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The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): Quantifying Model Sensitivity to Emission Characteristics
Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO 2 injection, seasonality of SO 2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO 2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO 4 ) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO 2 , SO 4 , and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO 2 , which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO 2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of −0.35 W m −2 ), SO 2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO 2 concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO 2 at height consistently increased SO 2 and SO 4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO 4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO 4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.
Multi-Season Evaluation of CO2 Weather in OCO-2 MIP Models
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Sources of Uncertainty in Modeled Land Carbon Storage within and across Three MIPs: Diagnosis with Three New Techniques
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Mars ISPP Precursor (MIP): The First Flight Demonstration of In-Situ Propellant Production
Strategic planning for human missions of exploration to Mars has conclusively identified in-situ propellant production (ISPP) as an enabling technology. The Mars reference mission concept predeploys a robotic propellant production plant to the planet two years before the planned departure of the crew from Earth. The successful operation of this plant is necessary for the human journey to begin.
Mechanical Impulse Pyro Shock (MIPS) Simulation
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FY21 Micro-grid Definition and Interface Converter for Planetary Surfaces (MIPS) Annual Review Presentation
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FY22 Micro-grid Definition and Interface Converter for Planetary Surfaces (MIPS) Annual Review Presentation
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Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization
While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.
Multi‐Season Evaluation of CO 2 Weather in OCO‐2 MIP Models
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Induction of carcinoembryonic antigen expression in a three-dimensional culture system
MIP-101 is a poorly differentiated human colon carcinoma cell line established from ascites that produces minimal amounts of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), a 180 kDa glycoprotein tumor marker, and nonspecific cross-reacting antigen (NCA), a related protein that has 50 and 90 kDa isoforms, in vitro in monolayer culture. MIP-101 produces CEA when implanted into the peritoneum of nude mice but not when implanted into subcutaneous tissue. We tested whether MIP-101 cells may be induced to express CEA when cultured on microcarrier beads in three-dimensional cultures, either in static cultures as non-adherent aggregates or under dynamic conditions in a NASA-designed low shear stress bioreactor. MIP- 101 cells proliferated well under all three conditions and increased CEA and NCA production 3 - 4 fold when grown in three-dimensional cultures compared to MIP-101 cells growing logarithmically in monolayers. These results suggest that three-dimensional growth in vitro simulates tumor function in vivo and that three-dimensional growth by itself may enhance production of molecules that are associated with the metastatic process.
Biomimetic/Optical Sensors for Detecting Bacterial Species
Biomimetic/optical sensors have been proposed as means of real-time detection of bacteria in liquid samples through real-time detection of compounds secreted by the bacteria. Bacterial species of interest would be identified through detection of signaling compounds unique to those species. The best-characterized examples of quorum-signaling compounds are acyl-homoserine lactones and peptides. Each compound, secreted by each bacterium of an affected species, serves as a signal to other bacteria of the same species to engage in a collective behavior when the population density of that species reaches a threshold level analogous to a quorum. A sensor according to the proposal would include a specially formulated biomimetic film, made of a molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP), that would respond optically to the signaling compound of interest. The MIP film would be integrated directly onto an opticalwaveguide- based ring resonator for optical readout. Optically, the sensor would resemble the one described in Chemical Sensors Based on Optical Ring Resonators (NPO-40601), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 29, No. 10 (October 2005), page 32. MIPs have been used before as molecular- recognition compounds, though not in the manner of the present proposal. Molecular imprinting is an approach to making molecularly selective cavities in a polymer matrix. These cavities function much as enzyme receptor sites: the chemical functionality and shape of a cavity in the polymer matrix cause the cavity to bind to specific molecules. An MIP matrix is made by polymerizing monomers in the presence of the compound of interest (template molecule). The polymer forms around the template. After the polymer solidifies, the template molecules are removed from the polymer matrix by decomplexing them from their binding sites and then dissolving them, leaving cavities that are matched to the template molecules in size, shape, and chemical functionality. The cavities thus become molecular-recognition sites that bind only to molecules matched to the sites; other molecules are excluded. In a sensor according to the proposal, the MIP would feature molecular recognition sites that would bind the specific signaling molecules selectively according to their size, shape, and chemical functionality (see figure). As the film took up the signaling molecules in the molecular recognition sites, the index of refraction and thickness of the film would change, causing a wavelength shift of the peak of the resonance spectrum. It has been estimated that by measuring this wavelength shift, it should be possible to detect as little as 10 picomoles of a peptide signaling compound.
A magnetic isolation and pointing system for the astrometric telescope facility
The astrometric telescope facility (ATF), a 20-meter telescope designed for long-term detection and observation of planetary systems outside of the solar system, is scheduled to be a major user of the Space Station's payload pointing system (PPS) capabilities. However, because the ATF has such a stringent pointing stability specification (as low as 0.01 arcsec error over the frequency range from 5 to 200 hertz) and requires +/- 180-degree roll rotation around the telescope's line of sight, the ATF's utilization of the PPS requires the addition of a mechanism or mechanisms to enhance the basic PPS capabilities. The results of a study conducted to investigate the ATF pointing performance achievable by the addition of a magnetic isolation and pointing (MIPS) system between the PPS upper gimbal and the ATF, and separately, by the addition of a passive isolation system between the Space Station and the PPS base are presented. In addition, the study produced requirements on magnetic force and gap motion as a function of the level of Space Station disturbance. These results were used to support the definition of a candidate MIPS. Pointing performance results from the study indicate that a MIPS can meet the ATF pointing requirements in the presence of a PPS base transitional acceleration of up to 0.018g, with reasonable restrictions placed on the isolation and pointing bandwidths. By contrast, the passive base isolator system must have an unrealistically low isolation bandwidth on all axes (less than 0.1 hertz) to meet ATF pointing requirements. The candidate MIPS is based on an assumed base translational disturbance of 0.01g. The system fits within the available annular region between the PPS and ATF while meeting power and weight limitations and providing the required payload roll motion. Payload data and power services are provided by noncontacting transfer devices.
Performance modeling & simulation of complex systems (A systems engineering design & analysis approach)
Modeling of the Multi-mission Image Processing System (MIPS) will be described as an example of the use of a modeling tool to design a distributed system that supports multiple application scenarios. This paper examines: (a) modeling tool selection, capabilities, and operation (namely NETWORK 2.5 by CACl), (b) pointers for building or constructing a model and how the MIPS model was developed, (c) the importance of benchmarking or testing the performance of equipment/subsystems being considered for incorporation the design/architecture, (d) the essential step of model validation and/or calibration using the benchmark results, (e) sample simulation results from the MIPS model, and (f) how modeling and simulation analysis affected the MIPS design process by having a supportive and informative impact.
Oxygen Generator System Mars In-Situ Propellant Production Precursor Flight
The 2001 Lander to Mars will carry the first ever ISRU payload to Mars. This payload, the Mars In-situ Propellant production Precursor (MIP), will demonstrate a variety of technologies that will be required for future ISRU Mars indigenous material processing plant designs. One of those technologies is that of extracting oxygen from the predominantly carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars, a prerequisite for future sample return and human missions to Mars. The Oxygen Generator Subsystem (OGS) portion of the MIP will demonstrate this and is the focus of this paper. The primary objective of the OGS is to demonstrate the production of oxygen from Mars atmospheric gases. Secondary objectives are to measure the performance and reliability of oxygen generation hardware in actual mission environments over an extended time. Major constraints on the OGS design came from several sources. The Lander provides power to the system from solar power that is harnessed by photovoltaic arrays. This limited OGS to daytime only operations (six to eight hours) and a maximum power of 15W. The reliance on solar power necessitated thermal cycling of the OGS between Mars ambient and OGS operating temperatures. The Lander also limited the total mass of the MIP payload to 7.5 kg with a correspondingly small volume, and the OGS was one of six experiments in the MIP. Mass and volume were to be minimized. Another constraint was cost. Mission funding, as always, was tight. Cost was to be minimized. In short the OGS design had to be low power (<15 Watts), low mass (1 kg), low volume, low cost, and be capable of cyclical operations for an extended stay on Mars. After extensive research, a zirconia based solid oxide electrolyzer design was selected.
Oxygen Generator System Mars In-Situ Propellant Production Precursor Flight
The 2001 Lander to Mars will carry the first ever In situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) payload to Mars. This payload, the Mars In-situ Propellant production Precursor (MIP), will demonstrate a variety of technologies that will be required for future ISRU Mars indigenous material processing plant designs. One of those technologies is that of extracting oxygen from the predominantly carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars, a prerequisite for future sample return and human missions to Mars. The Oxygen Generator Subsystem (OGS) portion of the MIP will demonstrate this and is the focus of this paper. The primary objective of the OGS is to demonstrate the production of oxygen from Mars atmospheric gases. Secondary objectives are to measure the performance and reliability of oxygen generation hardware in actual mission environments over an extended time. Major constraints on the OGS design came from several sources. The Lander provides power to the system from solar power that is harnessed by photovoltaic arrays. This limited OGS to daytime only operations (six to eight hours) and a maximum power of 15W. The reliance on solar power necessitated thermal cycling of the OGS between Mars ambient and OGS operating temperatures. The Lander also limited the total mass of the MIP payload to 7.5 kg with a correspondingly small volume, and the OGS was one of six experiments in the MIP Mass and volume were to be minimized. Another constraint was cost. Mission funding, as always, was tight. Cost was to be minimized. In short the OGS design had to be low power (<15 Watts), low mass (1 kg), low volume, low cost, and be capable of cyclical operations for an extended stay on Mars. After extensive research, a zirconia based solid oxide electrolyzer design was selected.