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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing post-fire delayed tree mortality with remote sensing: sizing up the elephant in the room

Abstract Background Despite recent advances in understanding the drivers of tree-level delayed mortality, we lack a method for mapping delayed mortality at landscape and regional scales. Consequently, the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on post-fire landscape patterns of burn severity are unknown. We introduce a remote sensing approach for mapping delayed mortality based on post-fire decline in the normalized burn ratio (NBR). NBR decline is defined as the change in NBR between the first post-fire measurement and the minimum NBR value up to 5 years post-fire for each pixel. We validate the method with high-resolution aerial photography from six wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, and then compare the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on landscape patterns of burn severity among fires and forest types. Results NBR decline was significantly correlated with post-fire canopy mortality (r 2 = 0.50) and predicted the presence of delayed mortality with 83% accuracy based on a threshold of 105 NBR decline. Plots with NBR decline greater than 105 were 23 times more likely to experience delayed mortality than those below the threshold (p < 0.001). Delayed mortality occurred across 6–38% of fire perimeters not affected by stand-replacing fire, generally affecting more areas in cold (22–41%) and wet (30%) forest types than in dry (1.7–19%) types. The total area initially mapped as unburned/very low-severity declined an average of 38.1% and generally persisted in smaller, more fragmented patches when considering delayed mortality. The total area initially mapped as high-severity increased an average of 16.2% and shifted towards larger, more contiguous patches. Conclusions Differences between 1- and 5-year post-fire burn severity maps depict dynamic post-fire mosaics resulting from delayed mortality, with variability among fires reflecting a range of potential drivers. We demonstrate that tree-level delayed mortality scales up to alter higher-level landscape patterns of burn severity with important implications for forest resilience and a range of fire-driven ecological outcomes. Our method can complement existing tree-level studies on drivers of delayed mortality, refine mapping of fire refugia, inform estimates of habitat and carbon losses, and provide a more comprehensive assessment of landscape and regional scale fire effects and trends.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2016

Landscape-scale consequences of differential tree mortality from catastrophic wind disturbance in the Amazon

Wind disturbance can create large forest blowdowns, which greatly reduces live biomass and adds uncertainty to the strength of the Amazon carbon sink. Observational studies from within the central Amazon have quantified blowdown size and estimated total mortality but have not determined which trees are most likely to die from a catastrophic wind disturbance. Also, the impact of spatial dependence upon tree mortality from wind disturbance has seldom been quantified, which is important because wind disturbance often kills clusters of trees due to large treefalls killing surrounding neighbors. We examine (1) the causes of differential mortality between adult trees from a 300-ha blowdown event in the Peruvian region of the northwestern Amazon, (2) how accounting for spatial dependence affects mortality predictions, and (3) how incorporating both differential mortality and spatial dependence affect the landscape level estimation of necromass produced from the blowdown. Standard regression and spatial regression models were used to estimate how stem diameter, wood density, elevation, and a satellite-derived disturbance metric influenced the probability of tree death from the blowdown event. The model parameters regarding tree characteristics, topography, and spatial autocorrelation of the field data were then used to determine the consequences of non-random mortality for landscape production of necromass through a simulation model. Tree mortality was highly non-random within the blowdown, where tree mortality rates were highest for trees that were large, had low wood density, and were located at high elevation. Of the differential mortality models, the non-spatial models overpredicted necromass, whereas the spatial model slightly underpredicted necromass. When parameterized from the same field data, the spatial regression model with differential mortality estimated only 7.5% more dead trees across the entire blowdown than the random mortality model, yet it estimated 51% greater necromass. As a result, we suggest that predictions of forest carbon loss from wind disturbance are sensitive to not only the underlying spatial dependence of observations, but also the biological differences between individuals that promote differential levels of mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geographic disparities of cardiovascular and cancer mortality in the USA: 1981–2019

Background: Cardiovascular and cancer mortality are the two leading causes of death in the developed world including the USA. However, mortality trends for these diseases are highly dynamic, and the geographic landscape is in transition. We analyze patterns of mortality improvement at county level during recent decades focusing on mortality decline and geographic diversity. Methods: We grouped age-adjusted mortality rates of cardiovascular and cancer diseases from CDC WONDER for 2959 US counties into 3-year time periods to improve reliability. We calculated percent mortality decrease between 1981–83 and 2016–19 for both causes to quantify mortality improvements for counties. Results: Using standard deviation as an index of disparities, place-based cancer mortalities were 68% larger than cardiovascular disparities. Significantly, 566 US counties had same or higher rates of cancer mortality in 2019 as in 1981. The geographic distribution of mortality improvement in either cause tends to favor largely populated areas along coasts. Less-populated, rural places in the interior and southeastern regions were experiencing less improvement. Conclusions: At the county level, large place-based disparities exist for both causes of death with the magnitude of disparities being substantially larger for the reduction in cancer deaths. Put differently, place matters, more for cancer than cardiovascular mortality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

High-throughput serum proteomics for the identification of protein biomarkers of mortality in older men

The biological perturbations associated with incident mortality are not well elucidated, and there are limited biomarkers for the prediction of mortality. In this work we used a novel high throughput proteomics approach to identify serum peptides and proteins associated with 5 year mortality in community dwelling men age >65 years who participated in a longitudinal observational study of musculoskeletal aging (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men: MrOS). In a discovery phase, serum specimens collected at baseline in 2473 men were analyzed using liquid chromatography-ion mobility-mass spectrometry, and incident mortality in the subsequent 5 years was ascertained by tri-annual questionnaire. Rigorous statistical methods were utilized to identify 56 peptides (31 proteins) that were associated with 5-year mortality. In an independent replication phase, selected reaction monitoring was used to examine 21 of those peptides in baseline serum from 750 additional men; 81% of those peptides remained significantly associated with mortality. Mortality-associated proteins included a variety involved in inflammation or complement activation; several have been previously linked to mortality (e.g. C reactive protein, alpha 1-antichymotrypsin) and others are not previously known to be associated with mortality. Other novel proteins of interest included pregnancy-associated plasma protein, VE cadherin, leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1, vinculin, vitronectin, mast/stem cell growth factor receptor and Saa4. A panel of peptides improved the predictive value of a commonly used clinical predictor of mortality. Overall, these results suggest that complex inflammatory pathways, and proteins in other pathways, are linked to 5-year mortality risk. This work may serve to identify novel biomarkers for near term mortality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.

tree die-off↗
DOE OSTI2019

The importance and challenges of detecting changes in forest mortality rates

Abstract Tree mortality rates determine forest health, community dynamics, and terrestrial carbon stocks. Climate change is predicted to increase global forest mortality, and some studies have observed recent changes in mortality rates. Assessing shifts in mortality and identifying their causes is challenged by the low mortality rates of trees and the limited scale at which tree mortality is typically assessed. Detecting changes in mortality and assigning mechanisms to those changes may not be feasible unless there are exceptionally large and persistent shifts in forest mortality rates. Here, we combine simulations and life‐history theory to explore how a doubling in mortality might result in population decline, mean life expectancy, and carbon carrying capacity of forests. Using a simulated forest, we also identify that the sampling strategy and effort required to detect a doubling in stem mortality is extensive. We recommend increased efforts at monitoring mortality and a better incorporation of life‐history theory, community composition, and application of changepoint detection statistics in mortality analyses.

McMahon, Sean M.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

Highlights: • The study projects future heat-related mortality risk in 51 major cities in China. • The projections are based on high resolution climate and population projections. • Future heat mortality risk is likely to be considerable under all emission scenarios. • Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk. Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041–2060) relative to 1970–2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300–43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200–36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300–29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800–14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200–40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization–induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large–scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. As a result, we outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale

Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10–40% per century under current climate and 20–170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cadmium and Alzheimer’s disease mortality in U.S. adults: Updated evidence with a urinary biomarker and extended follow-up time

Cadmium has been linked to impaired cognitive function in adults and may cause behavioral, physiological and molecular abnormalities characteristic of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in animals. Evidence linking cadmium and AD in humans is limited, but supportive. In the most recent epidemiologic study, blood cadmium in U.S. adults was positively associated with elevated AD mortality 7–13 years later. The association between urinary cadmium – an arguably more appropriate biomarker for studying chronic diseases – and AD mortality has not yet been explored. Further study of cadmium and AD mortality in an independent population, with longer follow-up, and stratified by sex is also needed. We sought to answer these questions using the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (1999–2006 cycles) and NHANES III (interviews in 1988–1994) datasets, separately linked to AD mortality as of 2011. We used survey-weighted Cox regression models predicting age at AD death and adjusted for race/ethnicity, sex, smoking status, education and urinary creatinine. An interquartile range (IQR; IQR=0.51 ng/mL) increase in urinary cadmium was associated with 58% higher rate of AD mortality (hazard ratio (HR)=1.58, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.09. p-value=0.0009, mean follow-up: 7.5 years) in NHANES 1999–2006 participants. In contrast, in NHANES III participants, an IQR (IQR=0.78 ng/mL) increase in urinary cadmium was not associated with AD mortality (HR=0.85, 95% CI: 0.63, 1.17, p-value=0.31, mean follow-up: 13 years). Also in the NHANES III sample however, when the maximum follow-up time was restricted to 12.7 years (i.e. the same as NHANES 1999–2006 participants) and urinary creatinine adjustments were not made, urinary cadmium was associated with elevated AD mortality (HR=1.11, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20, p-value=0.0086). Our study partially supported an association between cadmium and AD mortality, but the sensitivity of results to follow-up time and creatinine adjustments necessitate cautious interpretation of the association. Further studies, particularly those on toxicological mechanisms, are required to fully understand the nature of the “cadmium-AD mortality” association. - Highlights: • Urine Cd positively associated with Alzheimer’s disease mortality in NHANES 99-06. • Urine Cd NOT associated with AD in NHANES III, except under some conditions. • Results partly supportive of “Cd-AD mortality” link. • Inconsistency and insufficient toxicological data suggest cautious interpretation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Revealing the causes and temporal distribution of tree mortality in Central Amazonia

Tree mortality is a critical process in forest ecosystems, as it influences floristic composition, structure, dynamics, carbon storage, and forest nutrient cycling. However, the mechanisms behind tree death in tropical regions are still poorly characterized. This lack of information is mainly because tree mortality data come from long-interval inventories and studies that measured tree death seasonally are scarce. Here in this study, we offer novel insights into the power of fine temporal scale observations and we use a natural history approach to understand the processes and mechanism of tree mortality. We monitored tree mortality every month during one year, in 10 ha of terra-firme forest. To determine the pathways of mortality, we considered the state of the tree at the start of the investigation and the pre and post-mortem characteristics. From November 2010 to October 2011, 67 out of 5808 trees died. Despite the 2010 drought, mortality was highly correlated with monthly rainfall (r = 0.85). In total, six pathways of mortality were assessed. Storms were the main cause of mortality, killing 45% of all dead trees, followed by Biotic/abiotic factors accounting for 30% of tree mortality. The high mortality registered in the rainy season was mostly (78%) due to healthy trees dying uprooted or snapped. Lastly, we would benefit from studies that assess mortality on a monthly basis and in combination with quantitative long-term data, we can substantially improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind tree death in the tropics.

2010 drought↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO 2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO 2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO 2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mortality among individuals exposed to atomic bomb radiation in utero: 1950–2012

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother’s weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents’ survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10–3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (-0.18,< -0.77–0.95); the unadjusted ERR/Gy for external cause mortality was not statistically significant (0.28, < -0.60–2.36). Among females, the unadjusted ERRs/Gy were increased for solid cancer (2.24, 0.44–5.58), noncancer (2.86, 0.56–7.64), and external cause mortality (2.57, 0.20–9.19). The ERRs/Gy adjusted for potential mediators did not change appreciably for solid cancer mortality, but decreased notably for noncancer mortality (0.39, < -0.43–1.91 for males; 1.48, - 0.046–4.55 for females) and external cause mortality (0.10, < -0.57–1.96 for males; 1.38, < -0.46–5.95 for females). In conclusion, antenatal radiation exposure is a consistent risk factor for increased solid cancer mortality among females, but not among males. The effect of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on noncancer disease and external cause mortality among individuals exposed in utero was mediated through small head size, low birth weight, and parental loss.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gut microbiome dynamics and associations with mortality in critically ill patients

Abstract Background Critical illness and care within the intensive care unit (ICU) leads to profound changes in the composition of the gut microbiome. The impact of such changes on the patients and their subsequent disease course remains uncertain. We hypothesized that specific changes in the gut microbiome would be more harmful than others, leading to increased mortality in critically ill patients. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of critically ill adults in the ICU. We obtained rectal swabs from 52 patients and assessed the composition the gut microbiome using 16 S rRNA gene sequencing. We followed patients throughout their ICU course and evaluated their mortality rate at 28 days following admission to the ICU. We used selbal, a machine learning method, to identify the balance of microbial taxa most closely associated with 28-day mortality. Results We found that a proportional ratio of four taxa could be used to distinguish patients with a higher risk of mortality from patients with a lower risk of mortality (p = .02). We named this binarized ratio our microbiome mortality index (MMI). Patients with a high MMI had a higher 28-day mortality compared to those with a low MMI (hazard ratio, 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–4.3), and remained significant after adjustment for other ICU mortality predictors, including the presence of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score (hazard ratio, 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.4–4.7). High mortality was driven by taxa from theAnaerococcus(genus) andEnterobacteriaceae(family), while lower mortality was driven byParasutterellaandCampylobacter(genera). Conclusions Dysbiosis in the gut of critically ill patients is an independent risk factor for increased mortality at 28 days after adjustment for clinically significant confounders. Gut dysbiosis may represent a potential therapeutic target for future ICU interventions.

Gastroenterology & Hepatology↗
DOE OSTI2016

Delayed tree mortality and Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) population explosion in a Louisiana bottomland hardwood forest following Hurricane Katrina

Assessing long-term effects of hurricane damage in bottomland hardwood forests is important to detect any permanent, long lasting changes to the forest. Two 75 × 75 m plots were established in a Louisiana bottomland hardwood forest in 2004 and all adult trees were measured. The plots were resurveyed in 2006 after Hurricane Katrina passed over the plots in 2005, and in 2011, to gain an understanding of mortality over time. Species composition, mortality and biomass change were assessed over the study period from 2004 to 2011. Sweetgum, water oak, and laurel oak were the most important overstory species in 2004, and American holly and American hornbeam were the most important understory species. In the more damaged plot, there was a shift in dominant species as 63 new Chinese tallow individuals recruited into the adult class (>10 cm) between 2004 and 2011. Chinese tallow is an invasive tree species that often out-competes native species in bottomland hardwood forests. Annual mortality in the bottomland hardwood forest plots between 2004 and 2011 was 6% per year, 11% per year from 2004 to 2006 (representing direct hurricane mortality), and 5% between 2006 and 2011 (delayed tree mortality). Approximately 53% of the total biomass (188,000 kg) was lost between 2004 and 2011. A plot in a cypress tupelo forest was added in 2006 and very little damage or mortality was observed. This study revealed that delayed mortality to hurricane-damaged trees is a significant factor in the long-term dynamics of bottomland hardwood forests and represents an amplification of the effects of the hurricane over time. The fact that direct and delayed mortality is different by species indicates that the measurement only of direct mortality can lead to false conclusions about which species are resistant to hurricanes. Hurricane damage opened up new habitat for invasion by Chinese tallow which grew prolifically in highly damaged, low elevation, wet areas, indicating that large disturbances are an important factor in accelerating the population expansion of this invasive species. The high mortality and low recruitment of some species into the sapling and adult layers and the corresponding expansion of Chinese tallow indicates that species composition will differ from pre-hurricane composition for some time in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Individual Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada Using Lidar and Multispectral Reflectance Data

Widespread tree mortality events occur during periods of severe drought in temperate conifer forests and are expected to become more frequent in many areas due to climate change. Improved mapping of individual tree mortality is needed to identify risk factors and design effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) lidar and multispectral reflectance airborne observations to map individual tree mortality over a 160 km 2 area during and after the 2012–2016 drought for two sites in California's Sierra National Forest. We used NEON lidar to derive tree locations and crown perimeters and multispectral data to map tree mortality for more than 1 million trees. We found that 25.4% of the trees in our study area died between 2013 and 2017, with considerably higher mortality at the lower-elevation Soaproot Saddle site. Between 2017 and 2019, an additional 2.0%–2.8% of the trees died each year. Two wildfires in 2020 and 2021 increased tree mortality within burned area perimeters by 49%–89% between 2019 and 2021. Consistent with previous work, we found that tree mortality risk increased as a function of tree height. Tree mortality was positively associated with distance from rivers, trees per hectare, and decreasing slope at the lower elevation site. In contrast, increasing slope was positively associated with tree mortality at the higher elevation site. Our approach and dataset provide a means to study the combined effects of drought and wildfire on tree mortality and may improve projections of forest resilience under a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Endovascular Aneurysm Repair: Is Imaging Surveillance Robust, and Does It Influence Long-term Mortality?

PurposeEndovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is the dominant treatment strategy for abdominal aortic aneurysms. However, as a result of uncertainty regarding long-term durability, an ongoing imaging surveillance program is required. The aim of the study was to assess EVAR surveillance in Scotland and its effect on all-cause and aneurysm-related mortality.MethodsA retrospective analysis of all EVAR procedures carried out in the four main Scottish vascular units. The primary outcome measure was the implementation of post-EVAR imaging surveillance across Scotland. Patients were identified locally and then categorized as having complete, incomplete, or no surveillance. Secondary outcome measures were all-cause mortality and aneurysm-related mortality. Cause of death was obtained from death certificates.ResultsData were available for 569 patients from the years 2001 to 2012. All centers had data for a minimum of 5 contiguous years. Surveillance ranged from 1.66 to 4.55 years (median 3.03 years). Overall, 53 % had complete imaging surveillance, 43 % incomplete, and 4 % none. For the whole cohort, all-cause 5-year mortality was 33.5 % (95 % confidence interval 28.0–38.6) and aneurysm-related mortality was 4.5 % (.8–7.3). All-cause mortality in patients with complete, incomplete, and no imaging was 49.9 % (39.2–58.6), 19.1 % (12.6–25.2), and 47.2 % (17.7–66.2), respectively. Aneurysm-related mortality was 3.7 % (1.8–7.4), 4.4 % (2.2–8.9), and 9.5 % (2.5–33.0), respectively. All-cause mortality was significantly higher in patients with complete compared to incomplete imaging surveillance (p < 0.001). No significant differences were observed in aneurysm-related mortality (p = 0.2).ConclusionOnly half of EVAR patients underwent complete long-term imaging surveillance. However, incomplete imaging could not be linked to any increase in mortality. Further work is required to establish the role and deliverability of EVAR imaging surveillance.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗