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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Endogenizing Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Risks in Deterministic Capacity Expansion Models

In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.

capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

EMISApproximateEquilibrium.jl [SWR-19-56]

The Electricity Markets Investment Suite Approximate Equilibrium (EMIS-AE) package is developed at NREL and provides a solution capability to solve generation expansion equilibrium problems in the electricity markets. EMIS-AE is designed to capture the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio resulting from the interactions of heterogeneous investors under different policy and market designs. The investment problem for each generation company (GENCO) is a bi-level problem with the investment decision made in the upper level and market clearing condition in the lower level, which traditionally is represented as a Mathematical Program with Equilibrium Constraint (MPEC). EMIS-AE provides a predictive model to be trained for estimating the system-wide revenues for each technology type across energy, ancillary services and capacity markets given the amount of installed capacity on the grid. The profit maximization investment problem for each GENCO is solved using a global search algorithm, which uses the predictive model to evaluate the objective function. To solve for the strategic equilibrium, each GENCO’s problem is plugged into a diagonalization algorithm that is generally used in multi-leader, single-follower bi-level problems.

Dalvi, Sourabh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Design Approaches for Cost-Effective Manufacturing & Deployment of Chemical Process Families with Economies of Numbers

This work builds on our optimization formulation for process family design and extends it to explicitly include the benefits of economies of numbers. Economies of numbers (sometimes referred to as economies of learning) is a well-documented cost saving phenomenon. It characterizes the manufacturing cost savings due to standardization; in particular, it is capturing the correlation between cost reduction and the number of times a particular product has been manufactured. Following an approach similar to that in Gazzaneo et al. (2022), we develop a costing expression that captures material costs and manufacturing costs as a function of the number of unit modules produced. If the platform has a small number of unit module designs, we will be manufacturing a large number of each of these designs and gaining increased benefits from economies of numbers. However, increasing the number of unit module designs in the platform gives each process variant more choices to consider (at the cost of reducing economies of numbers). The optimization formulation in Stinchfield et al. (2023) pre-specified the number of unit module designs to be included in the platform. Here, by including the economies of numbers explicitly, we allow the mathematical programming formulation to determine the optimal number of unit module designs to include in the platform. We demonstrate this approach on multiple case studies, including MEA-based carbon capture and water desalination.

Stinchfield, Georgia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable and Memory-Efficient Algorithms for Controlling Networked Epidemic Processes Using Multiplicative Weights Update Method

We study the problem of designing scalable algorithms to find effective intervention strategies for controlling stochastic epidemic processes on networks. This is a common problem arising in agent based models for epidemic spread. Previous approaches to this problem focus on either heuristics with no guarantees or approximation algorithms that scale only to networks corresponding to county-sized populations, typically, with less than a million nodes. In particular, the mathematical-programming based approaches need to solve the Linear Program (LP) relaxation of the problem using an LP solver, which restricts the scalability of this approach. In this work, we overcome this restriction by designing an algorithm that adapts the multiplicative weights update (MWU) framework, along with the sample average approximation (SAA) technique, to approximately solve the linear program (LP) relaxation for the problem. To scale this approach further, we provide a memory-efficient algorithm that enables scaling to large networks, corresponding to country-size populations, with over 300 million nodes and 30 billion edges. Furthermore, we show that this approach provides near-optimal solutions to the LP in practice.

Sambaturu, Prathyush↗
DOE OSTI2020

PREEMPT: Scalable Epidemic Interventions Using Submodular Optimization on Multi-GPU Systems

Preventing and slowing the spread of epidemics is achieved through techniques such as vaccination and social distancing. Given practical limitations on the number of vaccines and cost of administration, optimization becomes a necessity. Previous approaches using mathematical programming methods have shown to be effective but are limited by computational costs. In this work, we make several contributions: First, we present a new approach for intervention via maximizing the influence of vaccinated nodes on the network. We call this method \preempt. Next, we prove submodular properties associated with the objective function of our method so that it aids in construction of an efficient greedy approximation strategy. Consequently, we present a new parallel algorithm based on greedy hill climbing for \preempt, and present an efficient parallel implementation for distributed CPU-GPU heterogeneous platforms. Our results demonstrate that \preempt{} is able to achieve a significant reduction (up to 6.75$\times$) in the percentage of people infected on a city-scale network. We also show strong scaling results of \preempt{} on 128 nodes of the Summit supercomputer. Our parallel implementation is able to significantly reduce time to solution, from hours to minutes on large networks. This work represents a first-of-its-kind effort in parallelizing greedy hill climbing and applying it toward devising effective interventions for epidemics.

Minutoli, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Strategic Behavior of an Active Distribution Network in the ISO Markets

With increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), active distribution networks (ADNs) can actively participate in the electricity markets by dispatching their DERs, which can change the existing electricity market paradigm. It is essential to investigate the strategic behaviors of ADNs and their DER dispatch when they participate in the wholesale market as price-makers. This paper proposes a bi-level optimization model to study the strategic behavior of an ADN in both energy and reserve markets. The optimal scheduling of DERs in the ADN is modeled as the upper level problem and the joint energy and reserve market-clearing of the ISO is modeled as the lower-level problem. The two-level optimization models exchange bidding information and energy/reserve prices with each other. The proposed bi-Ievel optimization problem is converted to a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) by using Karush-Kuhn Tucker (KKT) conditions and strong duality theory. Further, the MPEC problem is reformulated as a computationally-solvable mixed integer second order cone programming (MISOCP) model. The simulation results on an illustrative case demonstrate the impact of the strategic bidding of the ADN on the day-ahead energy and reserve market prices.

Xue, Yaosuo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Mathematical Exposition of an Industrial-Scale Linear Program

Industrial-scale models require considerable setup time; hence, once built, they are used in myriad ways to consider closely related cases. In practice, the code for these models frequently evolves without appropriate notational choices, largely as a result of the lengthy development time of, and the number of individuals contributing to, their formulation. This leads to inefficiencies and obfuscates model structures that might be leveraged to expedite solutions. In this paper, we advocate for an emerging literature on model formulation “best practices” and present the reformulation of a widely used industrial-scale linear program. The efficient mathematical expression of this linear program, used to plan capacity expansion in the energy sector, allows for greater transparency of model structures and enhanced ability to identify computational performance improvements, as well as a lucid interpretation of its solutions. This type of formulation is employed in several mathematical programming courses at our university as an example of the advantages of best practices; the model more broadly is used widely to inform policy in the U.S. energy sector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Distribution Feeder Topology: A Differential Programming Learning Approach

This paper presents a gradient based method for optimizing distribution feeder network topology under load un- certainty. We recast the optimal network reconfiguration problem as a learning problem where edge weights of a graph are learned to produce an optimized spanning tree for a distribution network. Using recent methods published on differentiable programming, we provide a data driven method for learning these weights. We test our method on 100 variations of an IEEE 15-bus test system. Our results show that our method outperforms more traditional mathematical programming-based approaches.

differentiable programming↗
DOE OSTI2023

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multilane Automated Driving With Optimal Control and Mixed-Integer Programming

Road vehicle lane changes often initiate traffic disturbances and can therefore impact road networks’ energy and time efficiency. Furthermore, unexpected changes in traffic conditions may also render lane changes counterproductive for the lane-changing vehicle. Vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity combined with anticipative control could address these challenges via improved lane change decisions by automated vehicles. In a move toward this objective, receding horizon control cast as a mixed-integer quadratic program is used to plan lane changing and acceleration in a coupled optimization. A long-term pacing module, based on Pontryagin’s minimum principle from optimal control theory, sets terminal and input references for receding horizon control to target a user’s expected travel time. To remove nonlinear vehicle dynamics from the receding horizon controller, lane change commands are passed to a pure pursuit steering module whose response is approximated by a second-order linear model. Here, comparison against a rule-based reactive algorithm in arterial and highway scenarios shows an 8.9%–13.7% reduction in energy consumption and a 5.2%–10.3% reduction in the travel time, along with navigational improvements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Genetic programming for the nuclear many-body problem: a guide

Genetic Programming (GP) is an evolutionary algorithm that generates computer programs, or mathematical expressions, to solve complex problems. In this Guide, we demonstrate how to use GP to develop surrogate models to mitigate the computational costs of modeling atomic nuclei with ever increasing complexity. The computational burden escalates when uncertainty quantification is pursued, or when observables must be globally computed for thousands of nuclei. By studying three models in which the mean field depends on the total particle density self-consistently, we show that by constructing reduced order models supported by GP one can speed up many-body computations by several orders of magnitude with a negligible loss in accuracy.

dimensionality reduction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Workforce planning: a review of methodologies

Workforce planning deals with determining the number of employees and associated skills necessary to meet the future operational needs of an organization. A workforce system consists of six elements: recruitment, attrition, promotion, training, retention, and scheduling. Historically, several workforce modeling and analysis methodologies have been developed to capture these elements. This paper reviews the results of workforce and manpower models published within peer-reviewed literature between 1959 and 2021 to provide an in-depth analysis of current models. The focus of this review is on analytical, simulation, and empirical models found in literature that were collected based on a citation requirement and keyword search criteria. Results demonstrate the trends in workforce modeling research and discuss the common uses of each model type and the advantages/disadvantages related to each model. Based on the common attributes of workforce systems, the discussion focuses on the most frequently used model type for each element and the best use for each model. Lastly, recommendations are made for the development of workforce models that allow the most comprehensive view of the workforce systems of the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyperplane decision trees as piecewise linear surrogate models for chemical process design

Recent trends in chemical engineering research point towards an increasing reliance on data-driven modeling approaches. Neural networks, for instance, have proven to be accurate when data is plentiful and high-dimensional, but in many cases, they require computationally-intensive training procedures. Here, in this work, we describe hyperplane decision trees (HT) as a highly expressive and low-compute machine learning model architecture. These models are locally linear and have linear decision boundaries, resulting in a piecewise linear model of the data. This property allows them to be converted into mixed-integer linear constraints which can be globally optimized. Our open-source PyTorch implementation of this method is a fast, flexible, and accessible way to build accurate piecewise linear models of data.

Decision trees↗
DOE OSTI2023

Co-design optimization of combined heat and power-based microgrids

With the emergent need for clean and reliable energy resources, hybrid energy systems, such as the microgrid, are widely adopted in the United States. A microgrid can consist of various distributed energy resources, for instance, combined heat and power (CHP) systems. Here, the CHP module is a distributed cogeneration technology that produces electricity and recaptures heat generated as a by-product. It is an energy-efficient technology converting heat that would otherwise be wasted to valuable thermal energy. For an optimal system configuration, this study develops a novel co-design optimization framework for CHP-based cogeneration microgrids. The framework provides the stakeholder with a method to optimize investments and attain resilient operations. The proposed co-design framework has a mixed integer programming (MIP) model that outputs decisions for both plant designs and operating controls. The microgrid considered in this study contains six components: the CHP, boiler, heat recovery unit, thermal storage system, power storage system, and photovoltaic plant. After solving the MIP model, the optimal design parameters of each component can be found to minimize the total installation cost of all components in the microgrid. Furthermore, the online costs from energy production, operation, maintenance, machine startup, and disruption-induced unsatisfied loads are minimized by solving the optimal control decisions for operations. Case studies based on designing a CHP-based microgrid with empirical data are conducted. Moreover, we consider both nominal and disruptive operational scenarios to validate the performance of the proposed co-design framework in terms of a cost-effective, resilient system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Classical combinatorial optimization scaling for random Ising models on 2D heavy-hex graphs

Motivated by near term quantum computing hardware limitations, combinatorial optimization problems that can be addressed by current quantum algorithms and noisy hardware with little or no overhead are used to probe capabilities of quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm. In this study, a specific class of near term quantum computing hardware defined combinatorial optimization problems, Ising models on heavy-hex graphs both with and without geometrically local cubic terms, are examined for their classical computational hardness via empirical computation time scaling quantification. Specifically the time-to-solution (TTS) metric using the classical heuristic simulated annealing is measured for finding optimal variable assignments (ground states), as well as the time required for the optimization software Gurobi to find an optimal variable assignment. Because of the sparsity of these Ising models, the classical algorithms are able to find optimal solutions efficiently even for large instances (i.e. 100 000 spin variables). The Ising models both with and without geometrically local cubic terms exhibit average-case linear-time or weakly quadratic scaling when solved exactly using Gurobi, and the Ising models with no cubic terms show evidence of exponential-time TTS scaling when sampled using simulated annealing. These findings point to the necessity of developing and testing more complex, namely more densely connected, optimization problems in order for quantum computing to ever have a practical advantage over classical computing. Our results are another illustration that different classical algorithms can indeed have exponentially different running times, thus making the identification of the best practical classical technique important in any quantum computing vs. classical computing comparison.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design Considerations and Analysis of Multi-Level Erasure Coding in Large-Scale Data Centers

Multi-level erasure coding (MLEC) has seen large deployments in the field, but there is no in-depth study of design considerations for MLEC at scale. In this paper, we provide comprehensive design considerations and analysis of MLEC at scale. We introduce the design space of MLEC in multiple dimensions, including various code parameter selections, chunk placement schemes, and various repair methods. We quantify their performance and durability, and show which MLEC schemes and repair methods can provide the best tolerance against independent/correlated failures and reduce repair network traffic by orders of magnitude. To achieve this, we use various evaluation strategies including simulation, splitting, dynamic programming, and mathematical modeling. We also compare the performance and durability of MLEC with other EC schemes such as SLEC and LRC and show that MLEC can provide high durability with higher encoding throughput and less repair network traffic over both SLEC and LRC.

Wang, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Handling Iterative Solvers in an Algorithmic Differentiation Framework Using Implicit Methods

Differentiable programming is a powerful concept as it enables the seemly propagation of gradients through functions, algorithms, and/or whole physics simulations. These gradients are useful for a wide variety of applications, including sensitivity studies and machine learning, but one of particular interest is optimization. Gradient-based optimization, enabled through automatic/algorithmic differentiation (AD), can be used on predictive physical models to efficiently optimize a set of design variables. AD methods are a particularly promising approach to complex physics simulations because they can be shown to scale well with an increasing number of design variables; however, care must be taken when coupling between different models or different states of a single model.

algorithmic differentiation↗