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DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

MARS-Q modeling of low- n resistive kink-peeling modes and edge harmonic oscillations in DIII-D

Linear and quasilinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling is carried out for two DIII-D discharges that both featured a transition from quiescent H-mode (QH) to wide-pedestal QH (WPQH). The MHD perturbations, associated with the edge harmonic oscillations (EHOs) observed during the QH-phase in both discharges, are identified as low-n (n is the toroidal mode number) resistive kink-peeling instabilities, with the ideal MHD counterpart remaining stable. The quasilinear model successfully simulates EHO-like perturbations during the QH phase in both discharges, confirming the experimental observations. A less intuitive finding is the EHO-like behavior involving the n = 2 perturbation, simulated for one of the discharges during the WPQH-phase. This result, while consistent with experimental observations, is obtained despite the fact that the initial perturbation is linearly stable. The eventual growth of the perturbation is solely due to nonlinear interaction between the MHD perturbation and the plasma toroidal flow. The occurrence of the EHO-like perturbation during the WPQH-phase is found to be sensitive to the initial profile of the plasma edge rotation. For DIII-D plasmas considered, the neoclassical toroidal viscosity, generated by three-dimensional low-n perturbations, is found to play a dominant role in modifying the edge flow during EHOs.

EHO↗

DOE OSTI2024

MHD stability analysis against pressure and current-driven modes in the SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak

Linear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations for the SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART) have been carried out for the first time, for both positive (PT) and negative triangularity (NT) shaped plasmas using the MARS-F code. The MHD stability of projected SMART plasmas against internal kinks, infernal modes and edge peeling-ballooning modes have been analyzed for a wide range of realistic equilibria. A stabilization of internal kinks and infernal modes is observed when increasing the safety factor profile and reducing plasma beta. PT shaped plasmas are more stable against both internal kinks and infernal modes than their counterpart NT shaped plasmas. Toroidal flows have little impact on the MHD stability of the internal kinks, but they have a strong stabilizing effect on infernal modes, which can be further mitigated in NT shaped plasmas. The MHD stability of peeling-ballooning modes is reduced in NT shaped plasmas, as observed in conventional tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Overview of recent experimental results on the EAST Tokamak

Since the last IAEA-FEC in 2021, significant progress on the development of long pulse steady state scenario and its related key physics and technologies have been achieved, including the reproducible 403 s long-pulse steady-state H-mode plasma with pure radio frequency (RF) power heating. A thousand-second time scale (~1056 s) fully non-inductive plasma with high injected energy up to 1.73 GJ has also been achieved. The EAST operational regime of high β P has been significantly extended (H 98y2 > 1.3, β P ~ 4.0, β N ~ 2.4 and n e /n GW ~ 1.0) using RF and neutral beam injection (NBI). The full edge localized mode suppression using the n = 4 resonant magnetic perturbations has been achieved in ITER-like standard type-I ELMy H-mode plasmas with q 95 ≈ 3.1 on EAST, extrapolating favorably to the ITER baseline scenario. The sustained large ELM control and stable partial detachment have been achieved with Ne seeding. The underlying physics of plasma-beta effect for error field penetration, where toroidal effect dominates, is disclosed by comparing the results in cylindrical theory and MARS-Q simulation in EAST. Breakdown and plasma initiation at low toroidal electric fields (<0.3 V m -1 ) with EC pre-ionization is developed. A beneficial role on the lower hybrid wave injection to control the tungsten concentration in the NBI discharge is observed for the first time in EAST suggesting a potential way toward steady-state H-mode NBI operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for domain transfer between simulated and experimental 2D X-ray diffraction patterns using generative adversarial networks

X-ray diffraction (XRD) is a well-established technique for analyzing materials at an atomic level. Dynamic compression experiments (DCE), in which materials are subject to extreme pressures, can provide fundamental understanding to pressure-induced phase transitions and compression of the crystal lattice. The analysis of XRD patterns from highly compressed samples is non-trivial given the sparsity of data, high experimental costs, and the fact that the data is often marred with X-ray background and other artifacts. While accurate computational frameworks exist, they solve the forward problem—from structures and orientations to XRD patterns. Solving the inverse problem for 2D experimental diffraction patterns is currently a complex manual process of matching and comparing experimentally observed patterns to computationally generated ones. Machine learning is a promising tool for automating the matching process but often requires data-intensive architectures. Here, in this study, we use a CycleGAN to translate the domain of limited experimental data to a domain in which there is readily available simulated data. This domain shift allows data-intensive machine learning models that have only been trained on simulated XRD patterns to be used in the analysis of experiments.

Brozak, Samantha Jean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Panspermia Origin for Venus Cloud Life

Decades of study have hinted at the astrobiological potential of Venus's cloud layers. This potential is often cast as stemming from the idea that the Venusian surface was clement in the past. As the climate changed, life then remained in, or perhaps evolved and migrated to, the last habitable niche: the altitudes above ∼50 km with Earth-like temperatures and pressures today. Here we explore an alternative scenario where life was delivered to Venus' clouds from Earth or Mars (“panspermia”). This process requires a life-containing bolide to enter the atmosphere, without experiencing complete sterilization, and then be dispersed at high altitude in fragments small enough to dwell in the clouds. We adapt a widely used model of bolide-atmosphere interaction to investigate the fate of bolides delivered to Venus from Earth and Mars. Starting at the top of the atmosphere, bolides ablate and fragment. Aerodynamic drag spreads these fragments horizontally, forming a “pancake” with an increased effective cross-section, causing rapid deceleration. An airburst occurs when the bolide deposits its highest amount of kinetic energy in the atmosphere. Observations of terrestrial meteorites provide a scaling law for the distribution of post-airburst fragment sizes. Inspired by the “Venus Life Equation,” we present a framework for calculating the rate at which panspermia delivers microbial life to the clouds of Venus. Our best estimate is an average of ∼100 cells dispersed in the clouds per Earth-year. Whether this life can survive and thrive in its new home remains an open question.

Guinan, Emma [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extensive Secondary Cratering From the InSight Sol 1034a Impact Event

Abstract Impact cratering is one of the fundamental processes throughout the history of the Solar System. The formation of new impact craters on planetary bodies has been observed with repeat images from orbiting satellites. However, the time gap between images is often large enough to preclude detailed analysis of smaller‐scale features such as secondary impact craters, which are often removed or buried over a short time period. Here we use a seismic event detected on Mars by the NASA InSight mission to investigate secondary cratering at a new impact crater. We strengthen the case that the seismic event that occurred on Sol 1034 (S1034a) is the result of a new impact cratering event. Using the exact timing of this event from InSight, we investigated the resulting new impact crater in orbital image data. The S1034a impact crater is approximately 9 m in diameter but is responsible for over 900 secondary impact events in the form of low albedo spots that are located at distances of up to almost 7 km from the primary crater. We suggest that the low albedo spots formed from relatively low energy ejecta, with individual ejecta block velocities less than 200 m s −1 . We estimate that the low albedo spots, the main evidence of secondary impact processes at this new impact event, fade within 200–300 days after formation.

Grindrod, P. M. [Natural History Museum London UK]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Space radiation measurements during the Artemis I lunar mission

Space radiation is a notable hazard for long-duration human spaceflight. Associated risks include cancer, cataracts, degenerative diseases and tissue reactions from large, acute exposures. Space radiation originates from diverse sources, including galactic cosmic rays, trapped-particle (Van Allen) belts5 and solar-particle events. Previous radiation data are from the International Space Station and the Space Shuttle in low-Earth orbit protected by heavy shielding and Earth’s magnetic field and lightly shielded interplanetary robotic probes such as Mars Science Laboratory and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Limited data from the Apollo missions and ground measurements with substantial caveats are also available. Here we report radiation measurements from the heavily shielded Orion spacecraft on the uncrewed Artemis I lunar mission. At differing shielding locations inside the vehicle, a fourfold difference in dose rates was observed during proton-belt passes that are similar to large, reference solar-particle events. Interplanetary cosmic-ray dose equivalent rates in Orion were as much as 60% lower than previous observations. Furthermore, a change in orientation of the spacecraft during the proton-belt transit resulted in a reduction of radiation dose rates of around 50%. These measurements validate the Orion for future crewed exploration and inform future human spaceflight mission design.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Role of Surface Hydroxyls and Lattice Oxygen in Governing Selectivity and Restructuring During Acetic Acid Conversion on Fe 3 O 4 (001)

Understanding the reactivity of carboxylic acids on metal oxide surfaces is critical for elucidating ketonization mechanisms relevant to biomass upgrading. Here, we investigate the adsorption and thermal decomposition of acetic acid (CH 3 COOH) on Fe 3 O 4 (001) using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), temperature-programmed reaction spectroscopy (TPRS), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). At room temperature, acetic acid adsorbs dissociatively to form ordered bidentate acetate (CH 3 COO) overlayer that lifts the (√2 × √2)R 45° surface reconstruction. TPRS reveals ketene (CH 2 CO) as the dominant product, along with CO, CO 2 , and H 2 O, the latter evolving via a Mars–van Krevelen (MvK) mechanism. Isotopic labeling shows preferential CO 2 formation from the carboxyl carbon and a more balanced CO/CO 2 ratio from the methyl carbon, suggesting distinct oxidation pathways. STM imaging reveals embedded acetate intermediates filling surface oxygen vacancies created in MvK steps. Upon product formation completion (~700 K), extensive surface etching is observed, with pits elongated along the octahedral Fe rows. Approximately 20% of the surface oxygen is removed, consistent with vacancy formation stoichiometry inferred from product distributions. These findings demonstrate that carboxylate-induced restructuring of Fe 3 O 4 (001) involves both surface healing and reduction processes, offering mechanistic insights relevant to ketonization and broader carboxylic acid chemistry on metal oxides.

acetic acid↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intense alteration on early Mars revealed by high-aluminum rocks at Jezero crater

The NASA Perseverance rover discovered light-toned float rocks scattered across the surface of Jezero crater that are particularly rich in alumina ( ~ 35 wt% Al 2 O 3 ) and depleted in other major elements (except silica). These unique float rocks have heterogeneous mineralogy ranging from kaolinite/halloysite-bearing in hydrated samples, to spinel-bearing in dehydrated samples also containing a dehydrated Al-rich phase. Here we describe SuperCam and Mastcam-Z observations of the float rocks, including the first in situ identification of kaolinite or halloysite on another planet, and dehydrated phases including spinel and apparent partially dehydroxylated kaolinite. The presence of spinel in these samples is likely detrital in origin, surviving kaolinitization, pointing to an ultramafic origin. However, the association of low hydration with increased Al 2 O 3 abundances suggests heating-induced dehydration which could have occurred during the lithification or impact excavation of these rocks. Given the orbital context of kaolinite-bearing megabreccia in the Jezero crater rim, we propose an origin for these rocks involving intense aqueous alteration of the parent material, followed by dehydration/lithification potentially through impact processes, and dispersion into Jezero crater through flood or impact-related processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Propagation and Periodicity of Mars's Northern Annular Mode Modulates the Dust Cycle

Abstract We document the propagation of annular modes—zonally symmetric patterns of variability—in Mars's atmosphere using a reanalysis dataset. Mars's Northern Annular Mode (MNAM) sees anomalies of zonal‐mean zonal wind emerge near the subtropics and migrate poleward with a period of 150 days, similarly to Earth's Southern Annular Mode. The mechanism of propagation involves the interaction of the two leading empirical orthogonal functions that define the MNAM. Moreover, the propagation encourages alternating bands of surface wind stress to migrate polewards with a 150‐day period. In addition, a 150‐day periodicity in anomalous column dust optical depth most likely emerges in response to extrema of the MNAM. The combination of the impact of the MNAM's internally forced periodicity on the surface wind stress and the seasonal cycle may contribute to the inter‐annual variability of global dust events, as suggested by a Monte Carlo estimate that correctly approximates the observed incidence of global dust events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elevated-Mn ChemCam targets illuminating Mn redox cycling and diagenesis in the Bradbury Rise, Gale Crater, Mars

Manganese plays a crucial role as a paleo-environmental and geological indicator due to its sensitivity to redox potential and pH variations in the environment. On Earth, the association between the rise of atmospheric oxygen during the Great Oxidation Event and the presence of Mn in the sedimentary rock record underscores its significance. Here, in this study, we reexamined ChemCam targets from the first 600 sols of the Mars Science Laboratory mission, focusing on identifying instances of above-average Mn within these targets. These elevated-Mn targets were categorized into distinct geologic classes, revealing a pattern linking heightened Mn levels with diagenetically altered materials, such as calcium-sulfate veins and concretions, as well as clay minerals within the same targets, indicating a compelling relationship between Mn enrichment and diagenetic processes. High concentrations of Mn were observed in chemically altered targets, suggesting the occurrence of multiple fluid events: the first to alter the material and the second to deposit Mn. The observed patterns suggest multiple diagenetic events and redox cycling that facilitated the deposition and transport of Mn subsequent to the initial dissolution of basaltic materials. This research sheds light on the complexity of martian diagenetic processes and their implications for the planet’s environmental evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cosmic Pairs: A DESI Census of Dual and Offset AGN as Precursors to Massive Black Hole Binaries

We present a systematic census of dual and offset active galactic nuclei (AGN) using spectroscopic data from the first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). After correcting for observational systematics, our final sample contains $>7,000$ dual AGN and 27,000 galaxy pairs containing one AGN over the redshift range $0 \lesssim z \lesssim 3.6$. This sample expands the known dual AGN sample by $\sim 1-2$ orders of magnitude at $0.2 \lesssim z \lesssim 0.4$, includes $\sim 50$ dwarf dual AGN candidates in a regime where only a handful were previously known, and triples the census at $z>2$. Dual AGN are preferentially found at small separations, consistent with merger-driven triggering of AGN activity. The two members of a pair differ in their star formation response: the more massive (primary) host changes little with separation, while the less massive (secondary) lies $\sim 0.3$ dex above matched inactive and one-AGN companions at the same projected separation in main-sequence offset. Using ASTRID simulations, we predict that the fraction of DESI dual AGN whose central black holes will merge by $z \sim 0$ increases with redshift, reaching $\sim 76\%$ by $z \sim 2$, while the fraction producing LISA-detectable mergers peaks at $\sim 37\%$ near $z \sim 0.9$. These results provide the largest uniformly selected spectroscopic sample of kpc-scale dual and offset AGN candidates from a single survey, connecting their host-galaxy and AGN demographics to the progenitor population of massive black hole mergers detectable by LISA.

Dadiani, Ekaterine [Carnegie Mellon U.] (ORCID:000↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role and Lifetime of Dissociative Heterogeneous Processes in Improving Simulated Ozone on Mars

Abstract Ozone simulated in Mars Global Climate Models (MGCMs) is used to assess the underlying chemistry occurring in the atmosphere. Currently, ozone total column abundance (TCA) is under‐predicted in MGCMs by up to 120%, implying missing or inaccurate chemistry in models. Heterogeneous reactions of hydroxyl radicals (HO X ) have been offered as an explanation for some of this bias, because they cause ozone to increase at locations where it's currently under‐predicted. We use four simulations to compare modeled ozone TCA with observations from the UVIS spectrometer aboard the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter to improve the representation of heterogeneous processes and their impact on ozone. We use a gas‐phase only run, a dissociative scheme, an adsorbed HO X retention scheme, and a hybrid scheme that combines the dissociative mechanism with the retention of HO X on water ice. We find retention of HO X is dependent on water ice sublimation, and ozone abundance increases when water ice persists for longer periods (1–20 sols). Over time, the loss of HO X causes a depletion in H 2 O 2 concentration (HO X reservoir), and thus allows ozone concentration to increase. When adsorbed HO X are desorbed and dissociate into other by‐products, HO X are not immediately available to destroy ozone. This results in larger ozone concentrations than if desorbed HO X are released directly back into their gaseous states. When using the hybrid scheme, ozone TCA is increased up to 50% where the ozone deficit is greatest, demonstrating the best agreement with observations, and implying that HO X radicals are both retained when adsorbed and dissociate.

Brown, M. A. J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A comparative study of multimodal data fusion strategies for planetary spectroscopy

Integrating heterogeneous data sources can improve scientific inference when different modalities capture complementary information, but doing so is challenging in high-dimensional, small-sample settings. In spectroscopy for planetary exploration, Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS), Raman Spectroscopy (Raman), Visible Infrared Spectroscopy (VISIR), and Mid-Infrared Spectroscopy (MIR) each examine different aspects of composition and mineralogy, raising fundamental questions about when and how data fusion improves predictive performance. Using a Mars-relevant set of geologic standards with measurements from all four modalities, we present a rigorous systematic evaluation of four data fusion strategies: low-level (data) fusion, mid-level (feature) fusion, high-level (decision) fusion, and residual-boosting (sequential) fusion. We assess performance in predicting oxide composition via nested cross-validation and corrected significance testing to evaluate whether data fusion improves upon single-modality baselines. We show that data fusion does not uniformly improve accuracy, and that observed gains are modest, oxide-dependent, and sensitive to modality and model structure. To move beyond aggregate accuracy metrics, we use model coefficients, permutation importance, and residual gain analysis to examine how the fusion models weight individual modalities and to identify patterns of apparent complementarity or redundancy. Though focused on spectroscopy for planetary exploration, our framework for data fusion evaluation and interpretation extends to other scientific domains with heterogeneous and scarce data and provides a principled approach evaluating data fusion strategies, interpreting modality contributions, and understanding tradeoffs among data fusion strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of post-disruption runaway electron kinetic energy and pitch angle during final loss instability in DIII-D

Post-disruption runaway electron (RE) kinetic energy K and pitch angle sin$\vartheta$ are critical parameters for determining resulting first wall material damage during wall strikes, but are very challenging to measure experimentally. During the final loss instability, confined RE K and sin$\vartheta$ are reconstructed during center-post wall strikes for both high impurity (high-Z) and low impurity (low-Z) plasmas by combining soft x-ray, hard x-ray, synchrotron emission, and total radiated power measurements. Deconfined (wall impacting) RE sin$\vartheta$ is then reconstructed for these shots by using time-decay analysis of infra-red imaging. Additionally, deconfined RE K and sin$\vartheta$ are reconstructed for a low-Z downward loss shot by analyzing resulting damage to a sacrificial graphite dome limiter. The damage analysis uses multi-step modeling simulating plasma instability, RE loss orbits, energy deposition, and finally material expansion (MARS-F, KORC, GEANT-4, and finally COMSOL). Overall, mean kinetic energies are found to be in the range $\langle$$K$$\rangle$ $≈ 3-4$ MeV for confined REs. KORC simulations indicate that the final loss instability process does not change individual RE kinetic energy K. In conclusion, confined RE pitch angles are found to be fairly low initially pre-instability, $\langle$sin$\vartheta$$\rangle$ $≈ 0.1 – 0.2$, but appear to increase roughly 2x, to $\langle$sin$\vartheta$$\rangle$ $≈ 0.3 – 0.4$ for both confined and deconfined REs during instability onset in the low-Z case; this increase is not observed in the high-Z case.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating evaporative wet and dry cycles in Gale crater, Mars using thermochemical modeling techniques

The aim of this work is to provide a model‐backed hypothesis for the formation of evaporites—sulfates, borates—in Gale crater using thermochemical modeling to determine constraints on their formation. We test the hypothesis that primary evaporites required multiple wet–dry cycles to form, akin to how evaporite assemblages form on Earth. Starting with a basalt‐equilibrated Mars fluid, Mars‐relevant concentrations of B and Li were added, and then equilibrated with Gale lacustrine bedrock. We simulated the cycles of evaporation followed by groundwater recharge/dilution to establish an approximate minimum number of wet–dry cycles required to form primary evaporites. We determine that a minimum of 250 wet–dry cycles may be required to start forming primary evaporites that consist of borates and Ca‐sulfates. We estimate that ~14,250 annual cycles (~25.6 k Earth years) of wet and dry periods may form primary borates and Ca‐sulfates in Gale crater. These primary evaporites could have been remobilized during secondary diagenesis to form the veins that the Curiosity rover observes in Gale crater. No Li salts form after 14,250 cycles modeled for the Gale‐relevant scenario (approximately 10 6 cycles would be needed) which implies Li may be leftover in a groundwater brine after the time of the lake. No major deposits of borates are observed to date in Gale crater which also implies that B may be leftover in the subsequent groundwater brine that formed after evaporites were remobilized into Ca‐sulfate veins.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond-classical computation in quantum simulation

Quantum computers hold the promise of solving certain problems that lie beyond the reach of conventional computers. However, establishing this capability, especially for impactful and meaningful problems, remains a central challenge. Here, we show that superconducting quantum annealing processors can rapidly generate samples in close agreement with solutions of the Schrödinger equation. We demonstrate area-law scaling of entanglement in the model quench dynamics of two-, three-, and infinite-dimensional spin glasses, supporting the observed stretched-exponential scaling of effort for matrix-product-state approaches. We show that several leading approximate methods based on tensor networks and neural networks cannot achieve the same accuracy as the quantum annealer within a reasonable time frame. Thus, quantum annealers can answer questions of practical importance that may remain out of reach for classical computation.

King, Andrew D. [D-Wave Quantum Inc., Burnaby, BC ↗