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At least 37 records · Page 2

Transboundary sky waters in the Middle East: definition, challenges, and opportunities

Transboundary water disputes in the Middle East have increased in recent years due to growing constraints on water resources. Efforts to harvest more water from the atmosphere through weather intervention projects have exacerbated existing conflicts. Here, we propose that atmospheric water vapor should be recognized as a transboundary resource that involves substantial uncertainty. As such, this note serves as a starting point for characterizing various components of this concept, the knowledge gaps, and a roadmap to address those gaps. These efforts would reduce uncertainties and help integrate the sky water into transboundary water negotiations and collaborative understanding.

Amin Dezfuli↗

Metabolite, Protein, and Lipid Extraction (MPLEx): a method that simultaneously inactivates Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and allows analysis of multiple host cell components following infection

Mass spectrometry (MS)-based, integrated proteomics, metabolomics, and lipidomics (collectively, multi-omics) studies provide a very detailed snap shot of virus-induced changes to the host following infection and can lead to the identification of novel prophylactic and therapeutic targets for preventing or lessening disease severity. Multi-omics studies with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are challenging as the requirements of Biosafety Level 3 containment limit the numbers of samples that can be safely managed. To address these issues, the multi-omics sample preparation technique MPLEx (metabolite, protein, and lipid extraction) was developed to partition a single sample into three distinct parts (metabolites, proteins and lipids) for multi-omics analysis, while simultaneously inactivating MERS-CoV by solubilizing and disrupting the viral envelope and denaturing viral proteins. Here we describe the MPLEx protocol, highlight the step of inactivation, and describe the details of downstream processing, instrumental analysis of studies with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are challenging as the requirements of Biosafety Level 3 containment limit the numbers of samples that can be safely managed. To address these issues, the multi-omics sample preparation technique MPLEx (metabolite, protein, and lipid extraction) was developed to partition a single sample into three distinct parts (metabolites, proteins and lipids) for multi-omics analysis, while simultaneously inactivating MERS-CoV by solubilizing and disrupting the viral envelope and denaturing viral proteins. Here we describe the MPLEx protocol, highlight the step of inactivation, and describe the details of downstream processing, instrumental analysis of the three separate analytes and their subsequent informatics pipelines.

Nicora, Carrie D.↗

Assessment of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Air Pollution In the Middle East Using MERRA-2, CAMS Data Assimilation Products, and High-Resolution WRF-Chem Model Simulations

Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Operational Analysis (CAMS-OA), and a high-resolution regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to evaluate natural and anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) air pollution in the Middle East (ME) during 2015–2016. Two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) retrievals – combined product Deep Blue and Deep Target (MODIS-DB&DT) and Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) – and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations as well as in situ PM measurements for 2016 were used for validation of the WRF-Chem output and both assimilation products. MERRA-2 and CAMS-OA assimilate AOD observations. WRF-Chem is a free-running model, but dust emission in WRF-Chem is tuned to fit AOD and aerosol volume size distributions obtained from AERONET. MERRA-2 was used to construct WRF-Chem initial and boundary conditions both for meteorology and chemical and aerosol species. SO2 emissions in WRF-Chem are based on the novel OMI-HTAP SO2 emission dataset. The correlation with the AERONET AOD is highest for MERRA-2 (0.72–0.91), MAIAC (0.63–0.96), and CAMSOA (0.65–0.87), followed by MODIS-DB&DT (0.56–0.84) and WRF-Chem (0.43–0.85). However, CAMS-OA has a relatively high positive mean bias with respect to AERONET AOD. The spatial distributions of seasonally averaged AODs from WRF-Chem, assimilation products, and MAIAC are well correlated with MODIS-DB&DT AOD product. MAIAC has the highest correlation (R = 0.8), followed by MERRA-2 (R = 0.66), CAMS-OA (R = 0.65), and WRF-Chem (R = 0.61). WRF-Chem, MERRA-2, and MAIAC underestimate and CAMS-OA overestimates MODIS-DB&DT AOD. The simulated and observed PM concentrations might differ by a factor of 2 because it is more challenging for the model and the assimilation products to reproduce PM concentration measured within the city. Although aerosol fields in WRF-Chem and assimilation products are entirely consistent, WRF-Chem is preferable for analysis of regional air quality over the ME due to its higher spatial resolution and better SO2 emissions. The WRF-Chem’s PM background concentrations exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines over the entire ME. Mineral dust is the major contributor to PM (≈ 75%–95%) compared to other aerosol types. Near and downwind from the SO2 emission sources, non-dust aerosols (primarily sulfate) contribute up to 30% to PM(sub 2.5). The contribution of sea salt to PM in coastal regions can reach 5%. The contributions of organic matter, black carbon and organic carbon to PM over the Middle East are insignificant. In the major cities over the Arabian Peninsula, the 90th percentile of PM(sub 10) and PM(sub 2.5) (particles with diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm, respectively) daily mean surface concentrations exceed the corresponding Kingdom of Saudi Arabia air quality limits. The contribution of the non-dust component to PM(sub 2.5) is < 25%, which limits the emission control effect on air quality. The mitigation of the dust effect on air quality requires the development of environment-based approaches like growing tree belts around the cities and enhancing in-city vegetation cover. The WRF-Chem configuration presented in this study could be a prototype of a future air quality forecast system that warns the population against air pollution hazards.

Alexander Ukhov↗

Comparison of Dust Optical Depth From Multi-Sensor Products and MONARCH (Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry) Dust Reanalysis Over North Africa, the Middle East, and Europe

Aerosol reanalysis datasets are model-based, observationally constrained, continuous 3D aerosol fields with a relatively high temporal frequency that can be used to assess aerosol variations and trends, climate effects, and impacts on socioeconomic sectors, such as health. Here we compare and assess the recently published MONARCH (Multiscale Online Non-hydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry) high-resolution regional desert dust reanalysis over northern Africa, the Middle East, and Europe (NAMEE) with a combination of ground-based observations and space-based dust retrievals and products. In particular, we compare the total and coarse dust optical depth (DOD) from the new reanalysis with DOD products derived from MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), and IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) spaceborne instruments. Despite the larger uncertainties, satellite-based datasets provide a better geographical coverage than ground-based observations, and the use of different retrievals and products allows at least partially overcoming some single-product weaknesses in the comparison. Nevertheless, limitations and uncertainties due to the type of sensor, its operating principle, its sensitivity, its temporal and spatial resolution, and the methodology for retrieving or further deriving dust products are factors that bias the reanalysis assessment. We, therefore, also use ground-based DOD observations provided by 238 stations of the AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) located within the NAMEE region as a reference evaluation dataset. In particular, prior to the reanalysis assessment, the satellite datasets were evaluated against AERONET, showing moderate underestimations in the vicinities of dust sources and downwind regions, whereas small or significant overestimations, depending on the dataset, can be found in the remote regions. Taking these results into consideration, the MONARCH reanalysis assessment shows that total and coarse-DOD simulations are consistent with satellite- and ground-based data, qualitatively capturing the major dust sources in the area in addition to the dust transport patterns. Moreover, the MONARCH reanalysis reproduces the seasonal dust cycle, identifying the increased dust activity that occurred in the NAMEE region during spring and summer. The quantitative comparison between the MONARCH reanalysis DOD and satellite multi-sensor products shows that the reanalysis tends to slightly overestimate the desert dust that is emitted from the source regions and underestimate the transported dust over the outflow regions, implying that the model's removal of dust particles from the atmosphere, through deposition processes, is too effective. More specifically, small positive biases are found over the Sahara desert (0.04) and negative biases over the Atlantic Ocean and the Arabian Sea (−0.04), which constitute the main pathways of the long-range dust transport. Considering the DOD values recorded on average there, such discrepancies can be considered low, as the low relative bias in the Sahara desert (< 50 %) and over the adjacent maritime regions (< 100 %) certifies. Similarly, over areas with intense dust activity, the linear correlation coefficient between the MONARCH reanalysis simulations and the ensemble of the satellite products is significantly high for both total and coarse DOD, reaching 0.8 over the Middle East, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Arabian Sea and exceeding it over the African continent. Moreover, the low relative biases and high correlations are associated with regions for which large numbers of observations are available, thus allowing for robust reanalysis assessment.

Michail Mytilinaios↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

We present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. We inverted waveforms from 192 Global Centroid Moment Tensor earthquakes (MW 5.5-7.0) recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region. Spatial coverage of the available data is highly uneven due to earthquakes clustered along plate boundaries and sparse coverage of open seismic networks in the region. We considered three possible starting models: the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021); MEC-1 (Kaviani et al., 2020); and CSEM2.0 (Noe et al., 2023). Because the SPiRaL model provides good fits to the observed waveforms measured by the time-bandwidth product of selected windows in several period bands, provides all the necessary parameters and covers the entire domain we used it for the starting model with the period band 50-100 seconds. Inversion iterations proceeded using time-frequency phase misfits in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 seconds. Our final model, MESWA, provides improved waveform fits compared to the starting model for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation data set of 66 events. Two metrics of waveform fit (the time-frequency phase misfit used in the optimization and normalized L2 misfit) were both reduced by nearly 60% for both data sets and MESWA provides significantly larger misfit reductions relative to the SPiRaL model than the MEC-1 or CSEM models. We also find that MESWA provides a larger time-bandwidth product of selected windows indicating that more information content of the observed waveforms is explained by MESWA than the other models. Our new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of shear and compressional wavespeeds (v S and v P , respectively) with anisotropy covering the crust and uppermost mantle of a larger domain. MESWA has smaller scale-length features and tends to sharpen some features relative to the SPiRaL starting model. Examples include: low crustal v S in the TurkishIranian Plateau, Zagros Mountains, Afghan Central Blocks and Sulaiman Fold Belt; low mantle vSfollowing divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea Fault) margins of the Arabian Plate; low and high v S in the mantle beneath the Arabian Shield and Platform, respectively. Low vS is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Arabian Peninsula, the so-called Mecca-Madina-Nafud (MMN) Line. Positive anisotropy (v SH > v SV ) is inferred for asthenospheric depths across the region except where up/downwelling may influence fabric alignment (e.g. Afar, Red Sea, Arabian Shield). Elevated vS tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran. MESWA resembles the SPiRaL model in its long-wavelength structure, but enhances shorter wavelengths features on the order of 200 km and smaller. The resulting model could be used for as a starting model for further improvements, say using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not openly available or smaller-scale studies targeting shorter period waveforms. The model also could be used for source characterization and moment tensor inversion to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Crustal and Upper Mantle Structure of the Middle East and Southwest Asia for Improved Waveform Simulations Using Openly Available Broadband Data

Here we present a new model of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds for the crust and upper mantle of a broad region of the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESWA) derived from adjoint waveform tomography. The new model enables fully 3D simulations of complete three-component waveforms and provides improved fits that were not possible with previous models. We inverted over 32,000 waveforms from 192 earthquakes recorded by over 1000 openly available broadband seismic stations from permanent and temporary networks in the region with highly uneven coverage. Inversion iterations proceeded from the period band 50–100 s in six stages and 54 total iterations reducing the minimum period to 30 s. Our final model, MESWA, improves waveform fits compared to the starting and other models for both the data used in the inversion and an independent validation set of 66 events. Restitution tests indicate that the model resolves features in the central part of the model to depths of about 150 km. The new model reveals tectonic features imaged by other studies and methods but in a new holistic model of anisotropic shear and compressional wavespeeds (V S and V P , respectively) covering a larger domain with smaller scale length and amplified features. Examples include low crustal V S in the Tethyan belt and low mantle VS following divergent (Gulf of Aden, Red Sea) and transform (Dead Sea fault) margins of the Arabian plate. Low V S is imaged below Cenozoic volcanic centers of the Mecca–Madina–Nafud Line, Arabian Peninsula, and the Türkiye–Iran border region. Elevated V S tracks Makran subduction under southeast Iran with near vertical dip. MESWA could be used as a starting model for further improvements, say, using waveforms from in-country seismic networks that are not currently openly available and/or smaller-scale studies targeting a shorter period. The model could be used to improve earthquake hazard studies and nuclear explosion monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Intra-Host Populations Are Characterized by Numerous High Frequency Variants

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging human pathogen related to SARS virus. In vitro studies indicate this virus may have a broad host range suggesting an increased pandemic potential. Genetic and epidemiological evidence indicate camels serve as a reservoir for MERS virus but the mechanism of cross species transmission is unclear and many questions remain regarding the susceptibility of humans to infection. Deep sequencing data was obtained from the nasal samples of three camels that had been experimentally infected with a human MERS-CoV isolate. A majority of the genome was covered and average coverage was greater than 12,000x depth. Although only 5 mutations were detected in the consensus sequences, 473 intrahost single nucleotide variants were identified. Lastly, many of these variants were present at high frequencies and could potentially influence viral phenotype and the sensitivity of detection assays that target these regions for primer or probe binding.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Incorporating the interdependencies between water, energy and food (WEF) within an integrated approach of planning and management could help nations worldwide to address sustainability concerns. This is a topic of great importance for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water is a very limited resource. In this study, we develop an analytical framework to analyze the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA region to inform the formulation of integrated strategies for water, energy and food activities. Our approach is based on an integrated assessment model for the MENA region, which explicitly represents WEF sectors within an economic framework, in tandem with a set of relevant scenarios addressing three key dimensions (socioeconomics, climate and water-management). Using this framework, our study analyzes the current and projected status of water resources in the region, and the potential implications for the agriculture and electricity sectors. Our scenarios demonstrate that water scarcity worsens by the end of the 21st century in most MENA countries, mostly due to growing demands. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the other hand, and to a lesser extent, water-saving technologies and fuel-switching in the power sector play a key role in mitigating the effects of water scarcity on electricity generation in some parts of the MENA region. Our analysis then underscores the need to reduce the dependence of MENA’s agricultural and energy sectors on water, and transition to renewable energies to reduce water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing the Effects of Irrigation in the Middle East and North Africa Using Remotely Sensed Vegetation and Water Cycle Observations

A majority of the countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region suffer from water scarcity due in part to widespread rainfall deficits, unprecedented levels of water demand, and the inefficient use of renewable freshwater resources. Since a majority of the water withdrawal in the MENA is used for irrigation, there is a desperate need for improved understanding of irrigation practices and agricultural water use in the region. Here, satellite-derived irrigation maps and crop-type agricultural data are applied to the Land Data Assimilation System for the MENA region (MENA LDAS), designed to provide regional, gridded fields of hydrological states and fluxes relevant for water resources assessments. Within MENA-LDAS, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulates the location, timing, and amount of water applied through agricultural irrigation practices over the region from 2002-2012. In addition to simulating the irrigation impact on evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff, we also investigate regional changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) observed from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and simulated by CLSM.

Bolten, John↗

The Middle East. Domestic sufficiency of fossil fuel resources

In this paper, we’ve compared energy production and consumption across the broader Middle East, paying special attention to three different countries; Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producers (second in the CIA World Factbook ranking of crude oil producing countries), with a growing population in the mid-range (47th in the world, according to the CIA World Factbook, and fifth among the nations in this region), a large GDP and GDP per capita (15th in the world, second in this region in GDP, and 21st in GDP per capita in the world, just behind the US at 19th); Qatar, the world’s fourth largest producer of natural gas, with a small native population (and a relatively large foreign labor contingent) that is very wealthy (with the world’s highest GDP per capita, more than twice that of the US); and Egypt, the most populous nation in the region (with the world’s 16th largest population), but relatively poor (with a GDP per capita of about a fifth that of the US and a twelfth that of Qatar); Egypt is a significant energy producer – 29th in the world in crude oil production and 17th in natural gas production – but production has stalled or declined in recent years, and domestic consumption has overtaken production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Towards Effective Drought Monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) Region: Implications From Assimilating Leaf Area Index and Soil Moisture Into the Noah-Mp Land Surface Model for Morocco

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced more frequent and severe drought events in recent decades, leading to increasingly pressing concerns over already strained food and water security. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is thus critical to support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. Here we investigate the potential for assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture observations to improve the representation of the overall hydrological and carbon cycles and drought by an advanced land surface model. The results reveal that assimilating soil moisture does not meaningfully improve model representation of the hydrological and biospheric processes for this region, but instead it degrades the simulation of the interannual variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes, mainly due to model weaknesses in representing prognostic phenology. However, assimilating LAI leads to greater improvement, especially for transpiration and carbon fluxes, by constraining the timing of simulated vegetation growth response to evolving climate conditions. LAI assimilation also helps to correct for the erroneous interaction between the prognostic phenology and irrigation during summertime, effectively reducing a large positive bias in ET and carbon fluxes. Independently assimilating LAI or soil moisture alters the categorization of drought, with the differences being greater for more severe drought categories. We highlight the vegetation representation in response to changing land use and hydroclimate as one of the key processes to be captured for building a successful drought early warning system for the MENA region.

Wanshu Nie↗

Large-scale transport of a CO-enhanced air mass from Europe to the Middle East

On November 14, 1981, the shuttle-borne Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) experiment observed a carbon monoxide (CO) enhanced air mass in the middle troposphere over the Middle East. The primary source of this polluted air was estimated by constructing adiabatic isentropic trajectories backwards from the MAPS measurement location over a 36 h period. The isentropic diagnostics indicate that CO-enhanced air was transported southeastward over the Mediterranean from an organized synoptic-scale weather regime, albeit of moderate intensity, influencing central Europe on November 12. Examination of the evolving synoptic scale vertical velocity and precipitation patterns during this period, in conjuction with Meteosat visible, infrared, and water vapor imagery, suggests that the presence of this disturbed weather system over Europe may have created upward transport of CO-enhanced air between the boundary-layer and midtropospheric levels, and subsequent entrainment in the large-scale northwesterly jet stream flow over Europe and the Mediterranean.

Connors, V. S.↗

Improving Drought Monitoring for the Middle East and North Africa Region via Data Assimilation Using the NASA Land Information System (LIS)

Food and water security become an increasingly pressing concern for countries within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under climate change. Droughts are among the most important issues facing this region in both economic and social terms, which have become much more severe in recent decades. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is, therefore, critical to support drought impact assessment and risk management. This presentation describes the effort to improve the simulation of hydrological conditions for such semi-arid environment by Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) via assimilating remotely sensed leaf area index and soil moisture in the presence of irrigation. Multi-source satellite evapotranspiration products are used to evaluate the model performance under the impact of the choice of met-forcings, the presence of irrigation and data assimilation. The improved model configuration is aimed to deliver a better soil moisture estimation for the composite drought indicator (CDI) for drought monitoring and to provide a better initial condition in support for hydrological drought forecasting.

Wanshu Nie↗

Crustal and uppermost mantle structure in the Middle East: assessing constraints provided by jointly modelling Ps and Sp receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves

Seismic velocity models are found, along with uncertainty estimates, for 11 sites in the Middle East by jointly modelling Ps and Sp receiver functions and surface (Rayleigh) wave group velocity dispersion. The approach performs a search for models that satisfy goodness-of-fit criteria guided by a variant of simulated annealing and uses statistical tools to assess these products of searches. These tools, a parameter correlation matrix and marginal posterior probability density (PPD) function, allow us to evaluate quantitatively the constraints that each data type imposes on model parameters and to identify portions of each model that are well-constrained relative to other portions. This joint modelling technique, which we call ‘multi-objective optimization for seismology’, does not require a good starting solution, although such a model can be incorporated easily, if available, and can reduce the computation time significantly. Applying the process described above to broadband seismic data reveals that crustal thickness varies from 15 km beneath Djibouti (station ATD) to 45 km beneath Saudi Arabia (station RAYN). A pronounced low velocity zone for both Vp and Vs is present at a depth of ~12 km beneath station KIV located in northern part of greater Caucasus, which may be due to the presence of a relatively young volcano. Similarly, we also noticed a 6-km-thick low velocity zone for Vp beginning at 20 km depth beneath seismic station AGIN, on the Anatolian plateau, while positive velocity gradients prevail elsewhere in eastern Turkey. Beneath station CSS, located in Cyprus, an anomalously slow layer is found in the uppermost mantle, which may indicate the presence of altered lithospheric material. Crustal P- and S-wave velocities beneath station D2, located in the northeastern portion of central Zagros, range between 5.2–6.2 and 3.2–3.8 km s -1 , respectively. Finally, in Oman, we find a Moho depth of 34.0 ± 1.0 km and 25.0 ± 1.0 to 30.0 ± 1.0 km beneath stations S02 and S04, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Well‐to‐wheels analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for passenger vehicles in Middle East and North Africa

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are widely considered a pathway to achieve low carbon mobility. BEVs emit zero emissions from the tailpipe, but their life cycle carbon reduction compared to gasoline vehicles varies based on primary energy sources, electricity generation, and use efficiency. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is an area rich in fossil fuels, meriting a detailed comparison between the emissions from BEV and other powertrains. We developed a MENA‐specific life cycle model that estimates well‐to‐wheel (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger transport with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles, and BEVs. MENA's average WTW GHG emissions for all supply chain steps including combustion emissions from vehicle operation are 767 g/kWh and 84 g CO 2 eq/MJ for electricity and gasoline, respectively, but are highly variable due to heterogeneity in upstream supply chains. The use of hybrid gasoline ICEVs provides the largest emission reduction opportunity for existing vehicle fleets in 9 of the 16 MENA countries. For these nine countries, replacing gasoline ICEVs with HEVs could, on average, reduce country‐level life cycle GHG emissions by 47%. There is a similar emission reduction opportunity for 14 of the 16 MENA countries when normalizing vehicle efficiencies irrespective of the powertrain shares and other trends in existing vehicle fleets. Future scenario analysis shows that BEVs would have the lowest WTW GHG emissions among all powertrains in most MENA countries only if significantly reduced electricity transmission losses and cleaner grid mix are realized, although a high cost of infrastructure developments is expected.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2D Variations in Coda Amplitudes in the Middle East

Here, coda amplitudes have proven to be a stable feature of seismograms, allowing one to reliably measure magnitudes for moderate to large-sized (M≥3) earthquakes over broad regions. Since smaller (M<3) earthquakes are only recorded at higher frequencies where we find larger interstation scatter, amplitude and magnitude estimates for these events are more variable, regional, and path dependent. In this study, we investigate coda amplitude measurements in the Middle East for 2-D variations in attenuation structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Renewable hydrogen horizon: Geospatial techno-economic feasibility and life cycle greenhouse gas analysis in the Middle East and North Africa

Renewable hydrogen is receiving increasing attention for its potential as a flexible energy carrier in sectors such as transportation and industry. Specific cost and carbon intensity (CI) of renewable hydrogen production vary largely based on the location, owing to differences in renewable energy resources, as well as the supply chain dynamics. This study maps the techno-economic and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of renewable hydrogen production in the Middle East and North Africa region, leveraging abundant solar and wind resources. The work investigates the variability in hydrogen costs and CI, optimally sizing proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers to account for partial and cyclic loading, and explores standalone versus grid-connected systems. PEM capacity ratios of 52 %–63 % for photovoltaic (PV) systems and 28 %–82 % for wind systems were identified as optimal, with hydrogen production costs ranging from $\$3.8$-$\$4.8$/kg for PV and $2.0-$7.0/kg for wind. CIs span from 1.9 to 3.7 kg CO 2 ,eq /kg H 2 for PV and 0.4–7.7 kg CO 2,eq /kg H 2 for wind systems. The study highlights significant cost and CI reductions achievable with technological advancements and co-product revenue from oxygen and excess electricity sales.

Carbon Intensity↗

Applying Waveform Correlation and Waveform Template Metadata to Aftershocks in the Middle East to Reduce Analyst Workload

Organizations that monitor for underground nuclear explosive tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize recurring events such as aftershocks to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is a technique that is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events. In this study, we apply waveform correlation in combination with template event metadata to two aftershock sequences in the Middle East to seek corroborating detections from multiple stations in the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. We use waveform templates from stations that are within regional distance of aftershock sequences to detect subsequent events, then use template event metadata to discover what stations are likely to record corroborating arrival waveforms for recurring aftershock events at the same location, and develop additional waveform templates to seek corroborating detections. We evaluate the results with the goal of determining whether applying the method to aftershock events will improve the choice of waveform correlation detections that lead to bulletin-worthy events and reduction of analyst effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗