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NASA NTRS2009

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Resonant Transneptunian Binaries: Evidence for Slow Migration of Neptune

As Neptune migrated, its mean-motion resonances preceded it into the planetesimal disk. The efficiency of capture into mean motion resonances depends on the smoothness of Neptune's migration and the local population available to be captured. The two strongest resonances, the 3:2 at 39.4 AU and 2:1 at 47.7 AU, straddle the core repository of the physically distinct and binary-rich Cold Classicals, providing a unique opportunity to test the details of Neptune's migration. Smooth migration should result in a measurable difference between the 3:2 and 2:1 resonant object properties, with low inclination 2:1s having a high fraction of red binaries, mirroring that of the Cold Classicals while the 3:2 will would have fewer binaries. Rapid migration would generate a more homogeneous result. Resonant objects observed with HST show a higher rate of binaries in the 2:1 relative to the 3:2, significant at the 2cr level. This suggests slow Neptune migration over a large enough distance that the 2:1 swept through the Cold Classical region. Colors are available for only a fraction of these targets but a prevalence of red objects in outer Resonances has been reported. We report here on ongoing observations with HST in cycle 19 targeting all unobserved Resonants with observations that will measure color and search for binary companions using the WFC3.

Noll, Keith S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A Kosloff/Basal method, 3D migration program implemented on the CYBER 205 supercomputer

Conventional finite difference migration has relied on approximations to the acoustic wave equation which allow energy to propagate only downwards. Although generally reliable, such approaches usually do not yield an accurate migration for geological structures with strong lateral velocity variations or with steeply dipping reflectors. An earlier study by D. Kosloff and E. Baysal (Migration with the Full Acoustic Wave Equation) examined an alternative approach based on the full acoustic wave equation. The 2D, Fourier type algorithm which was developed was tested by Kosloff and Baysal against synthetic data and against physical model data. The results indicated that such a scheme gives accurate migration for complicated structures. This paper describes the development and testing of a vectorized, 3D migration program for the CYBER 205 using the Kosloff/Baysal method. The program can accept as many as 65,536 zero offset (stacked) traces.

Pyle, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Mantle circulation and the lateral migration of subducted slabs

The geometry of transverse migration of subducted lithospheric slabs is examined, and the way in which this influences the flow in the mantle is studied. The migration of subducted slabs generally appears to be retrograde (at rates of 10-25 mm/yr), so that the descent of material is actually steeper than the slab dip. Retrograde slab migration is probably caused by the tendence of negatively buoyant slabs to sink in the surrounding mantle. The properties of the flow driven by such retrograde slab migration are explored in simple two-dimensional models. The results are used as a guide to infer the contribution of retrograde slab motion to the more complex mantle flow and to examine some consequences of the additional component of mantle flow. It is shown that slab migration is an important factor that causes mantle flow to be geometrically complex and time dependent.

Garfunkel, Z.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Transparent process migration: Design alternatives and the Sprite implementation

The Sprite operating system allows executing processes to be moved between hosts at any time. We use this process migration mechanism to offload work onto idle machines, and also to evict migrated processes when idle workstations are reclaimed by their owners. Sprite's migration mechanism provides a high degree of transparency both for migrated processes and for users. Idle machines are identified, and eviction is invoked, automatically by daemon processes. On Sprite it takes up to a few hundred milliseconds on SPARCstation 1 workstations to perform a remote exec, while evictions typically occur in a few seconds. The pmake program uses remote invocation to invoke tasks concurrently. Compilations commonly obtain speedup factors in the range of three to six; they are limited primarily by contention for centralized resources such as file servers. CPU-bound tasks such as simulations can make more effective use of idle hosts, obtaining as much as eight-fold speedup over a period of hours. Process migration has been in regular service for over two years.

Douglis, Fred↗

NASA NTRS1996

Thread Migration in the Presence of Pointers

Dynamic migration of lightweight threads supports both data locality and load balancing. However, migrating threads that contain pointers referencing data in both the stack and heap remains an open problem. In this paper we describe a technique by which threads with pointers referencing both stack and non-shared heap data can be migrated such that the pointers remain valid after migration. As a result, threads containing pointers can now be migrated between processors in a homogeneous distributed memory environment.

Cronk, David↗

NASA NTRS2006

Space-Based Ornithology: On the Wings of Migration and Biophysics

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties. Public interest is high with concerns about avian flu, Katrina and its impacts, and the recent sightings of the ivory-billed woodpecker. Space based technology gives us new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. Together with the USGS and other agencies, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models of energy and water balance and drive these models with satellite measurements of spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Dynamic state variable modeling provides an additional tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to our mechanistic models describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We also build upon the canopy done by the Environmental Laboratory over the past few years.

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modeling Bird Migration in Changing Habitats: Space-based Ornithology using Satellites and GIS

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties presenting challenges in both geographic space and time. Space based technology, coupled with geographic information systems, yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At NASA, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models and drive these models with satellite observations and numerical weather predictions of the spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Geographic information system technology comprises one component of our overall simulation framework, especially for characterizing the changing habitats and conditions encountered by en-route migratory birds. Simulation provides a tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We present examples of our simulation of shorebirds, principally, pectoral sandpipers, along the central flyways of the United States and Canada from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Low Mass for Mars from Jupiter's Early Gas-Driven Migration

Jupiter and Saturn formed in a few million years from a gas-dominated protoplanetary disk, and were susceptible to gas-driven migration of their orbits on timescales of only approximately 100,000 years. Hydrodynamic simulations show that these giant planets can undergo a two-stage, inward-then-outward, migration. The terrestrial planets finished accreting much later and their characteristics, including Mars' small mass, are best reproduced by starting from a planetesimal disk with an outer edge at about one astronomical unit from the Sun (1 AU is the Earth-Sun distance). Here we report simulations of the early Solar System that show how the inward migration of Jupiter to 1.5 AU, and its subsequent outward migration, lead to a planetesimal disk truncated at 1 AU; the terrestrial planets then form from this disk over the next 30-50 million years, with an Earth/Mars mass ratio consistent with observations. Scattering by Jupiter initially empties but then repopulates the asteroid belt, with inner-belt bodies originating between 1 and 3 AU and outer-belt bodies originating between and beyond the giant planets. This explains the significant compositional differences across the asteroid belt. The key aspect missing from previous models of terrestrial planet formation is the substantial radial migration of the giant planets, which suggests that their behaviour is more similar to that inferred for extrasolar planets than previously thought.

Walsh, Kevin J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Binaries in Transneptunian Resonances: Evidence for Slow Migration of Neptune?

A distinguishing feature of trans neptunian objects (TNO) is the high fraction that arc binary. This is particularly true for the Cold Classicals (CC), objects in lowe and low i orbits concentrated between the 3:2 and 2: 1 mean-motion resonances. CCs have other physical markers: red colors, high albedos, and equal-mass binaries. The CCs appear to be a coherent and physically distinct population of planetesimals that has survived to the present with their physical properties relatively unaltered. Their spatial concentration between 39.4 and 47.7 AU has made identification of the CCs as a physical group possible. However, objects that started out as CCs arc almost certainly 1101 limited to this one dynamical niche. We can, therefore, use the measurable physical properties of CCs as tracers of Neptune-driven dynamical mixing in the Kuiper Belt. As Neptune migrated, its mean-motion resonances preceded it into the planetesimal disk. The efficiency of capture into mean motion resonances depends on the smoothness of Neptune's migration and the local population available to be captured. The two strongest resonances, the 3:2 at 39.4 AU and 2: 1 at 47.7 AU, straddle the core repository of the physically distinct CCs, providing a unique opportunity to test the details of Neptune's migration. Smooth migration should result in a measurable difference between the 3:2 and 2:1 with low inclination 2:1s having a red, binary population mirroring that of the CC itself while the 3:2 will be less contaminated. Alternative models with rapid migration would generate a more homogeneous result.

Noll, Keith↗

NASA NTRS1972

Methods of quantitative and qualitative analysis of bird migration with a tracking radar

Methods of analyzing bird migration by using tracking radar are discussed. The procedure for assessing the rate of bird passage is described. Three topics are presented concerning the grouping of nocturnal migrants, the velocity of migratory flight, and identification of species by radar echoes. The height and volume of migration under different weather conditions are examined. The methods for studying the directions of migration and the correlation between winds and the height and direction of migrating birds are presented.

Bruderer, B.↗

NASA NTRS1979

The migration of fluid droplets and their interactions in a thermal gradient

When materials are processed in free fall, buoyant forces will be substantially reduced. Thus, the buoyant migration of droplets and bubbles which normally occurs on earth is expected to be overshadowed by migration due to other mechanisms in space processing. In particular, capillary forces on droplets due to the variation of interfacial tension around their periphery will play a significant role in governing their motion in space. While such interfacial tension gradients can be caused by thermal, compositional, and/or electrical gradients in the continuous phase, thermal gradients are convenient to use in controlled experimentation. On earth, due to interference from buoyant effects, it is difficult to study thermocapillary migration in sufficient detail. Also, the effects of a thermal gradient on the interactions among droplets are hard to study on Earth. Thus, an orbital facility for conducting experiments on the migration and interactions of fluid droplets in a continuous phase due to the action of a thermal gradient appears attractive.

Subramanian, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Process migration in UNIX environments

To support process migration in UNIX environments, the main problem is how to encapsulate the location dependent features of the system in such a way that a host independent virtual environment is maintained by the migration handlers on the behalf of each migrated process. An object-oriented approach is used to describe the interaction between a process and its environment. More specifically, environmental objects were introduced in UNIX systems to carry out the user-environment interaction. The implementation of the migration handlers is based on both the state consistency criterion and the property consistency criterion.

Lu, Chin↗

NASA NTRS1996

Thermocapillary Bubble Migration: Thermal Boundary Layers for Large Marangoni Numbers

The migration of an isolated gas bubble in an immiscible liquid possessing a temperature gradient is analyzed in the absence of gravity. The driving force for the bubble motion is the shear stress at the interface which is a consequence of the temperature dependence of the surface tension. The analysis is performed under conditions for which the Marangoni number is large, i.e. energy is transferred predominantly by convection. Velocity fields in the limit of both small and large Reynolds numbers are used. The thermal problem is treated by standard boundary layer theory. The outer temperature field is obtained in the vicinity of the bubble. A similarity solution is obtained for the inner temperature field. For both small and large Reynolds numbers, the asymptotic values of the scaled migration velocity of the bubble in the limit of large Marangoni numbers are calculated. The results show that the migration velocity has the same scaling for both low and large Reynolds numbers, but with a different coefficient. Higher order thermal boundary layers are analyzed for the large Reynolds number flow field and the higher order corrections to the migration velocity are obtained. Results are also presented for the momentum boundary layer and the thermal wake behind the bubble, for large Reynolds number conditions.

Balasubramaniam, R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space-based Remote Sensing: A Tool for Studying Bird Migration Across Multiple Scales

The study of bird migration on a global scale is one of the compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties. Space based technology offers new opportunities to shed understanding on the distribution and migration of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. Our working hypothesis is that individual organism biophysical models of energy and water balance, driven by satellite measurements of spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat, will help us to explain the variability in avian species richness and distribution. Further, these models provide an ecological forecasting tool for science and application users to visualize the possible consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration.

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Space-based Ornithology-Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. We have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit bird migration model that simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individual birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions. Our model incorporates biophysical constraints, individual bird energy status, bird behavior, and flight aerodynamics. We model the speed, direction, and timing of individual birds moving through a user specified Lagrangian grid. The model incorporates environmental properties including wind speed and direction, topography, dynamic hydrologic properties of the landscape, and environmental suitability. The model is driven by important variables estimated from satellite observations of the land surface, by data assimilation products from weather and climate models, and biological field data. We illustrate the use of the model to study the impact of both short- and long-term environmental variatios, e.g. climate, drought, anthropogenic, on migration timing (phenology), spatial pattern, and fitness (survival and reproductive success). We present several theoretical simulations of the spring migration of Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melanotos) in North America with emphasis on the Central flyway from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James↗

NASA NTRS2015

Simulation of Delamination-Migration and Core Crushing in a CFRP Sandwich Structure

Following the onset of damage caused by an impact load on a composite laminate structure, delaminations often form propagating outwards from the point of impact and in some cases can migrate via matrix cracks between plies as they grow. The goal of the present study is to develop an accurate finite element modeling technique for simulation of the delamination-migration phenomena in laminate impact damage processes. An experiment was devised where, under a quasi-static indentation load, an embedded delamination in the facesheet of a laminate sandwich specimen migrates via a transverse matrix crack and then continues to grow on a new ply interface. The quasistatic nature of the indentation results in structural behavior equivalent to that seen in low-velocity impact and also allows for highly detailed real time damage characterization. Several finite element damage simulation methods were investigated. Comparing the experimental results with those of the different models reveals certain modeling features that are important to include in a numerical simulation of delamination-migration and some that may be neglected.

McElroy, M.↗