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At least 37 records · Page 2

2x2 Demonstrator High-Coverage Light Readout System in a Novel LArTPC

DUNE is a long-baseline Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) neutrino oscillation experiment. Its near detectors, located at Fermi National Laboratory, will constrain systematic errors on far detector measurements. The 2x2 Demonstrator, a novel proof of concept prototype for the ND LArTPC, has a modular TPC design that mitigates event pileup in a high-occupancy nearline beam environment, further aided by a native 3D pixelated charge readout and a 30% coverage, low profile light readout. This will be the first large-scale LArTPC to utilize pixels in place of wire planes

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Coupled Aerodynamic and Hydrodynamic Hybrid Simulation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

The development and innovation of floating offshore wind energy in the U.S. requires detailed high-fidelity observations and measurements of turbine and platform loading due to wind, waves, and currents. However, full-scale and quasi-full-scale experiments require significant financial and temporal investments for construction, experimental testing, and long-term field campaigns. To support the commercial advancement of the offshore wind energy industry, specialized wind tunnel and wave basin experimental facilities are critical to be able to test FOWT designs at small scale under controlled conditions prior to full-scale deployment. Oregon State University (OSU) is internationally known as a leader in water and energy research, development, and testing. The O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (HWRL) and the Wallace Energy Systems and Renewables Facility (WESRF) at OSU have extensive experience building, modeling, monitoring, controlling, and actuating scaled systems. Experiments on wave-structure interaction have been performed at the HWRL since its establishment in 1972. Studies have included the interaction of waves with coastal structures (breakwaters, seawalls, buildings, cylinders, bridges, fixed foundations of offshore wind turbines, etc.) and with floating structures (e.g., wave energy converters, maneuvering of vessels, etc.). Hinsdale is actively used by marine energy technology developers, both for private testing and OSU-collaborative research projects. However, despite the availability of several large-scale facilities for hydrodynamic testing (at OSU and elsewhere in the U.S.), existing experimental laboratories are generally limited in their ability to accurately generate combined wind and wave conditions. The simulation of both wind and waves in experimental testing is complicated due to a number of constraints, including: [i] incompatible similitude laws governing the wind and waves for scaled experiments, [ii] producing accurate wind over a large enough control volume via fans, and [iii] generating wind that reasonably represents the atmospheric boundary layer in existing wave basins/flumes. Hence, physical test data providing insight into the simultaneous wave- and wind-structure response of floating offshore wind components can be difficult to generate. Given the aforementioned challenges in classic hydrodynamic experiments, the motivation of this project is to establish a real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) approach that can apply aero- and hydro-dynamic loading by augmenting wave-only experimental facilities with virtual aerodynamic forces through numerical models representing the remaining dynamic forces. RTHS is a physical-numerical approach that partitions a prototype system into physical and numerical sub-assemblies that interact with each other through actuators and sensors in real time. In coupling physical and numerical models, the hybrid simulation approach applied herein is ideal for problems with: (1) structures subjected to different scaling laws, such as floating offshore wind turbines subjected to combined aero/hydro-dynamic loading, (2) structures that are too large or complex to be tested entirely in a laboratory setting, such as deep-water mooring applications, and (3) component testing, where the behavior of a portion of the assembly is uncertain but still interacts with other portions of the structure, such as testing the fatigue life of turbine blades. Few U.S. experimental facilities are able to test simultaneous aero- and hydro-dynamic loading and none can accurately produce aero/hydro-dynamic response on scaled FOWT models due to conflicting similitude laws between the wind (commonly Reynolds) and the waves (commonly Froude). To aid in accelerating the development of the U.S. floating offshore industry, there is a significant need to develop a flexible, modular framework that can expand the capacities of existing wave-only laboratories. The project goal is to demonstrate a hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation (hydro-RTHS) framework that couples numerical wind and physical waves acting on a FOWT, thus representing simultaneous aero/hydro-dynamic loading. The FOWT is partitioned into a full-scale numerical sub-assembly associated with the aerodynamics and a model-scale physical sub-assembly associated with the hydrodynamics. The numerical-physical partition associated with hydro-RTHS mitigates scaling constraints by supplying different scaling laws to the physical and numerical sub-assemblies. Herein, length, force, and time are scaled and exchanged between the sub-assemblies using Froude scaling to represent the open-channel flow in the physical sub-assembly. Other similitude laws could also be utilized depending on the problem definition. It is envisioned that the ability to model FOWTs under waves and wind, with mitigation of similitude distortions, would result in reduced development costs (currently, FOWT concept development is performed with full-size pro- totypes at enormous expense and risk) and increase the reliability of the FOWT industry (since extreme wave and wind conditions and contingency events can be tested safely in a controlled environment).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Solving the Pulsed-Power Driven Inertial Fusion Energy Standoff Problem (Abbreviated Final Report)

The standoff problem in pulsed-power driven IFE (Inertial Fusion Energy) refers to the problem of electrically connecting a fusion target with the driver in a way that preserves the driver/target interface in the presence of a large fusion energy release (100’s of megajoules to 1000 megajoules). High yield fusion drivers for stockpile stewardship applications have similar concerns, but without the complication of the high repetition rate needed for energy production. All proposed IFE or high yield systems have the challenge of protecting the reactor vessel and driver from the energy release, but pulsed power drivers have the additional challenge of establishing an electrical connection in a way that does not create excessive debris or require costly/massive structures that must be expendable. Fortunately, there are conceptual solutions in the form of very low mass transmission lines, usually in the form of wires or foils, since very little mass is needed to overcome the magnetic forces driving the transmission lines apart or provide a low resistance pathway given the short pulse duration of the driver. Several important aspects of the standoff problem were analyzed in the course of this LDRD project. Conceptual means of introducing the low mass transmission lines into the reactor chamber were proposed, including analysis of methods to retain the power flow gap between the electrodes in the presence of the chamber environment. The energy losses due to ohmic dissipation and magnetic acceleration of the low mass transmission lines were evaluated for candidate driver pulses and different transmission line masses, and the fluence of x-ray and neutron energy on the persistent power flow structures that must survive the pulse of energy were evaluated. Finally, means of rapidly pumping down the chamber were explored as a way to return the system to low pressure following the multi-atmosphere post-pulse pressure rise. The overall conclusion from the analysis is that, while the reactor environment creates stressful conditions for a low mass transmission line standoff system, there are concepts expending 10 kg or less of electrode mass each pulse with the potential to mitigate the stresses and successfully drive fusion targets. Whether such a system could lead to a practical and economical fusion reactor would require extensive research and development beyond the scope of the feasibility study.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of a liquid-helium free cryogenic sample holder with mK temperature control for autonomous electron microscopy

The automated and autonomous cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (Cryo-EM) demands a sample holder capable of maintaining temperatures below 10 K with precise control, long holding times, and minimal helium use. Rising to this challenge, we initiated an ambitious project to develop a novel closed-cycle cryocooler-based cryogenic sample holder that operates without the use of liquid helium and the consumption of gaseous helium. Here, this article presents the design, construction, and experimental testing of the initial prototype, which achieves an ultimate temperature of 5.6 K with exceptional stability close to 1mK, while providing a wide temperature control range from 295 K to 5.6 K, marking a clear advancement in cryo-EM holder development. While the prototype was not designed for atomic resolution imaging and thus lacks a sturdy support system to mitigate mechanical vibrations from the cryocooler's pulsed tube, this innovative approach successfully demonstrates proof of concept. It offers unprecedented capabilities for state-of-the-art cryogenic microscopy and microanalysis in materials and biological sciences.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

1 kV 150 A Bidirectional Isolated DC/DC Converter With Full Range ZVS For Charger Application

This paper focusses on the development of a bidirectional DC/DC converter based on dual active bridge (DAB) converter for 1 kV class fast charger applications. A novel modulation technique is proposed to achieve zero voltage switching across the entire operating range of a vehicle battery system. The topology includes a tap changer to support multiple class of vehicles. The full range ZVS operation will allow high efficiency operation even at light load, reduced dv/dt to improve transformer insulation lifetime and mitigate EMI impact. A 1 kV class, 150 A prototype was developed to validate the proposed concepts.

Kandula, Prasad↗

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Antimicrobial Peptides Can Facilitate Whole Blood Safety from Bacteria: A Proof of Concept

With continuous improvements to blood donor deferrals and the availability of sensitive tests for donation screening for infectious agents, bacterial contamination of whole blood (WB) and blood components stored for transfusion is a rare event. Nonetheless, it still occurs and remains a transfusion-associated risk in terms of septic transfusion reactions (STRs) and transfusion-transmitted bacterial infections with morbidity and mortality outcomes. One of the risk mitigation strategies for bacterial contamination is to implement treatment with currently available proactive pathogen reduction technologies (PRTs) for these transfusion products. Here, as a proof of concept, we tested two recently developed unique cationic antimicrobial peptides (AMPs; D-CONGA and D-CONGA-Q7) for WB safety from bacterial contamination. In this study, WB was inoculated with Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus epidermidis and treated with the two peptides to evaluate their bactericidal efficacy. The results demonstrated that D-CONGA and D-CONGA-Q7 exhibit potent inhibitory activity against the bacteria with a minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) range of 4–8 and 1–8 μM, respectively, depending on the bacterial species tested. Time-kill kinetics further confirmed that the peptides exhibit bactericidal efficacy at 8 μM by achieving a 5-log 10 reduction (99.999%) of the bacterial load in WB with a time-dependent killing profile. Furthermore, even at 20 μM, the AMPs did not negatively impact hemolysis or hemostatic properties. We have further demonstrated using a cationic exchange resin that the cationic AMPs can be separated and removed from WB after the peptide treatments. During 35-day WB storage at 2–8 °C, 4 μM D-CONGA-Q7 one-time treatment prevented S. epidermidis growth and preserved WB quality and integrity. Overall, the results described here provide the first proof of concept that certain AMPs, such as D-CONGA and D-CONGA-Q7, can facilitate WB safety from bacteria during storage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

On the Application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE)

The 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy has recommended a transition to secure-by-design methodologies in critical infrastructure. This paper presents the adoption of the National Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Strategy as initiated by the U.S. DOE’s CESER office, advocating for the integration of cybersecurity at the earliest stages of system design. The strategy targets design engineers responsible for energy infrastructure to embed CIE principles within the engineering lifecycle, thus enhancing cyber resilience. This paper discusses the expansion of secure-by-design concepts to cyber-physical systems, moving beyond traditional IT security to include engineering considerations that can mitigate cyber risks through design choices. The paper introduces Digital Risk Management, balancing traditional cybersecurity with CIE to reduce both likelihood and impact of cyber threats. A set of CIE starter questions derived from 12 core principles is detailed, aiding engineers to consider cybersecurity in their designs and highlights the importance of CIE in anticipating and reducing the impacts of cyber attacks, suggesting that such integration is essential for national security and infrastructure resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improvement and Verification of Online Cross Section Generation Capability of Griffin for TRISO-fueled Reactors

Griffin, a MOOSE-based reactor multiphysics code jointly developed by Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory under the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s NEAMS program, has pursued the development of an online multigroup cross section generation capability for a few years to enable high-fidelity, problem-dependent neutronics analyses of advanced thermal reactors. Recent advancements in Griffin’s online multigroup cross section generation capability have significantly improved the accuracy, robustness, and efficiency of self-shielding calculations for both prismatic and pebble-bed TRISO-fueled reactor applications. Key developments include a unified fuel self-shielding method applicable to both TRISO and annular compact/spherical shell fuel zone geometries; an advanced Dancoff Category-based Equivalence Theory using a bell function for non-fuel resonance treatment, achieving more than an order-of-magnitude speedup compared to the Tone method; an on-the-fly multigroup equivalence approach to mitigate group condensation errors; and a streaming correction method for pebble-bed homogenization. A proof-of-concept demonstration of on-the-fly group condensation with consistent P0 transport correction was also achieved. The method reproduced direct fine-group solutions with excellent accuracy (eigenvalue errors within 10 pcm and pin-power differences within 0.5%), but due to performance limitations of the current fixed-source solver, improvements to solver efficiency will be addressed in future work. Verification tests were performed on graphite-moderated TRISO-fueled two-dimensional core benchmark problems representing gas-cooled microreactors, heat pipe-cooled microreactors, gas-cooled pebble-bed reactors, and fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactors. Across all cases, Griffin showed excellent agreement with Serpent2 continuous energy Monte Carlo solutions: eigenvalue errors within 200 pcm, pin-power root-mean-square errors within 2%, and control rod and drum worth errors less than 2%. It should be noted that, for the benchmark problem, cross section generation contributed less than 3% of the total simulation times. These results demonstrate that Griffin’s online cross section generation capability delivers accurate and efficient reactor physics solutions across a wide spectrum of TRISO-fueled advanced reactor designs. With further improvements to the fine-group fixed-source solver and planned extensions to depletion, transients, and coupled neutron–gamma transport, Griffin will be well-positioned to become a powerful and comprehensive tool for advanced reactor analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluating Variable-Impedance Magnetically-Insulated Transmission Lines as a Risk-Mitigation Measure for Next-Generation Pulsed Power

This project has produced the first detailed characterizations of power flow resulting from applying the “variable-impedance MITL” concept to real-life systems in Sandia’s pulsed power program (Z and next-generation pulsed power (NGPP)). We present simulation results and analyses for constant-impedance versions of both Z and NGPP and survey the operational viability of several variable-impedance re-designs in the parameter space of linear tapers. Circuit modeling (SCREAMER/Bertha) was used to pinpoint promising candidate designs, and EM-PIC (Empire) simulations were used to evaluate these candidates more rigorously. This approach was particularly successful in the Z regime which resulted in the identification of several viable variable-impedance MITL designs for each level. The approach was more challenged in the operating space NGPP occupies, producing data points that speak to a more restrictive design space due to anode plasma turn-on. In the end, we were able to converge on one viable variable-impedance design for the highest inductance line (level “F”) and one for the highest current line (level “A”). Altogether, the body of simulation evidence presented in this report suggest there does exist flexibility in operating space for magnetically-insulated transmission lines (MITLs) having variable geometric impedance to be a potential enabling technology for safely increasing current delivery (and potentially lowering stack voltage) in pulsed-power drivers by manipulating electron losses; however, operating points for a particular design must be carefully screened. Circuit and EM-PIC modeling provided consistent verdicts in safe operating regimes for operational viability, but additional physics such as anode plasma turn-on which is included in Empire but not in SCREAMER/Bertha was found to be a critical factor affecting power flow that lead to different assessments between the codes. It is not always the case that the occurrence of anode plasma caused a design to fail (some designs turned on anode plasma yet still delivered load currents meeting design targets); the details matter such as how early in the pulse anode surfaces break down (and how large a region). However, in every case that it did fail it was found that the feedback from anode plasma was the cause (i.e., turning off the anode plasma model in Empire restored agreement with the circuit model prediction). As circuit simulations represent an efficient and practical means of surveying design space compared to more computationally-expensive approaches such as EM-PIC, it could be prudent to invest in the research and development of models to include the effects of anode plasma such as ion emission in circuit codes. The variable-impedance MITL design is a new concept that enables controlled manipulation of the initial electron losses in the outer MITL and can be tested on Z today. We encourage follow-on work to explore further optimization (including alternative variable-impedance profiles, e.g., having constant dZ/dR), and to confirm the major findings presented in this report by fielding test hardware on actual Z shots.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reduction of baseplate distortion during directed energy deposition using compliant features

Distortion in additive manufacturing (AM) remains a barrier to its adoption in precision industries. Baseplate warpage is one such issue which compromises the feasibility of post-process precision machining. The restriction to thermal contraction of the deposited part, imposed by the baseplate, generates bending moments, that in turn causes warpage. A novel distortion mitigation strategy using baseplates with integrated compliant features, which enables thermal contraction of the build is presented. Six unique design concepts are evaluated, including a solid reference, using two deposition geometries. A laser, hot-wire, directed energy deposition (DED) process is used to deposit a symmetric cylindrical part (C-part) and a T-shaped asymmetric part (T-part). Flatness deviation of baseplates is measured using structured light 3D scanning. Measurements reveal a reduction in net flatness deviation of 58.8% for the C-part and 40.9% for the T-part, compared to the solid reference. While most designs yielded reductions exceeding 30% and 20% for the C- and T-parts, respectively, one configuration resulted in increased deviation. Finite element (FE) simulations are performed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms affecting distortion of compliant baseplates during DED. Despite variations between predictions and measurements, agreement in the general trend is observed. It also revealed that initial flatness errors in baseplates significantly affect its deviation during deposition. Predictions indicate that compliant features significantly affect the thermal distribution as well as the evolution of flatness deviation in the baseplate during deposition. Notably, one design exhibited a reduction in distortion during cooling, following its initial increase during deposition. FE predictions show a maximum reduction of 60.9% and 38.8% in net flatness deviation for the C- and T-parts, respectively. The performance of compliant baseplates is found to be governed by both its the thermal and mechanical characteristics, which are crucial factors to be considered during design.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗

Variational quantum and neural quantum states algorithms for the linear complementarity problem

Variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) are promising hybrid quantum-classical methods designed to leverage the computational advantages of quantum computing while mitigating the limitations of current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware. Although VQAs have been demonstrated as proofs of concept, their practical utility in solving real-world problems—and whether quantum-inspired classical algorithms can match their performance—remains an open question. We present a novel application of the variational quantum linear solver (VQLS) and its classical neural quantum states-based counterpart, the variational neural linear solver (VNLS), as key components within a minimum map Newton solver for a complementarity-based rigid-body contact model. We demonstrate using the VNLS that our solver accurately simulates the dynamics of rigid spherical bodies during collision events. These results suggest that quantum and quantum-inspired linear algebra algorithms can serve as viable alternatives to standard linear algebra solvers for modelling certain physical systems.

neural quantum states↗

Metal-to-Ceramic Joining Methods to Support Development of Advanced Ceramic-Based CSP Components

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Missouri University of Science and Technology (MS&T), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Colorado School of Mines (CSM) collaborated to design, develop, and test a material concept at bench scale which will be used to achieve a ceramic-to-metal (C2M) joint between a selected metal HTF loop material and a selected ceramic material used by the Gen3 CSP technology pathway. The final joint assembly will need to possess sufficient mechanical properties to withstand static high-temperature (650 degrees-700 degrees C) and high-pressure (20 MPa) and thermal cycling (between 650 degrees C and 100 degrees C) conditions. The material concept consists of three key components: (1) a ceramic matrix composite (CMC) that serves as a compliant transition material aiming to mitigate the stresses due to the mismatch of coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) from a direct ceramic-to-metal joint, (2) a metal-end joint utilizing a multi-principal element alloy (MPEA) with changing percentage of particle loading to bond the candidate metal to the CMC, and (3) a ceramic-end joint utilizing a glass ceramic to bond the candidate ceramic to the CMC.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Status of 22 GeV CEBAF Upgrade Using FFA Arcs

Jefferson Lab is exploring an upgrade to extend CEBAF’s energy to ~22 GeV within the existing tunnel by incorporating Fixed-Field Alternating-Gradient (FFA) arcs. In this scheme, the two lowest-energy electromagnetic arcs are removed, the remaining arcs are reassigned to lower energies, and a new pair of high-energy FFA arcs enables six additional recirculations using the existing SRF linacs. The non-scaling FFA lattice employs Halbach-derived permanent magnets with provisions for dipole, quadrupole, and higher-order components, offering large momentum acceptance and reduced operating cost. Implementing this concept requires updated linac optics, modifications to the remaining arcs, and a redesigned electromagnetic switchyard. Ongoing beam-dynamics studies address synchrotron-radiation–induced energy loss and emittance growth, along with strategies for their mitigation.

Ogur, S. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Fa↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗