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At least 37 records · Page 2

Experimental uncertainty quantification using templates of expected measurement uncertainties for fast neutron-induced total, capture, and scattering cross sections

Careful experimental uncertainty quantification (UQ) is key for developing trustworthy evaluated nuclear data. Templates to account for missing or under-reported experimental uncertainties were recently developed by the covariance committee of Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). In this work, we illustrate the practical application and limitations of these templates for selected neutron-induced reactions, including (n, tot), (n, γ), and (n, xn) in the fast energy range, to illustrate their use in data analyses for nuclear data evaluations. We show that while the templates provide consistent framework, proper implementation still requires detailed knowledge of experimental conditions and careful treatment of nonlinear effects in cross section derivation. Case studies highlight how template-assisted UQ improves consistency with previous evaluations such as ENDF/B and reveals open challenges in propagating uncertainties across different energy regimes. The main contribution of this paper is to connect formal template recommendations with their use in practical evaluation workflows, clarifying both their benefits and current limitations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Facility Measurement Uncertainty Analysis at NASA GRC

This presentation provides and overview of the measurement uncertainty analysis currently being implemented in various facilities at NASA GRC. This presentation includes examples pertinent to the turbine engine community (mass flow and fan efficiency calculation uncertainties.

measurement↗

Measurement Uncertainty in One-of-a-kind Experiments

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experimental measurement multiple times and calculate the measured value with experimental uncertainty by following well developed statistical procedures. For various reasons – cost, technical difficulty, international treaties, ethics of dealing with human or animal subjects, ecology - many important experiments and observations can not be repeated. Astronomy, earthquakes, hurricanes produce data from one-of-a-kind events. When information is not available in any other way, it should not be dismissed as qualitative, anecdotal evidence only. Analyzed in a mathematically rigorous way, it produces quantitative experimental data. Analysis of data from one-of-a-kind event differs from analysis of repeated experiments’ data. For repeated experiments, the experimental error includes a range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by detectors. They are independent. Repetitions of any experiment, as similar as achievable, always have built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. Measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement system only. Digital measurements have very small uncertainty, frequently smaller than the range of true experimental values resulting from built-in differences in the experiment repetitions. When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty can be reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for average prompt and total fission neutron multiplicities

In this paper, we provide templates of measurement uncertainty sources expected to appear for average prompt- and total-fission neutron multiplicities, $ \overline\nu_p $ and $ \overline\nu_t $, for the following measurement types: absolute manganese-bath experiments for $ \overline\nu_t $, absolute and ratio liquid-scintillator measurements for $ \overline\nu_p $. These templates also suggest a typical range of these uncertainties and their correlations based on a survey of available experimental data, associated literature, and feedback from experimentalists. In addition, the information needed to faithfully include the associated experimental data into the nuclear-data evaluation process is provided.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Measurement uncertainty of rossi-alpha neutron experiments

Rossi-alpha neutron experiments are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant of a fissile assembly, a quantity of widespread interest in applications including in nuclear nonproliferation and criticality safety. This work develops a mathematical model to efficiently estimate measurement uncertainty of Rossi-alpha neutron experiments inferred from a two-exponential fit model with histogram binning. The derived uncertainty estimates were validated using repeated Rossi-alpha measurements of a subcritical, 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium with nickel, copper, tungsten, and polyethylene reflectors. The estimates of uncertainty for the histogram data produced by the model were conservative and agree with the reference uncertainties within noise. The estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant uncertainty agreed with the reference uncertainties within one standard deviation. In conclusion, the proposed model will reduce total measurement times, ultimately reducing operational and procedural costs in application.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A PC program for estimating measurement uncertainty for aeronautics test instrumentation

A personal computer program was developed which provides aeronautics and operations engineers at Lewis Research Center with a uniform method to quickly provide values for the uncertainty in test measurements and research results. The software package used for performing the calculations is Mathcad 4.0, a Windows version of a program which provides an interactive user interface for entering values directly into equations with immediate display of results. The error contribution from each component of the system is identified individually in terms of the parameter measured. The final result is given in common units, SI units, and percent of full scale range. The program also lists the specifications for all instrumentation and calibration equipment used for the analysis. It provides a presentation-quality printed output which can be used directly for reports and documents.

Blumenthal, Philip Z.↗

Measurement Uncertainty of Highly Asymmetrically Curved Elliptical Mirrors Using Multi-Pitch Slope Stitching Technique

Soft X-ray off-axis elliptical mirrors bring new challenges for X-ray mirror metrology. These highly asymmetrically curved elliptical cylindrical mirrors with a total slope range >10 mrad are extremely challenging to measure. Their total slope range exceeds the measuring range of most angular sensors used for X-ray mirror inspection. To overcome this problem, it is possible to stitch partial slope data by measuring the mirror at different pitch angles (multi-pitch angles). By revisiting the theory of the multi-pitch Nano-accuracy Surface Profiler (NSP), we derive the sampling position error on the mirror surface as a function of the mirror height profile and the measurement error of the pitch rotation center. When measuring “extreme”, highly asymmetrically curved, elliptical mirrors, the calculation of the mirror height profile with iterative reconstruction outperforms the classical “flat assumption” (i.e., assuming that the mirror sag is negligible). As demonstrated by our simulations, a proper tolerance evaluation on the measurement of pitch rotation center is needed to assess the measurement accuracy (systematic error) for these strongly aspherical mirrors using the multi-pitch NSP technique. Taking a real design of an “extreme” elliptical mirror as a case study, we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to mimic the measurement and characterization process to analyze the impact of several error sources. With the measurement uncertainty of the pitch rotation center, the multi-pitch NSP measurement can estimate the grazing angle θ and the chief ray location x o with their uncertainties, as well as the slope residuals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Infrared-fiber-optic fire sensor developments - Role of measurement uncertainty in evaluation of background limited range

Fire-detector systems based on distributed infrared fiber-sensors have been investigated for potential applications in the aerospace industry. Responsivities to blackbody and flame radiations were measured with various design configurations of an infrared fiber-optic sensor. Signal processing techniques were also investigated, and the results show significant differences in the fire-sensor performance depending on the design configuration. Measurement uncertainties were used to determine the background-limited ranges for the various fire-sensor concepts, and the probability of producing false alarms caused by fluctuations in the background signals were determined using extreme probability theory. The results of the research show that infrared fiber-optic fire sensors are feasible for application on manned spacecraft; however, additional development work will be required to eliminate false alarms caused by high temperature objects such as incandescent lamps.

Tapphorn, Ralph M.↗

Repeatability and measurement uncertainty of the United States meteorological rocketsonde

It is pointed out that rocketsondes provide the only in situ 'ground truth' data for altitudes above 30 km. The need for precise temperature information has, therefore, led to a study of rocketsonde instrument repeatability and measurement uncertainty. Results obtained from root-mean-square difference and linear regression techniques are consistent and strongly suggest that the Datasonde precision is better than 1 C up to an altitude of 53 or 54 km. This result excludes atmospheric variability, which may occur within 5 min, and effects owing to spatial differences, which are small for paired measurements. At altitudes of 55 km and higher it is possible that sensor and flight-related anomalies, differences in radiation corrections owing to differing solar angles because of varying launch times, or even seasonal variations may create conditions that affect the magnitude of the standard corrections.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

Acoustic Liner Drag: Measurement Uncertainty Reduction and Application to Novel Perforate Geometries

In addition to developing acoustic liner concepts and characterizing their performance, the NASA Langley Liner Physics Team has investigated issues related to liner drag. A method to quantify relative drag of liner configurations was developed and employed to understand the effects of various liner features. It was observed that perforate shape could have a marked effect on the measured liner drag and led to the discovery of a low-drag geometry that cut the drag penalty between a perforate and a smooth wall by approximately 50%. Investigations of novel perforates to further reduce drag were stymied by measurement uncertainty that prevented further resolution of drag differences between configurations. The current study details efforts to understand the causes of this uncertainty and describe changes made to testing methods to reduce it. Previously evaluated perforates were retested with these improvements in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube to determine their relative drag at a flow speed of Mach 0.5 without acoustic excitation. Their performance was compared to the previously identified low-drag geometry to see if further drag reductions could be realized.

drag↗

Acoustic Liner Drag: Measurement Uncertainty Reduction and Application to Novel Perforate Geometries

In addition to developing acoustic liner concepts and characterizing their performance, the NASA Langley Liner Physics Team has investigated issues related to liner drag. A method to quantify relative drag of liner configurations was developed and employed to understand the effects of various liner features. It was observed that perforate shape could have a marked effect on the measured liner drag and led to the discovery of a low-drag geometry that cut the drag penalty between a perforate and a smooth wall by approximately 50%. Investigations of novel perforates to further reduce drag were stymied by measurement uncertainty that prevented further resolution of drag differences between configurations. The current study details efforts to understand the causes of this uncertainty and describe changes made to testing methods to reduce it. Previously evaluated perforates were retested with these improvements in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube to determine their relative drag at a flow speed of Mach 0.5 without acoustic excitation. Their performance was compared to the previously identified low-drag geometry to see if further drag reductions could be realized.

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Estimating Sampling Biases and Measurement Uncertainties of AIRS-AMSU-A Temperature and Water Vapor Observations Using MERRA Reanalysis

We use MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research Applications) temperature and water vapor data to estimate the sampling biases of climatologies derived from the AIRS/AMSU-A (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) suite of instruments. We separate the total sampling bias into temporal and instrumental components. The temporal component is caused by the AIRS/AMSU-A orbit and swath that are not able to sample all of time and space. The instrumental component is caused by scenes that prevent successful retrievals. The temporal sampling biases are generally smaller than the instrumental sampling biases except in regions with large diurnal variations, such as the boundary layer, where the temporal sampling biases of temperature can be +/- 2 K and water vapor can be 10% wet. The instrumental sampling biases are the main contributor to the total sampling biases and are mainly caused by clouds. They are up to 2 K cold and greater than 30% dry over mid-latitude storm tracks and tropical deep convective cloudy regions and up to 20% wet over stratus regions. However, other factors such as surface emissivity and temperature can also influence the instrumental sampling bias over deserts where the biases can be up to 1 K cold and 10% wet. Some instrumental sampling biases can vary seasonally and/or diurnally. We also estimate the combined measurement uncertainties of temperature and water vapor from AIRS/AMSU-A and MERRA by comparing similarly sampled climatologies from both data sets. The measurement differences are often larger than the sampling biases and have longitudinal variations.

MERRA↗

Effects of delta ray electrons on measurement uncertainties of harp system

A harp system, which is a multi-wire beam profile monitoring (MWPM) system, is planned upstream of the spallation target to make in situ calibration of beam current density configuration on the target along with beam imaging from luminescent coating on the beam entrance window at the Second Target Station (STS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This beam interception-based beam diagnostics system on the target will be used to ensure that the maximum beam loads on the target are within the design range during neutron production. Current design of the harp consists of three layers of measurement wires each of which is sandwiched between voltage biasing wire planes. The signal obtained from each measurement wire layer is disturbed by secondary electrons (SE) and delta rays produced by beam-matter interactions in neighboring wires and ionization of residual gases in accelerator vacuum. While the backgrounds from SE can be suppressed by voltage biasing, the delta-ray electrons with kinetic energies above keV ranges overcome the electric potential bias. In this paper, we study the effects of delta-rays on the measurement uncertainties of MWPM using the particle transport simulation code FLUKA. Furthermore, the cases where the harp system is installed in the proximity of a large delta ray sources such as proton beam window or in the core vessel filled with sub-atmospheric gas have been studied.

Lee, Yong Joong↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for neutron-induced capture and charged-particle production cross section observables

This paper provides a template of expected uncertainties and correlations for measurements of neutron-induced capture and charged-particle production cross sections. Measurements performed in-beam include total absorption spectroscopy, total energy detection, γ -ray spectroscopy, and direct charged-particle detection. Offline measurements include activation analysis and accelerator mass spectrometry. The information needed for proper use of the datasets in resonance region and high energy region evaluations is described, and recommended uncertainties are provided when specific values are not available for a dataset.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Templates of expected measurement uncertainties for total neutron cross-section observables

This paper provides a template of expected uncertainties and correlations for measurements of total neutron cross-section observables by transmission. Measurements with time-of-flight and mono-energetic neutron sources are covered. The information required for evaluations in the resonance region and high energy region is detailed, along with the template of uncertainties and correlations that can be used in the absence of other information.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Minimization of Measurement Uncertainty in Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a technique for interrogating optical fiber sensors to generate relative, quasi-distributed measurements. Although Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is increasingly being adopted for aerospace, energy production, and structural monitoring applications, the quantification of uncertainty for OFDR measurements has not been developed beyond sparse empirical relationships. To address this knowledge gap, an uncertainty metric for OFDR measurements was developed. This uncertainty metric was applied to weight the edges between OFDR measurements on directed correlation graphs and analyzed to minimize the cumulative uncertainty. In conclusion, this work is the first to propose an uncertainty metric for OFDR and provides a generalized mathematical framework for optimizing OFDR hardware selection, optical fiber sensor selection, and postprocessing strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Atmospheric Variability and Measurement Uncertainty: Pitfalls in Averaging in situ Data

Satellite measurements and atmospheric models, two essential components of the integrated global observing system, provide crucial tools for monitoring and predicting regional and global foci, spanning numerous Earth Science fields. Unfortunately, models can lack the spatial and temporal resolution needed to resolve finer scale structure. Satellite measurements also have similar tempo-spatial restriction issues, but additionally can only measure certain species and can have biases that must be evaluated. Ground measurement networks are critical components of this system, by providing both independent inputs of species needed by models (including those that satellites do not provide) and assisting with investigation of biases in satellite products. Similarly, aircraft measurements play a vital role in closing the gaps between satellite measurements, model products, and ground monitoring networks by providing high accuracy, high-resolution data on local to regional spatial scales. Therefore, both ground-based and airborne observations are widely used to assess model predictions and satellite observations. One of the great challenges in using both ground and aircraft data in this fashion is matching the data temporally and spatially to the model/satellite data. A meaningful comparison with model or satellite requires a solid assessment of the variability of the in-situ measurements, which include both the instrument uncertainty and the statistical uncertainty due to atmospheric variability. While instrument uncertainty is generally more straightforwardly characterized, it can be challenging to accurately capture this variability uncertainty as it often presents in a non-Gaussian manner (e.g. emission plumes, frontal passages). We will present results examining spatial and temporal variability over a selection of scales relevant to satellite measurements and models of several in situ measurement species spanning both airborne and ground measurements. The extent of non-Gaussian variability will be quantified, and we will discuss additional statistical parameters that help assess the fitness of gaussian variability assumption when temporally or spatially averaging.

satellite validation↗