Solar Flare Intensity Prediction With Machine Learning Models
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Zhenbang Jiao↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Machine learning prediction”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation
This research uses machine-learned computational analyses to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is from a rodent model exposed to ≤ 15 cGy of individual Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 16O, 28Si, 48Ti, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses performance scores taken before irradiation to predict impairment in Attentional Set-shifting (ATSET) data post-irradiation. Here, the worst performing rats of the control group define the impairment thresholds based on population analyses via cumulative distribution functions, leading to the labeling of impairment for each subject. A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the Simple Discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the Compound Discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing Machine Learning (ML) classifiers such as the Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Networks identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure. The algorithms employ the experimental prescreenperformance scores as multidimensional input features to predict each rodent’s susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. The receiver operating characteristic and the precision-recall curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Feis the ion in question in both SD and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4Hein SD and 28Siin CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. One key finding of our study is that prescreen performance scores can be used to predict the ATSET performance impairments. This result is significant to crewed space missions as it supports the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. Future research can focus on constructing ML ensemble methods to integrate the findings from the methodologies implemented in this study for morerobust predictionsof cognitive decrements due to space radiation exposure.
space radiation↗
Machine Learning-Based Predictive Analytics for Aircraft Engine Conceptual Design
Big data and artificial intelligence/machine learning are transforming the global business environment. Data is now the most valuable asset for enterprises in every industry. Companies are using data-driven insights for competitive advantage. With that, the adoption of machine learning-based data analytics is rapidly taking hold across various industries, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. This work explored the application of machine learning to aircraft engine conceptual design. Supervised machine-learning algorithms for regression and classification were employed to study patterns in an existing, open-source database of production and research turbofan engines, and resulting in predictive analytics for use in predicting performance of new turbofan designs. Specifically, the author developed machine learning-based analytics to predict cruise thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC) and core sizes of high-efficiency turbofan engines, using engine design parameters as the input. The predictive analytics were trained and deployed in Keras, an open-source neural networks application program interface (API) written in Python, with Google’s TensorFlow (an open source library for numerical computation) serving as the backend engine. The promising results of the predictive analytics show that machine-learning techniques merit further exploration for application in aircraft engine conceptual design.
deep-learning↗
ATD-2 Integrated Arrival/ Departure/Surface (IADS) System Machine Learning Services - Airport Configuration Prediction Model (ACPM)
This document describes the Airport Configuration Prediction Model (ACPM) Machine Learning (ML) service developed under the ATD-2 subproject as a reference implementation and released by NASA as Open Source software on github.
ATD-2↗
Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation
INTRODUCTION We use artificial neural networks (ANNs) as an example machine learning (ML) tool to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is attentional set-shifting (ATSET) test scores from a rodent model exposed to ≤15 cGy of individual galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 28Si, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission [1]. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses applied dose and performance scores taken before irradiation to predict whether a rat will be impaired when irradiated. The results of this study are significant to crewed space missions as they support the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. METHODS Data used in this work are scores from the ATSET, a multi-stage constrained cognitive flexibility test [2]. Our computational model utilizes the number of attempts to reach the criterion to pass a stage as a behavioral performance measure for rats. We use the post-irradiation scores, generate thresholds from cumulative distribution plots of non-irradiated rats, and calculate the percent of irradiated rats whose scores fall below the threshold to infer how each radiation type/dose affects a population. Rats scoring above the threshold are labeled impaired while the others are non-impaired. We then employ ANNs as a typical ML technique, and use each subject’s individual scores taken before radiation along with the applied dose, to predict their personal susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the simple discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the compound discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing ML classifiers such as ANNs identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure [1]. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the precision-recall (PR) curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Fe is the ion in question in both SD (Figure 1) and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4He in SD (Figure 1) and 28Si in CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. In this work, “good” prediction pertains to “better-than-random-chance”, due to the limited sample size and the high inter- and intra-individual variabilities in response to brain stimulation paradigms, as applicable to both animals and humans. More behavioral tests and biomarkers should be investigated on the same subjects, to be fed to the ML models to capture the agents responsible for performance alterations of some individuals versus others.
machine learning↗
Comparison Study of Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Flight Energy Consumption for Advanced Air Mobility
This paper addresses the need to predict the flight energy consumption of aerial vehicles in the presence of wind using machine learning techniques. The presented work is critical to achieving sustainable and efficient operations for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and to evaluating the readiness of the ground-supporting energy infrastructure, e.g., electric grid and AAM portals. The flight energy consumption is described using the "energy per meter" (EPM) metric. We present a comparison study of influential machine learning techniques in predicting EPM using real-world flight test data. We presented new results of using the Decision Tree, Random Forest, and linear regression techniques, along with our previous results using the Recurrent Neural Network and Feed Forward Neural Network techniques. The comparison results show that the Linear Regression method outperforms other methods on the basis of the Mean Squared Error and error variance.
Machine Learning↗
Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages
Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However, these simplified approaches still need to solve time-dependent ODEs to model the entry process and the resulting ground damage. With a computational cost of O(0.01 CPU.s) per scenario, simulating these large numbers of potential entry conditions in risk assessment studies can take several days on local computers. To improve computational efficiency, we propose in this paper an orthogonal approach based on machine learning models to predict the size of damaged areas given a list of entry parameters. We train 5 machine learning methods and compare the predictions to the outputs of the PAIR model, first only with primitive entry condition variables, and then with more advanced features. We find that complex models like neural networks are well-suited to estimate blast hazards, while simpler linear models can accurately assess thermal damage. For both types of hazards, the radii of damaged areas can be predicted with around 10% average errors and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. The CPU time is decreased by a factor O(10 3 ) compared to the PAIR model, which enables the simulation of millions of scenarios in minutes, on a local computer. We then use the same machine learning approaches for a classification task where the models are trained to predict if an asteroid will produce a given level of damage. Results show that complex models like the gradient boosting classifier and the neural network can perform this task with 98% accuracy. Beyond surrogate models, we finally incorporate the machine learning algorithms to the state-of-the-art Shapley sensitivity analysis and present a ranking of the entry parameters based on their contributions to ground damages.
SMD↗
Applying Machine Learning to Jet Noise Prediction
This presentation summarizes the application of machine learning to jet noise data in an effort to predict the resulting noise from the interaction between a jet and a hard surface. The Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory at the NASA Glenn Research Center has acquired the noise resulting from the interaction between a jet and metal plate over a range of surface placements (e.g. plate lengths and positions) and a range of jet flow configurations. For each configuration, the noise was measured at 24 observer locations via a microphone array centered around the jet nozzle. An artificial neural network developed with Keras and TensorFlow was trained on the data to predict an 88-band spectrum as a function of surface placement, jet conditions, and observer location. Analysis of the machine learning models provide insight into which experimental parameters contribute more to the noise and which parameters could potentially be removed entirely to simplify future experiments. Preliminary results will be discussed and presented via a live demonstration of the software, which outputs a sound spectrum in real-time with user-inputted jet-surface configurations.
Dowdall, Jonny↗
A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Martensitic Transition Temperatures for Shape Memory Alloys
Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are a unique class of materials with several remarkable properties including shape recovery, superelasticity, etc. Especially important for many NASA applications is the ability to tune the martensitic phase transition temperature by varying the alloy composition. Nickel-titanium (NiTi) based alloys are the most widely studied of this class, with compositions involving ternary, quaternary, or higher additions being considered. Over the past several years, a significant database of SMA properties has been assembled by NASA researchers. Such a database is ideal for data science-based approaches including machine learning. We present results from a developed machine learning model capable of accurately predicting the transition temperature of SMAs across a wide range of compositions. Our model has the added benefit of interpretability and even provides confidence intervals for our predictions. This model will make rapid screening and design of new SMA materials possible. Predictions from the machine learning model can be validated by empirical and/or atomistic scale modeling.
Shreyas Honrao↗
DIP for Service Providers
The second DIP workshop’s topic is DIP for Service Providers. The workshop presentation covers topics such as DIP onboarding process, service authentication, catalog service capabilities, API requirements, NASA services and their access points, and data requirements for service providers. The Onboarding Process describes the required documentation that enables to collaborate with NASA as well as other industry partners through DIP. Also, step by step approach for the partner to take to register services or consme services through the DIP platform. The Catalog Service describes the different ways for the users to search for services that are of interest as well as registering services to the platform, so other users can search and discover. The API Requirements and Service Specifications describes the benefits of DIP's API management approach via API Gateway where services are managed centrally but ownership is decentralized and partners completely own the administration of their own services. NASA Services and Data Access Points topic describes the services, both data access service and machine learning prediction service, that NASA provides via the DIP platform in near time and post operations via REST API endpoints defined on the API Gateway. Also, NASA's approach for data storage process is explained. The Data Requirements for service providers describes the requirements for storing and exposing to support the performance of services that are provided by the service providers. Lastly, NASA's technology development plan with preliminary scheduler will be presented. There will be a Q&A session at the end of each segment of the presentation to solicit feedback from the participants.
ATM-X↗
A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Aircraft Landing Times using Mediated Predictions from Existing Systems
We developed a novel approach for predicting the landing time of airborne flights in real-time operations. The first step predicts a landing time by using mediation rules to select from among physics-based predictions (relying on the expected flight trajectory) already available in real time in the Federal Aviation Administration System Wide Information Management system data feeds. The second step uses a machine learning model built upon the mediated predictions. The model is trained to predict the error in the mediated prediction, using features describing the current state of an airborne flight. These features are calculated in real time from a relatively small number of data elements that are readily available for airborne flights. Initial results based on five months of data at six large airports demonstrate that incorporating a machine learning model on top of the mediated physics-based prediction can lead to substantial additional improvements in prediction quality.
Machine learning↗
A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Aircraft Landing Times using Mediated Predictions from Existing Systems
We developed a novel approach for predicting the landing time of airborne flights in real-time operations. The first step predicts a landing time by using mediation rules to select from among physics-based predictions (relying on the expected flight trajectory) already available in real time in the Federal Aviation Administration System Wide Information Management system data feeds. The second step uses a machine learning model built upon the mediated predictions. The model is trained to predict the error in the mediated prediction, using features describing the current state of an airborne flight. These features are calculated in real time from a relatively small number of data elements that are readily available for airborne flights. Initial results based on five months of data at six large airports demonstrate that incorporating a machine learning model on top of the mediated physics-based prediction can lead to substantial additional improvements in prediction quality.
Machine learning↗
Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning (ML) Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers
Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.
Machine Learning↗
Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning (ML) Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers
NASA has employed high-throughput molecular assays to identify sub-cellular changes impacting human physiology during spaceflight. Machine learning (ML) methods hold the promise to improve our ability to identify important signals within highly dimensional molecular data. However, the inherent limitation of study subject numbers within a spaceflight mission minimizes the utility of ML approaches. To overcome the sample power limitations, data from multiple spaceflight missions must be aggregated while appropriately addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities. Here we describe an approach to log transform, scale and normalize data from six heterogeneous, mouse liver derived transcriptomics datasets (ntotal=137) which enabled ML-methods to perform well (AUC ≥ 0.87) in classifying spaceflown vs ground control animals rather than mission-of-origin. Concordance was found between liver-specific biological processes identified from harmonized ML-based analysis and study-by-study classical omics analysis. This work demonstrates the feasibility of applying ML methods on integrated, heterogeneous datasets of small sample size.
Machine Learning↗
Developing and Testing a Physics Guided Machine Learning NeuralNetwork to Predict Tonal Noise Emitted by a Propeller
Artificial neural networks offer a highly nonlinear and adaptive model for predicting complex interactions between input-output parameters. However, these networks require large datasets which often exceed practical considerations in modeling experimental results. To alleviate the dataset size requirement, a method known as physics guided machine learning has been applied to construct several neural networks for predicting propeller tonal noise in the time domain over a broad range of flight conditions. Three space-filling designs, namely, Latin-Hypercube, Sphere-Packing, and Grid-Space, were used to distribute points throughout the input parameter space encompassing nondimensional flight conditions and observer geometry. Each neural network’s performance was validated by conditions outside of the training set and compared to the Propeller Analysis System tool from the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program. Compared to the Grid-Space input design, the Latin-Hypercube and the Sphere-Packing designs provided a better representation of the domain for training. Regarding the network archetype, a fully connected perceptron was found to outperform the partially connected perceptron in their ability to predict tonal noise for small datasets. The black-box nature of these neural networks was also explored to understand how the networks constructed the waveform and understand why some network designs produce better models.
Propeller noise↗
Machine Learning Tools for Predicting Solar Energetic Particle Hazards: Progress and Plans
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
STMD↗
A generalizable machine learning approach to predict land surface temperature
Monitoring of land surface and atmospheric states is highly reliant on satellite data. Traditionally, data products are generated using carefully tuned and validated algorithms for low-earth orbit (LEO) sensors. However, the emerging constellation of geostationary (GEO) sensors contributes global, high temporal resolution observations which can better capture the diurnal variability of key observables like land surface temperature (LST). Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from LEO and GEO satellites to develop a deep learning-based method for sensor-to-sensor algorithm emulation. Our model is trained on GOES-16 thermal bands to predict MODIS Terra LST and achieves a validation error <2K. Further, application of the model to unseen times of day and a second GEO sensor observing an unseen spatial domain demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. We anticipate that the synergies between a variety of active orbit configurations can be used to accelerate application of existing algorithms to new datasets.
Kate Marie Duffy↗
Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
SMD↗