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Modeling the Swift BAT Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. (2014) is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of approximately greater than 97% (approximately less than 3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux which has an accuracy of 89:6% (10:4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of eta(sub 0) approximately 0.48(+0.41/-0.23) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) with power-law indices of eta(sub 1) approximately 1.7(+0.6/-0.5) and eta(sub 2) approximately -5.9(+5.7/-0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z(sub 1) approximately 6.8(+2.8/-3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting. The code used in this is analysis is publicly available online.

gamma rays: general

Local density maxima - Progenitors of structure

Beginning with a short review of the observational data and of some previous theoretical ideas and numerical simulations, the question is addressed of how the large-scale structure that emerges around local density maxima depends on the nature of the primordial density perturbations field. The density contrast profile around local maxima is given, to a good approximation, by the primordial two-point correlation function. The mean number density of objects of a given core mass is calculated as a function of the primordial power spectrum, p(k). In an open universe, rich clusters should have halos steeper than galactic haloes. The observed structure is found to be consistent with omega-sub-zero less than 1.0 and n = -1.

Hoffman, Y.

Geocoronal structure - The effects of solar radiation pressure and the plasmasphere interaction

The theory of planetary exospheres is extended to incorporate solar radiation pressure in a rigorous manner, and an evaporative geocoronal prototype (classical, motionless exobase) is constructed using Liouville's theorem. Model calculations for density and kinetic temperature at points along the earth-sun axis (solar and antisolar directions) reveal an extensive satellite component, comprising approximately 2/3 of the total hydrogen density near 10 earth radii, and a temperature profile suggestive of an isotropic quasi-Maxwellian velocity distribution for the bound component. A geotail is also evident as an enhancement of the density at local midnight compared to local noon that increases outward (from approximately 25 percent at 10 earth radii to over 60 percent at 20 earth radii). Additional mechanisms acting upon the geocorona alter the basic evaporative case in notable ways. Solar ionization has been included in a simple fashion; the effect is to partially deplete the density without otherwise altering the structure. Interaction with a simple plasmasphere via the Boltzmann equation results in 'heating' the geocorona and enhancing the escape flux at the expense of the density of the bound component, an effect not appreciated in earlier studies; the geotail survives this interaction.

Bishop, J.

Primordial nucleosynthesis and Dirac's large numbers hypothesis

Consideration is given to the analysis of Falik (1979) which attempted to show that the cosmological model proposed by Canuto and Hsieh (1978) in which the gravitational constant varies with time contradicts observations of primordial helium. It is shown that the analysis was based on the assumptions that (1) the energy density of radiation in local thermodynamic equilibrium is approximately equal to the fourth power of the equilibrium temperature, where the product of the equilibrium temperature with the scale factor of the Robertson-Walker metric is constant, and (2) the gravitational constant is approximately equal to the inverse of the time even at early cosmological epochs. These assumptions are demonstrated to be invalid in the scale covariant theory of gravitation used to develop the model, thus negating the conclusion that the Canuto and Hsieh model excludes the primordial synthesis of helium.

Canuto, V.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and Database for Mission Design

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many Mars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model, while above 80 km it is based on Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter. Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science and Thermal Emission Spectrometer data. RS data from 2480 profiles were used, covering latitudes 75 deg S to 72 deg N, surface to approximately 40 km, for seasons ranging from areocentric longitude of Sun (Ls) = 70-160 deg and 265-310 deg. RS data spanned a range of local times, mostly 0-9 hours and 18-24 hours. For interests in aerocapture and precision landing, comparisons concentrated on atmospheric density. At a fixed height of 20 km, RS density varied by about a factor of 2.5 over ranges of latitudes and Ls values observed. Evaluated at matching positions and times, these figures show average RSMars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-)0.05, except at heights above approximately 25 km and latitudes above approximately 50 deg N. Average standard deviation of RSMars-GRAM density ratio was 6%. TES data were used covering surface to approximately 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of a Mars global dust storm). Depending on season, TES data covered latitudes 85 deg S to 85 deg N. Most TES data were concentrated near local times 2 hours and 14 hours. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (greater than 45 deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approximately 90 and 180 deg. Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approximately 2.5% for all data, or approximately 1-4%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for local time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about three times the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Justus, C. G.

Probe of the Nearby Interstellar Medium by the Vacant Line of Sight to Beta Cma

The line of sight to Beta CM a was probed by Copernicus observations. This particular line of sight is remarkable for the low mean densities. The density was found to be bar N sub H approximately .002/cu cm. Two separate regions were distinguished: (1) A local nearby HI region extends over a few parsecs from the Sun with a density of the order of 0.1/cu cm and a temperature of 11000 to 12500 K; (2) An HII region lies somewhere beyond the HI region and is spread over about 60pc. Its total hydrogen mean density is of the same order as the HI region, i.e., of approximately 0.1 cu cm and it contains only elements in low ionization state. All the ata are coherent with the picture of a cloud in ionization equilibrium at T approximately 23000 deg K.

Gry, C.

A nonlocal theory of an electrostatic sinusoidal density drift instability

The stability of space plasmas in which the macroscopic variables vary in the direction x perpendicular to the magnetic field is usually studied by means of the local approximation, in which the fluctuating potential is assumed to be independent of x. To remove this approximation, a nonlocal problem is studied in which the background density, and hence the fluctuating potentials, are periodic in x. From the linear Vlasov/Poisson equations, a set of coupled, linear, homogeneous, algebraic equations relating the Fourier amplitudes of the eigensolution is derived. The equations are solved numerically and a hierarchy of exact eigenmodes characterized by different growth rates and spatial structures is found. At points where the density gradient is locally zero, the mode amplitude is generally several orders of magnitude lower than the peak amplitude. The dependence of these solutions on the parameters which define the background density perturbation is studied and a correspondence between these nonlocal results and those obtained with the local approximation is demonstrated.

Thomsen, M. F.

Numerical calculations of high-altitude differential charging: Preliminary results

A two dimensional simulation program was constructed in order to obtain theoretical predictions of floating potential distributions on geostationary spacecraft. The geometry was infinite-cylindrical with angle dependence. Effects of finite spacecraft length on sheath potential profiles can be included in an approximate way. The program can treat either steady-state conditions or slowly time-varying situations, involving external time scales much larger than particle transit times. Approximate, locally dependent expressions were used to provide space charge, density profiles, but numerical orbit-following is used to calculate surface currents. Ambient velocity distributions were assumed to be isotropic, beam-like, or some superposition of these.

Laframboise, J. G.

Generation of Alfven-ion cyclotron waves on auroral field lines in the presence of heavy ions

Observation of electromagnetic waves in the low-altitude auroral zone at frequencies between the proton and helium gyrofrequencies suggests that Alfven-ion cyclotron waves modified by the presence of helium ions are being excited. Estimates of the growth rates for this mode indicate that the auroral electron beam can provide the free energy for the instability. The effect of the heavy ions is to decrease the group velocity of the waves, leading to larger convective growth. Theoretical wave spectra are computed in the local approximation, which assumes that the gradient scale lengths in density and magnetic field are constant over the ray paths. Narrow banded spectral peaks similar to observations may be produced when the thickness of the electron beam is small (200 m at 3000 km altitude). Narrow beams also limit growth of whistler mode waves, which compete for the free energy of the electron beam.

Lysak, R. L.

Relaxation and approximate factorization methods for the unsteady full potential equation

The unsteady form of the full potential equation is solved in conservation form, using implicit methods based on approximate factorization and relaxation schemes. A local time linearization for density is introduced to enable solution to the equation in terms of phi, the velocity potential. A novel flux-biasing technique is applied to generate proper forms of the artificial viscosity, to treat hyperbolic regions with shocks and sonic lines present. The wake is properly modeled by accounting not only for jumps in phi, but also for jumps in higher derivatives of phi obtained from requirements of density continuity. The far field is modeled using the Riemann invariants to simulate nonreflecting boundary conditions. Results are presented for flows over airfoils, cylinders, and spheres. Comparisons are made with available Euler and full potential results.

Shankar, V.

The local density of halo giants

A new estimate of the local density of halo giants - 36 +/- 7 with M(V) less than 0.5 per cu kpc - is presented. This number is derived from an objective-prism survey for nearby metal-weak stars, and so is free from many of the assumptions needed to derive the local halo density in the traditional way, from high proper motion surveys. This number agrees well with estimates of the local density of halo horizontal-branch stars, but is approximately a factor of 2 smaller than the density derived by Bahcall and Casertano (1986). This may be due to the inclusion of some thick disk stars in their proper-motion selected sample. The halo density derived from giants can be expressed as a disk-to-halo ratio of 850:1 (+/- 35 percent). Using these results, a simple model is built to predict numbers of halo giants in specified directions in the Galaxy. It is shown that it performs much better than the Bahcall-Soniera model, in the specific case of halo giants. The surface brightness due to the halo at the solar radius is calculated to be 27.7 V magnitudes per sq arcsec, if the Galaxy was viewed from the outside, edge-on, thus raising the possibility of detecting light from halo field stars in other galaxies similar to our own.

Morrison, Heather L.

Shadowing the soft x-ray background by infrared cirrus: A study of selected regions

Using the ROSAT and IRAS data achieves, we studied shadows in the diffuse 0.25 keV background toward infrared cirrus clouds to infer the distribution of the hot interstellar medium (ISM). Surprisingly, we found that anticorrelation between infrared emission from cirrus clouds and background x-ray intensity was present in all five galactic latitude (b approx. greater than 25 deg) fields that we selected. In two fieds, the anticorrelation is more than 30% deep, and shows particularly convincing evidence that they are due to x-ray absorption by the clouds. Assuming an average density for the local x-ray-emitting gas (T approximately 10(exp 6) K), we estimated the minimum distances to the clouds based on our best-fit x-ray intensities originating in front of the clouds. These distances are in the range of 60 to 160 pc. Therefore, we conclude that there are a considerable number of degree-size, x-ray-absorbing gas clouds at approximately 10(exp 2) pc and that large amounts of x-ray-emitting gas exist in regions beyonds these clouds.

Wang, Q. Daniel

Epsilon Canis Majoris and the ionization of the local cloud

The Lyman continuum radiation from the brightest extreme ultraviolet (EUV) source, the B2 II star epsilon Canis Majoris (Adara), is so intense that it dominates the local stellar EUV radiation field at wavelengths longer than 450 A and therefore sets a lower limit to the ionization of hydrogen in the Local Cloud. Using the EUV (70-730 A) spectrum of epsilon CMa taken with the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (EUVE) and simple models that extrapolate this spectrum to the Lyman edge at 912 A, we have determined the local interstellar hydrogen photionizatin parameter Gamma solely from epsilon CMa to be 1.1 x 10(exp -15)/s. This fiugre is a factor of 7 greater than previous estimates of Gamma calculated for all nearby stars combined (Bruhweiler & Cheng 1988). Using measured values of the density and temperature of neutral interstellar hydrogen gas in the Local Cloud, we derive a particle density of ionized hydrogen n(H(+)) and electrons n(sub e) of 0.015-0.019/cu cm assuming ionization equilibrium and a helium ionization fraction of less than 20%. These values correspond to a hydrogen ionizatin fraction, chi(sub H) from 19% to 15%, respectively. The range of these derived quantities is due to the uncertainties in the local values of the neutral hydrogen and helium interstellar densities derived from both (1) solar backscatter measurements of Ly alpha lines of hydrogen and helium (1216 and 584 A), and (2) the average neutral densities along the line of sight to nearby stars. The local proton density produced by epsilon CMa is enough to allow the ionization mechanism of Ripken & Fahr (1983) to work at the heliopause and explain the discrepancy between the neutral hydrogen density derived from solar backscatter measurements and line-of-sight averages to nearby stars. A large value of electron density in the Local Cloud of n(sub e) is approximately 0.3-0.7/cu cm (T = 7000 K) has recently been reported by Lallement et al. (1994) using observations of Mg II and Mg I toward Sirius A. We show that if such a high value exists, it cannot result from the EUV stellar radiation field and, therefore, must be due to a strong diffuse source of EUV radiation.

Vallerga, J. V.

A localized excess of diffuse gamma radiation

Using archival Energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) gamma-ray data and atomic hydrogen (H I) column densities derived from 21 cm radio observations, we have found a large irregular region in the northern Galactic hemisphere extending from (l approximately 90 deg, b approximately 52 deg) to (l approximately 45 deg, b approximately 77 deg) with a significant enhancement in the gamma-ray emissivity compared to the surrounding sky. The region contains no previously identified gamma-ray point sources. The emission may arise from a localized enhancement in cosmic-ray density or from the presence of matter other than H I. If the emission is due to unseen matter, a column density enhancement equivalent to approximately 2 x 10(exp 20) H-atoms/sq cm is required.

Chen, A.

Feeding and Feedback in the Powerful Radio Galaxy 3C 120

We present a spectral analysis of a 200-kilosecond observation of the broad-line radio galaxy 3C 120, performed with the high-energy transmission grating spectrometer on board the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. We find (i) a neutral absorption component intrinsic to the source with a column density of log N (sub H) equals 20.67 plus or minus 0.05 square centimeters; (ii) no evidence for a warm absorber (WA) with an upper limit on the column density of just log N (sub H) less than 19.7 square centimeters, assuming the typical ionization parameter log xi approximately equal to 2.5 ergs per second per centimeter; the WA may instead be replaced by (iii) a hot emitting gas with a temperature kT approximately equal to 0.7 kiloelectronvolts observed as soft X-ray emission from ionized Fe L-shell lines, which may originate from a kiloparsec-scale shocked bubble inflated by the active galactic nucleus (AGN) wind or jet with a shock velocity of about 1000 kilometers per second determined by the emission line width; (iv) a neutral Fe K alpha line and accompanying emission lines indicative of a Compton-thick cold reflector with a low reflection fraction R approximately equal to 0.2, suggesting a large opening angle of the torus; (v) a highly ionized Fe XXV emission feature indicative of photoionized gas with an ionization parameter log xi equal to 3.75 (sup plus 0.38) (sub minus 0.27) ergs per second per centimeter and a column density of log N (sub H) greater than 22 square centimeters localized within approximately 2 pc from the X-ray source; and (vi) possible signatures of a highly ionized disk wind. Together with previous evidence for intense molecular line emission, these results indicate that 3C 120 is likely a late-state merger undergoing strong AGN feedback.

black hole physics – galaxies: active – line:

Explosions of infalling comets in Jupiter's atmosphere

In view of the expected collision of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (1993e) with Jupiter in 1994 July, we calculate basic properties of the initial interaction for a simplified Jovian atmosphere. The comet is expected to impact Jupiter at 60 km/sec and at an angle of 45 deg to the zenith. The shock wave generated by the bolide should be optically thick once it has penetrated to an atmospheric density approximately 10(exp -6) gr/cm(exp 3), and we calculate the post-shock conditions assuming local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) for shock velocities v(sub sh) in the range 10 to 60 km/sec and preshock densities rho(sub a) = 10(exp -6) to 10(exp -2) gr/cm(exp 3). Our shock calculations include molecular hydrogen, atomic hydrogen, ionized hydrogen, neutral helium, and singly ionized helium. Even at the highest shock velocity, the gas is only partially ionized and the postshock temperature rises with preshock density in order to maintain the ionization. The value of the effective shock adiabatic index gamma(sub sh) varies from 1.17 (at low v(sub sh) and rho(sub a) to 1.40 (at high v(sub sh) and rho(sub a). The ablation rate is limited by the radiative flux that reaches the bolide surface. We argue that the ablated gas does not efficiently transfer its kinetic energy to the atmosphere, and it ultimately slows in a similar fashion to the comet material. As the bolide initially falls through the atmosphere, the character of the shock emission changes. At rho(sub a) approximately 10(exp -8) gr/cm (exp 3), the gas is optically thin and we expect line emission; in the optical spectrum, Balmer emission is expected from the shocked atmosphere and low-ionization metal lines from ablated cometary material. At rho(sub a) approximately 10(exp -6) gr/m(exp 3), the shocked gas is optically thick and the shock front near the bolide produces a blackbody spectrum. The temperature is favorable for ultraviolet (1000 to 3000 A) emission and the luminosity may be approximately 5 x 10(exp 23) ergs/sec for approximately 0.6 sec for a bolide 1 km in radius. At rho(sub a) approximately 10(exp -4) gr/cm(exp 3), the bolide has passed below the ultraviolet photosphere. The shock front emits considerable ionizing radiation, but it is absorbed in a narrow preshock region. The bolometric correction for the optical luminosity is large and we expect a 3000 to 8000 A luminosity of approximately 3 x 10(exp 23) ergs/sec for approximately 1 sec. The optical emission is strongly peaked in the vicinity of the bolide. The bolide does have a somewhat less luminous, optically thick trail extending greater than or equal to 10 km, but the radiation is characterized by a temperature of 4000 to 5000 K. From the fragmentation model of Chyba, Thomas, & Zahnle (1993), the bolide deposits most of its kinetic energy at rho(sub a) approximately 10(exp -3) gr/cm(exp 3) and this is the effective explosion site. The shock wave from such an explosion can move up about one density scale height. We examine the breakout of the shock front from the Jovian atmosphere and find that the shock acceleration in the decreasing density region is slow, so that the energy flux in the shock front is small. Higher velocities might be generated by shock acceleration along the channel left by the bolide if the shock motion can occur before the channel closes off as a result of radiative cooling. Hot gas created by the explosion ultimately rises due to buoyancy on a timescale of a minute. The luminosity is highest when the bubble first rises into the optically thin part of the atmosphere and may be approximately 1 x 10(exp 25) ergs/sec in the near-infrared. Roughly 1% of the initial bolide energy may be radiated in this way; the rest of the energy is lost to sound waves from the initial explosion and to work done by the bubble on the surrounding atmosphere.

Chevalier, Roger A.

Ultraviolet observations of local gas

From satellite measurements of ultraviolet spectra of stars, an average density of approximately 1.1/cu cm for hydrogen atoms, in both atomic and molecular form, is estimated for regions of space along the galactic plane within about 1 kpc of the sun. About 20% of the atoms are bound in molecular form although this figure is uncertain since the ultraviolet measurements avoid the very dense interstellar clouds. Discrete values for this percentage are observed to vary markedly; regions with less than average density seem to have fractional abundances of H2 several orders of magnitude lower than average. A ratio of CO/H is observed for regions in front of stars observed by the Copernicus satellite.

Jenkins, E. B.

Ultraviolet observations of local gas

From satellite measurements of ultraviolet spectra of stars, an average density of approximately 1.1 cu m/sec for hydrogen atoms, in both atomic and molecular form, is estimated for regions of space along the galactic plane within about 1 kpc of the sun. About 20 percent of the atoms are bound in molecular form, although this figure is uncertain because the ultraviolet measurements avoid the very dense interstellar clouds. Discrete values for this percentage are observed to vary markedly; regions with less than average density appear to have fractional abundances of H2 several orders of magnitude lower than average. A ratio of CO/H which ranges from 10 to the minus 9th to 10 to the minus 6th power is observed for regions in front of stars observed by the Copernicus satellite.

Jenkins, E. B.