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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Solar Microflare with BATSE

Our work on detecting and cataloging solar microflares using an automated method is illustrated in the accompanying figure. The figure represents the solar microflare distribution during the period of April 1991 to November 1992, the height of solar activity after the launch of The Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). It also shows the distribution extending below the distribution obtained at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) by manual means. We have implemented significant refinements in the search algorithm. The algorithm in its simplest form searches for transient events and based upon the distribution of the signal among the different Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detectors, we can assign it to be of solar origin if the signal distribution conforms to what one expects from a burst or transient from that direction. One of the major problems in the earlier effort was to search for microflares and large flares simultaneously. The requirement for a dynamic range of almost 10 (exp 4) resulted in ambiguous identifications at the low side of the distribution. We have since restricted the search to events with peak count rates under 2000 s (exp -1). Larger events are easily identified in the manual search, so we have chosen not to duplicate that work. The second problem was that missing counts existed below channel 0 in the Burst and Transient Source Experiment Large Area Detector data (BATSE LAD). These have been recovered and are now included in the search process. This provides data below 20 keV, and as we get closer to the thermal part of the spectrum, it provides greater sensitivity. The third problem was that too many BATSE detector were used in the search. Detectors with pointing directions far from the Sun, although detecting the event, had poorly known responses. Detectors greater than approximately 60 deg. off the Sun are no longer included in the search process. By reducing the systematic errors with the large off-axis detectors we can conduct more rigorous statistical tests of a candidate event to ascertain whether it originated from the solar direction. We have reprocessed the period in the early mission that covers solar maximum and constructed the microflare distribution shown in the figure. The results of the automated search start to deviate from the manual search results below about 1000 s (exp -1). Not only do we now have this distribution but we have a database of solar microflares that was used to construct the distribution. This database contains the signal at higher energy channels as well as that in channel zero (and below). From this one can, using software at GSFC, construct a photon spectrum for some of the larger microflares. It can also be used in other solar studies, especially those that correlate the X-ray flux with emission at other wavelengths. With some additional effort we hope to integrate this database into the corresponding one residing at the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC. The entire CGRO mission's data can now be reprocessed to obtain the microflare distribution at all phases of the solar cycle. This work is in progress. The results of this work will be presented in forthcoming scientific workshops and conferences.

Ryan, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis for Extended Independent Variable Sets

A new method was developed that makes it possible to use an extended set of independent calibration variables for an iterative analysis of wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration data. The new method permits the application of the iterative analysis method whenever the total number of balance loads and other independent calibration variables is greater than the total number of measured strain gage outputs. Iteration equations used by the iterative analysis method have the limitation that the number of independent and dependent variables must match. The new method circumvents this limitation. It simply adds a missing dependent variable to the original data set by using an additional independent variable also as an additional dependent variable. Then, the desired solution of the regression analysis problem can be obtained that fits each gage output as a function of both the original and additional independent calibration variables. The final regression coefficients can be converted to data reduction matrix coefficients because the missing dependent variables were added to the data set without changing the regression analysis result for each gage output. Therefore, the new method still supports the application of the two load iteration equation choices that the iterative method traditionally uses for the prediction of balance loads during a wind tunnel test. An example is discussed in the paper that illustrates the application of the new method to a realistic simulation of temperature dependent calibration data set of a six component balance.

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flow field Reconstruction for Inhomogeneous Turbulence using Data and Physics Driven Models

A methodology combining Large Eddy Simulation (LES) trained data and a physics driven wave packet model to obtain a reduced order reconstruction for broadband, three-dimensional, temporally stationary but spatially inhomogeneous, incompressible turbulence. Wake turbulence generated by an axisymmetric dragging disk with a turbulent co-flow serves as the benchmark test case. We begin by studying the proper-orthogonal decomposition of the turbulent fluctuations taken from a high-resolution LES to first identify whether the fields demonstrate a low-rank character. It is argued that the presence of the turbulent co-flow results in a largely broadband character lacking any tonal properties. This is especially true for Strouhal numbers greater than 1 and only a small fraction of energy is contained in the leading order Kelvin-Helmholtz modes. As such reconstructions and reduced order modeling purely relying on data from LES does not appear to be a lucrative solution - contrary to problems with strongly tonal character. To supplement the missing energy from a low order truncated mode expansion, we utilize a physics based super-resolution (enrichment) algorithm that relies on spatio-temporally localized Gabor wave packets whose time evolution is described using a set of ordinary differential equations. The reconstructed flow has single- and two-point correlations that are consistent with the reference high resolution simulation data.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Neutrino masses, neutrino oscillations, and cosmological implications

Theoretical concepts and motivations for considering neutrinos having finite masses are discussed and the experimental situation on searches for neutrino masses and oscillations is summarized. The solar neutrino problem, reactor, deep mine and accelerator data, tri decay experiments and double beta-decay data are considered and cosmological implications and astrophysical data relating to neutrino masses are reviewed. The neutrino oscillation solution to the solar neutrino problem, the missing mass problem in galaxy halos and galaxy cluster galaxy formation and clustering, and radiative neutrino decay and the cosmic ultraviolet background radiation are examined.

Stecker, F. W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Data Mining SIAM Presentation

This viewgraph document describes the data mining system developed at NASA Ames. Many NASA programs have large numbers (and types) of problem reports.These free text reports are written by a number of different people, thus the emphasis and wording vary considerably With so much data to sift through, analysts (subject experts) need help identifying any possible safety issues or concerns and help them confirm that they haven't missed important problems. Unsupervised clustering is the initial step to accomplish this; We think we can go much farther, specifically, identify possible recurring anomalies. Recurring anomalies may be indicators of larger systemic problems. The requirement to identify these anomalies has led to the development of Recurring Anomaly Discovery System (ReADS).

Srivastava, Ashok↗
NASA NTRS2010

Lightning Reporting at 45th Weather Squadron: Recent Improvements

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) provides daily lightning reports to space launch customers at CCAFS/KSC. These reports are provided to assess the need to inspect the electronics of satellite payloads, space launch vehicles, and ground support equipment for induced current damage from nearby lightning strokes. The 45 WS has made several improvements to the lightning reports during 2008-2009. The 4DLSS, implemented in April 2008, provides all lightning strokes as opposed to just one stroke per flash as done by the previous system. The 45 WS discovered that the peak current was being truncated to the nearest kilo amp in the database used to generate the daily lightning reports, which led to an up to 4% underestimate in the peak current for average lightning. This error was corrected and led to elimination of this underestimate. The 45 WS and their mission partners developed lightning location error ellipses for 99% and 95% location accuracies tailored to each individual stroke and began providing them in the spring of 2009. The new procedure provides the distance from the point of interest to the best location of the stroke (the center of the error ellipse) and the distance to the closest edge of the ellipse. This information is now included in the lightning reports, along with the peak current of the stroke. The initial method of calculating the error ellipses could only be used during normal duty hours, i.e. not during nights, weekends, or holidays. This method was improved later to provide lightning reports in near real-time, 24/7. The calculation of the distance to the closest point on the ellipse was also significantly improved later. Other improvements were also implemented. A new method to calculate the probability of any nearby lightning stroke. being within any radius of any point of interest was developed and is being implemented. This may supersede the use of location error ellipses. The 45 WS is pursuing adding data from nine NLDN sensors into 4DLSS in real-time. This will overcome the problem of 4DLSS missing some of the strong local strokes. This will also improve the location accuracy, reduce the size and eccentricity of the location error ellipses, and reduce the probability of nearby strokes being inside the areas of interest when few of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. This will not reduce 4DLSS performance when most of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. Finally, several possible future improvements were discussed, especially for improving the peak current estimate and the error estimate for peak current, and upgrading the 4DLSS. Some possible approaches for both of these goals were discussed.

Finn, Frank C.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Decision-problem state analysis methodology

A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

Dieterly, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Wintertime nitric acid chemistry - Implications from three-dimensional model calculations

A three-dimensional simulation of the evolution of HNO3 has been run for the winter of 1979. Winds and temperatures are taken from a stratospheric data assimilation analysis, and the chemistry is based on Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations. The model is compared to LIMS observations to investigate the problem of 'missing' nitric acid chemistry in the winter hemisphere. Both the model and observations support the contention that a nitric acid source is needed outside of the polar vortex and north of the subtropics. Observations suggest that HNO3 is not dynamically controlled in middle latitudes. The model shows that given the time scales of conventional chemistry, dynamical control is expected. Therefore, an error exists in the conventional chemistry or additional processes are needed to bring the model and data into agreement. Since the polar vortex is dynamically isolated from the middle latitudes, and since the highest HNO3 values are observed in October and November, a source associated solely with polar stratospheric clouds cannot explain the deficiencies in the chemistry. The role of heterogeneous processes on background aerosols is reviewed in light of these results.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Correction of Excessive Precipitation Over Steep and High Mountains in a General Circulation Model

Excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) is a well-known problem in GCMs and meso-scale models. This problem impairs simulation and data assimilation products. Among the possible causes investigated in this study, we found that the most important one, by far, is a missing upward transport of heat out of the boundary layer due to the vertical circulations forced by the daytime upslope winds, which are forced by the heated boundary layer on subgrid-scale slopes. These upslope winds are associated with large subgrid-scale topographic variation, which is found over steep and high mountains. Without such subgridscale heat ventilation, the resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer generated by surface sensible heat flux along the mountain slopes is excessive. Such an excessive resolvablescale upslope flow combined with the high moisture content in the boundary layer results in excessive moisture transport toward mountaintops, which in turn gives rise to EPSM. Other possible causes of EPSM that we have investigated include 1) a poorly-designed horizontal moisture flux in the terrain-following coordinates, 2) the condition for cumulus convection being too easily satisfied at mountaintops, 3) the presence of conditional instability of the computational kind, and 4) the absence of blocked flow drag. These are all minor or inconsequential. We have parameterized the ventilation effects of the subgrid-scale heated-slope-induced vertical circulation (SHVC) by removing heat from the boundary layer and depositing it in layers higher up when the topographic variance exceeds a critical value. Test results using NASA/Goddard's GEOS-S GCM have shown that this largely solved the EPSM problem.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Capillary Corner Flows With Partial and Nonwetting Fluids

Capillary flow in containers or conduits with interior corners are common place in nature and industry. The majority of investigations addressing such flows solve the problem numerically in terms of a friction factor for flows along corners with contact angles below the Concus-Finn critical wetting condition for the particular conduit geometry of interest. This research effort provides missing numerical data for the flow resistance function F(sub i) for partially and nonwetting systems above the Concus-Finn condition. In such cases the fluid spontaneously de-wets the interior corner and often retracts into corner-bound drops. A banded numerical coefficient is desirable for further analysis and is achieved by careful selection of length scales x(sub s) and y(sub s) to nondimensionalize the problem. The optimal scaling is found to be identical to the wetting scaling, namely x(sub s) = H and y(sub s) = Htan (alpha), where H is the height from the corner to the free surface and a is the corner half-angle. Employing this scaling produces a relatively weakly varying flow resistance F(sub i) and for subsequent analyses is treated as a constant. Example solutions to steady and transient flow problems are provided that illustrate applications of this result.

Bolleddula, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Correction of Excessive Precipitation over Steep Mountains in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

Excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) is a well-known problem in GCMs and regional climate models even at a resolution as high as 19km. The affected regions include the Andes, the Himalayas, Sierra Madre, New Guinea and others. This problem also shows up in some data assimilation products. Among the possible causes investigated in this study, we found that the most important one, by far, is a missing upward transport of heat out of the boundary layer due to the vertical circulations forced by the daytime subgrid-scale upslope winds, which in turn is forced by heated boundary layer on the slopes. These upslope winds are associated with large subgrid-scale topographic variance, which is found over steep mountains. Without such subgrid-scale heat ventilation, the resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer generated by surface sensible heat flux along the mountain slopes is excessive. Such an excessive resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer combined with the high moisture content in the boundary layer results in excessive moisture transport toward mountaintops, which in turn gives rise to excessive precipitation over the affected regions. We have parameterized the effects of subgrid-scale heated-slope-induced vertical circulation (SHVC) by removing heat from the boundary layer and depositing it in the layers higher up when topographic variance exceeds a critical value. Test results using NASA/Goddard's GEOS-5 GCM have shown that the EPSM problem is largely solved.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the impact of the FGGE on tropical forecasts

It has become evident from operational experience that a good forecast requires, in general, a good analysis. This is as true in the tropics as it is in the extratropics. One can find many examples of bad data being accepted by the analysis scheme and significantly degrading the subsequent forecast. Equally, a lack of data may result in a forecast completely missing the early development of, for example, a midlatitude cyclone or tropical depression. Also, single level data may be misinterpreted by an analysis scheme. These problems are compounded in the tropics by our relative ignorance of the dynamics, the necessarily crude descriptions of many important physical processes, and fundamental in analysis. The impact of the FGGE on tropical analysis/forecasting is reviewed.

Heckley, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

System monitoring and diagnosis with qualitative models

A substantial foundation of tools for model-based reasoning with incomplete knowledge was developed: QSIM (a qualitative simulation program) and its extensions for qualitative simulation; Q2, Q3 and their successors for quantitative reasoning on a qualitative framework; and the CC (component-connection) and QPC (Qualitative Process Theory) model compilers for building QSIM QDE (qualitative differential equation) models starting from different ontological assumptions. Other model-compilers for QDE's, e.g., using bond graphs or compartmental models, have been developed elsewhere. These model-building tools will support automatic construction of qualitative models from physical specifications, and further research into selection of appropriate modeling viewpoints. For monitoring and diagnosis, plausible hypotheses are unified against observations to strengthen or refute the predicted behaviors. In MIMIC (Model Integration via Mesh Interpolation Coefficients), multiple hypothesized models of the system are tracked in parallel in order to reduce the 'missing model' problem. Each model begins as a qualitative model, and is unified with a priori quantitative knowledge and with the stream of incoming observational data. When the model/data unification yields a contradiction, the model is refuted. When there is no contradiction, the predictions of the model are progressively strengthened, for use in procedure planning and differential diagnosis. Only under a qualitative level of description can a finite set of models guarantee the complete coverage necessary for this performance. The results of this research are presented in several publications. Abstracts of these published papers are presented along with abtracts of papers representing work that was synergistic with the NASA grant but funded otherwise. These 28 papers include but are not limited to: 'Combined qualitative and numerical simulation with Q3'; 'Comparative analysis and qualitative integral representations'; 'Model-based monitoring of dynamic systems'; 'Numerical behavior envelopes for qualitative models'; 'Higher-order derivative constraints in qualitative simulation'; and 'Non-intersection of trajectories in qualitative phase space: a global constraint for qualitative simulation.'

Kuipers, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2016

Enhancing the Cassini Mission Through FP Applications After Launch

Although rigorous pre-emptive measures are taken to preclude failures and anomalous conditions from occurring in JPL spacecraft missions prior to launch, unforeseeable problems can still surface after liftoff. In the case of the Cassini/Huygens Mission-to-Saturn spacecraft, several problems were observed post-launch: 1) immediately after takeoff, the collected engineering/science data stored on the Solid State Recorders (SSR) contained a significantly higher number of corrupted bits than was expected (considerably over spec) due to human error in the memory mapping of these devices, 2) numerous Solid State Power Switches (SSPS) sporadically tripped off throughout the mission due to cosmic ray bombardment from the unique space environment, and 3) false assumptions in the pressure regulator design in combination with missing heritage test data led to inaccurate design conclusions, causing the issuance of two waivers for the regulator to close properly (a potentially mission catastrophic single-point failure which occurred 24 days after launch) - amongst other problems. For Cassini, some of these anomalies led to arduous work-arounds or required continuous monitoring of telemetry variables by the ground-based Spacecraft Operations Flight Support (SOFS) team in order to detect and fix fault occurrences as they happened. Fortunately, sufficient funding and schedule margin allowed several Fault Protection (FP) solutions to be implemented into post-launch Flight Software (FSW) uploads to help resolve these issues autonomously, reducing SOFS ground support efforts while improving anomaly recovery time in order to preserve maximum science capture. This paper details the FP applications used to resolve the above issues as well as to optimize solutions for several other problems experienced by the Cassini spacecraft during its fight, in order to enhance the spacecraft's overall mission success throughout the 18 years of its 20 year expedition to and within the Saturnian system.

fault protection↗
NASA NTRS2022

Bayesian Rules of Thumb: Robust Uncertainty Quantification in Early Project Cost Estimation

Systems engineers often make use of cost Rules ofThumb in order to estimate cost during early phases of projectformulation. These Rules of Thumb typically take the form ofa sequence of percentages over which a total cost is allocatedacross NASA WBS elements. Rules of Thumb can then be usedto extrapolate cost from one or more known WBS elements tothe remaining unknown WBS elements, assisting early projectformulation architecture studies (such as those in JPL’s Team Xand A Team).A number of issues can arise when generating and using costRules of Thumb. For example, many records of project costsconsist of incomplete data. Typical methods of dealing withincomplete cost allocation data include (a) ignoring missionswith incomplete data, or (b) taking averages of the non-zero percentagesacross missions, but both of these methods can result inbiased estimates if the existence of incomplete data correlateswith total mission cost or any particular WBS element. Anothercommon example is cost reported in one or more incorrect WBSelements. This is especially prevalent in smaller missions whereit is more common for engineers to perform tasks that fall underthe purview of multiple WBS elements.Furthermore, a Rule of Thumb estimate is typically reported asa point estimate; there is no reported uncertainty around thepercentages used to generate an allocation. Even in the rarecase in which confidence intervals around mean percentages areprovided, there may be positive or negative correlations betweenWBS elements which can skew estimates.Here we attempt to address these problems by formulatingprobabilistic Rules of Thumb in which a distribution of allocationschemes, rather than a single allocation scheme, is generated.We use a bootstrap imputation method to simultaneouslyaccount for uncertainty in the missing data while using allavailable information contained in the dataset. The imputeddatasets are then input into a multivariate Bayesian modelwhich accounts for correlations between WBS elements andproperly accounts for uncertainty in the final Rule of Thumbpercentages and predictions. We describe the mathematicalmodel and provides snippets of R code utilizing the brms(Bayesian Regression Models using Stan) package. To illustratethis model, we generate a Bayesian Level 2 WBS Cost Rule ofThumb for MIDEX (Medium-Class Explorers) missions withdata extracted from NASA’s CADRe. We then compare thismethod’s performance with the classical Rule of Thumb method.

Hooke, Melissa A↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS RSS-14 Level-1a GOES-8 Visible, IR and Water Vapor Images

The BOREAS RSS-14 team collected and processed several GOES-7 and GOES-8 image data sets that covered the BOREAS study region. The level-1a GOES-8 images were created by BORIS personnel from the level-1 images delivered by FSU personnel. The data cover 14-Jul-1995 to 21-Sep-1995 and 12-Feb-1996 to 03-Oct-1996. The data start out as three bands with 8-bit pixel values and end up as five bands with 10-bit pixel values. No major problems with the data have been identified. The differences between the level-1 and level-1a GOES-8 data are the formatting and packaging of the data. The images missing from the temporal series of level-1 GOES-8 images were zero-filled by BORIS staff to create files consistent in size and format. In addition, BORIS staff packaged all the images of a given type from a given day into a single file, removed the header information from the individual level-1 files, and placed it into a single descriptive ASCII header file. The data are contained in binary image format files. Due to the large size of the images, the level-1a GOES-8 data are not contained on the BOREAS CD-ROM set. An inventory listing file is supplied on the CD-ROM to inform users of what data were collected. The level-1a GOES-8 image data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). See sections 15 and 16 for more information. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Hall, Forrest G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

NLSI Focus Group on Missing ALSEP Data Recovery: Progress and Plans

On the six Apollo landed missions, the Astronauts deployed the Apollo Lunar Surface Experiments Package (ALSEP) science stations which measured active and passive seismic events, magnetic fields, charged particles, solar wind, heat flow, the diffuse atmosphere, meteorites and their ejecta, lunar dust, etc. Today's scientists are able to extract new information and make new discoveries from the old ALSEP data utilizing recent advances in computer capabilities and new analysis techniques. However, current-day investigators are encountering problems trying to use the ALSEP data. In 2007 archivists from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) estimated only about 50 percent of the processed ALSEP lunar surface data-of-interest to current lunar science investigators were in the NSSDC archives. The current-day lunar science investigators found most of the ALSEP data, then in the NSSDC archives. were extremely difficult to use. The data were in forms often not well described in the published reports and rerecording anomalies existed in the data which could only be resolved by tape experts. To resolve this problem, the DPS Lunar Data Node was established in 2008 at NSSDC and is in the process of successfully making the existing archived ALSEP data available to current-day investigators in easily useable forms. In July of 2010 the NASA Lunar Science Institute (NLSI) at Ames Research Center established the Recovery of Missing ALSEP Data Focus Group in recognition of the importance of the current activities to find the raw and processed ALSEP data missing from the NSSDC archives.

Lewis, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

MG Isotopic Measurement of FIB-Isolated Presolar Silicate Grains

The majority of presolar oxide and silicate grains are ascribed to origins in low-mass red giant and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars based on their O isotopic ratios. However, a minor population of these grains (< 10%) has O isotopic ratios incompatible with these sources. Two principle alternative sources are higher-than-solar metallicity (Z) stars or, more likely, supernovae (SN) [1-3]. These rare (Group 4) grains [3] are characterized by enrichments in O-18, and typically also enrichments in O-17. An even rarer subset of grains with extremely large enrichments in O-17 and smaller depletions in O-18 were suggested to come from binary star systems [2]. To establish the origins of these isotopically unusual grains, it is necessary to examine isotopic systems in addition to O. Presolar silicates offer several elements diagnostic of their stellar sources and nuclear processes, including O, Si, Mg, Fe and Ca. However, the database for minor element isotopic compositions in silicates is seriously lacking. To date only two silicate grains have been analyzed for Mg [4] or Fe [5]. One major complicating factor is their small size (average ~230 nm), which greatly limits the number of measurements that can be performed on any one grain and makes it more difficult to obtain statistically relevant data. This problem is compounded because the grains are identified among isotopically solar silicates, which contribute a diluting signal in isotopic measurements [1]. Thus, relatively small isotopic anomalies are missed due to this dilution effect. By applying focused ion beam (FIB) milling, we obtain undiluted Mg isotopic ratios of isolated rare presolar silicate grains to investigate their sources.

Messenger, Scott R.↗