-predictive control approaches for wave energy devices

In this study, we compare four different formulations of model predictive control that attempt to maximise electrical power generated by a wave energy converter (WEC). Control laws include (1) pure maximisation of mechanical power, (2) maximisation of mechanical power with a control penalty factor, (3) maximisation of electrical power using power conversion efficiency, and (4) maximisation of electrical power using the full electro-mechanical model of a system. For this study, a wave-to-wire model is developed for a floating spherical buoy connected to a permanent magnet synchronous generator. The performance of the controllers, including the mechanical and electrical power outputs, is compared in irregular wave conditions for the unconstrained and force-constrained scenarios. The results demonstrate that the controller designed to maximise mechanical power is not suitable for practical applications and may lead to negative electrical power output due to the non-ideal power take-off efficiency. Moreover, the replacement of the power take-off dynamics by the efficiency coefficient does not guarantee the maximum electrical power production.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Model Predictive Control With Gaussian Wind Direction Preview for Wake Steering

This article addresses the problem of wake steering control for wind farms that explicitly consider the tradeoff between farm-level power generation and yaw duty cycle under variable and uncertain wind conditions. A novel stochastic model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented, which utilizes a stochastic model of the freestream wind field components in a receding horizon framework to compute optimal yaw set points that maximize the expected value of the farm power while constraining the yaw actuation. Different configurations of the algorithm are evaluated using a steady-state wind farm simulator. The proposed stochastic MPC algorithm can plan control actions over a future prediction horizon based on probabilistic estimates of the incoming wind magnitude and direction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control of Discrete-Continuous Energy Systems via Generalized Disjunctive Programming

Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) provides an alternative framework to model optimization problems with both discrete and continuous variables. The key idea behind GDP involves the use of logical disjunctions to represent discrete decisions in the continuous space, and logical propositions to denote algebraic constraints in the discrete space. Compared to traditional mixed-integer programming (MIP), the inherent logic structure in GDP yields tighter relaxations that are exploited by global branch and bound algorithms to improve solution quality. In this paper, we present a general GDP model for optimal control of hybrid systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous dynamics. Specifically, we use GDP to formulate a model predictive control (MPC) model for piecewise-affine systems with implicit switching logic. As an example, the GDP-based MPC approach is used as a supervisory control to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings with binary on/off, relay-based thermostats. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, and the improved solution quality compared to existing MIPbased control approaches.

Bhattacharya, Arnab↗