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NASA NTRS2022

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons, it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the estimated time it will take the storm to reach the rig location from the time it is first detected. The objective of this study is to use 50 years of cyclone history from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) database, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity lies within the forecasted track cone and storm size of the upcoming cyclone. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. In addition, the tool allows the user to input any T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Offshore Oil Drilling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Genomic analysis of Klebsiella aerogenes circulating in New Mexico

Klebsiella aerogenes is an opportunistic pathogen and a growing cause of healthcare-associated infections, characterized by multidrug resistance and the emergence of global high-risk clones. However, regional genomic surveillance data remain limited. Here, we sought to characterize the population structure, transmission dynamics and resistance mechanisms of clinical K. aerogenes in Albuquerque, New Mexico. We sequenced 177 clinical isolates collected between 2021 and 2023. We also developed a novel, species-specific PopPUNK database to facilitate rapid, high-resolution typing. The New Mexico K. aerogenes population was diverse but dominated by two global pandemic lineages, ST93 (47.5%) and ST4 (7.9%), which were significantly enriched for the virulence factors yersiniabactin and colibactin. Genomic evidence for recent local transmission was rare, with only four putative transmission pairs identified. The resistome was characterized by intrinsic and adaptive mutations. Nearly all isolates possessed gyrA mutations associated with decreased fluoroquinolone susceptibility. Mutations in the AmpC regulator AmpD and the outer membrane porin Omp36 were common, particularly within the dominant ST93 lineage. These mutations have been associated with increased AmpC-mediated carbapenem resistance. Our findings underscore the critical importance of genomic surveillance to monitor the transmission and evolution of adaptive resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gulf of Mexico Risk Analysis Database (GoMRAD)

The Gulf of Mexico Risk Analysis Database is comprehensive Esri geodatabase of vector layers, raster layers, and tables curated for risk analysis within the offshore Gulf of Mexico. Datasets include bathymetry, seafloor characteristics (channels, anomalies, faults, etc.), MetOcean data (wind speed, wave height, etc.), ocean current data, sediment data, and machine learning training regions used in NETL's Ocean & Geohazard Analysis (OGA) tool. This database serves as a compliment to the OGA tool by providing many of the datasets used in the design of the OGA tool, including regions used for machine learning. This database also serves as a valuable resource for risk analysis studies within the offshore Gulf of Mexico. This work was completed under the Advanced Offshore Research Portfolio, FWP Number: 1022476.

BOEM,Bathymetry,Gulf Of Mexico,Machine Learning,Me↗

DOE OSTI2022

Offshore Oil and Gas Infrastructure Reuse for CCS: Opportunities and Challenges in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

The United States Gulf of Mexico has historically been a significant oil and gas producing region and continues to produce hydrocarbons today. As such, significant investments have been made to install oil and gas infrastructure such as pipelines, platforms, and wells. As these assets reach the end of their useful life or production associated with the assets is curtailed, the assets become a liability for both the owner/operators and the U.S. and state governments responsible for regulating the assets. There are costs and risks associated with safely decommissioning the assets, and in some cases, the assets may be abandoned (e.g., the owner is no longer a going concern). In parallel, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has developed in the United States and interest and incentives for CCS projects have accelerated in recent years, with many public announcements of CCS projects in development in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region. The region is particularly well-suited to CCS due to the high density of industry on the coastline (i.e., CO 2 sources) and favorable geology in the near-offshore region. CCS also requires the use of many of the same assets required for oil and gas production (pipelines, platforms, wells) and the oil and gas industry has direct experience with CO 2 transport and injection (i.e., EOR). Therefore, the combination of existing infrastructure in close proximity to potential CCS project sites appears to provide a potential “win-win” solution for re-use of existing oil and gas assets. This paper presents a high-level evaluation of oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico with the goals of identifying the scale of the opportunity (e.g., how much existing infrastructure is realistically re-usable), identifying gaps in knowledge/policy/information required to evaluate existing infrastructure for re-use, and proposing key actions that could be pursued to further the assessment of existing infrastructure re-use for CCS.

Infrastructure, reuse, re-purpose, oil and gas, pi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multidrug-resistant Shigella flexneri outbreak affecting humans and non-human primates in New Mexico, USA

Shigellosis is a gastrointestinal infection caused by species of Shigella . A large outbreak of Shigella flexneri serotype 2a occurred in Albuquerque, New Mexico between May 2021 and November 2023 that involved humans and non-human primates (NHP) from a local zoo. We analyzed the genomes of 202 New Mexican isolates as well as 15 closely related isolates from other states, and four from NHP. The outbreak was initially detected within men who have sex with men but then predominantly affected people experiencing homelessness. Nearly 70% of cases were hospitalized and there was one human death. The outbreak extended into Albuquerque’s BioPark Zoo, causing high morbidity and six deaths in NHPs. All isolates were multidrug-resistant, including towards fluoroquinolones, a first line treatment option which led to treatment failures in human and NHP populations. We show the circulation of the same S. flexneri strain in humans and NHPs, causing fatalities in both populations. This study demonstrates the threat of antimicrobial resistant organisms to vulnerable human and NHP populations and emphasizes the value of genomic surveillance within a One Health framework.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of ambient polychlorinated biphenyl background conditions in surface waters of the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico

Abstract This study presents the development of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) background threshold values (BTVs) that statistically characterize ambient background conditions for surface waters in undeveloped and developed landscapes of the Pajarito Plateau in the Rio Grande Basin of New Mexico. Between 2009 and 2018, surface water data were collected at 45 locations under a variety of flow conditions and regimes. A total of 163 samples were collected, with roughly 1/3 of samples and locations being in undeveloped areas (n = 53 from 17 locations), and the remainder being in developed areas (n = 110 from 28 locations). While there are areas on the Pajarito Plateau where PCB point sources are known or likely to have contributed to PCBs in soils, PCB BTVs calculated for undeveloped portions of watersheds (upstream of areas where PCB point sources are known or likely to have contributed to PCBs in soils, and therefore not affected by PCB sources within the watershed) are well above New Mexico's human health organism-only (HH-OO) water quality criterion (0.64 ng/L). Background threshold values are even higher in developed areas upstream of managed soil sites, suggesting that in developed areas, both diffuse ambient PCB sources (e.g., atmospheric deposition) and localized urban sources (e.g., building materials, paints, and electrical equipment) contribute to PCBs in those watersheds. These findings indicate that New Mexico's current HH-OO water quality criterion for PCBs cannot practicably be met due to ambient conditions. It is also impracticable to meet the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) criterion continuous concentration (CCC) of 14 ng/L in developed background areas, where the BTV is approximately 1.5 times the CCC. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1307–1319. © 2022 SETAC

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative Warming of Atlantic SSTs

Abstract Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree‐ring reconstructions have suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). However, tree ring records tend to reflect winter‐spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings suggest future precipitation in Northeast Mexico is more dependent upon the warming of Tropical Atlantic SSTs relative to the Tropical Pacific.

Wright, Kevin T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Groundwater Volume Loss in Mexico City Constrained by InSAR and GRACE Observations and Mechanical Models

Abstract Groundwater withdrawal can cause localized and rapid poroelastic subsidence, spatially broad elastic uplift of low amplitude, and changes in the gravity field. Constraining groundwater loss in Mexico City, we analyze data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its follow‐on mission (GRACE/FO) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Sentinel‐1A/B images between 2014 and 2021. GRACE/FO observations yield a groundwater loss of 0.85–3.87 km 3 /yr for a region of ∼300 × 600 km surrounding Mexico City. Using the high‐resolution interferometric SAR data set, we measure >35 cm/yr subsidence within the city and up to 2 cm/yr of uplift in nearby areas. Attributing the long‐term subsidence to poroelastic aquifer compaction and the long‐term uplift to elastic unloading, we apply respective models informed by local geology, yielding groundwater loss of 0.86–12.57 km 3 /yr. Our results suggest Mexico City aquifers have been depleting at faster rates since 2015, exacerbating the socioeconomic and health impacts of long‐term groundwater overdrafts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Calendar Year 2022 Annual Monitoring Report for Technical Area IV, Evaporation Lagoons Permit DP-530 at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico

Pursuant to Section 20.6.2.3104 of the New Mexico Administrative Code (NMAC), the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration/Sandia Field Office (DOE/NNSA/SFO) as owner and National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS) as operator are submitting this annual monitoring and discharge report for calendar year (CY) 2022 as required in Discharge Permit 530 (DP-530), issued by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) for the Pulsed Power Development Facilities Evaporation Lagoons located at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM) Technical Area IV (TA-IV).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Addendum to Architectural Documentation and National Register of Historic Places Evaluations of Built-Environment Resources at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos County, New Mexico

The Los Alamos National Laboratory contracted Statistical Research, Inc. (SRI), to document and evaluate 110 facilities for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register). This effort was conducted in compliance with Section 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, as amended; the Code of Federal Regulations (36 CFR 800); the Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos Field Office, the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Office and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning Management of the Historic Properties at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico; and A Plan for the Management of the Cultural Heritage at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico (LANL’s Cultural Resources Management Plan) (2017).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Domestic Dogs as Sentinels for West Nile Virus but not Aedes -borne Flaviviruses, Mexico

We tested 294 domestic pet dogs in Mexico for neutralizing antibodies for mosquito-borne flaviviruses. We found high (42.6%) exposure to West Nile virus in Reynosa (northern Mexico) and low (1.2%) exposure in Tuxtla Gutierrez (southern Mexico) but very limited exposure to Aedes-borne flaviviruses. In conclusion, domestic dogs may be useful sentinels for West Nile virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of a Prescribed Fire on Air Quality in Central New Mexico

A short-duration but high-impact air quality event occurred on 28 November 2018 along the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. This fire occurred outside the typical wildfire season, and greatly impacted the air quality in Socorro, NM, and the surroundings. Measurements were taken during the event using an aerosol light scattering technique (integrating nephelometer) and a particulate mass concentration monitor (DustTrak PM optical monitor). The instruments sampled the ambient air during the event on the campus of the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro, New Mexico. The peak values on a 5-min basis of light scattering and the PM mass concentration reached 470 Mm -1 and 270 µg/m 3 , respectively. We examined the meteorological context of the event using local meteorological data and back trajectories using the NOAA HYSPLIT model to determine atmospheric transport and possible sources. Several fires, both prescribed and wildfires, occurred in the region including a prescribed burn at Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge (17 km south-southeast of the receptor site). The data suggest that the prescribed burn at Bosque del Apache was the dominant contributor due to transport evidence and the event’s narrow spatiotemporal extent. The increasing importance of restoring ecosystem function using prescribed fire in wildland fire management will likely lead to more frequent air quality impacts and sets up policy tradeoffs that require a balance between these public goals. This study examines the evidence of the effects of a prescribed fire in a protected wildland area impacting the air quality in a nearby populated area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Distribution and movement of suspended sediment in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast

ERTS-1 imagery has proven very useful in studies of the distribution of suspended sediment in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast. Moreover, by using suspended matter concentrations as tags on water masses, much information on water movement can be obtained. The utility of suspended sediment as a tracer is dependent on the sediment remaining in suspension long enough to travel an appreciable distance or to be visible on successive images. Although the evidence is not conclusive, it seems likely that much of the suspended sediment in Gulf of Mexico nearshore waters during normal seastate conditions has remained in suspension since the time of its entry into the Gulf of Mexico through rivers and tidal inlets.

Hunter, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications in Mexico

The first year of cost-competitiveness, the market potential, and the environment in which PV systems would be marketed and employed were examined. Market elements specific to Mexico addressed include: (1) useful applications and estimates of the potential market for PV systems; (2) power requirements and load profiles for applications compatible with PV usage; (3) operating and cost characteristics of power systems that compete against PV; (4) national development goals in rural electrification and rural services, technology programs and government policies that influence the demand for PV in Mexico; (5) financing mechanisms and capital available for PV acquisition; (6) channels for distribution, installation and maintenance of PV systems; and (7) appropriate methods for conducting business in Mexico.

Steigelmann, W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A study of satellite-derived moisture with emphasis on the Gulf of Mexico

Visible-Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) moisture retrievals are compared to the National Meteorological Center Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) 12-h forecast and to 1200 UTC rawinsondes over the U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico on a daily basis for nearly 1.5 years. The principal objective is to determine what information the current moisture retrievals add to that available from the RAFS and surface data. The data are examined from the climatological perspective, that is, total precipitable water over the seasons for three geographical regions, and also for synoptic applications, that is, vertical and horizontal resolution. VAS retrievals are found to be systematically too moist at higher values. The variance of the VAS soundings more closely agrees with the rawinsonde at locations around the Gulf of Mexico than the RAFS. An examination of a case (6 June 1989) over the Gulf of Mexico region comparing three layers of VAS-derived moisture to the RAFS forecast shows the former capable of outperforming the latter in both the horizontal and, to some extent, the vertical frame of reference.

Schreiner, Anthony J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Improved Hypoxia Modeling for Nutrient Control Decisions in the Gulf of Mexico

As required by the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research Control Act of 1998, the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force issued the 2001 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan (updated in 2008). In response to the Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan of 2001 (updated in 2008), the EPA Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Modeling and Monitoring Project has established a detailed model for the Mississippi-Attchafalaya River Basin which provides a capability to forecast the multi-source nutrient loading to the Gulf and the subsequent bio-geochemical processes leading to hypoxic conditions and subsequent effects on Gulf habitats and fisheries. The primary purpose of the EPA model is to characterize the impacts of nutrient management actions, or proposed actions on the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Gulf hypoxic zone. The model is expected to play a significant role in determining best practices and improved strategies for incentivizing nutrient reduction strategies, including installation of on-farm structures to reduce sediment and nutrient runoff, use of cover crops and other agricultural practices, restoration of wetlands and riparian buffers, improved waste water treatment and decreased industrial nitrogen emissions. These decisions are currently made in a fragmented way by federal, state, and local agencies, using a variety of small scale models and limited data. During the past three years, EPA has collected an enormous amount of in-situ data to be used in the model. We believe that the use of NASA satellite data products in the model and for long term validation of the model has the potential to significantly increase the accuracy and therefore the utility of the model for the decision making described above. This proposal addresses the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) priority issue of reductions in nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystem. It further directly relates to water quality for healthy beaches and shellfish beds and wetland and coastal conservation restoration.

Habib, Shaid↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Application of Remotely Sensed Data and Models to Benefit Conservation and Restoration Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast

New data, tools, and capabilities for decision making are significant needs in the northern Gulf of Mexico and other coastal areas. The goal of this project is to support NASA s Earth Science Mission Directorate and its Applied Science Program and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance by producing and providing NASA data and products that will benefit decision making by coastal resource managers and other end users in the Gulf region. Data and research products are being developed to assist coastal resource managers adapt and plan for changing conditions by evaluating how climate changes and urban expansion will impact land cover/land use (LCLU), hydrodynamics, water properties, and shallow water habitats; to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration; and to distribute datasets to end-users and facilitating user interaction with models. The proposed host sites for data products are NOAA s National Coastal Data Development Center Regional Ecosystem Data Management, and Mississippi-Alabama Habitat Database. Tools will be available on the Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative website with links to data portals to enable end users to employ models and datasets to develop and evaluate LCLU and climate scenarios of particular interest. These data will benefit the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program in ongoing efforts to protect and restore the Fish River watershed and around Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. The usefulness of data products and tools will be demonstrated at an end-user workshop.

Quattrochi, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2016

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.

Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗